This column by me was in The Sheffield Star yesterday:
There are some dates that go down in economic history. April 1 this year might be one of them. That is because this is the day when millions of families across the UK began to move into food and energy poverty as a consequence of the decisions made by the UK government.
I suspect that I do not need to explain that this was the day when fuel prices increased by about £700 for most households. It was also the day that National Insurance charges went up and the day when water charges rose. Food prices are already increasing. On top of that, interest rates are going up so that some people with mortgages will see that cost increase as well. If that is not enough, general inflation has now reached around 8% per annum, with the chance that it might go even higher later this year because it is thought that household energy costs might rise by up to another £1,000 a year in October when the next price review takes place.
I am old enough to remember the last cost of living crisis of this sort. It was in the 1970s, and I was a student at the time, but speaking purely professionally I can say with confidence that things were very different back then. Not only were the causes of the inflation different from those we are suffering now, but strong trade unions protected the wages of many whilst we had governments that were committed to tackling the problems that inflation caused. Now unions are rare outside the public sector and the government is creating much of the problem that we are facing.
I am aware that is a contentious claim, so let me justify it. First, some government policies have contributed to the crisis that we face. Like it or not, Brexit is one of those. It has made it harder for the UK to trade, as international statistics show, and that has a consequent cost which is reflected in UK inflation. That's not a political comment: it is a statement of fact.
Second, whilst overall the government did a reasonable job of managing the economic impact of COVID, they failed to anticipate the difficulties that reopening the economy would create which some (me included) wrote about endlessly before it happened. The warning that reopening the economy would be harder than closing it was ignored and no apparent attempt to manage the problems that have arisen, especially as a result of shortages of gas supply, was made. It is those shortages due to the end of Covid restrictions that have given rise to the current price rise, which have nothing to do with war in Ukraine.
The government's mismanagement of its relationships with Russia, which has been widely reported, did however mean that it failed to anticipate that crisis as well. It is shortages created by war that will give rise to the energy price increases in October.
On top of that, even when it knew that the current price increases were on the way it still planned the National Insurance increases and cut Universal Credit whilst encouraging the Bank of England to increase interest rates. It adopted all these measures because it claims that it is facing a debt crisis, with the national debt now needing to be repaid as a consequence of the costs of Covid.
These claims are entirely unjustified. The £400 billion cost of Covid was not paid for with either taxation or borrowing. Money was instead created for this purpose by the Bank of England through what is called the quantitative easing process, and there is absolutely no compulsion at all upon the government to repay this. That is because if this debt is due to anyone it is to the Bank of England, and that is owned by the government and so in turn by us, and I can hear no one clamouring to have that money paid back.
Despite that, for reasons best known to themselves the government has decided that it is more important to repay this debt than to worry about millions of people going into poverty in the UK. I think that decision is wrong. I actually think it is cruel.
What is more, the government's failure to do anything more to address this issue, from increasing the value of Universal Credit, to providing additional tax cuts, to reducing the Bank of England interest rate to reduce the cost of mortgages, to simply cutting the rate of VAT so that the cost of things that we buy is reduced, all of which would reduce inflation and so the pressure on household budgets, is also wrong in my opinion. Some or all of these were possible and affordable, and yet none was done.
In that case, as I suggested at the beginning, this is a cost-of-living crisis that will impose hunger, cold, misery, debt and the potential loss of people's homes on an untold number of people in Sheffield and beyond as a result of economic decision making that is wholly unjustifiable, and completely unnecessary.
Government does not come worse than this. Remember the date this began. Never forget it. And please don't forgive those doing this.
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The only rational explanation is that the Tories honestly believe in the false Government money/tax payers money narrative of Thatcherism and they honestly believe that they can do nothing but offer tax cuts for their own survival. So they will offer tax cuts when it suits them.
There is every indication that this is Thatcherite dogma at work in that the Tories since 2010 have argued that Thatcher did not go far enough and they came back to finish the job under the lie that the bank bail out by Labour left a huge debt on top of the ‘debts’ Labour had accrued by actually (in the end) spending a bit more on the public sector after initially keeping to Tory spending plans.
It has yet to be seen if the Tories can pull this off. The bail out of the banks in 2008/09 did not really change anything and the Tories increasingly fought dirty and outspent in the elections.
Labour is stymied in many ways and never defended the accusations of the debt creation and seem to believe in the closed system of tax expenditure to fund services and investment which should be a positive thing is just seen as debt.
Who knows how this will play out? The politics of hopelessness abound because the only idea is that nothing can be done. neo-liberalism seems to be winning.
All I know is that if you still vote intend to Tory in 2024, you want your head examined.
And they’ll be a long queue for examinations too I’m afraid.
And that’s the problem.
I remember the 70’s too – and inflation was sky high then – mortgage rates of 15% – but as you say the unions were stronger – indeed in the Civil Service we got a 19% pay rise – unheard of since then – but it was a Labour government
It’s simply the indifference of ignorance – that’s how I would term it.
It isn’t ignorance, PSR. It is malfeasance in office. Which in my view is worse.
I thought I had posted an ‘off-thread’ comment here, or a later thread yesterday about the issue of inflation-adjusted gilts and the problem of establishing interest or capital; but I can’t find it. Did it not arrive, or may I ask; was there a problem with it? I can certainly, and with ease botch something as simple as pressing the ‘send’ button, to start with the basics!
Sorry John – I had just not got around to reading it as yet – and working out what to do with it
I was wondering whether to add it to a blog, so give me some time!
Sorry Richard. I assumed either I had typically blundered the execution of a comment, or unconsciously committed some heinous editorial offence.
No! Not at all. You were simply too interesting on a weekend when I was fairly distracted by my family
I’m just a curious layman when it comes to this, but the way I see it, much of the current inflation has been caused by the QE money pumped into the economy during Covid. As you say, it’s not a debt that needs to be paid off, but surely it does need to be taken out of circulation to cool things down. It all ended up in the assets of the wealthy, and that’s where it should be taken back from. Not those who can least afford it.
Is the economy overheating, excepting house prices, which are nit in the inflation measure of concern?
In that case, what is the link?
I can’t find one?
And if there is why did it only happen when exploitation of shortages began post Covid reopenings?