As Gaby Hinsliff notes in The Observer this morning:
Wherever Tories have huddled together this summer, from end-of-term drinks receptions to rain-sodden Cornish beaches, talk has turned to life after defeat. Few expect Rishi Sunak to turn things around now.
I would suggest that those few Tories who think Sunak has a chance should give up now.
Sunak is in California right now. I suspect that before he is 50 that is where he will be living. Parliament will just have been a blip in his career. Being PM will have been a stepping stone to yet more millions, the contact book being worth a fortune. But as for Rishi himself, what will there be for him?
No one is going to engage him for his ideas, his grasp of detail, charisma or leadership qualities. His media personality is leaden. When it comes to finance (the only thing he supposedly knows anything about) it is clear that he is out of his depth. The reality is (and this is going to come hard to him) that he has failed. He was always told he could do whatever he wanted. Maybe he could have done, except being prime minister. Or even a minister. He's really no good at being them, at all.
So, what should the Tories be imagining after defeat? That's not my job to say, but I do know what they should be avoiding. These include:
1) Denying climate change
2) Denying social realities
3) Pretending markets work without the support for an active state
4) Low taxes are good when people want public services
5) The Bank of England is possessed of the answers to all economic questions
6) There was a halcyon past that can be recreated
7) Rich boys from public schools are necessarily over-endowed with talent
To put it another way, stop trying to recreate the denial and policies of the 1930s in the face of a crisis. Read Brideshead Revisited. Realise that there is a past where some things necessarily belong. Move in. Try to be relevant.
Sunak has dismally failed at this. So have all his predecessors in office since 2010.
It will take the most extraordinary feat of imagination for the Tories to recover. Or they will move towards fascism.
In either case we need to be rid of first-past-the-post to manage the consequences.
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They will join the Labour Party. Under Starmer it is their home from home.
The people who own the press will have a major say.
We may see some splits. Today the Express has a headline ‘SABOTAGE’ about Starmer’s ‘cronies’ who are blocking asylum laws. They point to Jacqueline MacKenzie who belongs to the ‘Race equality task force’. Obviously a subversive body-what right thinking person wants anything to do with that? The Labour opposition is ‘political point scoring’.
Dowden in the Telegraph ; ‘Critics of barges must stop howling’.
They are still going Right following the American Republicans.
The Mail is attacking ‘Fat Cats’ -bosses whose businesses have fuelled the cost of living crisis -while people struggle. A more populist approach but , perhaps, appealing to a wider target audience. Normally they are on a similar page to the Express.
The opportunistic, Brexit, ERG , Free market faction will be able to draw on dark money and is unlikely to go away. But many Conservatives will want a more pragmatic and rational party.
The Tories have had serious slits before, on the Corn Laws in 1846 or Tariff reform 1906 but always bounced back. So we can’t write them off but I think it is more likely they will split. Or maybe I am too hopeful.
Whatever happens you are 100% correct we need a PR system to manage the consequences.
I presume a few will cling to the party name either because it’s their only chance or because they believe in it.
The rest will try and make money as they can. Perhaps drift towards more climate-deniying, Covid-“sceptic”, culture-warring types.
What really happens to the Tory party from there depends on how well Labour performs, both on the media as in results for the population of this country. If they do do well enough people might pretend they never really cared and move to someone else. Say LDs. If LDs fight the next GE under FPTP they might think that to fight Labour they’ll have to adopt positions that differentiate them from the ruling party to get more votes: what these positions end up being depend on the leadership and a bit in Labour itself.
A good place for ordinary, decent, Tories to start would be to stop reading the Mail and the Telegraph and all their concocted anti-woke nonsense. Then they might be able to start thinking for themselves. (Reading your blog regularly is probably too much to hope for!)
My impression is quite a lot of right wingers read this blog.
Then they troll.
I can confirm that this blog is indeed read by quite a number of liberal bon vivants who would like to take us back to the policies and size of government we had in the late 18th century and early 19th centuries.
More fool you….
Sunak has proven himself nothing more than a Tufton Street place-man.
It is certainly difficult to imagine the beaten Conservatives persisting in having two disparate strands with hardly any values in common (except perhaps for veneration of the wealthy).
At the moment the far-right movement seems to be dominant, pulling the strings of a weak government. The more moderate successors to the one-nation Tory ideal are hardly visible in Parliament, with their views mostly represented by people no longer MPs. However there is also a pretty large group of backbench constituency MPs who are happy to go with the flow having little dogma of their own, and the balance might be more easily shifted than we think depending on the post-election arithmetic.
Obviously if FPTP was ended (not that there is any current route to that) then things change considerably, with a real chance the post-election showdown would lead to a party split.
Where I certainly agree with Gaby Hinsliff is that in the absence of any discernible talent in the current parliamentary Conservative Party, there will be an almost unprecedented opportunity for newly elected MPs to progress straight to leadership roles.
The current Tory party has been taken-over by UKIP, it seems to me. All the (relatively) sensible members of the parliamentary party have been ejected. Constituency parties are struggling, I hear – even more so than other parties.
And UKIP never have had more than miniscule support from UK voters on UK issues. Farage has such a history of failure (even at grifting, it seems, lately) that even the tory party will try to keep him out of the news, and given their current influence at the BBC, he will not be afforded the publicity he would need to build any sort of following.
However the tory party is still exceptionally good at getting funding from companies & the very rich, so they can afford to pay people to do the work at election time, both on-line and in person, that other parties get done by volunteers.
Whether that funding will continue as poll ratings continue to slide is another question. If it doesn’t, they will indeed take the place of the Liberal party – the jokes about conferences in phone boxes will have to be re-worked.
Where they will go on policy & strategy in those circumstances is anyone’s guess, but a shift even further to the right would not (I hope) be productive.
Sadly, I think you’re wrong about Farage. I think he has been by far the most influential and impactful politician of the last 15 years. He, more than Johnson, is responsible for Brexit, and therefore has the most impact on the UK.
A post a few days ago from Peter May. (Richard has also made most of his points)
http://www.progressivepulse.org/economics/is-monetary-sovereignty-endangered-by-britains-enormous-food-and-energy-imports?fbclid=IwAR0yc6vHvz4ssdB44BxHzMTuC-u1Kg3SZ7h_Q_q42xDixqN2ATedYeudBdc
He makes the point that a country which has to import nearly half its food and half its energy does not have monetary sovereignty. For MMT to work, a country must either be self-sufficent, or have sufficient exports to pay for its imports. The conservatives and Brexit have failed on both fronts, just dug us a deeper and deeper hole.
I can see now why Rachel Reeves needs to talk neo-classical b**t, she has to appease our real master, the Market. But I would like Labour to at least have an escape plan.
As for the Tories, I suspect there is no problem so great, that they can’t pretend it doesn’t exist.
I simply do not agree
Utterly untrue, in my opinion
From the 1990s onwards I have leant more and more to your colonial mindset theory of what has happened to Britain.
First we get wealthy by invading foreign countries, killing anybody that resists and then stealing their wealth and resources.
Then, when the changing power balance, cost and moral repugnance means we have to give up our Empire, retreat to the home country and work the same trick here.
A final a-ha moment came a few years ago when reading John le Carre’s memoir The Pigeon Tunnel.
Working for MI5 and MI6 until 1964 he recounted that in the fifties those organisations were dominated by men who had a good WW2 but by the sixties they had been replaced by ex-colonial policemen who brought their colonial attitudes with them.
Anybody who still has any doubts should try reading the reports from the inquiry into the infiltration of undercover secret policemen into legal left wing and centrist campaigning and charity organisations.
Over a thousand organisations suborned by the UK secret service but none from the right or far right.
Nothing to disagree with in your post but it useful to reflect on a few more issues because my view is that the Tory party is an inherently weak party that seems to thrive more on opportunism (and money) than anything else.
1. We have to remember that the Tory party got in to power only because of the private banking fiasco of 2007/08. Before that, I would not even say they were credible in opposition. They were a collection of odd-bods and tired ex-Thatcherite high fliers really, hopelessly out of date and Cameron only really copied Blair in presentation. OK – so the ‘most sophisticated electorate in the world’ were upset and voted them in but I do not think that in their anger and frustration voters had bargained for this lot at all. A case of ‘be careful for what you wish for’ and ‘the sun does not always shine brighter else where’.
2. Another area of opportunism is the inherent weaknesses in the Labour party. Gordon Brown’s refusal to talk to the Lib-Dems at the 2010 election is not only redolent of a dinosaur of a party that Labour actually is, it was a peculiar thing for a politician claiming to care for the people and his country to do. Brown – buoyed up by the way he led the world to get money moving again – was a complete failure here and consigned the British people to being governed by one of the most incompetent and out of touch group of politicians in living memory in modern times. I for one Gordon will not let you off the hook for that. Sorry.
In fact, the list of Labour party transgressions can go on and on – the inability to challenge the ‘no money left trope’; its internecine fighting between left and right factions at the loss to the country of viable and united front and the way it allowed the Tories to dictate the BREXIT debate are only three of quite a few big weaknesses I can think of.
The Labour party in my view have been the Tories key enablers since 2010. And that says a lot.
One of the things Labour has to be careful of currently is Stymied’s Kremlin-like predilection for parachuting favoured/official candidates into constituencies over locally grown ones. This will be gift to the Tories and another ‘hand up’ to them from Labour for which the Tories will take all the credit.
As for the Tory party itself, there has been a paucity of talent for a long time. This explains why they have been so reactionary because that is what a party with out the competency and any new ideas will do – simply react to what is there already and what they do not like and set out to destroy it (watch out Labour! You’re heading the same way!).
The Tories also have a renowned lack of self awareness (so would you if money was not a problem) and they constantly overrate themselves which is why a third (tenth?) rater like Sunak will not pull them out of the mire they are in. They are just not clever enough – like a lot of neo-liberals – to see that neo-liberal policies are like shitting in your own back yard (and our rivers) and you will end up stepping in your merde, ending up face down in the shite eventually.
But I must say again, that the Labour party itself has been responsible for a lot of Tory success since 2010.
And if you accept that like I do, you realise that politics in this country is in a real, dysfunctional mess.
Agreed
Labour since 2010 has been dominated at all levels by Blairs place(wo)men, with co-opted unions. These ensured a stranglehold on all levels of debate, and it was only OMOV, with its unintended consequences, that allowed the paying customers any influence. Chaos ensued as the place(wo)men struggled to fend off even social democrats. That door has shut, reverting to the illusion of internal democracy that existed from the early 90s, while a culture of localism is pushed as progress.
It is this machine, Brown being very much part of it, that created the ground for the Tories.
Talking about Blair, this is scary, particularly the part about the NHS, around 14 minutes. I know the thread is about tories, but Blair was Thatcher’s best idea, wasn’t he?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX7TlBRvg9I
@Pilgrim Sight Return
You say:
“One of the things Labour has to be careful of currently is Stymied’s Kremlin-like predilection for parachuting favoured/official candidates into constituencies over locally grown ones. This will be gift to the Tories and another ‘hand up’ to them from Labour for which the Tories will take all the credit.”
I couldn’t agree more. If you haven’t read this Aditya Chakraborrty piece on his view why Labour failed in Uxbridge, please do, as I think it’s spot on.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/03/uxbridge-brexit-tories-anti-green-labour-local?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
After all, Keef Stalin, the unstrategic non-General un-politician, Sir Useless Woodentop, wouldn’t let Emma Dent Coad even be on the longlist for the Kensington and Chelsea seat she took for Labour for the first time in history, replacing her with a dreary Starnerite clone (as in Uxbridge),
The man’s a political moron, and I repeat what I think I’ve already posted here, that I can honestly say I not only DON’T WANT SKS’S VILE FAUX-LABOUR PARTY TO SUCCEED AT THE NEXT GE, BUT I WANT IT HUMILIATED by failing to win as many votes (10.3m) or seats (202) as Labour did in 2019.
Preferably, I’d hope they’d win fewer seats than a Left Wing Socialist offshoot Party.
Only Labour’s death – that of Starmer’s VILE Faux-Labour – can allow Labour’s resurrection, as he and his Faux-Labour Party are a “clear and present danger” to democracy, decency and the common good.
If Starmer’s VILE Faux-Labour wins, Labour will die the death of Pasokification, and will deserve to.
There’s a lot for me to be sympathetic to Andrew in your post, but for me it is how Labour passively help the Tories to go about their business that will only ever help the Tories in the long and short run.
It points to a very inward looking Labour party and from what I’ve heard about Stymied this morning and his apparent hostility to Just Stop Oil in The Times it indicates that the Labour party is nothing but the tail of the British political system – to be wagged at anytime by its master – the Tory press and the Tory party itself.
The Labour party seems to do nothing but serve the interests of the Tory party and those that fund it in our ‘establishment’. It’s like an unofficial ‘non-aggression pact’ between the Tories and Labour.
There – I’ve said it.
Yet anyone in the labour party who suggests having a pact with libdems or greens to get rid of the tory party is abandoned by the wayside.
There was a comment today by a former labour MP Simon Danczuk saying that he agrees with the idea of sending refugees to Ascension Island and commendsBraverman for coming up with the idea.
That should lead to suspension from the party
If the Tories want to reinvent themselves they could ditch trying to brain-wash voters along with the other political parties and main-stream media by endlessly repeating the lie the state has no money of its own. Even that appalling bully Trump said the Federal Government created its own money! Hard to think though the Tories would ever do this they currently appear to be basically evil and corrupt but post Second World War they did engage for a brief spell in trying to meet the needs of the many.
‘He was always told he could do whatever he wanted. Maybe he could have done, except being prime minister. ‘
He sounds like Cameron, but without the camera skills.
What skills are left, I wonder?
Very few
Hopefully, electoral oblivion from which they will never recover. As others have remarked, the establishment doesn’t need them any more, they have The Labour Party.
Sunak is over in California to sell off the rest of the NHS to his mates in private healthcare companies. He’s done it before, but didn’t take his family with him.
He’s also making sure he has a job lined up over there for when he has to leave government next year. He doesn’t need one but likes to keep busy. He took a long time to give up his green card.
Somehow I don’t think he will be staying in Richmond for long.
Sunak is an apparatchik. Everybody thinks apparatchiks only appear in communist societies. Apparatchiks appear wherever ideologies of left or right triumph. Apparatchiks are just ideological machine minders. Sunak is simply one of them
“When I grow up I want to be an Ideological Machine Minder Dad.”
“What do you mean daughter?”
“Well it should be obvious there’s only one political party in the UK and that needs to be called the Great British Gullible Party.”
“Why gullible daughter?”
“Because it believes in at least two big lies.”
“Tell me what they are.”
“That the UK state has no money of its own and it’s possible to be economically successful despite the WTO allowing China to have no free market in the exchange of currency which enables it to dictate price point in many global markets including the UK’s.”
“Hmmm I’m struggling with your attitude I thought I brought you up to be both moral and pragmatic and your coping strategy doesn’t reconcile the two!”
“It’s not me who’s mad Dad it’s the people living here. That’s the reality!”
Starmer appeared out of the blue in 2015. No record of political activity. Within 5 years he becomes leader of the Labour Party. He wins the leadership by promising a progressive manifesto. Since then he has ditched every bit of that manifesto. Worse he is now espousing Tory policy. He has eschewed socialism altogether. Has he pulled off a coup? In 2018 he secretly became a member of the Tripartite Commission. An organisation founded by Kissinger ,Brzezinski and one of the Rockefellers. Kissinger is still a trustee of that Commission. Two CIA directors were fellow members. Other members have included Samuel Huntingdon who is on record of saying there is too much democracy. By any measure the organisation is extreme Right. It abhors socialism. During his membership Starmer was Shadow Minister for Brexit. Perfectly positioned to sabotage Labours’ chances of winning the 2019 election . Brexit was the key issue in that election and some believe Labours’ policy of a second referendum was a disaster. Why did Starmer join a hostile group? There is a photo of him with Mike Pompeo who threatened to prevent Corbyn becoming PM if he won the election. This has all the hallmark of a coup. The Tripartite Commission is the best place to learn how to carry out a successful coup. The CIA and the other security services have a long and disgraceful record of success in this field. Mandelson has also been a member in the past. I believe if Labour win the upcoming election they will continue with neoliberalism . Every bit of what is left of the wartime settlement will be erased. Including the NHS. The British people will be taught to know their place . Look across the Atlantic to see the society which will be imposed on us. After one term in office the Labour Party will be totally extinguished . The threat of a progressive government will be no more. That is the aim I believe . Starmer is there to ensure it happens.
Maybe.
But your premise that he appeared from nowhere is wrong.
He was a civil mservant. He was not allowed to engage in politics then.
Not that this excuses the policies, or lack of them.
@stephen mitchell
Don’t you mean the Trilateral Commission?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trilateral_Commission
Yes it’s true that it’s an anti-democratic organisation much like the Mont Pelerin Society (see further link below) and that Keir Starmer is a member. I’m not sure though why Starmer should be involved in trying to weaken the EU given the supposed aim of the commission was to foster cooperation between liberal democracies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Crisis_of_Democracy
“The spokesperson backed the decision by the environment secretary, Thérèse Coffey, to stop her department engaging with Greenpeace after it staged a protest at the PM’s home in Yorkshire. “We don’t think that people accused of breaking the law should have a seat at the table in discussions with government,” the spokesperson said.”
That should get rid of quite a lot of front and backbenchers and advisers.
🙂