At long last, the Tory leadership election hustings are over, and the votes have been cast. Next week we will have what is supposed to be a government. It will make a change, maybe. That, of course, depends on the actions that Liz Truss might take.
A review of the articles listed in just one FT newsletter this morning makes clear just how big the problems facing the country, and so Truss will be:
You can add almost any number of further issues to that list, from failed water companies, to pay strikes, to the need to actually reform the energy supply system in the UK, including its pricing, and so much more that I have been discussing for what now seems like a lifetime, but has probably been somewhat less.
I wrote several more articles on this yesterday. This was in The National:
As I said there:
In 2022 we do not have that hope. Long experience, from the time when Thatcher deliberately engineered a massive recession in the early 80s to smash British industry and break the power of the unions onwards, has taught us to be used to governments that seem set upon making life worse for most people (and I know Labour was not as bad, but the Tories have dominated this era).
This policy of confrontation, where government acts in the interests of big business and the wealthy but not in the interests of anyone else, has now reached the point where the government is simply abandoning the country to its fate whilst letting energy companies and banks prosper from our misfortune.
This is not just the politics of neglect though - this is bankrupt politics. It is the politics of denial that there is anything that can be done when it is glaringly obvious there is. That this type of politics cannot continue is as obvious as the fact that, without a massive U-turn from Truss, there is going to be uncontrollable anger this winter. So what is needed is a politics that does better than this.
I did, of course, go on to discuss the conditions for change.
I also have an article coming in The Mirror today (I am assured, but have not seen it as yet) and wrote another yesterday for the Big Issue, which the editor described as 'terrifying'. That will be out soon. I was also interviewed by the Guardian and, on unrelated themes, also wrote an article for Bloomberg Tax.
What's the point of saying this? It is to note that the effort to highlight the crisis to come has been demanding, and I think worthwhile. The best summary of that effort remains 'Surviving 2023'. I remain doubtful that we will survive the winter, let alone 2023 as yet, which is the fear that has motivated this work.
Now we must wait. Like the convicted person awaiting sentence we know that something unpalatable faces us, but we just do not know what. Truss might turn out to be broad-minded, and the refusal to commit to anything in the leadership election may have been a pragmatic step to secure power with the intention of doing something entirely different from the things she hinted at during that campaign. I could not rule that possibility out so duplicitous is the Tory mindset. But I also think it unlikely: that simply does not seem to fit her character.
So, I am worried, but from next week we might at least be able to address the real crisis - much of which will, I fear, be made in Westminster, with the rest being manufactured in the Bank of England.
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I suspect that Truss will, despite all previous utterances, ‘Do a Sunak’ and implement measures to limit the damage of the energy crisis as her advisors eventually point out that we’re all going to hell in a handcart otherwise.
As with Sunak’s policies during the pandemic, I expect we’ll see measures implemented piecemeal, with policies implemented a little later than needed to be, many of them poorly-targetted and wasteful and some sectors of the economy ignored altogether.
However, if it is enough to stop complete catastrophe, that will be enough.
The concern then is that we’d see a bump in her ratings (as did Sunak) and she might well call and then win a snap election next summer. The wrecking would then continue at a later date.
Of course, this assumes that Truss has advisors who aren’t cretins or she will listen to sensible voices in the civil service. Not a given.
Mariner wrote: “….and she might well call and then win a snap election next summer.” The SNP has already begun preparations for a General election in 2023 and has started to encourage party members to come forward for consideration as future MPs. The SNP is also planning to move its independence campaign to a new level in 2023 and views a Truss premiership as being just as effective as Johnson was as a recruiting-sergeant for Independence. After the anti-Scottish invective aired during the interminable Tory Accession hustings, there are polling indications that support for Indy is already increasing after a fallow period.
Just to add to my earlier post, I think that there’s a fair chance that, even if measures are implemented which keep the economy afloat, there is no guarantee that Truss would end up in a strong position next summer.
The data about job vacancies in the NHS released yesterday shows just how much on the brink the service will be this winter. If we’re lucky and there aren’t any large waves of Covid caused by new variants, we might just about get away with things. If there is a harsh winter and Covid has an impact there will be disaster. Not that either of the candidates for PM have really mentioned the NHS during the hustings!
Agreed
Last night SteveH mentioned the influence of think tanks.
Daniel Stedman-Jones in his book Masters of the Universe has a lot to say about.
This is from wikipedia “”In Britain and the United States, the neoliberal right built a “dazzling array of think tanks”, which became the preferred vehicle of neoliberal thinkers.[3]: 336 Notable among these, according to Jones, were the American Enterprise Institute, the Foundation for Economic Education, the Institute of Economic Affairs, the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, the Adam Smith Institute, and a group of think tanks emanating out of the Atlas Foundation, including the Fraser Institute, the Fisher Institute, and the Manhattan Institute.[3]: 134 These think tanks brought politicians and businesspeople into contact with neoliberal ideas and thinkers and raised the public profile of free-market policies. In particular, the Heritage Foundation had a significant influence on US president Ronald Reagan—claiming on its website that nearly two-thirds of the proposals they suggested to him in their policy guide Mandate for Leadership were implemented[6]—while the Adam Smith Institute had appreciable sway with the Thatcher government. Jones notes that many of these institutes were funded by wealthy businessmen, such as Charles Koch and Joseph Coors.[3]: 163–164 ””
The Heritage Foundation claimed it wrote two thirds of Trump’s legislative program.
and at a conference I went to , Stedman -Jones gave a talk on the history of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEHJlvbdQIk&t=1376s
Thanks
I agree with everything you say basically.
The adherence to Thatcherism is pure stupidity.
The whole bang shoot – pretending that taxes are not Government money; that unions cause inflation by just asking for decent pay and conditions; that privatisation creates choice and world beating services; that austerity works ; that a low wage economy works; that markets can regulate themselves; the great car economy sans environmental consequences – even that it enabled the so-called democratisation of the USSR.
All these things have been undone by the revelation of time. Thatcherism has been caught out and revealed.
We had the opportunity in 2008 to see this. That was however, just a warning.
What is going to follow is the ‘The Great Reification’ – where all the feelings and doubts about what we’ve been doing all these years are going to be seen in broad daylight – I hope!
Thatcherism is no longer relevant and its time our politicians let it go. That’s the challenge before them if they could only bloody see it.
I so appreciate your work Richard, thank you, and thank you to your non troll contributors too
I have a sneaking suspicion that any Truss plan for “targeted” support re energy will essentially be aimed at middle England and the Tory shires. Her view will be that many of the worst off don’t vote so she won’t care. Tax and VAT cuts will not help them, but they might be enough to keep Tory middle England on side.
Truss will be Thatcher on steroids.