There are rumours about that the Tories are switching into election mode, with an early autumn election on the cards.
The thinking is not that they will win, but that they will lose least badly then. To fuel that, they think that there is very little more that they can achieve by staying in office. And, they think Labour will make a mess of government so going to the country now brings forward the time when they can get back into office, after just one term on the Opposition benches.
I can see the argument. They have sorted Northern Ireland as much as they can. There is no more they can do on Brexit.
The small boat bill is toxic, and will not work, and they know it. But it has political merit for them at present, which will rapidly fade as the boats continue.
Strikes look like they will be solved with terrible deals being agreed by unions.
Inflation will fall. They do not want to wait for people to realise that prices will not fall as a result and growth will not happen.
And in parliament they have no idea what to do.
So, the rumours might have some foundation.
Equally, MPs desperate to not be unemployed may well beg for the last possible date.
What do you think? A poll:
Will the Tories call an autumn election?
- They will wait until the last possible date (38%, 416 Votes)
- I don’t know but show me the answers anyway (27%, 289 Votes)
- Yes (17%, 180 Votes)
- No (14%, 153 Votes)
- It could be even sooner - why not May? (5%, 50 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,088
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Autumn 2023 is a possibility if Sunak sees a bit of improvement in the opinion polls – say, going from 20-25 points behind Labour to 10 points behind. He might hope that the franchise-rigging Photo ID law will knock enough Labour voters out of the picture to deliver a hung parliament or a very small Labour majority. On the other hand, he might hang on into 2024 hoping that there will be a very fast drop in inflation (a bit like 1981-83) or that a “game changer” turns up (like the Falklands War in 1982). Overall, I tend to think that the Tories will hang on until the last possible moment. But autumn 2023 is not out of the question.
I don’t think it will be May because of Johnson and the standards committee report – almost certainly too close together. There again if it is the same date as the local elections they won’t have the visible hit of losing councils. They are currently on a high (for them) with Northern Ireland and the budget apparently being seen as good. I would expect them to want to go as soon as possible before peole realise how much their standard of living is affected, particularly when the cold weather comes back; the NHS fails next winter; the small boats keep coming. Perhaps May is right.
From the Tory point of view things can only get better than they were immediately after the Truss debacle finally proved that the Emperor and all his supporters have no economic or political clothes.
Also from a Tory point of view you cannot underestimate what a wonderful country they have created for themselves to live in.
An economy that hoovers up the countries wealth and deposits it exclusively in their bank accounts, ever increasing power over their opponents right to free speech, no accountability for dishonesty or criminality and a debilitated Democracy making it almost impossible to restrain them.
Why would they want to put any of this at risk by calling an early election?
One very good reason for not choosing May is that they won’t want to interfere with the Coronation
Or have the Coronation interfere with the election, take your pick. Even pushing it as late as the Thu. 25th means the dissolution would be in late April and Coronation would be bang in the middle of the campaign. i don’t see that happening
Good point
Very, very, very good point Roy.
Interesting. The party in power will obviously want to take advantage of its ability to decide the date of the next election, and it makes sense for the party machinery to be ready to roll at any point. But I would hope the other parties are doing likewise.
Trying to guess when they will press the button is entertaining, but in the end just guesswork. There is the possibility they hope that the inevitable fall in inflation later in the year will be a factor in their favour – except that your other blog today makes the point that the public might not fall for that since prices will remain high. I like your ingenious idea that some of the legislation now being debated isn’t intended to be enacted, they are just stringing it along to ensure they keep the extremist right wing vote but plan to drop it by calling an election. But that assumes a calculating cleverness which may be beyond the Tories.
I live in Bury North, which I believe is the most marginal constituency in the country. We’ve had 4 Mail shots from our MP James Daily in the last fortnight. This is very unusual, normally he keeps his head down. Especially since Johnson lost power. Local elections are in a couple of months, but these flyers specifically highlight our MPs profile rather than the council.
I could be wrong, but I don’t see much merit for the Conservatives to go for a snap election now. While there have been positive recent moves on the EU relationship, and Northern Ireland, and inflation, and strikes, neither the legislation on small boats nor the budget has landed to universal acclaim, for example.
I also doubt they will want to leave things to late 2024. Too much like the desperation of a sinking government holding out until 1997 or 2010. But 1992 might give them some hope.
If the polls improve they could go later this year, but I think they might hope things could improve even more by next spring or next summer (some movement in Ukraine for example).
Random events could be good or bad and Sunak will go to the polls when it looks like they have a decent platform for a good campaign to narrow the gap, and there is a good story to tell on all five of his pledges – including growth, debt and waiting lists. That may be later this year or next spring, after a giveaway budget, when (surprise) fiscal conditions turn out to be much more benign than expected. And before it become obvious that the recent pay deals are bad for the workers.
The point about the coronation (further above) is an excellent one. I can’t find any historical parallels of a general election in a coronation year, back to 1900.
If the pageant goes well, Sunak could take advantage of usual patriotic flag-waving and any temporary improvement in the public mood to call an election later this year.
But if it creates a feel good factor (why, I do not know) it will encourage an autumn election.
Defeat for the Conservative government is inevitable and the results of the local elections in May will be a very difficult short-term failure to shirk off, despite their lapdog media. But the Tories have nothing to lose by dragging things out till the bitter end. The conflict within their party is over and the far-right have won, they will want to see if their risible policies can bear fruit by stirring the blinkered niche of populism or failing that, double down on the the disaster they have been to date on our public infrastructure to scoop some other irretrievable prize and deal ‘one more in the eye for socialism’. They know this farcical bonfire will end, so it’s just a question of what else can they destroy before the majority can do anything to stop them.
I think the trial of Johnson will show that the internal warring is not over yet
Autumn this year. That gives all the Tory MPs time to have found other jobs.
The Tories want to remain in power, if possible, for ever.
That isn’t going to happen.
Like the Major government in the 90s they have run out of road. I argue that this time Brexit has added a very significant impediment to their re election.
Add in the destruction of the public realm on which ordinary people rely plus the billions they have wasted during the pandemic and the question, for me at least, is can the Tory party survive?
Reform UK has stated they will run a full slate of candidates. If they do, however the Tories theoretically recover, that 6 or 7 % of votes will do for them.
I can see the argument but I doubt the Tories will want an early election. They will hang on hoping something will turn up. In the meantime, they can inflict more damage to public services and divert money into private hands. They will aim to wreck as much as possible. To avoid a wipeout they will mobilise their base by intensifying anti-immigrant propaganda. Keeping Reform at bay will be a requirement. The aim is surely to make it impossible for Labour to survive more than one term. Labour have not helped themselves by promising such a lukewarm agenda for change.
“Strikes look like they will be solved with terrible deals being agreed by unions.”
At the risk of sounding like a clueless Yank, why do you believe the British unions will settle these strikes with terrible deals?
a) Because they have forgotten how to negotiate
b) Because they do not understand inflation
c) Because they think they are weak
d) Because Labour will not back them
The Tories will want to fight the election on the new constituency boundaries. They are selecting candidates for these new boundaries already.
“Once the consultation periods end, all four commissions will submit their final recommendations to the Speak of the House of Commons by 1 July 2023. The government must then implement the recommendations, via an Order in Council, no later than four months after the final recommendations were submitted. The new boundaries are then used at the first general election after the Order comes into force.”
https://polimapper.co.uk/2022/12/parliamentary-constituency-boundary-changes-what-you-need-to-know/
My best prediction is that they will call the GE for the Thursday after the Labour Conference (to mess it up) – which means 12th October.
Neatly spotted
That does look quite persuasive
Yeah, I tend to agree that they will want to go the moment the new boundaries are valid, because there are a lot of seats for Labour that won’t have ‘incumbency’ factors too, which will cause a lot of confusion, especially for seats where tactical voting might actually matter.
Agreed. I live in a constituency that is a solid Tory seat where the main contender is LibDem. However the new boundary will mean that Labour would become the main contender. The Tories will want to exploit that confusion in order to remain ‘first past the post’ etc…
Interesting (and amusing in a way) parallel drawn in this article between the demise of the Soviet Union and the coming demise of the UK:
https://journal-neo.org/2023/03/02/if-you-missed-the-collapse-of-the-soviet-union-come-to-the-uk-4-the-remake/
On your comment about the unions and the pay settlements –
“Strikes look like they will be solved with terrible deals being agreed by unions”
Jason Hickel’s view seems apposite –
“I always find it empowering to march in strikes… and yet I feel our demands are too small for the power we wield. Why ask for a wage deal when what we need is to establish democratic control over production and organize it directly around social and ecological goals”.
https://twitter.com/jasonhickel/status/1637127089294913539
Hannah
‘The coming demise of the UK’?
What have you been missing? We are already there! Have you been to A&E lately? Seen the potholes in your roads? Seen the closed shops on your high streets? Seen and heard the fascist rhetoric in the media? Stuff about small boats? Tampering with the voter system?
This country is in the gutter already and looking out of one. Some of us unfortunately love it down here; others – myself included can’t believe we’re here at all – but we are! We’re a failed state already in my view all because the Tories have refused to yield power and our political checks and balances have simply have been found wanting.
PSR
The article is pointing to a more fundamental collapse:
“Eastern Europeans of the late 1980s and early 1990s understood that politicians promising the same old things, and erecting the same old enemies, wasn’t going to change the reality those promises had created. Their politicians knew it too, but could only survive by pretending true was false, an essential skill of politicians everywhere.
Now the winners who think they destroyed Communism by being better are doing exactly the same, before our very eyes. It may seem far-fetched to assume this will destroy the UK as well as its present rulers – but that is what was said until right before Communism fell, and is less far-fetched than believing we would ever see a Western country follow the same path.”
This
“Whatever their politics, there is not one person on this earth who ever thought they would see the day when the United Kingdom, home of cricket, a parliament and monarchy the envy of the world and a Constitution so effective they don’t need to write it down, became the modern equivalent of the Soviet Union. All the same elements are there – the purges of the ruling party, voter restriction to stamp out undesirables and slogans, slogans, slogans.”
is rather persuasive.
However, I am more inclined to see parallels with fascism than the USSR, and agree that we are already there.
A point of self-interest: Truss and US banks have recently hammered many pensioners, like me, who didn’t get an n/60ths final salary scheme. My ‘pot’ has shrunk to the size of a jam jar because of the govt’s incompetence. And why do they not embrace MMT? The money tree which they say doesn’t exist would do a huge amount/ all that is necessary to improve the lot of people suffering badly in the cost of living crisis. (As the US court movies say ‘asked and answered’).
Byline Times (March) reports that an acolyte of Lynton Crosby – Mr Fascist Science himself – has been employed by the Tories by the name of Isaac Levido (according to Peter Oborne anyway – at least whom I would think would be well informed).
The Byline Times leader says it all in their first paragraph really (has Peter Jukes read ‘The Road to Unfreedom’ – it is reviewed in this edition?) :
‘Wedge issues; sectarian anger; communal tension; and divisive, demonising rhetoric: these are all common ploys of political parties that have run out of road. Having failed to address the material needs of their constituents, they turn to making the lives of ‘others’ worse so that their voters can feel better about theirs. This very much seems to be the strategy’.
Well, we know what’s coming then don’t we?
And what is worse is, that it might very well work! I’m telling you. Or a Labour victory may not be as crushing – which it won’t be anyway because of their insipid policies.