The news round is, once again, dominated by small-minded and vindictive petty squabbling this morning, with Suella Braverman in the lead.
Meanwhile, in the real world The Guardian reports:
A new modelling study suggests premature deaths – people dying before they reach 75 – will rise 6.5% this year due to the cost of living crisis, with 30 extra deaths per 100,000 people. The findings were published in the journal BMJ Public Health.
The study focused on Scotland. But the researchers, from Public Health Scotland and the University of Glasgow, said “similar effects are likely across the UK as we have modelled the impact of UK government measures”.
The predicted increase in premature deaths – from a baseline 463 per 100,000 people to 493 per 100,000 – equates to thousands of extra deaths a year in the UK.
The failure to support real people through the impact of inflation - which has been and remains the policy of the government and most especially the Bank of England - is costing lives.
There should be no surprise about that. People living on the edge of existence - because that is where society has forced them to be - have died and will continue to die because of the inequality our society tolerates.
That is why I am working on the Taxing Wealth Report 2024. That inequality is a choice, and not a necessity.
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At present the BoE and other central banks have high interest rates, allegedly “to fight inflation”. This is false, of course, because current inflation is caused by external factors such as the fall out from the pandemic and war in Ukraine. Clearly these are not affected by UK interest rates. Furthermore, as the BoE knows well, interest rates take a long time, and are unpredictable, in reducing demand. Yet they behave as if the latest inflation figures should somehow determine the interest rate. Madness. And a pernicious choice.
Clearly interest rates should be reduced (as per Japan).
The only downside of reducing interest rates that I can see (since they clearly do not control inflation) is the effect on exchange rates. Reduced interest rates lead to a falling pound, which in turn engenders some inflation. That said, as discussed here previously, high interest rates themselves engender inflation through, amongst other things, their effect on rental prices. So, overall, the effect of reduced interest rates on inflation is likely small.
Whatever the effect, interest rates should be reduced. If necessary, if there is a small inflationary impact, this should be offset by appropriate fiscal measures, such as reducing VAT. In turn this may require raising other taxes on the wealthy, which is one place where the Taxing Wealth Report is so valuable (thank you so much).
One particular reason for the UK exposure to exchange rate instability is that so much of our economy is focused on international financial markets, the City, the finance sector and financialisation; profligate in its expenditure, and essentially unstable and unreliable in the modern world. We depend on the city because the British economy has demonstrably been incapable of producing growth and is endemically incapable of producing a trade surplus; until the 1980s, economic focus was not on the deficit, but the balance of payments. Politicians stopped talking about it, because they gave up. We are now vainly trying to hang on grimly to our fading credibility as a major international financial market player (and driving everybody to distraction in the process); a one-trick pony that is on its last legs.
Scotland has a 5m population, with more potential in green energy than virtually anywhere in Europe, and produces substantial income in a number of other lucrative, productive economic sectors; and not just in energy in all its forms. New sectors in life and other sciences (including small space) have considerable potential, but in the ‘here and now’, Scotch whisky alone produces a £5Bn surplus contribution to counteract Britain’s near £150Bn trade deficit; while high quality Scottish seafood and agricultural produce is sought after. Scotland’s efforts, however are lost in the hopelessness of Britain’s performance. It is time to cut ourselves loose.
Such a statistic should be telling the British people they’ve allowed democracy including the electoral system to degenerate into one that puts narcissists and sociopaths into power over them. Perhaps this realisation is now slowly growing and that deep reform of the country is now necessary.
“Democracy will never succeed, it takes up too many evenings.’
Oscar Wilde.
“The study focused on Scotland…”
I imagine the Tories response will be to blame the SNP.
The BBC as well…
They would, wouldn’t they?
https://labourhub.org.uk/2023/09/26/a-dark-day-for-public-health/
There are going to be more of us dying over this winter because money is more important to the UKHSA.
Thanks for your tip, by the way, Richard. I have spent this afternoon going into Durham on the park-and-ride getting a covid vaccination from a walk-in centre. Covid in one arm, flu in the other. That could be interesting.
I feel absolutely grotty……
Hope it only lasts the day, Richard.
I am assuming I will be okay as there was a red admiral waiting for me as I got out of the car. Never seen one on the front hedge before.
Last year I slept for the day after having the vaccine, but I’ve always been okay after flu vaccinations and I’ve had those for over 20 years.
It’s a first adverse reaction for me. It is not good…..
A House of Lords reports states: “.. since the early 2010s. A recent study argued there have been over 300,000 excess deaths during this period, when comparing trends in life expectancy with those from before 2011. The authors of the study argue this is a result of austerity policies pursued by the government.”
Mortality rates among men and women: impact of austerity
Published Friday, 06 January, 2023
House of Lords
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/mortality-rates-among-men-and-women-impact-of-austerity/
Thanks
Great article! The government’s choices during this dire time seem suspicious to say the least!