I, either optimistically or naïvely, have wished to dismiss that possibility for some time, hoping against the odds that a Biden second run might mean Trump would never return to office again. However, as Martin Wlf (and The Economist) points out, there is now sufficient polling data coming out of the US to suggest that this possibility has to be taken seriously.As Martin Wolf suggests, and with which I agree, Trump would overturn democracy in the USA, in the process turning the country into an autocracy. He would, in particular, end the tradition of civil service independence in that country and in the process use the powers of state to pursue his own agenda, including against those who he thinks have stood in his path when seeking a return to power. The rule of law would be replaced, in other words.
What Martin Wolf does not suggest is that Trump would make the US a fascist state, but I think he is simply being too subtle by not doing so when that, very obviously, is the case. He would, if he was re-elected president run the USA in the interest of selected corporate interests, and it seems that for reasons that are very hard (for me, at least) to understand that a significant part of the Republican movement in that country now supports his desire to do just that.
The issues arising from this are, however, much bigger than for the US alone. There we have to worry about the rights of just about every group in US who have ever been prejudiced, from women to black people, the Hispanic community, the LGBTQ+ community, and so many more. For all of them, the prospect of a Trump presidency coupled with the far-right evangelical Christian agenda now being seen from House Speaker, Michael Johnson, is so frightening that we should worry too.
Meanwhile, Trump would also backtrack on every commitment to tackling climate change.
There is no certainty that he would support Ukraine.
It is almost certain that he would give a free hand to Netanyahu.
And, in the event that Iran becomes more aggressive, I think it is quite reasonable to think that so would Trump in response, with the potential for an escalation which does not bear thinking about.
To not be too unsubtle about this, because there is no reason for subtlety on this issue, Trump poses the most enormous threat to the world, and it is simply staggering that the person who the US is relying upon to hold back Trump is Joe Biden. Whatever the strengths and weaknesses of Biden's time in office, and whatever his achievements in the past, it is glaringly apparent that Biden is now too old to serve another term in office. His frailties are already evident, and whilst that is nothing to be ashamed of, they can only assist Trump's campaign, which is a gift to it that neither Biden nor anyone else should consider making.
I never wanted to imagine a Trump return. I hoped (maybe I still do hope) that some form of legal action might prevent him from standing, but the risk that Trump will now return is a threat to us all that cannot be overstated.
What we now need now are champions of democracy. In this country, we have Keir Starmer.
That does not relieve my sense of ill-ease.
Only one thing does. That, rather surprisingly, is abortion. The Republicans are cracking down on it. American women want to save their right to it and are turning out to do so, as results in Ohio and elsewhere proved this week. The increased turnout to save abortion rights might just save the world from Trump. But that's how close democracy is to failing.
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What we need is a system where right thinking voters in the rest of the world can veto or approve the winners of national elections.
I am n ot sure that is what democracy is all about
I have always associated the phrase “right thinking” as an appeal to people too lazy or self righteous to do any thinking at all.
That kind of system existed in Europe. It was called the aristocracy.
Who decides who is a right-thinking voter? What would need to happen to stop someone like Donald Trump becoming this decider.
I think it was autocracy
The situation in the U.S. is very worrying indeed.
You are right though about the abortion debate which always reminds me that once extremism becomes rampant, there is always the risk that it become a threat to itself – goes too far.
The Netflix documentary ‘Reversing Roe’ is well worth a look.
Biden should be judged on his achievements not on his age.
Like the pathetically corrupt and dishonest attempts by Republicans to impeach Biden, the constant attacks on his age exist because it is all the Republicans have got.
If there was a genuine bi-partisan concern for the fitness of elderly men for public office then all attention would be on the Republican Senate Leader Mitch, “The Long Pause”, McConnell and the psychopathic, McDonalds guzzling, orange barrage balloon currently leading the Republican primaries.
More positively, arguably the greatest world statesmen of the second half of the twentieth century was Den Xiaoping who ruled China into his nineties and in twenty years turned China from a gigantic kind of North Korea into the most dynamic nation on the planet, all be it, still a Communist dictatorship.
Totally agree Paul. Biden’s age is a Republican weapon and part of their degradation strategy. Biden is surrounded by advisors and professionals who support him with government. He’s an experienced and savvy politician. His age is less than ideal if it is affecting his judgement and ability to do the job. That we simply do not know – the Republican propaganda machine and their little helpers are intent on rubbishing him not least given his age.
Trump is what the USA gets when the Democratic Party version of liberal democracy fails the people. A UK equivalent of Trump might be what we get down the line if/when the Labour Party (assuming they are elected next year) succeed in their stated agenda to change nothing of significance.
Hilary Clinton has just been reported as comparing Trump to Hitler – get elected, then do away with elections and opposition. We are nowhere near that scenario.
Trump is clearly demented, with most of the media not reporting the evidence, unlike they did with McConnell. Sunak and the rest aren’t demented, simply either inadequate or malign (or both).
Our Achilles Heel is indeed Starmer & Co., their politics lodged back in the 90s, their leaders incompetent, malign, witless yet vicious. When you need a vision and a purpose that serves the people and their welfare, it has coincided with a dead-hand on the tiller.
I think Clinton is right
The Republicans are out of ways to gerimander now – getting rid of elections is the next step
And he is a far right: that is what they do
Agree entirely about Trump, and the threat to US democracy (and thus more widely). Indeed, he’s made no secret of what he intends to do.
But on a more upbeat note, although the polls reported at the weekend showed Trump leading Biden in five of six swing states, what got much less reported was that the same polling showed that should Trump be found guilty in any of the legal cases against him that lead evaporates (if I recall correctly, it made about a minus 6 point difference).
Of course, it’s very likely that the Trump appointed judge in the Florida (classified documents case) will do all she can to delay the trial until it falls foul of the election, but that’s not going to happen with the other federal trial. And the state trial in Georgia will certainly happen well before the election and at the moment – with various people pleading guilty and agreeing to testify as witnesses in return for more lenient sentences – that trial in particular looks really bad for Trump.
Just to add that if anyone’s really interested in following this topic I suggest watching clips from The Beat, hosted by Ari Melber, on MSNBC (eg. https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari-melber) who covers all Trumps legal woes on a regular basis and in detail that often gets missed in other reporting.
Thanks Ivan
Just to add that the Democrats did pretty well in the elections that took place on Tuesday. Add to that the fact that across all the various state level special elections that have taken place over the past year the Democrats have averaged an eight point advantage over Republicans and things are nowhere near as bad as lots of people make out. Unfortunately – and unjustly – Biden’s ratings are not so good. But just wait until people have to make a choice between him and Trump, or indeed any other Republican presidential candidate promising to implement a nationwide abortion ban. As Tuesdays elections demonstrated, that’s game over as far as the majority of US voters are concerned.
I spoke to a several Americans recently. Without exception they thought Trump would beat Biden. The only thing they could foresee stopping Trump was his own death.
Trump is 77 and will pass 78 before the next election, and is plainly not in the best of health. Whereas Biden will pass 81 shortly. Biden or Trump, at the start of their next term, either will be older than the 77 nearly 78 of Reagan when he finished. Sobering.
Clinton was 46. Bush2 was 54. Obama was 47.
I’m sure I detect an undertow in the attitude of the Israeli Government towards Biden and his efforts to calm things down in Gaza.
Trump was very enabling I think of Israeli designs on internal expansionism, and I think that Bibi is exploiting this domestically in the U.S. at the moment most cynically.
This is a dirty business, you know.