The media is celebrating the fact that technically the UK is not in recession this morning as a result of the gross domestic product (GDP) data published by the ONS that shows that the economy is flatlining instead.
I have already published a brief, but I think appropriate, summary of GDP this morning, suggesting the serious limitations in its calculation.
I had this to say on Twitter this morning:
Anyone who seriously thinks GDP measures prove that the country is succeeding economically is seriously economically deluded.
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In my opinion the coverage given to the flatlining of the economy is to give the flatlining government cpr, although all experts are pointing to cutting their life support systems.
I agree but more likely it is just the usual Neo-liberal trope that ‘everything is right with the world and if you’re not thriving it’s your own fault’.
It’s all about personal failings being used to cover up an fundamentally flawed hierarchy in our society by vested interests.
And many will actually subscribe to that unfortunately.
You’re right, PSR. Economic Darwinism is at the heart of the neoliberal fallacy – if you’re not well-off, it’s a result of your own inadequacy. I think it’s mainly an attempt to deflect attention from the fact most wealth in the UK is inherited.
And for all that the Tories lionise economic growth, a simple truth doesn’t seem to have occurred to them – that the levels of inequality of wealth which exist in this country (and specifically that so many UK citizens are only just getting by – or not getting by, as the case may be) are the single greatest barrier to economic growth.
You are right about the economic angle of course Roy, but the one that worries me is the eugenicist one – that people are only suffering because of what they have done or not done or their own perceived and imagined weaknesses as individuals and even worse – as social groups.
On iPlayer there is documentary about the Holocaust called ‘How the Holocaust Began’ and the conclusion is – as Timothy Snyder would tell us – the only reason that Jews could have been rounded up and murdered in places like Latvia, Belarus and Lithuania in such numbers that overwhelmed the invading Germans was because the Nazis got help from local people who had their enmities and jealousies stirred up – the potential hatred was already there in those localities and exploited.
Now look at those still voting Tory here? There are obviously people who see the world as the Tories do. If we then started to talk about the intelligence of these people we might be accused of being eugenicists ourselves! It’s very difficult – which is why I reserve my ire for the people who stir up and feed society’s petty squabbles.
This is the problem with the ‘wealth porn’ on TV and elsewhere. Wealth is used as a weapon to say ‘Well, these people made it – wealth is real and can be attained so if they did it so can you. And if not – it’s got to be your fault – you’re not doing enough, therefore you’re not worth bothering about – go away or we’ll help you go away’. This sums up the Tory government’s attitude to me as put forward by those apes writing books called’ Britannia Unchained’ for example.
So the possibility of wealth is being used as an indicator of failure in others (when we know it’s much more complicated than that). But wealth could quite easily also be ‘Jew’, ‘Muslim’, ‘immigrant’ ‘teacher’ or ‘woke’ for example.
Currently, the Tory party and people like Nigel Farage and his acolytes are playing with fascist matches and already little fires are erupting like in places like Knowsley and the south coast.
At the moment the road to fascism is a footpath – but how long before it turns into a major road?
The Holocaust, Rwanda and countless other dark human episodes have taught us that civilisation is a very thin veneer over human existence.
But also if you don’t mind me saying, I’m quite frightened about all of this. And part of that being frightened is my own response to it. You look into the abyss and how many of us would jump in? I would when it comes to fascism. Some would say that if you fight with pigs you only get dirty.
Well fair enough, sacrifices might have to be made but those in society using the perverted political science of Fascism – the pollsters, political strategists MPs, party leaders, media moguls and funders – make no mistake – these are the people we must take any fight to. And a dirty fight it might have to be, with a lowering of our own moral standards.
The direction this country is heading in needs its head cutting off. Stamp out fascism there and we might just survive. As I said, I’m very frightened. It’s not looking good.
The more I think about it, the more I recognise that we deluded ourselves after World War II that ‘it was over’. It’s never over it seems.
Authoritarianism has to be switched on – and fascists know how to do that
Also a semi -irrelevant blind side report on Astrazeneca building a new plant in Ireland ‘because of corportation tax’.
Added to the ‘celebration’ of a flat lining GDP – it is not surprising there is general confusion.
BBC headlined corporation tax – but it was only after a bit further probing – that it began to become clear that the whole economic environment in UK – energy, labour, etc etc – ie the Brexit that dare not speak its name was the reason.
BBC asked the company if they didn’t want govt to be responsible and balance its books – ….”yes but’….
So there might have been a question – about whether govt can get away without ‘balancing the books’ – but of course as usual the question not asked.
This question has to be generally understood to be discussable by voters before the election – and by Labour!
With a headline corporate tax rate of 12.5% and apparently even lower rates which encourage multinationals to shift profits there, Ireland is clearly not a “normal rate” state, but a tax haven. The reported size of the proposed plant in Ireland suggests its location there may be as much about Brexit as tax “optimisation.”
Maybe we are in recession; maybe we aren’t. The measurement says we aren’t. This cut. Next iteration of the same dataset, may correct that; and we find we were in recession after all. After everyone has forgotten. This is economics. The facts change all the time. This ain’t science, not by a long, long chalk. Have a third go – they will land on the “right” result some time, or possibly never. Who knows? They don’t.
You know John Warren you are so, so right about so called analyses of market conditions.
My LA finance team has just issued the social housing development teams with a new development appraisal spreadsheet whose parameters have made all proposed schemes unviable within 50 years.
So, we’ve been locking horns with them about it, questioning their parameters. When you look at the assumptions about interest rates in this year and that year, it really all is guess work and a worst case scenario.
Then you say to them, why a 50 year limit? We need 60 years plus at this rate of inflation. And really, what is the life expectancy of a house? I’ve heard 100 years. So why are we ignoring another 50 years of rental income?
How many times have those Georgian and Victorian houses that are still standing been mortgaged in their lifetime?
Then you hear that the housing revenue account is where the city council has placed its biggest debts!! And then you realise the fun and games going on in LA finance which results in us having to jump through hoops.
And to me, it comes down to a common simple theme uttered here by out host – the ongoing perpetual problem of there being ANY EXCUSE by central government not to print and spend enough real money for what we actually need to do!
I am heartily sick of it – I don’t know about any of you.
It just proves accountants can always be destructive when they want to be
So true.
The fact we are not in a “technical recession” counts for nothing when millions of people are suffering a personal recession or even depression.
It’s another myth, just like the cpi inflation figures with millions of people suffering much higher personal inflation because they spend most of their disposable income on things they need and have no choice to pay for, mortgage, rent, energy costs, water, travel, council tax and food.
Even the telecom companies want their pound of flesh. They all plan around 14% broadband price increases in April. Well above cpi inflation as usual.
And what does the Tory Government tell us?
You can’t have a half decent, or anywhere close to inflation level pay rise because that’s inflationary.
They are inflicting austerity on those that need the most help by choice.
Agreed
There is something wrong with your site. It is not rendering the markup the way it should do.
You can’t see it built there is a glossary attached now – bit clearly something is not going right yet
We are on to it
Thanks
Richard
GDP is (or can be) measured by adding up everything that we spend…. but no distinction is made on what we spend it on. If I spend more on my electricity bill but less on (say) entertainment then GDP is unchanged. But “unchanged” really does not describe my quality of life…. it is clearly worse.
Why can’t a BBC journalist make this point? After the recent report they should be.
Noted
Correct me if I am wrong but isn’t GDP just a monetary index which conveniently excludes the effect of monetary inflation on actual activity? In effect, with 11% price hike over the previous 12 months this “flatlining” actually suggests an 11% reduction in real economic activity- not something to celebrate in my book.
You are wrong
GDP can be inflation adjusted for a start
GDP has many faults, but I am not sure what you ate getting at
Roy Grey – the attachment of ‘Darwinism’ is a false one, as the basis of evolution is that there is no purpose, the term ‘fittest’ is at best a misinterpretation of ‘fitting into an ecological niche’, not being ‘fit’ in any sense. Many of the tropes were invented by others to satisfy the Victorian need to justify the cruel racist and misogynistic class system of the time, and continue to be used (bit like the household myth of the national economy). A better term would be Economic Sneering.
Mr Griffin,
A well made point about ‘Darwinism’ and the grim, tortuous journey to eugenics, if I may say so.
Robert Kennedy highlighted thus issue very well too many years ago…
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/24/robert-kennedy-gdp
“Even if we act to erase material poverty, there is another greater task, it is to confront the poverty of satisfaction – purpose and dignity – that afflicts us all.
Too much and for too long, we seemed to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our Gross National Product, now, is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product – if we judge the United States of America by that – that Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage.
It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl.
It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman’s rifle and Speck’s knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.
Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.
It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.
And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.”
If this is true here at home, so it is true elsewhere in world.
Agreed