Labour lead on economy and public services as Conservative share falls to record low
- Dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister reaches his worst score.
- Though Keir Starmer's satisfaction ratings also drop, and most think he is indecisive.
London, UK. The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 21st to 28th February 2024, explores public attitudes to the various parties and their leaders in the run up to the next General Election, including which party is best on key issues that will decide their vote. This month's results also explore attitudes to the economy, public services and spending ahead of the budget, including public satisfaction with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and whether Hunt or Labour's Rachel Reeves would make the most capable Chancellor.
Voting intention
- Labour 47% (-2 pts), Conservatives 20% (-7), Liberal Democrats 9% (+2), Green 8% (+1), Reform UK 8% (+4), Other 7% (+2). Making Labour's lead 27 points, up from 22 in January.
- The Conservatives' share of 20% is the lowest ever recorded by Ipsos in our regular Political Monitor series, which has run since 1978. Previous Conservative low points were 22% under John Major in December 1994 and May 1995, 23% in July 1997, shortly after Labour's landslide win and 23 per cent in December 2022.
- Half (50%) of those with a voting intention say they have definitely decided who to vote for – but 45% may change their mind. There are also signs of a growing enthusiasm gap, with only 62% of Conservatives saying they certain to vote, vs 76% of Labour voters (which feeds through into the headline voting figure) – last month the gap was just 4 points.
Leader satisfaction ratings
- 83% are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country (+5 pts from January). 10% are satisfied (-3 pt).
- 19% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (-1 from January) and 73% say they are dissatisfied (+7). His net rating of -54 is a record low for Mr Sunak.
- 54% of current Conservative voters are satisfied with the job Sunak is doing (-1 point) and 37% are dissatisfied (+2).
- Keir Starmer's ratings have also fallen since January. 29% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-1) and 55% are dissatisfied (+7). His net score of -26 is only slightly above his lowest finding of -29 in May 2021.
Most important issues
- When asked which issues are likely to be the most important when deciding how to vote, the top issues for the public are the NHS (30%), inflation / rising prices (22%), the economy (22%) and asylum/immigration (15%).
- For Labour voters the top issue is the NHS but for Conservatives the top issues are immigration and the economy.
Best party on key issues
- Labour are seen as having the best policies on managing the economy by a margin of 31% to the Conservative score of 23%. In October the parties were neck and neck.
- On taxation, Labour are seen as having the best policies over the Conservatives by a margin of 32% to 19%.
- 40% think Labour have the best policies for people in work, 15% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
- 43% think Labour have the best policies for public services in general, 11% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
- 35% think Labour have the best policies for the level of public spending, 16% think the Conservatives have the best policies.
- 29% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain's businesses, 25% think Labour have the best policies. In September 2021 the Conservatives lead on this by 41% to 17%.
- 30% think the Conservatives have the best policies for Britain's financial services sector, also known as the City, 22% think Labour have the best policies.
Keir Starmer
- 37% think Keir Starmer has changed Labour for the better (down 11 points from February 2021), 13% for the worse (+9) and 39% say he has made no difference (+4). 11% say they don't know (-2).
- 29% say Labour led by Keir Starmer has done a good job setting out a clear alternative to the current government to voters (+11 from a similar question asked in July 2021*) and 47% say he has done a bad job (-12).
- Meanwhile 32% think Keir Starmer has done a good job giving people a reason to vote Labour (-3 from February 2021) and 45% think it has done a bad job (+8).
- 29% consider Keir Starmer decisive and 55% say he is indecisive. In February 2021 scores were the other way round, with 46% saying he was decisive and 28% indecisive.
- 50% agree it is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for. 30% disagree. 46% agree it is unclear what Rishi Sunak stands for and 36% disagree. Scores are largely unchanged from June last year.
Economy: Satisfaction with Chancellor and Hunt vs. Reeves.
- 22% are satisfied with the job Jeremy Hunt is doing as Chancellor and 56% are dissatisfied, his worst scores as Chancellor. In February last year 26% were satisfied and 52% dissatisfied.
- The British public think Labour's Rachel Reeves would make the most capable Chancellor by a margin of 39% to 24%, slightly up from a 12 point lead in October and June last year.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said: "The historical comparisons continue to look ominous for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives. The Ipsos Political Monitor series started in the late 70s and has never recorded a Conservative vote share this low – and the job satisfaction trends for the Prime Minister and his government since he took office are also heading downwards. Combined with Labour taking leads on issues of economic credibility to go with their traditional strengths in public services, this means the Conservatives face big challenges across a number of fronts if they are to turn the situation around."
Notes to Editors
- Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 21st to 28th February 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
- *in July 2021 for this question the neither/don't know categories were combined, this month they have been separated out.
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This blog has covered ad nauseam the lack of difference between the parties. Thus the section on “Best party on key issues” seems to indicate that Uk subjects are woefully ignorant on what each party is saying and/or are being taken in by LINO’s messaging. Probably the latter. Thus buyers regret & then what? Fury?
On a related note (Novara interviewing Gary the trader – warning it is very sweary):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-o2REr4bs8A
The interesting bit is 44:20 onwards – in which he says that if nothing is done – poverty will keep growing. It makes for very depressing listening (his comments on luxury restaurants in London being booked out – is also relevant in terms of past discussions on this blog).
Thanks for the recommendation – I watched the interview. I love his general approach regarding distribution and wealth inequality, but he doesn’t seem to have any idea about MMT, saying that governments like the UK that are not putting money into the economy because their income doesn’t match their expenditure, because they are (in his words) bankrupt. He directly equates household and government finances. Maybe he was just using his language loosely……but it seemed like he just didn’t know. I think he would do better to explain that a currency-issuing government only doesn’t spend money into the economy if it chooses not to. It’s not a case of can’t, but won’t.
I think his macro is weak but his heart is in the right place
I agree with both comments. Particularly the weak-macro – which greatly weakens other quite good elements.
That said, his description of how several stratas of UK society are being stripped of resource is spot on. Also the comments on who is getting economic degrees (the scions of very well off families) & where they end up working, had the ring of truth.
Question for Richard: would you appear on Novara? Because they seem weak on macro-economics/political economy.
I have occasionally but they have an irrational dislike of MMT
They seem to take the line of James Meadway, now of the Progressive Economy that expelled me for citing Stephanie Kelton, who refuses to recognise the relevance of MMT because he says it has no inherent narrative of class embedded in it.
Thanks Richard.
I confess to bursting out laughing @
“refuses to recognise the relevance of MMT because he says it has no inherent narrative of class embedded in it.”
Begging the question – why would it? – money as a token of exchange can have no connotation of class – that only comes once distribution (& who or what distributes it & decides on that distribution) comes on the scene. Of course you could argue that taxation (an inherent aspects of MMT) will contain a class element – based on more or less taxation for those with more or less money. Sad that minds are so closed, & the lack of curiosity.
I agree
Thanks for recommending this – I’m going to get Gary’s book
Starmer will form a majority Govt and for that we can be thankful,
If you want another Cameron/Osborne regime you can be grateful
The rest of us live in the fear of what they will lay the door open to
Oh, ffs, another loon clearly suffering from what I call moronavirus, the virus that turns brains and consciences to moronic mush!
The prospect you hold out is the economy and society being run by Starmer and Reeves, a pair of what I call flat-earther economists (people who have overlooked the Copernicam revolution brought about by the Great Financial Crash of 2008/9 which conclusively demonstrated what nonsense Neoliberal economics is – untrue, unworkable (except for the rich) hocus pocus)
Starmer and Reeves? Not a comedy duo – the Laurel and Hardy, or Abbott and Costello – of politics, but the unfunny coupling of filth and stupidity, of vileness and abhorrence, of vacuity and toxicity, of New Nu Labour, politics’s answer to How Low Can You Go? Answer? Bottomless.
Dream on chum!
There is a lot to take in here.
Last week I watched an interview with George Galloway by Sky news, after Galloway had just won the Rochdale byelection. It was flagged up by someone in here, thank you. Galloway may be a charlatan, but he is certainly articulate.
There were two stand out moments.The reporter was trying to get him to react to Sunak’s speech about extremism, but Galloway refused to be drawn. In the end the reporter asked ‘Do you not respect the Prime Minister?’ The people in the background all burst out laughing. Galloway then said he despised the Prime Minister.
The next was when the reporter asked if he had a message for Keir Starmer. Galloway said ‘I think the skids are under you….. because you have lost the trust, you have lost the confidence of millions of your traditional loyal supporters’. This caused an outbreak of cheering and clapping from the onlookers.
It’s the reactions of the Galloway voters that are most telling.
Interesting times. I am very much hoping for a hung parliament.
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Really are these polls worth anything when:
“Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,004 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 21st to 28th February 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.”
Rather like economic forecasting why bother?
That would require a massive margin of error not to communicate that the Tories are disliked
Because what other way is there for ordinary people to know?
David Byrne says:
Thank you to Mike Parr for the link to the Novara interview with Gary Stevenson (GS) (author, The Trading Game). The hour long dialogue provided much to ponder; it deserves critical acclaim. Cut out the expletives and you are left with 45 minutes!
I liked his comments on much-hyped, 3rd rate economists and his disparaging remarks on media ‘economics’ entertainers.
My response to the suggestion that GS is light on MMT could be easily resolved.
It is a matter of education.
Richard, send him a copy of your treatise on the subject and I am sure that you will receive a favourable response.
I will see if I can get in touch with him