Most of my mornings begin with a review of overnight news as I wonder what, if anything, I want to write about at the start of my day. Most often this results in me writing about something that is in the news that has been referred to in a report or opinion column, which I then use as the start point for what I have to say. Regular readers will be familiar with the formula.
On some days, this being one of them, whilst there is ample news there is nothing that immediately strikes me as a topic that I want to discuss, or where I can add value. Instead, what I have noted today is what is not being said. Looking for the gaps is always important. At this moment it might be particularly so.
In between all the bluster about what is happening, and supposed reaction to it, it strikes me that three things are not being talked about in the media at present.
The first of these is the fear that any rational person must feel at present. The entirely reasonable fear of Ukrainians is, of course, referred to, and appropriately so.
Some politicians also, almost unbelievably, have chosen this moment to talk about the fear that they want to generate that the UK might, to use their terminology, be ‘overrun by refugees'. I suspect that most can readily identify the callous opportunism in that.
What is not being talked about is a different, quite rational, fear that the government, in particular, would rather not be noticed at this moment. This is the fear that will be gripping many households that they will simply be unable to make ends meet as the cost of this war in terms of energy, food and other price increases stretches limited household budgets beyond any breaking point.
I am aware that the Labour Party is using its Opposition Day in parliament to raise one dimension of this issue this afternoon, and think it appropriate for them to do so. However, stopping a national insurance increase will, in the context of forecast energy price increases, be almost inconsequential in tackling the increase in poverty that many households will shortly be suffering.
What is generally the case is that the media is referring to price increases to come and government ministers who have control of this issue look to be simply shrugging their shoulders in response as if this is a matter entirely beyond their control. Whilst that is their reaction unspoken fear will continue in large parts of the UK population. It is as if we are walking into a poverty crisis and the government is clueless as to what to do about it. Of course there is fear as a result.
The second matter not referred to is that everything has changed. I am aware that I have said this before. I rather strongly suspect that I will need to do so again before this crisis is over.
There are a number of reasons for making this suggestion. As far as I see it, there is, for example, a simple denial going on that we are engaged in a war. It is true that we do not have troops on the ground in Ukraine. We can continue to hope that this war does not escalate geographically. We most certainly cannot be sure that it will not. What is certain, either way, is that we are nonetheless engaged in a conflict with Russia and to pretend otherwise is completely wrong. There does, however, appear to be a collective denial of this straightforward fact as if, somehow, this makes our situation better.
The reverse is true. We are worse off for this denial. Pretending that what is happening is an irritation in a far of place, as historically we have done so many times before, is the precondition to the failure to plan which is such a characteristic of modern Tory governments. The reality is that whatever happens in Ukraine, and we can only hope for the best, the knock-on effect of this war is going to be continuing for the UK. What is certain is that things will never go back to the way they were, which is the state in which many within the government and its ruling party will wish them to be.
The reality of the London laundromat has become clear now.
The impact of Russian money on UK politics, the rule of law, inequality, and the very status of the UK (as evidenced by the Russian funded campaign for Brexit) is now glaringly apparent to all but the willfully blind. It is hard to believe that this can continue to go unnoticed in the future.
That the UK must be willing to accept refugees is also very clear now, whatever the government might think.
And the reality that the scale of government involvement in the economy must change is also very obvious. Covid made this clear. War coming before the Covid crisis is over simply emphasises the point that the failed logic of neoliberalism has no answers to any problem that we now face. This is not, however, being said in the media as yet. That is the second great gap in discussion at present.
The third gap in discussion relates to the climate crisis. It is actually quite important to note that so far the war in Ukraine has had very little direct impact upon this. Oil and gas flows have continued almost uninterrupted to date. Consumption of carbon fuel is continuing as a result. All that is happening is that price speculation is massively increasing the cost of fuel at benefit to a few and at cost to billions.
However, in the UK and the EU, and most likely elsewhere, politicians are already pulling back from their green commitments. Boris Johnson is already saying that we must maximise oil and gas to be extracted from the North Sea, when we know that increasing carbon energy availability can only lead to a catastrophe on a scale that we can still hope war will not deliver. In the EU green energy substitution for carbon is being dropped, in part. We are going backwards, very fast.
What is not being said here are three things. The first is that as the cost increases make clear, markets are a very bad way of delivering energy security.
Second, as a consequence government involvement in energy supply has to increase.
Third, our dependence on oil and gas has to decrease, rather than be supplemented, which is how governments are reacting at present.
Only a limited number of politicians, like Caroline Lucas MP, are pointing out the obvious fact that finding alternative carbon energy supplies to those from Russia is an exceptionally expensive and time-consuming activity, which also imposes massive cost on the planet. There are, instead, better, cheaper and more reliable alternatives like wind, solar, tidal and hydro power, all of which could be delivered in short timescale and at lower cost than any carbon energy substitution. This, however, is not being said. It is the third greater omission from debate at present. It is as if politicians wanted a chance to escape their obligations on climate-related issues and have now found it.
There is a common theme to these gaps. It is that the truth is not being told. It is as if many of our politicians (and I am not saying all, because there are some notable exceptions) are in complete denial about what is currently happening in the world, and much of the media is playing to their tune.
This absence of truthful appraisal of the risks that we face, the tasks that we must address, and the actions that have to be taken, is the real crisis that I see developing as a consequence of this war at present. Unless and until we face the reality that we are at war, and that there will be a significant period of adjustment that will follow, even if that war ends soon, then we are in very deep trouble.
World War II created some exceptional thinking. Keynes and Beveridge were giants of their time. We should also note that the curse of Hayek's thinking was also a wartime construction.
War, deeply regrettable as it always is, is also a moment of change. We should not forget that. This is the moment when we have to make clear how a better world without conflict can be created. The task implicit in this must be the eradication of the causes of war, which lie deeply implicit within the logic of neoliberalism and its philosophy of accumulation of wealth for a few at cost to many.
Now is the time to talk about fear. It is the time to talk about how we address the necessary changes that are required in our economy so that all might live well. And it is the time to change our strategy on energy. These three great unspoken issues of this moment must be our focus of attention if we want to work on the assumption, as I do, that there will eventually be a beneficial resolution to the war in Ukraine.
Talking about what is unsaid is often considered dangerous in a time of war. It is also essential.
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Excellent piece Richard. Re all unspokens an idea by former energy minister in Europe: government support in response to energy crisis should be more imaginative that provision of cash; it should be used to insulate homes of poorest so the benefit is long term. Hands up however anyone who believes Sunak possesses such imagination
An excellent article, it corresponds very well with the thoughts of Yuval Noah Harari. I’m sure that many of your readers will already have seen his Ted talk, if not it is well worth a look.
https://www.ted.com/talks/yuval_noah_harari_the_war_in_ukraine_could_change_everything
Thanks
The magnitude of the problems we face – the danger of war with Russia escalating to mutual nuclear exchange and subsequent planetary annihilation, massive price increases though recognised to some extent, don’t take account of the fact that millions are now facing poverty and will increase much further than acknowledged by the pundits. Also, you point out, the implicit racism in thinking that all Russians are evil when the truth is that millions oppose the Ukraine invasion and that Russian people are just ordinary people like us and not crazed monsters as the mass media is hinting at. The refusal to give full welcome to Ukrainian refugees is unforgivable.
You’re most important contribution yet
The ultimate Soviet scepticism is “we pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us”. The ultimate neoliberal Cynicism is “only a free market will keep us safe. A free market requires the rule of law. The only certain rule of law is within a nation state. A nation state requires a secure income. But we deceive ourselves or others that we can avoid paying tax. So we pretend to have a free market with the rule of law.” Which is where you came in, Richard.
I am deeply pessimistic. In a year’s time, almost the best we can hope for is no nuclear war. Ukraine will be a wasteland, Western Europe will simultaneously have to absorb 5 million plus refugees, and withstand unprecedented food and energy shortages. In the UK compassion fatigue will have set in. Ukranians will be unwelcome economic migrants and responsible for the shortages. Patel will be praised for trying to keep them out. The London Laundromat will be doing better business than ever, any anti-laundering legislation will be designed with well-concealed loopholes.
The next election will be run on the same successful alliance that delivered Brexit. Snowflakes like Richard, who advocate decency and compassion will be the subject of derision.
Something else not being said: we cannot keep Earth habitable and stop buying Russian fossil fuels without reducing demand for energy.
https://twitter.com/TTTMediaXR/status/1500976640368996355
Thank you for your rational assessment of the true situation the west is in, and a clear understanding of the choices that we need to make, Richard. For me, the key sentence in your post is: “As far as I see it, there is, for example, a simple denial going on that we are engaged in a war.”. It is vital that we wake up to this reality urgently, because failure to do so will inhibit the speed, scale and intensity of the response we need to make.
Putin has already made clear that he considers we have begun an economic war against him. He is also throwing out frantic threats of nuclear retaliation if the west dares to provide meaningful support to Ukraine, particularly in the form of additional weapons capability. What, exactly, would it take for him to consider that redline crossed? We have already provided lethal armaments to Ukraine; why should the gift of Polish fighter jets be necessary before Putin considers we have gone too far? As far as Putin is concerned, we have already given him any excuse he needs to escalate and retaliate.
Unless the west intends to compel Ukraine to surrender to his demands, it seems unlikely that he will achieve his aims any time soon. If we do not step up our interventions, the inevitable outcome will be that Ukraine will be reduced to rubble, with millions of casualties. It will be years before sanctions really bite, in which time, Putin will be assessing how much further he can test our resolution and tolerance for brutality. This suggests that our failure to swiftly provide the needed weaponry to Ukraine will only confirm to Putin that we are so scared of his nuclear arsenal (and we should be, no doubt) that we will never use ours, or even our conventional weaponry. So much for nuclear deterrence.
It’s worth reading this article by Fiona Hill, in Politico , for her assessment of how far Putin might go (https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340) and her conclusion that we are already in WW3 and that Putin would use nuclear arms.
Having seen the extent of the suffering that the west is prepared to watch unleashed on Ukraine, with only slow-acting sanctions as our response, how long do we think it will take the most exposed nations in Europe to begin to wonder if NATO would ever, actually, come to their defence if they were the next victim? Will the USA risk escalation of a conflict that had Moldova as the next target? Would we, here in the UK?
Without a much more robust response now, Putin will only be emboldened to repeat his atrocities in other states and we may not always have the excuse that “oh well, you should have joined NATO when you had the chance”, which appears to be the entire justification for not doing more to help Ukraine.
Nobody in their right mind wants to push us closer to a nuclear conflict and everything reasonable must be done to avoid one. But we may be only pushing it down the road if do not respond more robustly with our response now. Putin has clearly stated that he wants to re-establish the former USSR “sphere of influence”. At some point, whether it’s after he has rolled up Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, or when he’s contemplating Hungary, Slovakia and Poland as the next targets, NATO will be pushed too far. Unless the governments of the world are absolutely convinced that, unlike his Nazi predecessors in Czechoslovakia, Putin will be satisfied with only swallowing Ukraine, then they need to rapidly raise the west’s response to a level and nature that will make him back down now – or engineer a palace coup.
If the west truly manages to rapidly impose sanctions that will cripple Russia, then we have to accept that the reciprocal impact on us will be quite devastating – particularly on the poorest in our societies. That will require Government intervention to ensure there is not an intensification of the hardships that too many people already endure. (Of course, it would be nice if something was to be done about the inadequacies of our existing social support systems at the same time.) We are already at war and we need to mobilise appropriately, even if that mobilisation is purely economic at this time. As someone convinced of the strength of your arguments about money, I firmly believe that “if we can do it, we can afford it”.
Thanks