What became very clear yesterday was that our Cabinet does not understand exponential growth.
As I noted on Sunday, the SAGE report that was published on Saturday, but which was supplied to the government on 15 December, made three things clear.
The first was that Omicron was growing exponentially, with a doubling of cases every two days.
Second, it made clear vaccine boosting could not contain this by itself.
Third, it suggested urgent measures were needed before Christmas if preventable deaths were to be avoided.
It is now apparent that the Cabinet wants more data before deciding what to do about omicron. They might then consider measures on the Tuesday after Christmas - the 28th December. There may have been six or more doublings of cases by then.
This tweet by Jens von Bergmann seems appropriate to note:
Every time a new variant with a selective advantage is making the rounds, but especially this time. pic.twitter.com/fDEq54nHCl
— Jens von Bergmann (@vb_jens) December 14, 2021
For public health read ‘politicians'. The reality of omicron is known and has been now since only a few days after it was first identified. Even the debate about milder, or not, was an irrelevance and as SAGE has said, there is no evidence it is true anyway. That is because a version 50% milder but with a doubling rate twice as strong has an advantage of just two days in case loads.
What we now know is that politicians are gambling on scientists being wrong. But there is no gamble to be had. Exponential doubling every two days, which is indisputably happening, inevitably leads to an overwhelming caseload unless action is taken to stop it doing so. This is an indisputable fact. Pretending otherwise is not a gamble. It is stupidity. That is what the Cabinet is doing.
And a great many preventable deaths will happen as a result.
This is not the time for stupid people to be running the government. But they are. We will pay very heavily for that.
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I suspect it’s the gangsters, not stupid people, running the government
Innumerate politicians have been the rule for as long as I can remember… but it is different this time.
In the past, those who did not understand numbers deferred to their advisors that did. Today they defer to their political strategists as to what will look good in the papers tomorrow or enhance their leadership prospects with an increasingly weird selectorate (for Johnson it’s CRG MPs; for the others you can add in Tory party members).
If it were not a life and death issue I would love to sit back and enjoy the entertainment.
Let’s be clear here, this variant exploded in South Africa in early November; we have had more than a month where the current situation was foretold and our government sat on its hands because it was worried that it might upset a few nutters in the CRG. Criminal.
The last is the right word
@Clive Parry “Let’s be clear here, this variant exploded in South Africa in early November; we have had more than a month where the current situation was foretold…” Absolutely true, but we can be more specific than that – we knew that this variant exploded in Gauteng providnce in South Africa – where the exponential case
rates have now peaked, hospitalisations are stable at rates much lower than delta and hospital stays are of much shorter duration too.
Governments trusting their citizens to take responsible steps to protect themselves and thier families whilst giving them every opportunity to injecf themselves with something they’ve been told will help is not ‘sitting on their hands’.
Claims such as these are so misleading
Hospitalisations are not stable but there have been massively higher rates of death in earlier waves than we have had, which of course impacts rates this time
South Africa is in a different season to us
It had beta and not delta and so there is no comparison to be made on that issue
And there are also questions on a great many other issues
As SAGE says, there is no evidence to suggest that any of your claims are right
For promoting falsehoods on here with a clear neoliberal overtone to the comments made you have been banned
See https://twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1473008745378635781?t=38ZMzGsiE-Aa9nqRuB2fKw&s=03
It is not true that things are getting better in SA
It may be true that the peak has arrived, but not that the crisis is over
New cases rates in may Gauteng have peaked. With a doubling rate of just 2 or 3 days this inevitable as the pool of uninfected people shrinks. But just because fewer people catch it today than yesterday is no solace to those that catch it today and get very sick. Things are still bad there.
Data on hospitalization rates is difficult to interpret. Once all hospitals are full no more admissions are possible. That means hospitalization rates will fall as case numbers rise – it’s a mathematical certainty. How many people are needing hospital treatment who can’t get it? SAGE have looked at the data more carefully (than you or me) and, given the uncertainties involved, concluded that we don’t know. They suspect that if it is milder it is not milder by an order of magnitude… in which case the increased transmissability will (without action) overwhelm the NHS
You are right that individual responsibility is important. I have the luxury (because I am retired and wealthy) of choosing what risks I wish to take. Most working people do not have that luxury and are relying on government to reduce the risks on their behalf – it is what collective action is all about.
Booster vaccines are helping but let’s be frank – the jab rate they are looking for is an aspiration. We need to buy time.
Thanks
I have some sympathy for people who don’t understand “party” having a bit of trouble with “exponential “.
🙂
Richard,
I can remember thinking at the start of the pandemic that it must be possible to design a “Sleeping Beauty” / suspended animation approach to the economy, which put people first, though my 70 year old, Parkinson’s depleted brain couldn’t think it through. I was interested, therefore, only yesterday to come across this proposal from back in March 2020 from the House Democrats which fleshed out a plan which seems to me to start with concern for people rather than “the Economy”. If only . . .
https://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/fsc_covid-19_legislative_package_-_03.18.20.pdf
Or are they all just fixated on one question?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FG_0HFyWUBAIb_L?format=jpg&name=large
All I’d add is that it does not help that a certain amount of the public are also stupid in not getting vaccinated. If accounts are true, too many of these people are the ones in hospital. Apparently the estimate of a third of those living in London are not vaccinated is incredible.
I cannot believe however that as late as October I was hearing that Covid was old hat, yesterday’s excuse for not getting anything done. I just used to shake my head in disbelief when I heard that because that WAS stupid group think.
The Tories are right in that we’ve got to get used to living with Covid. Where they are manifestly wrong though is that it is about living with it CAREFULLY.
As I’ve said before, ruling for modern Tories is about destroying the State – the total antithesis of what we really need – people who want to govern and make a positive difference to society broadly and welcome those challenges. There is so little redundancy in service delivery these days because of austerity that when Covid hits the workforce, things actually stop or slow down.
We must hammer home that the Tories have taken immense risks with austerity and BREXIT and have been caught out because it invites the opportunity for MMT and REAL social democracy to be introduced.
And this inability to cope will also be reified increasingly by global warming driven climate change – Covid is just the start of many Thatcherite chickens coming home to roost (the other one being energy production and pricing).
Richard, I agree with you completely, though it is hard to tell where stupidity stops and democide begins. Howver, can I add one note of caution.
A question I have been pondering for some time.
We know that R represents a range from a small number of supersreaders to most cases who infect nobody else.
But do superspreaders infect the population at random, or are they more likely to infect other superspreaders?
If it is the latter, I think you can make two predictions.
First,with a new variant the initial rate of increase from superspreader to superspreader transfer will be very rapid.
Second, a plateau will arrive sooner than expected, because there will be the equivalent of herd immunity among superspreaders.
I think earlier spikes may be consistent with this suggestion.
A worry is that modellers may be “discredited” because the initial rate of increase gives an overestimate of the final adverse outcome.
However, it also strengthens the case that decisive early action will always provide the greatest benefit
No one doubts there will be a plateau – of course there is
But the question is how many people die if that plateau is reached early and is very high
What happened to ‘following the science’.
Remember that one?