I think we have a government in place this morning. By which I mean the last time I checked, that seemed to be the case. I cannot be sure that will be true before I get to post this in a few minutes time, so I might check again before doing so, just in case. And that is not a joke: that is simply a reflection on the state of chaos into which the Tory government has descended.
I am making no predictions this morning. Any attempt to do so would seek to apply rationality to a situation where reasoning has departed the scene. So let me offer a reflection instead.
As is well known, the major political parties in the UK's ludicrous first past the post electoral system have always been very broad coalitions. They have, usually uncomfortably, embraced very wide ranges of opinion out of the simple necessity that any prospect of power demands that they do. And sometimes those coalitions fail.
Labour has been failing to reconcile its warring factions for some time, to its detriment.
However, their fights are mild when compared to the breakdown in relationships in the Tories.
The now, very largely departed, left of the Tory party might say that they warned of this with good reason.
The factions remaining in that party, from the far-right, through the Brexiteers, via Tufton Street, to those who retain some vestige of Tory political pragmatism, have very obviously now ceased to cooperate in a way that makes any chance of the survival of a continuing Tory government impossible. When MPs from the party resort to violence to push MPs through voting lobbies that is obvious.
Whether there is even a rump of the Tory party of any valet left for the factions to fight over in the strange belief that the brand might have a remaining value must be open to doubt.
But in that case a dangerous vacuum is opening on the right-wing of UK politics at a time when fascism is rife. How to fill that vacuum and keep the fascists out is my concern now there is not even a hint of Tory moderation on view.
This government will, of course, fail. That is inevitable, sometime soon. There will be a Labour government. It will appear to have a big majority and so it might be expected that it should deliver stability. But the circumstances of the moment, by which I mean the economic crisis to come as a result of mounting household inability to manage debt, plus a void on the political right, suggests that stability is the last thing we might get.
The Tories have failed, at just about every level, and might even cease to exist for all practical purposes. But right now a policy-timid, technocratic and austerity-inclined Labour government may not have the solutions the country requires, however big a majority it might command. We are living in dangerous times. Chaos might continue. And that is rarely helpful.
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I think you are right, though I so wish you were not. It’s hard to see anything else but what you forecast Richard. Thank you and your contributors.
We have had so many WTF moments in recent years that nothing should shock anymore. But, actual physical violence as alleged last night is unbelievably shocking. In fact, if true, it’s beyond shocking.
And, despite their massive poll deficits, there are still some that would vote for the Tories,
Craig
P.S. Who is doing the morning media tour?
Your last paragraph is prescient. The paucity of thinking across the current political spectrum is a great cause for worry.
Thank you for all your effort to address this, I live in hope!
From a practical perspective consideration of how that void might be filled would need to avoid falling into the easy option of limiting the possibilities by discounting certain routes simply because they may be deemed unpalatable.
Despite the most obvious seeming possibility being a newly formed party outside the existing Westminster structure the difficulties of breaking through that structure would make that a less than optimum route to achieve the necessary level of political success for such an enterprise.
A less obvious route offering better chances of success might be via an already established party within the existing Westminster structure.
What would be useful would be an explicit definition of the key descriptive term – fascist/fascism. What would such a party look like? What would its key features and characteristics be? Would it have to exhibit all those features and characteristics to the letter straight away in order to satisfy the description or would there be room to consider the possibility of a more gradual shift over time from one state to another?
Whilst Fascism remains an ever-present threat in this country, also I think that it is reasonable to conclude that the far-right forces that have dominated this country for fifty years are currently at their lowest ebb\
The policies that the Tufton street mafia have been pushing for nearly 50 years have been proved beyond all salvation to be an unmitigated disaster.
The British Media that joyously welcomed the Truss mini-budget stand revealed as lying idiots.
The City of London has shown yet again that it is totally incapable of standing on its own two feet and only survives courtesy of “The State” that once again has bailed it out. The level of Irony is off the scale.
The Tory party has been reduced in plain sight to what it always is, a conspiracy against the British people.
So yes, never underestimate the danger of Fascism, but we must not lose sight of the opportunity this moment represents for major reforms to return to honest, democratic, competent, intelligent and humane government.
No way would I vote labour when this can happen in the party.
https://skwawkbox.org/2022/10/20/labour-right-attacks-byrne-for-too-focused-on-poverty/
I feel quite sick at the idea, having been a labour member for quite a few years. Bad enough that Starmer has gone against all ten points he was elected on, but to say that a labour MP is too focused on helping people in poverty just shows how far rmoved Starmer is from party roots.
Now I’ve read that the unions have voted for more spending on armaments, I’m wondering what sort of world we have, that unions can do that.
Fascism grows when two or more of several factors apply. One is that the lower middle class – classically called the petit bourgeoisie – feel both completely out of control and unable to look to any sort of government to protect their interests. Another factor is when nationalist resentment and anger has been built up over time, with release only offered by flag-waving xenophobia, and – often – strong, charismatic leaders (though these can emerge later). A third factor is when working class organisation has been broken or diminished, and parties that used to back their interests seem no longer interested. All these – and some more – did apply in 1930s Germany, of course. They also applied in the 70s and 80s in Britain (a fascist movement which I was very involved in fighting in south-east London and Croydon at the time and which was very confident and active). Different in 70s and 80s Britain of course, and it can be argued Thatcher’s promise to the lower middle classes (the home owners now so fervent Brexiteers and Tory members of course) undermined the fascists, at the same time we were literally forcing them off the streets (control of public rallies is integral to fascism). Are we near those factors now? I wouldn’t have said so, but a deep and ongoing recession, with house prices stagnant or declining, poverty growing and fears for the future, and a savaging of SMEs (from energy bills and decline of discretionary spending) are all very possible in the next few years. This is not inevitable and being aware and alert is very important.
Perusing the discussion threads on that Skwawkbox site provided a further example of policies which are likely to have a negative impact on voting.
Apparently, following up the claim made, it would seem the present Labour Party leader has recently publicly committed the Labour Party to introduce stronger hate crime legislation likely to include some questionable criminal offences.
If this is indeed the case the second of the two possibilities presented earlier would seem to be the most plausible route to filling the void mentioned in this article.
Of course they are voting for more spending on defence. Haven’t you noticed the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Rightly we have supported the Ukrainian people defend themselves against the marauding mob. Yes Europe needs to defend itself. No we can’t depend on the Americans when Trump could get elected shortly and give his mate putin whatever he wants.
Some opinion polls are suggesting a Tory wipe out, if and when they finally call an election. In itself this should tell us everything that is wrong with our politics and especially FPTP. Let’s say the Tory vote collapsed and they got just a handful of seats. I think this is wishful thinking, but let’s say they ended up with as many seats as the LibDems usually get. It would not alter the fact the Tory press would still be there. The LibDems hardly get any favourable press coverage, but the Tories, even after massive electoral defeat would have friends in high prices controlling much of the media, especially print media.
I despise the Tories, but as a democrat I think that if they get 20% of the vote they should get more or less the same number of seats. And I hope the Labour Party, basking in the glory of potential Tory wipeout and fantasies of winning 400+ FPTP seats, don’t forget what the membership just voted for.
Labour delegates back motion calling on party to back PR
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/26/labour-delegates-back-motion-calling-on-party-to-back-pr
I also notice that everybody’s friendly fascist Nigel Farage, Mr “Rent a Quote”, has come out with his answer. His new flavour of the month Tory seems to be Suella Braverman. “I got rid of David Cameron, I got rid of Theresa May, I’m quite proud of that really.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1685245/nigel-farage-return-politics-gb-news-dan-wootton-conservative-party-ont
I would much prefer the Tories get a fair number of seats to reflect their support
A total Labour landslide really does not fill me with joy
Well, that didn’t last long; another day, another PM, another Cabinet, another Government: always Conservative, never elected. That’ll work.
I am afraid I do not agree with you, Richard on ensuring the Conservatives have a “fair number of seats”. The easy jibe would be to say that given what the country has been put through; precisely how many seats is fair? Five? Ten? More? More seriously, my problem is that the Conservatives are not clinging to power in the National Interest. It wasn’t the national interest that produced May, Johnson or Truss. The fourth in that list, and second unelected doesn’t fix it. Penny Mordaunt (a likely PM candidate) led PMQs in Truss’s absence; she made of it a pitch for the top job, and used the words “national interest” about ten or more times, when it was manifestly clear she was not seeking to defend the national interest, but the Party interest.
I write it again. Party is faction. Party serves only the acquisition and retention of political power; nothing more. As Lord Acton said, “power corrupts”. Party does not serve national interest, save in Party interest. Party has membership to maintain a tenuous direct link to the public in a parliamentary democracy. Membership (or money, because money delivers power), encourages Entryism. Another Conservative government, with a leader internally elected is a solution only to the interest of Party.
Allow me to raise another question. For a newly elected Conservative leader to be invited by the Crown to form a Government, it is presupposed it can form a legitimate, viable Government. Following the last few days, weeks and months – on what grounds could anyon claim to the Crown that a new Conservative PM, who will be elected under a special new system, conjured up in mirror-and-smoke-filled-rooms (we can’t go through another 54 day election, and the MPs have probably has enough of the baleful influence of the unrepresentative Conservative membership – unrepresentative even of the elected MPs). How does the Crown execute that duty with a straight face; when nobody – precisely nobody – could conceivably guarantee that the elected Party is even capable of unity. The proof we trnasparently have – is that they can’t.
Listening to some of the Tory M.Ps this morning, it’s all about saving their skins, so that is why they will not call a General Election. The ” country ” doesn’t matter. They will elect another ” leader “, and stagger on until 2024, causing even more damage.
If the tories do what they should do and take the whip away from those who did not vote on fracking, there should no longer be a tory majority and there should be an elction called today.
Overtaken by events now
Given the mutterings this morning of corronation of a new PM by the Tory MPs, and their presumption that this new PM would then have a mandate to lead the country for the next two years, I think perhaps the fascist party already exists. The question will be whether we allow them to get away with this politically – playing musical chairs in cabinet seats, while we all sit by and watch them undemocratically horse trading for power.
Though Labour, Lib Dems and SNP are already calling for an election, hopefully they will spice up their message, by asking people to get out on the streets and demand one is called as soon as possible. I’m not terribly optimistic of what they would do once in power (assuming an election ever comes), but I think a functioning goverment might be a good place to start.
Time for Johnson to reappear, as if by magic, to rescue the Conservative party and seek a new mandate?
It is happening
Not only to rescue the tory party, but he thinks his return is in the national interest!!
https://twitter.com/OnkenMoose/status/1583093172670189569/photo/1
Entryism is surely the defining reality of faction-ridden Party politics, too often hidden by the warm syrup of nostalgic continuity (encouraged by the Party-Press PR fog), to which Party pays its polite, meaningless respects.
Ever since UKIP and the ERG effected their fast, capillary absorption into the mainstream of the Conservative Party (which perhaps brought out the inherent, unavoidable but now explosive tensions struggling for control of the Party), is it not at least possible that a more likely outcome is the collapse and divisio of the Party into its actual ideological silos?