In the light of local elections taking place in some parts of England tomorrow, and discussion on proportional representation on this blog, I was curious to know if PR would change voting intentions. I am not pretending any poll here is statistically valid, but they tend to be interesting.
So, three polls this morning. The first is on what you would vote fir as your first preference if you had the chance to do so tomorrow and PR was in use, meaning you could rank your preference of your candidates.
If you could vote using a proportional representation system tomorrow which party would get your first preference vote?
- Green (60%, 539 Votes)
- Labour (15%, 135 Votes)
- LibDem (8%, 74 Votes)
- Other (8%, 73 Votes)
- SNP (6%, 58 Votes)
- Plaid Cymru (1%, 11 Votes)
- Reform (1%, 5 Votes)
- Conservative (0%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 898
Loading ...Then I want to know who your second preference would be in that situation:
Who would be your second preference political party if you could vote tomorrow using a proportional representation system?
- Labour (32%, 286 Votes)
- Green (26%, 232 Votes)
- LibDem (22%, 190 Votes)
- Other (12%, 105 Votes)
- SNP (4%, 39 Votes)
- Plaid Cymru (2%, 21 Votes)
- Reform (1%, 8 Votes)
- Conservative (0%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 882
Loading ...Then, assuming that we did not have a PR system, who would you vote for?
Who would you vote for tomorrow if a first past the post system of voting was in use?
- Labour (41%, 365 Votes)
- Greens (22%, 193 Votes)
- LibDem (20%, 175 Votes)
- SNP (10%, 85 Votes)
- Other (6%, 54 Votes)
- Plaid Cymru (1%, 10 Votes)
- Reform (0%, 4 Votes)
- Conservatives (0%, 3 Votes)
Total Voters: 889
Loading ...As far as I know I cannot identify who votes in these polls, and I would never do so.
My interest is in whether behaviour changes, or not.
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I have been a Labour supporter but I am really disappointed with the direction Starmer is going.
I understand that he has to appeal to a certain audience in order to win the election and that reversing Brexit is not possible (yet); but I am becoming more and more convinced that be actually wants to stay out of the EU. Why rule out SM/CU so categorically when it is a solution to many of our current problems?
I am also concerned with him blocking PR. I think he knows he will lose votes in a PR system.
I will vote Labour at the next election because we need to get the Tories out. But there is a lot wrong with current Labour. Once they are in power, they will come under pressure because the problems of Brexit will not go away.
My answers would change if this were a general election: my first choice would not stand a chance in this constituency in a general, and I would vote tactically.
Doesn’t look as though you’ve got many Conservative voters following you on Twitter.
Possibly not
I can’t think why
I follow some Tories
in the 2022 Somerset unitary authority elections, the Greens out polled Labour.
It is probably the case that people are more inclined to vote for another party if the election is not for the national government. However, it was a surprise to the Tories.
I have posted on Labour, Lib Dem and Green websites about MMT and referred to your blog.
A couple of Lib Dems and a Green Councillor have responded positively.
I hope they talk to each other.
Thanks Ian
I’m in a marginal constituency – Tory 2015, Labour 2017, Tory 2019. Always a battle between the two so little point in voting tactically.
Surely a marginal seat is where a tactical vote will count under FPTP? Granted, it will often be a vote against the one rather than actively for the other. Unless you are genuinely indifferent as between two equally ghastly outcomes.
Like Chris Horn, I’ve become disillusioned by the Labour party: almost every policy direction they announce (or implicitly or explicitly endorse) grates on me. Right now the most exciting Labour policy is that on expanding green energy and helping to conserve energy. And that’s about it.
The Green Party is now much closer to my values. For this reason, that would be my first preference, followed by Labour. As things are, I’m forced to vote for the second-best (admittedly, no election in my borough this May).
My options for district councillor are limited to Lab, Con and LD. Labour were the first to send out a flyer in the post and they have been visible campaigning in the local town. The incumbent Tory sent a flyer suggesting he should selected because he has a good relationship with our MP which “helps in getting things done”. The LibDems seem to be keeping a low profile.
Interestingly I have seen some homemade signs on the road nearby reading “Tories Out” and normally I’d expect to see a few official Conservative Party placards. While I am braced for disappointment I can’t help but feel a tiny bit hopeful.
Good luck!
It makes sense to vote Green in both the local & general elections. A strong result for them in the locals could persuade Starmer he needs to adopt PR to get a decent majority in the general. Both Greens & LDs would lend their votes if he did.
In the general election both the main Parties are set to lose voters – Labour due to Starmer’s Blairite stance, the Tories for obvious reasons but also the rise of ReformUK. So we need strong turnouts for Greens & LDs as they will be king makers. The deal must involve PR, which will fix our broken system for good. Personally I trust the Greens most to stick to that deal. I’m not sure the LDs would. Therefore a Green vote tomorrow and in next year’s general election is the most logical choice in my humble opinion.
With the FTP situation tactical voting applies. I reside in a strong LibDem ward. Consequently I will support them as the Tories are in second place (usually) and I do my best to ensure they do not proliferate.
However, I would prefer party politics to be absent from local elections as I fail to see how it applies to potholes, dustbins, and dog poo etc. All should be independent and elected on merit and contribution to the community. But even at this level the hobnobbing, self interest, embellishing CVs etc takes precedence.
In our local 2-seat ward, my attempts to get the Lib Dem’s and Greens to put up one candidate each failed. The result was both Tories got about 1200 votes and were elected, the Lib Dem’s got around 800 and the Greens about 600. The council remained Tory, spent £55m buying the town centre that is now worth less than £11m, and is putting at least £27m into a controversial northern relief road around Shrewsbury. Potholes galore, libraries and sports centres closed, social services decimated.
Have they learnt? Probably not..
Potholes not filled? Look on the bright side – view them as speed bumps.
Not if you are a bike
Your poll assumes transferable vote. That isn’t proper PR as it still favours big parties.
I want PR like we have for London Assembly. One vote for local candidate & one for party. Assembly is topped up to ensure mix is same as party preferences & you also have a local rep.
Germany uses same I believe
My heart says to vote LibDem because of their support for reversing Brexit and bringing in proportional representation, they would get my first vote if we had PR. However, because Labour are the only party likely to defeat the Tories here, I will vote Labour on Thursday in the FPTP system.
Not sure this is the right question Richard – many will vote Labour or Tory whatever because of ‘conditioning’ over the FPTP years. I think what really matters though is all the middle-ground or undecided voters or those who never vote because they know there vote is wasted in a traditionally Labour or Tory strongholds.
For me personally, I have lived in Scotland for quite a few years now and I would vote SNP to get the Tories out, to restore democracy, to get Scottish independence and, in time, back into the EU
I live in Sheffield, and vote Green in local elections because they stand a good chance of being elected in my ward. My friend in north Derbyshire has a different range of choice, where she would prefer to vote Green may well vote Labour as, strangely, people in a largely rural area tend not to vote Green. In these local elections, decisions on who to vote for depend so much on local circumstance. I thought the polls interesting. They weren’t designed to, and couldn’t, reflect the wide diversity.
Accepted
I would need much more sophisticated polling software for that
Details matter!
Do second, third, even fourth choices cascade through?
And the influence of opinion polls is profound. With our existing system, we can only ensure our best choice if we have a reasonably accurate assessment in place.
The worst outcome is to see our “never” party get through because we thought another party didn’t have a chance.
If voters want to increase their agency and apply pressure to politicians they should change they way they use their vote.
Voting need not be like going to a supermarket and picking the best option based on the deals around, it can be a communication between voters and those who seek power.
Rather than voters being forced to make a choice based on the system, voters can force candidates into positions by communicating red lines. By clearly communicating certain policies are the price of a vote, voters take control of the democratic relationship and move politicians towards their positions rather than being taken for granted.
This can be achieved by emailing candidates the essential positions needed and expressing publicly the basic conditions of support. There are large majorities in the UK in support of wealth taxes, rent controls, and greater public ownership (electoral reform also has a significant lead over FPTP). The challenge of our time is to translate popular opinion into representation. The majorities are there, so the obstacle is one of translation. Voters need note vote against their own interests, they can communicate the basic conditions needed before handing over consent to those who seek to govern.
You can email now
I am not sure you are describing electoral reform
I like that. It would be interesting to canvass for policies not parties and communicate the levels of support to the local parties and candidates. I am very much in favour of PR but as I have said before, it needs to be accompanied by a change in thinking from the bottom up, to problem solving rather than competition on the basis of party identity. I think this would be a really good start.
But that’s no different from now. Politicians can promise anything they want and then change their minds once elected. That’s exactly what Starmer has done, got rid of all the promises he made to get elected leader.
‘logical elections’ ? – now there’s an interesting concept!
Oops
Corrected
Thanks
My vote preference would change were Scotland an independent country.
The flaw in your poll, to my mind, is that if and when PR comes in, new parties would emerge. Broadly speaking, both Labour and Conservatives are, in Harold Wilson’s words, Broad Churches. As such, one would hope, a separate left wing party could emerge from the wreck that Starmer is delivering.
I have always voted Labour, and my vote has never mattered as I have always lived in either solid Labour or solid Tory constituencies. Now, I simply cannot stomach voting for Starmer and Streeting, but my 2nd choice, the Greens, are now all in for Nato and will probably go the way was as the lunatic German Greens. So I won’t be voting tomorrow, and in all likelihood, not in the next General Election.
Point accepted
But hard to model in a poll like this
Greens in Germany are in a difficult position. They have to work in coalition with right-wing Social Democrats and Liberals. Also, Germans are scared of the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and memories of the Soviet army atrocities in WW2 are still real and that of the East German Stasi government
They are in a difficult position but making an excellent job of it. Annalena Baerbock came away from her meeting in China having spelt out Germany’s opposition to Russia’s invasion and that no territory should be conceded. This after President Macron’s visit a week earlier when he strongly implied that Ukraine would have to give up territory.
If I had to vote for anyone, it would be for the Greens based on their environmental focus.
However, I’m still not sure how the Greens stack up in terms of how they explain how they pay for it. This is still a major problem for all our parties and I’m afraid it makes all of them non-starters for me. I’m sick of the ‘can’t do’ narrative, the orthodoxy.
I want more choice I suppose – I’d be more likely to vote for a splinter group of Labour or the Greens – even the Lib Dems – if they espoused trying the sort of ideas discussed here.
Currently no one is. Maybe this is why we will be denied PR, because it might see factions within parties break up and new relationships forming?
Someone on the blog has suggested it being far too easy to not believe in democracy anymore but I can tell you it is far from easy.
I’m currently a non-voter and I’m not a proud one. It’s with a deep sense of guilt and shame that I refuse to take part and shred my voting card. I cannot even bring myself to urge you to do the same – it’s a deeply, personally held inner feeling and attitude. But I just cannot legitimise this ersatz democracy we live in anymore.
John Warren’s description of our politics as a cartel rings true to me. Beyond that, we can see that politics is now in some form of neo-liberal ‘path dependency’ – some sort of stability has crept in, free of new ideas, conserving the status quo who are now it seems in full exploitation mode.
PR could destabilise this – that’s why we are not going to be allowed it – just another form of voter suppression.
But there is realisation I think in the public mind that there has been a lot of greed recently and a separate Britain made up of people to whom normal rules of conduct do not apply has emerged but only because they just can’t help themselves, so in contempt of us that they are. So there is reason for hope – but just not yet.
As to when? – who knows – but a political answer to all this will get my vote if its compelling enough.
Strange how quickly some people seem to have forgotten about 2019.
Those who say their vote has never counted because they have always voted labour in a labour constituency got a big shock then.
I am talking about my constituency there, North West Durham, which got its first tory MP ever. Durham now has its first tory led council, even though labour has the largest number of councillors. All other councillors, including those who became independent after being labour, always vote with the tories now.
Even in FPTP things can change.
In the absence of the Labour Party behaving like a Labour Party I would like to see another party of affiliation of parties which actually encompass the Labour Values held within the 2017 and 2019 elections – without the disastrous 2nd referendum. I wonder if you would have different responses to the above if you had included those parties.
I wonder if there could be a Labour Assembly Against Austerity Party. There are thousands of members all over the country, very well organised.
Right now if we had PR I would vote Green, with both votes. Not because I think they are perfect and offer everything that I would like to see, but they are progressive enough to offer change in key areas of policy that I have no faith in Labour delivering while we have FPTP.
Where I live my vote under FPTP makes no difference, it’s a rock solid Tory seat, so I don’t vote. If there was the chance of either Lab, Lib Dem or Green winning the seat then I would vote. However two of them would need to stand down and then hope that Reform UK runs to take some of the Tory vote. I don’t see it happening.
I would hope that with PR Labour would commit to being a genuine progressive party. They would no longer have to suck up to the Tory soft underbelly of middle England which is required for them to win a FPTP election. It gets worse each time the Tories Gerrymander the FPTP seats of England. Lab would have to accept coalition and so would the Lib Dems and Greens. I know that there are purists in all three parties that do not go along with that, but the alternative is FPTP which keeps the Tories alive, getting 80 seat majorities on less than 30% of the total vote. Progressives need to bite the bullet and ultimately work together to stop the Tory menace.
FPTP gives us a two party left v right system, which in reality has become a one party right wing, neo liberal system that Labour simply props up when they do win until the Tories get back in. Under PR we would hopefully have a choice of progressives – Lab, Lib Dem, Greens, SNP working together, verses regressive parties like the Tories, Reform, DUP. Are you progressive or regressive? That would be the choice under PR elections. Far more of a genuine choice than what we have now and more democratic.
If there were a GE tomorrow I would vote, but honestly not sure who for. I am in a safe Tory seat so I might vote LibDem as they are most likely to come second. However, at the next election, the boundaries get redrawn and the seat is likely to be fairly safe Labour. So do I vote Labour to increase the chance of them beating the Tories, or vote for another party so my vote registers in the overall count?
Our borough council has been replaced by a county council. Not only that, but the number of seats has been reduced – more than twice as many constituents per ward (?) – all of which seems very anti democratic and designed to advantage the tories explicitly. No vote here this year.
Just come across this. I wonder if it will happen.
https://goodlawproject.org/were-ready-to-take-action-to-protect-the-voting-rights-of-young-people-and-marginalised-communities/
I hope so
Jo is good
I’d still like to see a discussion – and read Richard’s views on the various forms of PR. In the UK we mostly hear and read about PR discussed in terms of STV, an inferior system (it is still quite biased) to the various party-based systems that are in use by a considerable number of the world’s most democratic nations. As I recall STV is only in use with fewer than a handfull of countries as their system of electing a government and the two that easily come to mind (Ireland and Malta) have long-standing issues of deep-rooted corruption associated with it.
I certainly do not claim any expertise in this area and would very much like to read more of other people’s views on this matter. As a nation we went into the referendum on Brexit mostly ignorant and factional of the pros and cons so for such a large shift in such an important policy it would seem sensible that we educate ourselves on all the various forms of PR before settling on which one to adopt.
I would follow the advice of the Electoral Reform Society – I am not expert ion this and they are
To be thoroughly frank, I have quite a number of concerns regarding the bodies campaigning for PR (such as Make Votes Matter) in the UK – including the ERS. These groups all have significant political interests (they might well be ‘independent’ but they are far from being unbiased) and it comes as no surprise that STV is being pushed by them. Checking up on the histories of the people involved in these groups has been quite eye-opening and not an experience that has filled me with a great deal of hope. I would far rather have more articles from academics who (from what I have read so far) have produced several good pieces that detail the pros and cons of each system.
I also note that in their descriptions of the various forms of PR, the ERS have rated Party List PR quite poorly and cited examples mostly of closed-list system nations (Israel and South Africa): something of a conceit to say the least and not exactly an honest representation. I’d be interested in discovering what people in fully open-list countries such as Finland and Sweden have to say about the pros and cons of their electoral system as well as learning more about the intriguing ‘panachage’ system.
Having serious discussions to evaluate the various forms of PR seems vital if we’re to successfully adopt a new electoral system that accurately represents the electoral desires of the public. As a nation we should look before we leap on this matter.
Do you think anyone is unbiased?
Seriously?? I cannot believe you are getting so uptight about what form of PR the country opts for – and I really do not care about the leanings of any group campaigning for it. That’s irrelevant and, as Richard replied to you – do you really think anyone is unbiased.
The whole point is that any form of PR has to be better than FPTP by a significant distance. A FPTP System that allows a Party to come to power with only 43% of the vote and not just come to power but come to power with an 80 seat majority, meaning that they can do what they want, abusing that power, is essentially corrupt.
I cannot get wound up in the semantics of which form of PR is best – anything is better but the one that most represents voters wishes i.e. true PR is my preference.
I can get uptight about AV. No thank you.