Talking about what is unsaid is often considered dangerous in a time of war. It is also essential.

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Most of my mornings begin with a review of overnight news as I wonder what, if anything, I want to write about at the start of my day. Most often this results in me writing about something that is in the news that has been referred to in a report or opinion column, which I then use as the start point for what I have to say. Regular readers will be familiar with the formula.

On some days, this being one of them, whilst there is ample news there is nothing that immediately strikes me as a topic that I want to discuss, or where I can add value. Instead, what I have noted today is what is not being said. Looking for the gaps is always important. At this moment it might be particularly so.

In between all the bluster about what is happening, and supposed reaction to it, it strikes me that three things are not being talked about in the media at present.

The first of these is the fear that any rational person must feel at present. The entirely reasonable fear of Ukrainians is, of course, referred to, and appropriately so.

Some politicians also, almost unbelievably, have chosen this moment to talk about the fear that they want to generate that the UK might, to use their terminology, be ‘overrun by refugees'. I suspect that most can readily identify the callous opportunism in that.

What is not being talked about is a different, quite rational, fear that the government, in particular, would rather not be noticed at this moment. This is the fear that will be gripping many households that they will simply be unable to make ends meet as the cost of this war in terms of energy, food and other price increases stretches limited household budgets beyond any breaking point.

I am aware that the Labour Party is using its Opposition Day in parliament to raise one dimension of this issue this afternoon, and think it appropriate for them to do so. However, stopping a national insurance increase will, in the context of forecast energy price increases, be almost inconsequential in tackling the increase in poverty that many households will shortly be suffering.

What is generally the case is that the media is referring to price increases to come and government ministers who have control of this issue look to be simply shrugging their shoulders in response as if this is a matter entirely beyond their control. Whilst that is their reaction unspoken fear will continue in large parts of the UK population. It is as if we are walking into a poverty crisis and the government is clueless as to what to do about it. Of course there is fear as a result.

The second matter not referred to is that everything has changed. I am aware that I have said this before. I rather strongly suspect that I will need to do so again before this crisis is over.

There are a number of reasons for making this suggestion. As far as I see it, there is, for example, a simple denial going on that we are engaged in a war. It is true that we do not have troops on the ground in Ukraine. We can continue to hope that this war does not escalate geographically. We most certainly cannot be sure that it will not. What is certain, either way, is that we are nonetheless engaged in a conflict with Russia and to pretend otherwise is completely wrong. There does, however, appear to be a collective denial of this straightforward fact as if, somehow, this makes our situation better.

The reverse is true. We are worse off for this denial. Pretending that what is happening is an irritation in a far of place, as historically we have done so many times before, is the precondition to the failure to plan which is such a characteristic of modern Tory governments. The reality is that whatever happens in Ukraine, and we can only hope for the best, the knock-on effect of this war is going to be continuing for the UK. What is certain is that things will never go back to the way they were, which is the state in which many within the government and its ruling party will wish them to be.

The reality of the London laundromat has become clear now.

The impact of Russian money on UK politics, the rule of law, inequality, and the very status of the UK (as evidenced by the Russian funded campaign for Brexit) is now glaringly apparent to all but the willfully blind. It is hard to believe that this can continue to go unnoticed in the future.

That the UK must be willing to accept refugees is also very clear now, whatever the government might think.

And the reality that the scale of government involvement in the economy must change is also very obvious. Covid made this clear. War coming before the Covid crisis is over simply emphasises the point that the failed logic of neoliberalism has no answers to any problem that we now face. This is not, however, being said in the media as yet. That is the second great gap in discussion at present.

The third gap in discussion relates to the climate crisis. It is actually quite important to note that so far the war in Ukraine has had very little direct impact upon this. Oil and gas flows have continued almost uninterrupted to date. Consumption of carbon fuel is continuing as a result. All that is happening is that price speculation is massively increasing the cost of fuel at benefit to a few and at cost to billions.

However, in the UK and the EU, and most likely elsewhere, politicians are already pulling back from their green commitments. Boris Johnson is already saying that we must maximise oil and gas to be extracted from the North Sea, when we know that increasing carbon energy availability can only lead to a catastrophe on a scale that we can still hope war will not deliver. In the EU green energy substitution for carbon is being dropped, in part. We are going backwards, very fast.

What is not being said here are three things. The first is that as the cost increases make clear, markets are a very bad way of delivering energy security.

Second, as a consequence government involvement in energy supply has to increase.

Third, our dependence on oil and gas has to decrease, rather than be supplemented, which is how governments are reacting at present.

Only a limited number of politicians, like Caroline Lucas MP, are pointing out the obvious fact that finding alternative carbon energy supplies to those from Russia is an exceptionally expensive and time-consuming activity, which also imposes massive cost on the planet. There are, instead, better, cheaper and more reliable alternatives like wind, solar, tidal and hydro power, all of which could be delivered in short timescale and at lower cost than any carbon energy substitution. This, however, is not being said. It is the third greater omission from debate at present. It is as if politicians wanted a chance to escape their obligations on climate-related issues and have now found it.

There is a common theme to these gaps. It is that the truth is not being told. It is as if many of our politicians (and I am not saying all, because there are some notable exceptions) are in complete denial about what is currently happening in the world, and much of the media is playing to their tune.

This absence of truthful appraisal of the risks that we face, the tasks that we must address, and the actions that have to be taken, is the real crisis that I see developing as a consequence of this war at present. Unless and until we face the reality that we are at war, and that there will be a significant period of adjustment that will follow, even if that war ends soon, then we are in very deep trouble.

World War II created some exceptional thinking. Keynes and Beveridge were giants of their time. We should also note that the curse of Hayek's thinking was also a wartime construction.

War, deeply regrettable as it always is, is also a moment of change. We should not forget that. This is the moment when we have to make clear how a better world without conflict can be created. The task implicit in this must be the eradication of the causes of war, which lie deeply implicit within the logic of neoliberalism and its philosophy of accumulation of wealth for a few at cost to many.

Now is the time to talk about fear. It is the time to talk about how we address the necessary changes that are required in our economy so that all might live well. And it is the time to change our strategy on energy. These three great unspoken issues of this moment must be our focus of attention if we want to work on the assumption, as I do, that there will eventually be a beneficial resolution to the war in Ukraine.

Talking about what is unsaid is often considered dangerous in a time of war. It is also essential.


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