Issues relating to Ireland have been troublesome for British politics for centuries. Since 1802, when the Irish parliament was subsumed into that in Westminster, the parliament in London has had to almost continually address an issue to which it has never had any adequate answers, largely because barring total independence there are none. Today the problem of the Irish border continues.
The question that we now have is simple. Given that England, and somewhat surprisingly Wales, chose to leave the EU the question is where is that border with Ireland to be now? Johnson always ducked the question, but when pushed to deliver a supposedly oven-ready Brexit accepted the compromise that he always said he would never agree to, which was to put the Irish border in the Irish Sea.
Let's be candid. Johnson had no choice but to do that. The alternative was to make it a land border in Ireland and that would have breached the Good Friday Agreement that has delivered a period of lasting peace and relative prosperity in Northern Ireland. Not that I suspect the people of Northern Ireland weighed heavy on Johnson's considerations: I think the risk of sanctions from the EU and most especially the USA as a guarantor of that agreement was what forced his hand.
But the issue has not gone away. Johnson created the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill in the Westminster parliament. This remains on the floor of the House, providing an ever-looming threat to the EU that the UK might pull out of agreed arrangements. Its presence acts as a constant reminder that UK talks on this issue with the EU and others are never being undertaken in good faith.
That is the problem. The Protocol was always meant to be temporary. The deal was meant to be finalised. The EU is rightly demanding that it is. The threat of sanctions from the EU and USA has not gone away. And the mood in Ireland is changing. Sinn Fein is the largest party in the North. There is a real chance that it could lead the next government in Dublin. The Union has never looked weaker.
Despite all this, the Unionists maintain their demands, backed by the European Research Group far-right fringe of the Conservative Party. Their demand is that there be no border within the UK and that the EU have no jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, which it must if Northern Ireland is to be in the single market as is necessary to avoid a border in Ireland.
There is only one eventual solution to this problem. The people of Ireland are eventually going to vote for it. The legal mechanism to permit that vote already exists, although as yet no one wants to use it. But until then there is only one viable interim step that can work, which is to keep the border in the Irish Sea. There is really no room to negotiate around that. In this case there is also no way that the EU cannot have influence and some sanction over Northern Ireland. Wittingly or not, that is what the people of England and Wales chose. The Unionists in Northern Ireland may not like it, but the country to which they claim allegiance voted for this for them, with the backing of the very same people who now claim to be their allies in Westminster, which fact you could not make up.
What are Sunak's options? He has few. The best is to agree a deal. Starmer, who wants the issue resolved before he gets to office, will provide support. Then Sunak has to increase security in Northern Ireland because there will be backlash. And after that he has to be prepared to suspend the whip from any MP who votes against this agreement if it goes to the Commons, which it need not do but likely will. He has, in other words, to use Johnson's methods to rid the Tories of the ERG as Johnson once used it to rid the party of its moderates.
Will that leave a Tory rump? Of course, it will. But Sunak can't govern anyway, so that will make no difference. But it will at least permit Sunak to be seen to do the right thing on one issue before his ignominious reign as prime minister ends. And that is one more than Truss managed.
What chance is there that Sunak will do the right thing? I am not optimistic. But, as ever, I live in hope.
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There’s an unpleasant money-grubbing angle to the DUP in my view.
The cost of the NI Protocol was reported at £900m in it’s first year, and the politicians there must be looking at that and thinking that is £1500 per household in Northern Ireland, if we can garner some of that for ourselves, we’ll be able to say we’ve achieved something and get more votes.
Dividing costs by number of NI households is the wrong equation. NI is part of a union which enjoys fiscal pooling, so the cost should be £900mn divided by the number of UK households. Knock off a further 40% which was the reported set up costs and it’s not an awful lot of money.
Btw, if you say Day You Pay, it sounds like DUP in the local accent. Try it.
What about the border arrangements for goods and people coming from Great Britain to Belfast? There will have to be control points at Heathrow, Manchester etc which going on the present largely non-existent checks at the ports between England and EU countries will probably never happen. The Orangemen and the ERG are never going to allow N Ireland to be treated separately so the only viable option is a united Ireland.
Political careers, however long and varied, are defined in history by one event. Churchill – WW2; Eden – Suez etc.
Who now remembers John Major’s “Cones hotline”? Who remembers the “sleaze”? I do, but most now revere him for his work on the Good Friday Agreement.
Sunak is toast at the next election… and he MUST know that. So, Rishi, what do you want to be remembered for?
I wouldn’t pin my hope on any expectation that Sunak will put country before party. None of this abysmal bunch that has ruled the UK since 2010 has ever shown any inclination to do so.
Before the Brexit deal was finalised with Brussels and the question of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland was under discussion, Stuart Campbell of ‘Wings over Scotland’ proposed that, given Scotland had voted heavily in favour of remaining in the EU, the Scottish border should be the effective EU border, thus placing both Northern Ireland and Scotland within the EU. As far as I’m aware, no Scottish politician raised this possibility. However, given the significant hit that Scottish exports have taken since Brexit (Scotland apparently was the highest exporting part of the UK per head), this seems like a good idea to me.
Stuart sometimes gets things right
Mr Maughan,
Ironically, Scotland’s economic aspirations depend on those industries that the Union and Westminster cannot strip out and remove, as it does with absoletely everything it can remoce, or wreck (like banking and mutual financial institutions). The only reason that the following are no lost to Scotland is because they can’t be removed (typically by legislation, prerogative power or financial manipulation): Such as –
food (fishing, beef etc), and beverage (mainly, but not uniquely whisky), renewables (wind and tide), oil and related services, our technology and universities (that produce our strengths in such as digital games to medical sciences – but these will be lost, so we require to renew them in unreasonably short order).
The striking matter is that Scotland, per capita provides and extraordinarily robust conribution by providing a balance of payments surplus (£6Bn alone for whisky) . Everybody thought globalisation ended the need to worry about balance of payments was of low concern; but Britain’s preciptate decline, its over-reliance on services, and the changing dynamics of the 2020s has changed that. Independence is becoming more attractive for Scotland, not less.
What is always surpprising to me is that both Jacob Rees Mogg and Ian Duncan Smith are avowed and declared practising Catholics, yet over the Northern Ireland question, they ally themselves with the extreme Protestant and fundamentally anti-Catholic DUP, successors to the rabidly anti papist Ian Paisley; they ignore and resist the wishes of the Catholic population of the province who voted – along with a substantiial proportion tof the Protestant population, – against Brexit. Ian Duncan Smith has even ben heard to celebrate Henry VIII achieving England’s sovereignty and freedom from Europe – ignoring the reality that this sovereignty was won from the Vatican that IDS reveres.
This post reminds what a stain BREXIT is on our reputation and democracy.
Was it a bad dream? Did it REALLY happen?
Yes – it did………………..
John Warren:
Thank you for that nice little list of Scottish output.
Only yesterday I was talking about Sturgeon’s demise with a group of what I would call more progressive English folk and even they were of the opinion that Scotland contributed very little or nothing (since North seal oil declined) and was wholly dependent on our ‘generosity’.
Staggering, isn’t it?
Now you know why Brexit happened.
Please note; they learn nothing, and forget nothing. It defines Britain today.
This is an interesting read
https://davidallengreen.com/2023/02/the-seven-ways-the-matter-of-brexit-and-the-island-of-ireland-can-be-ultimately-resolved/
We are arguing the same thing, pretty much
“…the question is where is that border with Ireland to be now? Johnson … when pushed … put the Irish border in the Irish Sea. Let’s be candid. Johnson had no choice but to do that…” (Hopefully the ellipses provide brevity only and don’t change the sense of the quote.)
Not so: Johnson could have put the border between Ireland and Europe and kept trade free between mainland UK, NI and Ireland. It would have raised all hell in Ireland and in Europe, but he could have done it.
No he could not
That would have required Ireland to effectively leave the EU
Are you stupid enough to think that was something Johnson could have done?
I am not suggesting Johnson could have forced Ireland to leave the EU, and did not say that.
But, if Johnson had decided not to put a border either between the mainland and NI or between NI and S. Ireland then SI would have had to decide whether to put a border between themselves and NI or themselves and Europe. They would not have to leave the EU in order for there to be a border between SI and Europe, the border could just have related to goods having an origin in the UK/NI. So yes, Johnson could have forced that decision. At the expense, as I said, of raising hell in SI and Europe…
I post this because others have commented
But you won’t post again I suspect
WHat is this SI? Do you not even know its name is Ireland? There is no S in it
And why should Ireland have had to decide on our stupidity?
I have to repeat, you really are very stupid
It may have escaped your notice, David, but Ireland has been an independent country for more than 100 years.
And the English monarch has not even claimed the French crown since 1801 (a claim which was in any event illusory long before Calais was finally lost in 1558, even if the Channel Islands remained under English control).
But go on – please do explain how the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom could have “put” a customs border between France and Ireland. How is that going to work, in a world where the UK is unable to monitor or prevent the movement of goods between two EU member states? It makes no more sense than suggesting that Johnson could put an imaginary customs border around Tasmania.
Have you missed the fact that Ireland is a sovereign country and even Johnson was not stupid enough to think that he could control their borders?
Mr Jonson,
I can only suppose you are attempting some form of limp humour. You should, perhaps have pondered first on Brexit Britain’s frenetic efforts, and total, abject failure to manage its own borders, according to its own eccentric expectations on immigration, before thinking that Britain has the ability or power, or competence; or that you have the wisdom, to decide the borders of independent sovereign countries.
Unfortunately, your contribution, I’m afraid I must gently suggest, need only be stated to reveal its immaturity. Do you really think any politician or diplomat representing any interested party in the NI Protocol (save the capricious, unsteady ranks of Conservative politicians) would think of your opinion: ‘I wish I I had thought of that’?
In 2019 I was confident the internal contradictions of any brexit deal which meant leaving the Single Market and Customs Union and avoiding a border in Ireland meant Johnson could not get it done. I thought there was no way the DUP would allow the Tories to agree a border in the Irish Sea.
I didn’t contemplate that Johnson would simple tip the wink to the DUP and his back benchers that he simply wouldn’t implement an international agreed treaty with the EU.
Hennesey’s ‘good chaps’ theory of the British Constitution has always irritated, but I suppose even I thought the Johnson govt would not so cynically and explicitly renage on its own treaty within months.
If the govt. persists in diverging ever more from the Single Market – scrapping thousands of EU regulatory standards – and as you say Richard, the Irish Sea border will have to stay – even if the checks can be made ‘two lane’ and more electronic and efficient.
Quite funny to see Conservatives strangling themselves in their own internal brexit contradictions – but not so funny for the country.
I agree with Richard’s analysis of the NI Protocol issue, but the problem isn’t just about the complications of border issues and the lack of clarity in the UK Gov’s attempts to strike a compromise deal.
UK Govs have never really understood the cultures, histories and mindsets of the lands which have become the devolved nations, nor have they ever cared or shown any serious interest in doing so. Instead they have sought to impose their wishes and policies on the devolved nations, frequently without consultation. Brexit is a classic example of that, but plenty of others could be cited. UK treatment isn’t consistent or even-handed: N Ireland has a mechanism to secede from the UK (thanks to the GFA), but Scotland and Wales have no clear path to secession. Why have the predominantly English Govs of the UK acted this way? Well, sheer numbers of population and an arrogance and quasi-colonial attitude to others for starters.
There’s another problem at play in N Ireland: it was designed to be permanently a protestant-run state closely allied to the UK, but demographic and external political changes have altered that. The DUP however will go to any length to retain power, including sabotaging the democratic process in NI and denying its people a functioning government. This disregard for democracy will spill over into Westminster as they align themselves with the ERG wing of the Tories who are clearly jockeying to increase their hold on the wider Conservative Party.
I’ve long thought that the end of the UK would begin in NI and these latest developments could potentially bring that process closer.
Agreed
Fascinating poll on Peston last night, worth looking at
I missed that programme. What did the poll cover?
I will post it
The only logical conclusion given to simplify all of this is the reunification of Ireland. Maybe something good can come out of Brexit?
The DUP is now a minority party and Ireland now more liberal than Northern Ireland. The previous fears of protestants that they would be subject to the Catholic Church are no longer valid. It seems the younger generations want peace and are much less interested in previous partisan viewpoints.
Ken,
good post I only disagree with the use of the term – UK, substitute English and it’s spot on. My paternal grandfather of Scots Protestant origin/battle of the Boyne was so sick and tired of the very real and terrible religious divide in NI that he returned to Scotland permanently as a young man, many more have done so over the generations. Racial domination/colonialism dies a hard death right across Europe.
Thanks Stewart,
I used the term UK Gov because, like it or not, that’s what they are: they might be “predominantly English Govs of the UK” as I described them, but all undevolved powers remain at Westminster and they won’t be shy about using these powers to interfere with the democratic decisions of the devolved gov’ts, as we saw recently with their s35 over-ruling of the Scottish Parliament’s Gender Recognition decision. It is a measure of the huge bias of the media that it’s rarely mentioned that the Holyrood majority of 73% in favour was arrived at on a cross-party conscience vote after 3 days and nights of intense debate and was demonstrably a fair and democratic decision of the whole parliament. To summarily dismiss this decision is a clear demonstration of the UK Gov’s disdain for democracy in general and arrogant contempt for not just the Scottish Government, but for the whole concept of devolved government. Take note Wales and N Ireland!
I read at the time of the Brexit referendum that the majority of leave votes in Wales mostly came from the border region where a lot of English people live. I have thought for a long time that Irish reunification was the sane future though I am not sure how the Republic of Ireland would cope with the DUP disgruntled. There is no doubt for me that the DUP just want to be the biggest fish in a small pond but that’s over now anyway. It is ironic that they voted out of the EU membership of which was the very thing that allowed NI to have no border with GB as well as not internal Irish border. My favourite NI politician is Naomi Long a voice for sanity, I hope in the next elections they become the second party to form a government with Sinn Féin. Although not my decision to make I used to be against Independence for Scotland, now I am for it – it would do all sides a lot of good, shatter a lot of illusions.
I suspect that the EU with US as guarantor would have to play a major role in Irish reunification
That would be good.