There is a headline in the Observer today that says:
It seems clear that large numbers of Tories have decided that Sunak's Rwanda plan is either too extreme to be credible or not nearly extreme enough to pander to their prejudices, and either way it is lacking in support.
No wonder Sunak's main line of argument for this plan is to say that Labour have no alternative and so they must support it. For reasons that stress hard to explain, he has pinned his hopes for his future in winning the support of the Opposition for a Bill that makes no sense to any right thinking person.
So, is Rishi doomed as soon as Tuesday?
I think what happens on Monday at the Covid inquiry might have a big impact on that. If he is eviscerated for ‘Eat out to help out' - as he should be - and 20,000 deaths are laid at his door - as they should be - his chance's of winning on Tuesday diminish considerably.
But I should add that according to the Mail this morning, the plan is to then bring back Boris Johns9on, aided and abetted by Farage. They do not seem to have noticed that neither is in parliament, but since when did a little thing like democracy get in the way of the Mail?
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We’d have been better spending the money it has cost on working with Interpol to try to cut out the people traffickers instead of bribing Rwanda – a country that I imagine is dependent on external currency for income. The whole thing is shabby isn’t it and not befitting of our country.
Or am I wrong – maybe it is a symptom of the UK becoming an international pariah state and this is an indicator of that path?
Or alternatively, spend the money opening an asylum claim processing centre in France and staff it properly so that people seeking asylum in this country actually have a safe route to apply that doesn’t involve trying to cross one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world in an inflatable dinghy. It’s not rocket science, unless you’re a cold hearted racist who gives not one damn about the plight of desperate human beings.
Alternatively, we could stop imposing on France and just offer asylum seekers a ticket on a cross channel ferry.
That would end the illicit activity instantly.
But that is not what policy makers want to do.
The Daily Mail has indeed had a long history of supporting fascists and promoting fascist policies:
https://www.globaljustice.org.uk/blog/2017/10/horrible-history-daily-mail/
We don’t elect our Prime Ministers in the UK.
Maybe we should, but what would be the point? They only have the powers that Parliament lets them use as we shall find out next week. Johnson and Farage even if they enter the place as Party Leader and deputy are still constrained by that.
So let’s not change that part of it please.
Wrong
PMs have almost unlimited power if they can keep parliament on side
PMs have too much power. Look at the unilateral decision by Sunak to ditch the northern leg of HS2.
Disregarding the merits or otherwise of the project, this was an infrastructure scheme of national importance on which hundreds if not thousands of people has been working for many years, had cross-party support and had been approved [I believe] by parliament, and billions of pounds had already been spent
Yet one man who didn’t like the project decided to cancel it. Is that democracy?
One shudders to think what Johnson and Farage might do
“I think what happens on Monday at the Covid inquiry might have a big impact” on Sunak’s future. I made that case on another thread. I suspect the Covid Inquiry interrogation has more resonance with the British public than Rwanda and Small Boats.
The Small Boats/Rwanda crisis is a product of fantasy politics driven by a Conservative Party that ‘lost the plot’ long ago, in a grubby compact with the right-wing press editorial teams to distort reality, mislead the public about the nature of Britain’s problems, or and even deceive the public about where to direct its ire about the crisis of policy it knows it is suffering. The facts are quite different from the ‘Stop the Small Boats’ and Rwanda policy disaster.
The ONS has provided the immigration facts to June, 2023 and forecasts for the year: “The provisional estimate of total long-term immigration for year ending (YE) June 2023 was 1.2 million, while emigration was 508,000, meaning that net migration was 672,000; most people arriving to the UK in the YE June 2023 were non-EU nationals (968,000), followed by EU (129,000) and British (84,000)”.
The Small Boats immigration is on a much smaller scale: “In the year ending June 2023, there were 52,530 irregular migrants detected entering the UK, up 17% from the year ending June 2022. 85% of these arrived via small boats.” 85% of irregular migrants is therefore 44,650 .
Since only the June, 2023 stats, in both total immigration and small boats terms are compatible figures, this means that small boats immigrants only represents 6.6% of total [net] immigration (and the immigration issue is so confused, badly presented and polarised, I am not sure whether the small boat immigrants are part of the “total long-term immigration” figure, or not; if not the small boats only represent 6.1%).
Notice also i am using net migration to arrive between 6-7% small boats sourced. If we use gross immigration in the denominator (minus 84,000 British nationals), then the small boats immigration falls to around 4% of the total.
4%! All this for a policy that does not apply to 96% of immigration? This is politics? This is government? This is Britain?
This seems to me so bizarre, so far-fetched, I can scarcely believe it. I keep thinking I must have missed something. I must be wildly wrong. If so, please tell me what it is.
The forecast we have from the
I left an incomplete sentence. I intended to refer to a forecast for the year to December, 2023 for “irregular migrants”; provided unsurprisingly originally from the ‘Telegraph’, conveniently referencing “Home Office modelling” (it is truly remarkable how the revolving door between Government departments and right-wing Press journalists works). This showed an annual figure for “irregular migrants” of 85,000; or we may extrapolate, mutatis mutandis converted at 85% for Small Boats, converts to around 10-11% of total net migration (i.e., assuming only small boat migrants increase, because we do not have the December net immigration figure); or circa 6% of fross immigration. It is still not the prime motor of immigration.
The real problem is that Britain’s economy cannot afford to abandon immigration, but elderly Conservatives do not want to hear it – until faced with needing personal care themselves; for Scotland the issue is existential, and the Union is totally indifferent.
Agreed
Wanted to say thanks for this brilliant exposé! I have copied it without your permission I’m afraid. Can you let me have your handle so I can credit you on Social media! It’s a terrific piece!
Rich
@richardjmurphy
Isn’t it the plan that it was always intended to fail and therefore give them an excuse to leave the ECHR?
They can then play the ‘martyr’ role, having beened stymied by the ‘blob’ and lefty lawyers etc etc.
Most of the so-called ‘policy’ announcements are nothing more than theatre, playing to their base who will cheer them on as they lurch further and further to the right.
Unfortunately, Labour are also chasing the same group.
To summarize in plain simple English:
“Tories warn Rishi Sunak that his Rwanda plan ‘will never be law”
About time!
“How long has Sunak got?”
Not Long!
A lot of soon to be ex-MPs are panicking, I gather, and their only response to their anticipated unemployment is to suggest bringing back the still undead Boris and the yet to ever be elected Farage in some sort of fantasy govt. role-playing exercise. It’s easy to see why they’re soon to be ex MPs. This too shall pass 🙂