This document, which as far as I can see has not been subject to any denial of authenticity, was circulating over the weekend. It was issued by Tory MPs wishing to be rid of Johnson. Shared on Twitter, I post it here as the mainstream media seem to have ignored it:
What will happen today? Who knows? But I have a feeling that the Queen might have to endure at least one more prime minister. Even if Johnson survives this week his days look to be numbered.
PS: rarely has a post been overtaken by events quite so quickly
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How do you feel about your prediction last December that Johnson would already be gone by now?
Have you noted there is a vote of np confidence today?
Pretty good suggestion, I reckon
What’s not to like? Tories damned if they do, damned if they don’t. They all voted for the imbecile in 2019.
I did like the scenarios at the end.
a) Mendacious Fat wins vote of no-confidence just, goes for early election……… & tories are wiped out.
b) Mendacious Fat wins vote of no-confdence just & waits till 2024 …………………& tories are wiped out
c) loses vote of no-confidence & next head-tory inherits toxic legacy ………………& tories wiped out in 2024.
If he goes, party gate etc etc will drag on & on & on … nicely staining the party in time for 2024.
Prediction for 2024, no tory seats in Scotland or Wales. Scotland goes for independence.
I see that a no-confidence vote will be held today.
Fast & thus giving Bunter little time to rally what is left of his troops.
I do hope he wins with a narrow majority, thus giving him more opportunity to destory the tories.
Back from a meeting with some politicos in Portcullis. Place was humming…
Consensus from a small group:
– Johnson will win but not by much
– Tory party will be left massively divided
– Johnson will have his vengeance
– Public will feel ignored and be angrier.
– Both Wakefield and Tiverton looking like Tory losses
Bad news in short term as Johnson continues to do damage.
Better news in medium term as Tories likely to lose next election big time.
Question as to whether Johnson goes for an early election, thinking the electorate still back him.
Pretty safe bets but no worse for that
What a revealing document.
So, they think that their COLC policies are failing just because of Boris?!!! Not because they are mean and niggardly? They have totally lost the plot. They are not doing enough and that is still a party problem never mind Boris.
Even their first worst years (2010-2015) were called ‘mid-term blues’ – attributed to anything but their shit policies.
This document shows you just how out of touch the Tories are – it’s all about party ‘delivery’ and shows very little of any feedback loop or impact assessment.
Thank you for sharing.
Fascinating. I wonder how he will try to manoeuvre….
I once shared a journey with a woman whom I gathered had known the Johnson from childhood. We did not discuss him but toward the end I asked just one question: what was the driving dynamic in the Johnson family? She thought for a minute, before saying “Success. They all had to make a big success of something, it didn’t matter what.”
Johnson was then sent away to prep school aged seven or eight.
In this I see the golden thread. He is literally terrified of rejection, to the point of not being able to integrate failure within his view of himself. He wields authority as would a child at prep school: tomfoolery for effect; placating the powerful; avoiding being skewered with responsibility at all cost; allowing no-one to become close; survival in the moment; keeping friends by rewarding loyalty; belittling the weak or threatening.
But the problem is not Johnson… the drivers are structural, and in the end, global. This is happening, in different iterations, everywhere. Of the available alternatives, to my mind the only candidates with the scope to grasp the issues by the roots and pull the Conservative party renewed into the twenty first century are Tom Tugendhat or possibly Ellwood. Rory Stewart maybe. Jeremy Hunt has the brain but not the punch. But Liz Truss, not a hope. So I think the Conservative party – and sadly the country – are in for a rocky ride.
I fear the new manager bounce as is often seen in the world of football.
Whilst this will be another nail in his coffin, or if he goes, the Conservatives will continue. Every new day in power will see more suffering, hunger and fear.
The plates appear to be moving so perhaps Conservatives MPs will realise Johnson’s number is finally up, but I still expect he will win this ballot albeit fatally wounded.
Just for comparison:
* Theresa May won a vote of confidence in December 2018 but resigned the following June.
* David Cameron lost the Brexit referendum in 2016 and resigned.
* Michael Howard resigned after losing the 2005 general election.
* Ian Duncan Smith resigned after losing a confidence vote in 2003.
* William Hague resigned after losing the 2001 general election.
* John Major resigned after losing the 1997 general election. Major also resigned in 1995 to force a “put up or shut up” vote which supported him.
* Thatcher convincingly won a leadership vote against Anthony Meyer in 1989, and won the first round of another leadership vote in 1990, but as four votes short of the majority needed to avoid a second round, and she resigned two days later.
* Heath resigned after he failed to win a majority in the first round of the leadership election in 1975, after losing the two 1974 general elections.
* Heath narrowly beat Reginald Maudling in the first leadership vote in 1965, after Alex Douglas-Home resigned after he lost the 1964 general election.
Before then, the Conservative leader emerged through an opaque process of consultation and consensus in smoke filled rooms without a ballot. To be fair, their electoral success over time suggests it may not have been the worst idea.
Well, well, well…. Cats out of the bag – or what?
I see the Guardian is reporting that 23 of the Fat Cats who fund the demonstrably disastrous Tory party of Borisovich – to the recent tune of some £18 million – have signed a letter describing those who would vote against him, on the no confidence motion, as “foolish” and swearing their undying loyalty to ‘The Convict’.
And these are the ones who are out in plain sight. ‘Nuf said…. but I hope the voters of Wakefield and Somerset read it.
As my wife tweeted, this is clientelism in plain sight
Does not get much more naked than that. In order of priority:
– donors – especially the City
– MPs, especially the sycophants who have mostly been put on the payroll
– that diminishing number of Tory party members – antediluvian all
Then maybe:
– Voters in marginal seats
The rest of us can go hang.
This article in the Guardian by written by a ‘Secret Tory Staffer’ has the ring of truth about it
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/06/tory-mps-boris-johnson-ministers-pm
“I shouldn’t tell you this, but Tory MPs have a new survival strategy: ‘Boris? Who’s Boris?’
Secret Tory staffer
Ministers will do anything to defend the PM, but others feel the best thing is to distance themselves and hope for the best
‘Many new MPs see their only viable chance of re-election being with Boris Johnson as the leader.
Working for a Conservative MP, I hear a lot of talk about the party’s internal business. Sometimes it’s what people say directly to me, but more often than not they just have the conversations around me.
One question is, understandably, coming up a lot: will Boris Johnson be ousted, and if not, why not? The answer depends on who you’re talking about.
A very common view among more senior MPs and Tory staffers is that the recent intake of Conservative backbenchers, often those from the “red wall” seats, are often of low ability, even not hugely clever. Both 2017 and 2019 elections were sudden, and there just wasn’t enough time to vet candidates.
A lot of them don’t have especially good non-political careers to fall back on, so being an MP is all they have. These MPs are not especially good at holding the prime minister to account. In part, they sometimes just don’t understand very well how politics and parliament work. But also, all they want is to stay in parliament, and so are less willing to stand up to the government. For now, many see their only viable chance of re-election being with Johnson as the leader. Not least because the question asked by most Tory MPs is, who next? They don’t especially care if the party wins a majority at the next election, not least because there doesn’t seem to be any plan for government.
As long as there is no credible alternative, and they believe they can hold on to their seat with him at the helm, they will not push for him to go. The one thing that could persuade some to change their minds is if the Conservatives lose both byelections next month. But even winning one of the byelections could be enough to save Johnson. These new MPs have no other desire but to be re-elected so they can continue their fantasy of being important and influential. They have no qualms about supporting a man they know is not fit for office, and who is now even getting booed by a crowd of royalists………………….(continued)
The BBC are reporting that the weak cohort of Scottish Conservative MPs are now voting against Johnson. Followers not leaders. Chaff in the wind. Weak, insipid, spineless; what a Party, what a crew. They need THIS farce and booing at St.Paul’s to see what has been obvious and transparent to the world for months, even to the most supine of a treacherous crew. The Scottish Conservatives are part of the problem; idealogical invertebrates.
Ideological!
Well, well, well.
Now we know the result of the vote this evening, Johnson lives to fight another day.
However I doubt he will be there much beyond summer, after the Parliamentary Standards Committee reports, never mind two bye-election failures.
We really are in a mess and even worse is racing down the track toward us.
Agreed