The FT notes this morning that:
Rishi Sunak has been warned by senior Conservatives that he would face a significant rebellion and certain defeat in the House of Commons if he tried to take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights.
Why does Sunak want to follow Russia and Belarus out of the ECHR (which has nothing to do with the EU)? Because he knows what he plans to do with small boat crossings is likely to be at the limits of legality, and easily open to challenge. That's why.
So what is his response? It is to get rid of the law, and not meet international expectations.
Why will some Tories challenge this (whilst others will, no doubt, cheer)? That is because there still remains within the party an element that thinks that being Conservative necessarily implies respect for the rule of law.
How big is that element? No one can be certain, but the suggestion being made is that it is big enough to guarantee defeat for Sunak on this issue in the House of Commons.
That, however, also means that Sunak cannot deliver on one of his five pledges: if he cannot deliver legislation to stop small boat migration into the UK that is compliant with the ECHR then he not only fails to deliver law on this, but can also do nothing to actually stop those boats.
Let me be clear: it is my belief that the way to stop the small boats crossing the channel is to provide legal ways of access into the UK and cross-channel ferry tickets for those who have succeeded with their application or who are thought likely to do so. I think that every aspect of Sunak's policy is wrong.
This point having been made there does remain an important dimension to this story. This is that if Sunak cannot get through legislation on his most basic commitments, because members of his own party will not vote for them, then why is he in office as prime minister? What power has he actually got to effect change in that case? Or is he already a total lame duck occupying Number 10 until an election can put him out his misery?
And what will that election be? Will it be a general election or might it be another vote of no confidence by Tory backbench MPs? At present, the second seems more likely, but that depends on whether or not a Boris Johnson survives his forthcoming trial by his fellow MPs in the House as a whole.
Meanwhile, the country will continue to stagnate.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Why? I believe it’s part of the Singapore project. We hear them banging on about low tax and hi tech, but i suspect the whole package appeals: that includes the dodgy human rights, authoritarianism and permanent government by themselves.
I find it really interesting that that Truss has popped up again.
What are they up to here? The Tories are up to something I feel sure. I think that we are being prepped for a return by Boris Johnson.
Sunak will be made to look weak.
Truss is obviously off her trolley.
But brave Boris will come back and save the day?
I would not put it past them to try this.
I am sure Johnson is expecting to be because in office late this year and at worst to lead the Tories again from after the next election
I’m sure this is what Johnson would like to happen, but given the current investigations going on in Parliament about partygate, I’m far from convinced that he will succeed.
His attempts to change the constitution so that Parliamentary investigations have to follow the same rules as courts may give him some chance of getting away with it, but the May local elections will follow soon after the live broadcasts from the committee hearings and things do not seem to be going to plan for the Tories.
There are other problems lurking too. For example, the renewed investigations into Russian involvement in US affairs may also turn up information relevant to the UK. Or Mone may have things to say when her partner is dealt with in Spain. Who knows where the next yawning pit may open?
I agree, all those risks exist – but Tories live in a fantasy world of their own
I keep worrying about the fact that for two years 90% of the political news and political narratives, concepts, and ideas on BBC and elsewhere have been within the Conservatives – including 90% of what Labour talks about.
It may not matter – Labour is 20 points ahead – but surely ultimately, where the battle of ideas takes place matters?
So far the ground is almost entirely defined by cutting taxes , by migration and boats, by keeping public spending in check. Surely there has to be a way of talking about govt ‘debt’ being a good thing and not all ‘debt’ in the generally understood sense anyway, and boosting the economy by public sector activity – with private sector following on, instead of the usual assumption – private first public following on .
There ought to be a word defining this phenomenon – of one party defining the ideas battleground and the other colluding and agreeing.
Maybe ‘One Dimensional Man’ – is in the ball park.
If we can’t follow the law, we will disapply it!
This is reminiscent of the Iceland palm-oil strategy. Iceland promised to removed palm-oil from all of its own-brand products by a certain date. When they found they couldn’t do it for everything, rather than ceasing to sell the remaining products, they removed the Iceland branding and continued selling them anyway!
Iceland of course is one of those countries that has changed its name. It used to be Bejam.
Something I’ve encountered, which seems terribly appropriate to mention: ‘I Bought Myself A Politician’ by the MonaLisa Twins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QAKz_cxTlQ . As it says, they’re cheaper by the pair…
While the country may be stagnating, this is what is happening to our political system. Selling off our land through freeports to foreign countries, through the mayoral system. Can’t believe I’ve only just read this.
https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/politics/zahawis-behaviour-shouldnt-shock-its-inevitable-in-a-country-on-the-brink-of-a-corporate-take-over/