I just posted these comments on Twitter having watched Sunak speak to the nation on his 'vision':
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My predictions for Sunak for 2023 are: (I know you like bulleted lists)
1. Sunak will be ousted from within his own party (the Conservative & Unionists know they can’t win the next GE with him at the helm)
2. Johnson will run for the leadership (promising the earth, he’ll probably be part of Sunak’s ouster too)
3. Sunak will start earning lots of money from making speeches and from non-executive directorships
Same old, same old really. It’ll be like the last days of Rome; all circuses and no bread.
What effect will the Chinese letting Covid run amuck have on inflation? It’s bound to affect production and the world depends on Chinese factories for so much these days (fools that we are).
Some
I hope not much
But we’re back to supply chain disruption again
I’ve read that, traditionally, the mourning process following the loss a parent or elderly family in China is pretty long-lived with lots of minor rituals/routines over the space of a couple of weeks or more. I suspect that these will be frowned upon or even directly curtailed by the authorities to keep workers in the factories. Given that they have effectively decreed their own equivalent of the Great Barrington Declaration (with a partially-vaccinated population), it remains to be seen just how bad things will get. It’s going to be pretty dreadful in terms of loss of life but the outcomes on the economy will depend on how much control the state can impose on the behaviour of those grieving and, I suppose, how successfully they keep the news from the hospitals hidden.
How will they run the factories when, as seems inevitable, they all have Long Covid?
They won’t all have it
Many might
A lot more than Covid running amuck is happening in China right now. Getting people back to work is not going to be that easy.
Here is some footage of people in Nanjing laying flowers in front of a statue if Sun Yat-Sen on New Year’s eve and then releasing balloons. This will be seen as a a direct challenge to the Chinese government.
Then there is footage of people carrying blank sheets of paper, again on New Year’s eve
This is followed by a large crowd trying to storm the headquarters of the Henan Provincial Bank. Apparently there was a run of the bank and it closed its branches on 31st December with thousands, maybe millions, of people loosing their life savings. The crowd rip the number plates off a police car and then turn it over. Henan has a population of 99 million and is one of the poorest parts of China.
Lastly there is footage of a demonstration on New Year’s Day on one of the main highways in Henan about the closure of the bank.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6K0a8q-xMng
This appeared on a Taiwanese TV station owned an the Falun Gong, an organisation that is suppressed in China, and was probably shot illegally.
The commentary is in Mandarin, but I think I have explained enough for you to follow what is going on. The reason why it has Chinese subtitles, is because all educated Chinese can read Mandarin even if they cannot understand the language when spoken.
He also has a plan where everybody does maths until age 18!
Don’t get me wrong, I love maths and took Maths, Further Maths & Physics to A-Level. Definitely the best school years of my life, but maths isn’t everybody’s cup of tea and we need diversity.
Just another opportunity for him to show how out of touch he is.
I spent my life doing applied mathematics. Were there enough talented mathematics teachers we would already have math-literate pupils by age 16 and enough who were enthused to continue to study futher. This is like the J Hunt weekend NHS without more medics & other staff.
Aye there’s the rub for in that lack of teachers what good can come of more ‘lessons’?
Just start with the big lie, eh? As you have previously and logically said, Richard, inflation will inevitably fall over the coming year as the effect of the exogenous shocks caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine work their way through the economy. But Sunak wants to take credit for it – “we will halve inflation” – no you won’t pal, it will happen, but not as a result of anything you or your miserable government do.
The supplementary lie here (which the government will undoubtedly peddle in due course) is that restricting public sector pay will be a major cause of the fall in inflation. No it won’t, but it will certainly assist the coming recession.
True
What is amazing to me is that he even bothered to make this statement which came over as very unconvincing to me.
But some will lap it up – there is no doubt about that – and think that Sunak is doing his best.
The Tories are a shameless lot and will do anything to stay in power these days.
Why is he obsessed with “growth” and what does he mean by it?