I had just written my first post of the day (after over-sleeping) when I read a thread from Russ Jones, who has just written a book called 'A decade in Tory'. His analysis is worth sharing:
As he then suggested:
That seems like a good analysis to me.
I have little to add, except to differ explanation as to the cause of this, which was in my first post of the day.
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There is certainly something in what he says. I would not put it past the Conservatives to lick their wounds in opposition and come back again with a new narrative.
PR may not be a panacea – just look at how it has played out in some European countries recently – but it should allow both major parties to break into two or more pieces, so as hoc coalitions could be formed after each general election rather than the factions within each party having to cohabit. For example, Labour is an (at least sometimes uncomfortable) electoral coalition of more centrist social-democratic elements, and more radical socialists tending towards communists.
It’s obvious to me what he is missing (and there is no such thing as a Labour Party either really – and don’t we know it!).
The real engines of the Tory party are all external – the media and their financial backers at home and abroad. As I think John Warren has pointed out, the Party element comes into it – we can have as many PMs as the Tories can rustle up, but the Tory Party will not relinquish power. They will even try to get Johnson back in.
They will continue I think to fend everyone off until the real election in two years time – they will hide behind that like they hid behind the FTPA etc., just like May did, even though even then they were not fit to govern, so riven by disagreement as they were.
What is interesting and worrying in equal measure to consider is if the Tory backers rotate out of the Tory party and into Labour. There is evidence to suggest that Labour is actually trying to get that to happen and Blair essentially did it with Murdoch in he 1990s.
I think that we’ve got to remember how politics really works – and it’s oft repeated here – it’s been captured by vested interests and is just a front really – disposable theatre.
And the other equation of course is that enough people don’t think like Russ – they are gullible enough to think that the Tory Party is still viable and that they are ‘doing their best’.
I’m not convinced – but if it does happen, we need to watch what Labour gets up to don’t we?
Labour usually fails because right wing careerist never deliver.
It is interesting to note that the shadow chancellor has the occasional tendency to show signs of psychopathic tory-like tendencies when talking recently about immigrants/immigration and the long term sick and benefits.
Chilling…….
Well, it looks like Johnson for PM. That is Andrew Bridgen MP (ERG) believed, and sais it with dread in his voice. I just dipped in to Nicky Campbell’s BBC radio programme. I couldn’t understand a single word I heard, but they appeared to be members of the Conservative Party; but at one point I thought I found out what Conservatives think Socialism is, and what they really don’t like about it: Socialism, it appears – is honesty. Really. As far as I could figure it honesty is the one characteristic they admit they don’t believe they can ascribe to Johnson (who is ‘Boris’ because he is a chum, even if they haven’t met him); so it must be Socialism. Thats what I heard, the best I could make of it.
Social democracy is caring
And Tories don’t care
“if Labour bring in PR”
Labour’s culpability laid bare right there.
The rotten core of the UK’s rotten political system isn’t the Tories, nor the UK’s Tory-biased press (both are mere symptoms). Its ‘Labourism’* – the cult-like belief that ONLY the Labour party can represent the working class, which means ‘NO’ to PR & ‘NO’ to alliances. EVER.
Though Labour’s membership is now pro-PR (it only took them 100 years – Why???), the cult is nowhere stronger than in the party’s leadership of whatever stripe: it speaks volumes that Starmer and Corbyn both share not the slightest desire to ditch FPTP. Shameful.
* The left of centre academic Jeremy Gilbert nails Labourism here… https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/only-way-labour-win-ditch-labourism-corbyn
“If Labour bring in PR” is the big if.
Starmer has worked to systematically undermine Labour’s own democratic processes for the past 2 years, making it harder for the left to be proportionately represented at a local and national level. It’s no surprise then that he is not backing PR.
I’m sure that the Tories would describe themselves as a “broad church” of diverse views, but that does not alter the fact of the internal civil war that has been going on in the Tory Party. This civil war has arguably been won by the extremists within the Party like the party within the party, the ERG. They are the Tories Militant Tendency, the difference being that they won. One of the architects of that victory of the right may well run again this time in Boris Johnson. Let’s not forget that it was his purge of one nation tories that led to the rise of Liz Truss and her madcap ideas.
One final point, in that list of factions we have those described as xenophobic English nationalists like Braverman and Patel. Quite ironic really when you consider their background. They would like nothing more than to deny to others the opportunity of the good fortune that they and their parents had.
The last Tory PM ever? I’m tempted to say no – as long as FPTP remains/ They could get wiped out at the polls next time, but the Tory voice would remain strong as they control most of the press and have influence over other media. Because of this they are unlikely to die a death like the old Liberal Party did. A move to PR though would probably split them for good, see the emergence of a new Farage gravy train Party and the end of Tory rule as we know it. It’s PR that will kill off the Tories.
We must have PR in place of FPTP. That is the stake through the vampire’s heart that will stop him ever rising again to suck the blood of his victims.
If Johnson got back in – well, that is going from the ridiculous to the notorious.
In fact, it would definitely be a real ‘end of history’ event.
The end of democracy and the end of serious politics. The end of a country too.
But what kind of PR
Scotlands government has PR the dhondt PR system but it’s a weird system
Would each country England N Ireland Wales Scotland have an equal number of votes ? No of course it wouldn’t , England would not agree to it.
So for N Ireland Wales Scotland it would not be PR each of those would still be overruled by England , unacceptable
I think your idea of equal votes for each constituent nation a little odd within the UK context, to be honest
Don’t think the separate countries within the UK need equal number of seats in Westminster. Maybe there could be some weight given to seats allocated to the smaller countries as there is in the EU parliament. But I would guess most of the dissatisfaction with Westminster by the Scots and the Welsh at least is that under FPTP the people they vote in rarely get any say in Government and the Scots have never voted, as far as I am aware for a Tory majority. Under PR that would change, ie the likelihood is that the SNP, Plaid, Greens or Labour in some combination would commonly form a coalition and represent much more closely the views of the smaller nations in the UK.
Scotland last voted a Tory majority in 1955
Whatever your gloom, I find that cheering. If they have any sense (I know probably not) the Tories will bring in PR before they fragment. Then Labour can split too and we have a better battle of ideas and plans. I’m always optimistic. Ideally the UK will also become a group of independent nations so that we can have a real time test of different policies in each nation.
No, it will take the split of the Conservative Party to achieve PR. Not even the split of the Labour Party would do it; the Conservatives, in one piece would plough on, impervious to the deomcratic deficit; they would revel in One Party Government; a righteous victory for the National Interest.