When I discussed my post reviewing 2022 in retrospect yesterday with one of my sons I mentioned that I was musing on keywords around which to build a similar post considering 2023 in prospect. I mentioned recession as one theme, and in alliterative mood, he added revolution and regicide. I responded, suggesting I was more reasonable when at the same age. I do, however, get his point: 2023 is going to be littered with flashpoints and few likely signs of immediate prospective hope. So, ignoring some of my son's advice, but not entirely avoiding the sentiments, the following are my words for the year to come.
Recession
This singular word is going to dominate the economy in the coming year, much as inflation did in 2022.
Recession is easy to predict. We do at this moment need five things from government:
- Low-interest rates so that businesses and households can survive 2023.
- Lower taxes on the lower paid so that those facing the cost of living crisis have increased hope of doing so.
- Higher taxes on the wealthiest to tackle the growing inequality and resulting stresses in our society;
- Increased government spending when neither households or business can drive the recovery that the economy needs;
- A vision for sustainability, otherwise known as a Green New Deal.
We are getting none of those things right now. Instead, we have high-interest rates and the forecast that these will last for years, even as inflation disappears altogether by late 2023 or early 2024, as even the Office for Budget Responsibility is forecasting. These policy choices will crush businesses and millions of households and spill over into the rental market meaning disposable income is going to be the scarcest known commodity in 2023. Recession follows as a matter of course. The government's tax and austerity policies simply reinforce that likelihood, and in all this there is no economic vision of any sort whatsoever.
Recession in 2023 is unavoidable in that case. The Bank of England and OBR agree: what is left to debate is how bad it will be. My answer is that it is likely to be very bad indeed unless (and I have to hope) there is a change of policy somewhere along the line as the policy failure to date is both appreciated and reversed. But, with the Opposition calling for the same measures that the government and BoE are delivering it falls to those outside government to deliver that.
Protest
Unlike my son, I am not convinced we will see revolution in 2023. I share his view that we will see a great deal of anger. It's an easy prediction to make when so much anger is already in view. The many strikes now ongoing, and which are going to continue, are sure indication of that. They reflect anger at four things:
- Inadequate pay offers.
- A government that refuses to understand the position of most people who are utterly dependent on their pay to make ends meet.
- Austerity that has destroyed so many public services.
- The desire for a vision of something better.
If there was a vision for a better future then people might be able to withstand the current pressures. But in plain sight people can see that the current crisis has very largely been created to shift wealth upwards within society, away from the majority and towards a tiny minority who have much to gain from it. Interest rate policy is, in itself, indication of that. So too is the refusal to deliver inflation-matching pay rises when it is so obviously necessary to offer these when the public services are failing all around us.
I cannot predict the direction anger will take. No one can. By its very nature anger is unpredictable, which is also why it is so dangerous, which it will be for this government and for society at large. But I think a tipping point has been reached, and the anger that now exists about policy that has been designed to deny people the incomes, services and future they believe to be possible cannot be contained now, and we will see a great deal more anger on display this year.
Monarchy
Regicide may not be on the cards, but in a febrile atmosphere Charles III has demanded a full-blown coronation this year. I think he has seriously misjudged the mood. The nation might have mourned his mother, but that does not mean that it will feel comfortable with his coronation.
Is it really true that eugenics provides him with a right to govern?
What too is the role of a single church in the state, and why when most are not believers in this country is it that a single church can ordain the new monarch?
Is the implication that there is still a God-given right to rule?
And how does that stack when those who seem to hold the belief that they are given a God-given right to control parliament are wrecking lives?
The coronation may provide an opportunity for early summer celebration and not much else. But I am not sure of that. Whilst protest is not likely, questions will abound and the mood that the constitutional settlement that we have cannot survive will become more prevalent, I think. That may, of course, be wishful thinking on my part, but my sense is that the time for reform is coming. It will not happen overnight, but the disquiet a traditional coronation might create could be a catalyst for change.
Renewal
Sometime soon Labour might realise that having no policies is not a platform for government. They might even appreciate that adopting the austerity agenda is very bad news when it will so clearly fail the country in 2023. And there again, they do neither of these things. It could just be that they think that doing Tory policy better than the Tories is the only way to succeed in this country, and so will carry on as they are.
I have to agree that this approach will likely be enough to deliver them an election victory whether in 2023 (which I consider possible, mark in September as the most likely time as the Tories will want students to be on the move and so unlikely to vote) or 2024 (which I think more likely, but only just). But, if that is the case and the Tories are decimated as expected, and deep buyer's regret about voting Labour rapidly takes hold, then the anger in the country will become very much more obvious.
I am, of course, aware that no incoming political party can deliver miracles, except by changing the mood of the country that is. If Labour is unwilling to do that, and with the Tories on the ropes and likely to be out for some time, an uncomfortable political space will be created, most especially in a first-past-the-post electoral system.
Will the Tories continue their progression to the far-right? I think that is very likely. Labour will have taken over the centre-right by then.
So what of the left? Is there really no appetite in a country hungry for change for left-of-centre politics? That would be an absurd idea. That said, I cannot see any left-of-centre challenge to Labour before the next election. I can after it. Will that come from the Greens, or the LibDems? In Scotland it very obviously comes from the SNP, and in Wales it may be from Plaid, although Labour will take more time to dislodge there.
My point is that for the sake of democracy, freedoms and wellbeing that void will have to be filled and with Labour intent on moving rightward either an existing party might see a quite extraordinary rise in its fortunes (and I cannot see Plaid or the SNP seeking to won seats in England, so this narrows the opportunities) or some movement for renewal has to fill the space.
I have never thought this very likely until now. I do, however, think that the tipping point has been reached where a new channel for anger has to be created to turn it into viable action. Might that happen in 2023 given everything else that is happening? I really don't know: the future is by definition unknowable. But equally, I think it is possible.
Whatever happens, 2023 is going to be interesting, even if it might also be turbulent, deeply uncomfortable and on occasion quite dangerous for many in this country, where the wellbeing of many will be at risk to a greater extent than for a very long time, and all because a few want to exploit most people in the UK for their own gain.
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Thought-provoking as always, Richard. Interesting idea that SNP could stand candidates in England. I think a lot of voters up north could go for that. However, dislodging Labour in Wales might be a mistake while Mark Drakeford is first minister as he is obviously a real socialist and, with proper funding, would be happy to implement the measures you recommend.
I tend to agree about Mark Drakeford – an honourable and decent man as I see him
Although he appears to be refusing to negotiate with the nurses …
You’re absolutely right.
The total lack of backbone in the labour party is actually frightening.
The continuing decimation of the NHS and Public services will anger most people but we need someone ,group ,to organise and lead a unified ,strong left leaning change.
The best way to do this?—
Well that’s the problem to be tackled and now.
Just a word of warning about a Green New Deal, based on my experience of the previous Green Deal. I have evidence that, as with the PPE procurement fiasco, there may a Green Deal scandal waiting to be uncovered. The main reason it has so far not been revealed is that the victims are mostly individuals who are either unaware of the extent to which they have been exploited or don’t have access to the support needed to pursue their grievances. At least some Green Deal Providers, Assessors and Installers were appointed without due diligence as to their experience or ability to deliver what was required. Subsequent regulation and oversight was nominal, if any took place at all. There has never been a review of the programme to establish if it delivered any real benefits. Costs to the customer were hugely inflated. Energy savings were grossly overestimated. The only aspects done efficiently were the publicity materials promising that repayments would not exceed savings (the “Golden Rule”) and the creation of debt. And the mechanism for obtaining redress via the Energy Ombudsman and Green Deal Consumers at the Dept for BEIS is complex and long drawn out. It has taken me 5 years to get a Notice of Intention from BEIS, with no indication of when it will be enforced. To be honest, I don’t know who, in the present climate, could be trusted to deliver a Green Deal that would bring benefits for the Planet and the public.
The Green Deal and Green New Deal are utterly unrelated
I prefer your son’s alliteration… and admire the passion that lies behind it.
Recession.
Of course, recession is not inevitable – there is a policy response that would prevent it (and be fiscally neutral, too). That policy is one of redistribution. Take £1 from a wealthy person and their behaviour/economic activity does not change; give £1 to a poor person and they spend it and (by definition) GDP is raised. It’s not rocket science.
When the Government says “growth is a priority” they are lying – as they know that redistribution would achieve that goal. In fact, what they really mean is “we want to hang on to our wealth and will say/do anything to achieve it”. (So, I guess that means recession IS inevitable!)
Revolution
Unlikely… but the Romanovs probably thought that to! Besides, revolution does not have to be defined by violence – just rapid change. I think that IS possible…. and I agree – Industrial unrest in the public sector could develop into something bigger… in a similar way that the so-called “winter of discontent” ushered in a Thatcherite Revolution (or the cult of individualism/selfishness), a collapse in essential services in 2023 could yield a return to a more collective approach to our problems. I hope so.
Regicide.
No. I get a completely different take from most people I know. They were always going to give Charles the benefit of the doubt… and they are happy with what they see. They are looking forward to a bit of a party and a public holiday and some even feel that the Christmas message was more in touch with public sentiment than anything from government or press.
Thanks
I cant find it at the moment but The Guardian did an article on Poverty on one of Englands richest areas.
The comment from a vicar(?) was the people were getting angry about the state of the roads because even if you are ‘rich’ and mortgaged to the max, wrecking a tyre can wreck your monthly budget and wrecking two can push you over the edge.
There could be many sparks that light the fire and we might not manage to predict them all
John Boxall, I think this is the one you’re looking for. Surprisingly, it’s actually from the BBC, not the Guardian. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-63978499
It was on the Beeb – he called it his “two pothole” theory that already-stretched households could maybe survive one unexpected financial incident, but a second would push them over the edge.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-63978499
article still on BBC News webpage for now … “Cost of Living: the hidden poverty in England’s least deprived area” it is about Prestwood in Buckinghamshire, under three miles from Chequers. Apparently the locals have asked the last five PMs to call on them but so far all they get is by way of response is “not enough time”.
The Tories are probably banking on whipping up English nationalist fervour at the time of the May local elections to distract from the major gains that opposition parties, especially Green, candidates may gain. Whether sufficient political unrest will arise from the recession is as you say difficult to gauge. The UK is not France or Russia, so it may be unlikely unless some incident occurs like that in the 20011 riots/looting. Certainly Starmer{s Labour is totally unprepared and any revival like with Corbyn in 2017 extremely remote.
Bless your son.
You and I were younger in much better times Richard – we were not being worked to death over A levels and then catapulted into debt for a degree with much less guarantee of a job or a future as he and thousands of others will be/have been.
Having been to many University open days with my son, going to university is propelled forward by a lot of hope as much as by grades. Uni is a matter of faith now.
I welcome his anger and hope that it can be turned into something positive. His Dad will show him the way and I hope the son listens. I’d highly recommend that he does so.
RECESSION
My worry is that people get beaten down by this and just accept it, especially when there is no effective opposition in a sea of no new ideas. People endure. It is strength but also a weakness to be exploited by those of little merit. And don’t they know it, damn them.
PROTEST
The forthcoming election might well be the pinnacle of protest in this country as we as a people get used to less. And, as we are a society managed along fascist lines, those who rule will always find a new enemy for us to hate if we dare to ‘look up’ at those who are actually making us poorer. Identity politics will continue to divide us and prevent us reaching some sort of critical mass for change.
MONARCHY
Charles is an opportunity for some of us to dream about the imagined England that has been programmed relentlessly into us since we were young. He will be a distraction for some from their troubles. However, I agree with you about his coronation and also point out his other problem – Andrew. And then of course there is the Diana Problem and the Sussex Problem. I think Charles’s court will let him down because that it where the self-interest really is and I expect a number of missteps which might very well be the highlight of my year.
RENEWAL
Hmm…………not yet. Not this year. Let’s review that after the next election. What Labour don’t have is a personality. Don’t get me wrong, I prefer polices over personality anytime. But we are in an era of personality driven things. Keir Stymied does not have that in my view. He is an outline with nothing filled in who does not seem able to convince himself let alone anyone else. Neither do the Tories (but they have personalities they could use). But I can’t tell you how much I want to be wrong about Stymied.
Find your hope!
And my son seems to be enjoying the support he is getting…..
I found my hope Richard.
It’s here of course, on this blog.
Other than that I believe in persistence.
Thought provoking as usual Richard.
Recession – well it seems inevitable in the absence of anyone trying to take any protective action. Though in relation to your suggestions, I do wonder how much real autonomy the Bank of England has in setting base rates that much different from the US and ECB – there must be a worry that taking an entirely different tack (much lower rates) would risk a Kwarteng-style crisis.
Protest – yes, it may not be revolution on the streets but it is clear that resentment against the status quo is growing. We do have to hope though that this is focussed on our current administration, rather than the whole machinery of government.
Monarchy – an interesting one. I don’t get the impression that anyone is wishing we still had President Boris Johnson, or President Liz Truss, with no constitutional means of change until their fourth anniversary of election. At least monarch isn’t an executive role. But the new King can’t take things for granted. The experience of Johnson has shown that monarchy as much as government now needs a properly thought out constitution – which of course could mean a different constitutional head. As for the Church of England, I can’t see that anything would be lost and potentially much would be gained by disestablishment.
Renewal – I share your frustration at Labour seeming to have an absence of any vision of a better future and policies to get us there. And agree that it would be more attractive if the next Parliament were balanced such that the more radical views of the Greens and Liberals were influential. But I am not sure about the SNP who seem to me a centrist party very similar to Labour (as they have been in practice when in power); their aim for secession from the UK looks as right wing as the Tories’ secession from the EU, though I do sympathise with anyone’s wish to be free of the currently dysfunctional Westminster.
Also thought provoking
Thanks for all reactions
President doesn’t need to be an executive role either; there are other models besides the American one. What would be required for that though, and could also address so many other issues, would be a written constitution.
….and what would be required for that would be politicians with integrity and principles. Forgive me if I’m a little depressed at that prospect.
I’m not sure where to post this…. And feel quite free to ignore!
Back in October I posted a comment that I would be very interested in the number of external, decorative, Christmas lights / effects in my area this December. If commensurate with previous years I would consider the cost of living / cost of energy to be exaggerated, while significantly fewer displays would be a potential measure of people’s fears.
I can now state with confidence that here, where I live, the eternal decorative Christmas lighting was almost non existent. Wreaths on doors, “Santa stop here” wooden signs, static elves in windows – all as previous years. No change. But external light displays – almost none.
Obviously I don’t know why. Could just be coincidental that this year people have said no. Could be it’s no longer fashionable. Whatever. But I’m going with the theory that this medium sized, very safe conservative seat, is feeling the crunch. And if here is feeling it like that, conditions elsewhere must be much more horrific.
Professor Murphy, please keep posting. Please keep the faith, sometimes your column / blog is the only light I see. You have much more optimism than I can summon. Take care. Happy new year and stay safe and well.
I agree re Christmas lights
And Christmas cards? Just disappeared. Only 25% of the usual number this year
We are in a cost of living crisis
I live in a Tory safe seat and where I live you’d think a royal decree had been sent out for people to put their lights on and put on a brave face for king and country.
Or they are just showing off in our land of conspicuous consumption?
Christmas cards continue to trickle in – from abroad too. Having said that – they’re all much smaller in size than last year.
“What too is the role of a single church in the state, and why when most are not believers in this country is it that a single church can ordain the new monarch?”
I agree with much of what you have written here, but I think this line is possibly the wrong way around – Charles is already the new monarch; it might be argued that the coronation is merely the monarch becoming head of the Church rather than head of the country, in which case it makes perfect sense.
I also tend towards being in favour of an established church, but only because of comparisons with, say, the United States where not having one has made the situation infinitely worse. Here, nobody is worried that the Church of England is somehow secretly influencing government policy – and the small number of bishops in the second chamber are as nothing compared to, say, ex-Tory party treasurers!
And I also believe that having an established church is one of the lesser problems this country has. Yes, we should be debating it, but it’s merely a sideshow to the full-blown constitutional crisis we are in.
(Note: I am not an Anglican but I am a member of a different Christian denomination; I might reasonably argue that I am less represented in the political system than the non-believers!)
Let’s not forget that in 2023 some crucial decisions will have to be made in and for N Ireland in relation to the current stasis in politics, government, international legal agreements, the Good Friday Agreement etc. The UK Gov will have to reach consensus with the EU on the N Ireland Protocol and that consensus will have to juggle the sensitive and opposing views of the EU & UK on Brexit and interpretation of international legal obligations, while satisfying the economic needs of the N Ireland economy. The current Secretary of State for NI is Chris Heaton-Harris and the Minister of State for NI is Steve Baker, both self-described “fierce Euro-sceptics”, so sensitive compromise is doubtful. Also, neither has any cultural or historical connection with N Ireland, so their knowledge of its history and culture will have been acquired second-hand and filtered through their own values and beliefs. It’s all very similar to the Scots being told what’s best for Scotland by London governments with no real understanding of Scotland, its history, culture or the opinions of its people.
That lack of “on-the-street understanding” is not going to help with resolution of the current political deadlock there either, with the Tories supporting DUP policies when the balance of power has already shifted towards nationalist parties. Has anyone in Whitehall thought about how the MLAs of all the other parties feel about their salaries being reduced due to the current impasse which was brought about by the DUP’s wrecking moves? Why should they be penalised for the actions of a political party which is blatantly trying to prevent a democratic transfer of power? Meanwhile NI is without a functioning government. The USA is also keeping a close watch for any adverse impact on the Good Friday Agreement, so the whole scenario in NI has the potential to have major repercussions in UK governance, not least being the potential to accelerate the break-up of the UK.
I really wonder what is going on with Labour. There are so many things they should be shouting about but instead appear complicit with this terrible government. Energy company profits, the withdrawal of our rights through various bits of legislation, the list is endless but Labour remain silent.
It suddenly occurred to me – could it actually be that they think things are so bad that pointing to the various horrors may in fact spark a revolution for which they are not prepared and for which they don’t want to take responsibility?
Just a thought, in the absence of any other explanation for Labour’s abysmal lack of opposition in the face of the worst government in my lifetime.
Looking at 2023 I see the war in Ukraine continuing to be at the forefront of political and economic events, and unless Putin accepts defeat he will bring Russia down with him. Neither NATO nor the EU are ready with a Marshall Plan. In England there is a real danger that popular anger and the vacumn left by the policy free left and ruined right will be filled by a right wing populist movement, Farage or worse.
Having lived in 3 different European countries for over 25 years in total, the Netherlands,Spain and now France I can say with certainty that the level of passivity in the UK far exceeds that of these 3 countries. It gives me no pleasure to quote the words of Pink Floyd from 1971 – quiet desperation is the English way.
Good track
I suspect the inevitable media ‘review of 2022’ will be excruciating for the Conservative Party, because it simply bypasses the Conservative reliance on public short-term memory loss, instantly to forget the total ‘pig’s ear’ (my apologies to even=toed ungulates everywhere) of everything they have touched in Government, with their self-serving, narrow-vested-interest, austerity driven, repressive, return-to-the-early 19th-Century laissez-faire, scorched-earth policy of Conservative Government practicedcynically and ruthlessly over more than a decade in Britain; and bust everything they touched. And the concertina effect of showing the Johnson-Truss-Sunak show (Fortune-Bird without the wit or intelligence), all in a heap is both hysterical and risible.
So what to do in ’23? Stop arguing with them. It is a waste of time. They are incompetent and even stupid, but they can always swamp the airwaves and press with misinformation, and have the skill to and resources to buy the best spinners of cheap, ephemeral one-liners that guarantees to drown out mere facts. So start laughing at them. The British public will instantly see the joke – the Conservative Party itself, and can understand, the joke is on them for voting them into power.
Draw on the power of British humour. Laugh them out of office. They certainly supply an unending opportunity for satire, and the most ridiculous, endless assembly line of every stripe of anti-engagement with real problems politician; the cynic, the charaltan, the dim, the greedy, the gullible, the over-ambitous, the reckless or the downright wanton. They are all there, always; and so approprite for the Conservative Party. We make the mistake of thinking they are interested in debate, or facts, or the real world. They aren’t. They are only interested in hanging on to power, no matter what, or how. This is beyond politics, we are living in a world of illusion they are making up as they go along, and discard and renew every single day.
The king does not “govern” – that is the nonsennce of his position. Absolutely not a shred of power.
What would happen if a Johnsonian Prime Minister refused to visit and speak with the crown? Nothing?
The King has to sign a bit of parchment for anything passed by Parliament to become law. Presumably a Johnsonian prime minister would send a lackey with the quill and ink to do his duty.
Or just blatantly forge the Kings signature. Who is to stop him? Didn’t stop prorogation.
REVOLUTION
I think it was Charmers Johnson who said that a revolutionary situation existed when the following formula was fulfilled;
Social Dysfunction + Elite Intransigence + X = Revolution
Your son has undoubtedly spotted the elite intransigence and with things breaking down, exacerbated by Brexit, War and Pandemic, and the Enough is Enough campaign we might be heading towards fulfilling the two main factors.
REALITY
The problem is X, it was regarded as a necessary tipping point or trigger, and was usually taken to include (or need) the support of the armed forces and the police (states having the control of legitimate violence). Now although the military has objected to being used for strike breaking it is still doing it. Those of us who remember the miners strike will see no chance in the police standing aside if people did take to the streets.
I’m very much afraid the we are missing the X factor altogether.
We also have another absence, one I have noted elsewhere based on an observation by Milton Friedman; he said (our job) is to keep alive alternative ideas that once seemed impossible but which can become inevitable. There is no shortage of ideas but there has been a systematic squeezing out of those who might support them, in the Labour Party there isn’t a group in waiting who could bring this about. Calls to re-found the party failed in 2011, it has turned its back on stakeholder capitalism (as proposed by the likes of Will Hutton) and has few visionaries (with honourable exceptions). I agree with Jonathan and Janet (above) it is the lack of ambition from Labour that is truly frightening.
You do not have to be a revolutionary to get the shape of a winning platform; Relief, Recovery and Reform. That was FDRs way of putting it it. The reforms remember lasted till the 70’s. The reforms we need are big (energy transition, more self reliance, citizen and civic re engagement); they need, to use a cliche, to be “oven ready” or at least to have been trailed, the reason is simple to grasp; if you aim for the stars you may get the moon but if you merely plod along with a tweak here and there nothing actually changes (events dear boy). Right wing politicians often restate the case for libertarian, free market, small state, policies no one with clout on the left ever states the alternative in simple plain language – the golden rule, mutual aid, insurance against life’s vicissitudes, and fairness – all to often there is a shrug – life isn’t fair. That’s not the point, the point is we can make it fairer. There is a totally different philosophical approach to winner take all, what you can achieve in a 5 year term may be modest but if you give up on the alternative philosophical outlook you give up the crown Jewell’s.
Thanks