I doubt it is necessary for me to go through the statistics on the North Shropshire by-election result. Suffice to say that the Liberal Democrats came from third with 10% of the vote to come first with 47% whilst the Tories lost half their vote to register just 31% support.
This is a massive swing by any standard. It is worth noting some of the oddities of this.
This was a leave seat. That is quite unlike Chesham.
For a by-election the turnout was high, and much higher than the recent Bexley by-election.
The Labour vote collapsed. It is very apparent that the Tories did not just lose votes, but that Labour voters were willing to vote tactically.
ABC - Anything But Conservative - worked here.
This by-election was unnecessary. It was the result of Tory errors in parliament.m
It is 200 years since this seat returned anyone got a Tory.
This result will have hordes of Tory MPs looking very nervously at their chances of electoral survival.
But, apart from the newsworthiness of this, what does it mean?
First, and most worryingly, it means that it will be much harder for Johnson to impose Covid restrictions when they are desperately needed. The far-right group in parliament probably gain short term advantage from this because he knows that they could now trigger a leadership election whenever they like.
Second, what that probably means is that they will not trigger that election, as yet. It suits them to have a PM they can manipulate in office rather than one enjoying honeymoon popularity who might be able to ignore them.
Third, this uneasy truce might persist for a while. However, I suspect that there was something more to this voter rebellion than a reaction to Johnson's indifference to parties being held in No. 10. Decent people were not just offended by that behaviour. They were also profoundly disturbed by the thinking implicit in that tolerance. They reject both the lunacy of the right and the callous indifference to others that it represents. I think both the size of the vote and the scale of the swing suggest that.
Fourth, the Tory hard core is 31%. Staggeringly, people still voted for them despite the fact that the Tories have killed tens of thousands of people as a result of their ineptitude. It is hard to see what might change the views of those who still think this acceptable.
Fifth, there are many fewer votes on which Labour or any other party apart from the Tories might rely. Winning requires active cooperation in that case.
Sixth, I believe that winning a general election in the sense of getting rid of the Tories is possible in the light of this, but only with at least tacit cooperation taking place. In other words, the willingness to not campaign seen of late has to be not just tolerated but positively encouraged.
Seventh, the reason for this has to be made explicit by all opposition parties. The fight from now until the next election has to be about the fundamental issue of beating fascism. The Tories want to create an extreme, authoritarian state that oppresses those who live within it. That oppression is social, political and economic. It is all designed to further the interests of a few. A tacitly cooperative opposition has to work together to prevent that happening. That is now the primary job of all political parties in England and Wales. In Scotland the threat is already largely contained.
Eighth, this logic has not just got to underpin one election, but has to change the electoral system and even the nature of the country itself to ensure that the fascists cannot capture it in the way that the Tories have to date. That requires Labour to change its mind on PR, party funding and much more, but the actions of Unite in threatening to withdraw funding from it curiously makes that easier to imagine happening.
Ninth, this is the time for radical thinking across party boundaries. WW2 delivered Beveridge. The fight against Covid and to then transition the economy to sustainability demands the same new thinking.
Tenth, the time for materialist thinking that has dominated the left / right divide is over. The simple fact is that the divide in question was based on a fight to control the means of production that we now know must be held in trust by us for generations to come. That is where the debate that beats fascism has to be headed. Old thinking has to be consigned to history, where it belongs.
I am hopeful this morning. But there is a great deal to do to cement this win and stop fascism in this country. I have to believe that is possible. This morning I do.
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The Tories are a fascist party.
Not Capitalism. Not Free markets. Not pro business.
Fascist.
This needs to be connected with them in the public mindset, in the same way Marxism is associated with Labour, to its discredit.
We need a new party to vote for.
Well, that’s all good Guardian reading, Radio 4 listening stuff Richard but I don’t think banging on about fascism is going to register with most voters. Seeing as the best possible outcome at the next election would be a hung parliament it may be better for the opposition parties to play to their particular strengths. The Lib Dems need to put their interest in electoral reform front and centre alongside civil liberties and some nod towards better run and funded public services. The Green’s focus is pretty obvious and should be bolstered by a commitment to repealing the illiberal legislation authored by Pritti Patel as many will be unconvinced by any inclination from Starmer towards this.
Whilst Labour’s focus may not be materialist it should be concerned with the material. Most people’s material circumstances have deteriorated substantially since the Conservatives took power in 2010. The question should be what have the Conservatives done for you over the last thirteen to fourteen years? Alongside this they should be giving some clear indication of how they intend to improve on this. It would help if they were led by someone who looked and sounded more like Angela Rayner or Andy Burnham but that is a secondary issue. I won’t be holding my breath.
The reality is that this is a directionless government who haven’t even managed to deliver on their core commitment to ‘get Brexit done’. It seems likely that they will replace Johnson and it will be difficult for his successor to whip up the same populist support. They will be reluctant to go to the country and are incapable of coming up with popular spending measures due to the swivel eyed nature of the parliamentary party. The focus should be on picking apart their record and their credibility as the ‘natural party of government’.
Should we get to a hung parliament one can only hope the Lib Dems don’t sell themselves as cheaply as they did in 2010.
Enemies have to be named
But of course I am not suggesting name-calling is the basis for a win
I am always solution focussed
This is a policy blog
I think opposition parties and the Labour party, in particular, would do well to listen to the sort of policy you propose.
Thanks
Be careful what you wish for, This result plays into the hands of the Tory right not the other way round. As for tactical voting, this was the view from the NEC this week:
“Our job is to maximise Labour’s vote, because a high Labour vote, not an easy-to-dismiss Lib Dem by-election flash-in-the-pan, is what will really put Boris and the Tories on notice to quit.”
The real message from the result is probably the mirror image of what will be reported today…
The voters will not tolerate that
It is time Labour and the Tories heard that
Bojo does not sit on the right wing of the Tories (despite the hyperbolic headlines) far from it.
If they oust him, they will shift further to the right not the centre (note the main opposition to him is coming from the libertarians who despise any restrictions)And Labour’s only chance of power is, as we have seen clearly, to be positioned in the centre (even slightly right of centre). So this results is unlikely to lead in any way to a shift to the left in UK politics since after all, voters have shown that they do not tolerate that.
Hence Starmer’s more subtle re-positioning of Labour.
I think we disagree on where Johnson sits
This is the man who expelled the moderate Tory Party remember
I’m afraid I have to agree agree with Alice. The Lord Frost resignation is a signal that forces, even further to the right, are manoeuvring to take over from BJ.
I’m not sure why he feels that Covid and economic policy is a resigning issue for him. That’s neither his remit nor his area of expertise. His job was to sort out issues with the NI protocol. The words “good riddance” comes to mind!
At the last local elections I took a look at the results in rural areas (there was a nice web site that allowed you to cruise over a map of the UK and click on a given area to see the result). In rural areas, the tory vote had collapsed. Of course the councillors still got in in some areas, but what were once safe seats have become highly marginal. I attribute this to the on-going disaster in farming. & I’d hazard a guess that this has played a role in this by-election.
The e-mail below is what I circulated to comrades in May:
Chipping Norton Labour gain from troies on a 8% swing. In the farming areas the tories have had a massive kicking – anything in the range 10 through to 31% fall in support. (Much Wenlock – 40% fall). Hampshire – get away from the coast – big loss of support. Shropshire – huge loss of support.
If Covid policy is to be used as a yardstick, the ” far-right group in parliament” now includes the Lib Dems. Despite some of them calling for Plan B plus they actually voted for Plan B double minus. That is plan B but with no Covid passports and no mandatory vaccines for NHS workers. They somehow managed to convince themselves that mask wearing wasn’t the imposition of totalitarian rule by an authoritarian state.
This was highly irresponsible. The wearing of masks is of course essential but it won’t be anywhere near enough to control the spread of the Omicron variant in the coming weeks.
It is good that Johnson has a setback and his electoral invincibility has been broken. However, whilst we may celebrate today we must not forget that an extreme right-wing party verging on fascism has been replaced in one seat by a watered-down Conservative of the Orange Book Liberals who are fierce defenders of unrestrained free-market capitalism who supported Cameron and Osborne’s austerity cuts and broke their written pledges to rid us of tuition fees, whose only saving grace is one of supporting civil liberties (we hope) and proportional representation. The Greens did well in almost saving their deposit (4.57%) coming in at 4th place beating Reform who supposedly “threw everything” at this election thus depriving the extreme right of any encouragement. It will be interesting to see if Labour did well in the Oswestry wards if such a vote breakdown is publicly available.
“I am hopeful this morning.”
I’d be feeling more hopeful if Labour had declined to stand a candidate in this by-election. They didn’t come third they were an ‘also ran’ and knew that would be the case. If Labour remains committed to FPTP they should at least accept the realities of the system and play the game to best advantage.
Any reduction on this government’s undeserved majority is good, and anything that hastens Johnson not being PM is also good. So, something, amidst all the gloom, to feel cheerful about.
As to the points you make Richard about ABC and the need for coooperation by progressives, I completely agree. It is appalling that 31% of the turnout still voted for a governmemnt moving towards fascism, and to beat that cooperation, not tribalism is needed. ‘Get them out’, ABC, or some such slogan has to be watchword here.
Even if the NEC can’t see that, a lot of voters can.
Agreed re the last
Congratulations to the Lib Dems for winning in North Shropshire. They do seem to have discovered a winning by-election formula in some Tory seats. This involves being ultra local in their sales pitch. Helen Morgan was, for example, heavily promoted as the ‘local’ candidate. She said in her acceptance speech:
“My priorities are your priorities: Improving our local ambulance service, GPs and hospitals………..As your MP, I promise I will work for you and only you. I will always put local people and our communities first. ”
In other words telling the voters what they want to hear but with little or no mention of important national issues. No mention of Brexit or the EU for starters!
This won’t work in the next general election. 55% of the electorate did not vote at all yesterday. This was despite the Lib Dems flooding the constituency with volunteers. Even the most apolitical would have been aware that something was going on. More Tory supporters registered their displeasure by abstaining rather than switching to the Lib Dems. They will be back in two or three years time. We might see the back of Boris Johnson sooner than that but not the Tory government.
With regard to Labour, it’s interesting to look back over the last few elections in North Shropshire….
In 2010 Lab finished 3rd, behind Lib Dems, 18.1% of the vote.
2015 – second, 19.9%
2017 – second, 31.1% of the vote, under the “unelectable” Corbyn.
2019 – second, 22.1% – despite the unprecedented anti-Corbyn campaign by the Esthablishment, still a better result than in 2010 and 2015.
2021 – third, 9.7%. Obviously Starmer’s decision to get rid of all those lefties and give the electorate an alternative Tory party to vote for is paying off.
You may try to rationalise it as tactical voting, and no doubt there was some of that.
But we need to consider whether policies and mismanagement which have resulted in Labour losing 200,000 members, and getting 8000 fewer votes in North Shropshire than “unelectable Corbyn” in 2019 are connected.
Bottom line : if someone is going to vote for Tory policies, they already have a real Tory party to vote for. And Tory voters with qualms can and probably do vote Lib Dem.
Starmer’s attempt to reposition Labour in an attempt grab some of that vote share appears to have backfired somewhat : the part of the electorate he’s been sucking up to dont want him, and he’s also alienated a large section of former Labour supporters.
I understand Labour were finding it very difficult to get anyone to canvass for their candidate in North Shropshire – several ex-members outside of the constituency have reported getting emails from Labour HQ begging them to go and help out.
But that’s what happens when you discard the very people who were formerly committed to doing the legwork.
I am sorry but you are wasting your time telling me all this
I have no great love of current Tory policy
But I want rid of them and you clearly would rather squabble
Get real
@ Richard,
Actually we don’t want to squabble. Red Star can correct me if I am wrong but we want a united Labour Party to defeat the Tories at the next election every bit as much as you do. The Lib Dems might pull off some spectacular by-election results but they’ll not be able to repeat enough of them in a general election. However, we aren’t going to get unity if Starmer doesn’t make at least some effect to be more conciliatory towards the left.
As RedStar says you can’t discard the very people who are most prepared to do the legwork and still expect to win.
As Harold Wilson used to say, if you can’t ride two horses at the same time you need to get out of the circus!
I strongly suspect the LDs will have many more seats again
But I agree, Labour has to win too
@Richard Murphy : “But I want rid of them and you clearly would rather squabble ”
So which is your prefered choice – the Tory 2nd or 3rd team – because that’s basically the “choice” we now have.
Anyone wanting real change is pretty much disenfranchised now. As I’ve said before, I seem to have spent half my life voting for the least worst option and really I’m sick of it.
Voting Lab or Lib Dem because they’re not the Tories doesn’t seem much of a deal when we all know that, given power, there’d be very little actual change in policy.
Corbyn failed
I might argue that was because John McDonnell dragged him to the right
But like it or not, he did
Now, how are you going to overcome that when it seems like that is not electorally plausible?
So ask why Starmer did not stand aside when any sensible opposition politician would have done so to help ensure a blow against the government. Of course, Starmer SOUGHT to split the anti Tory vote in the hope of saving Johnson’s ***. That is what an MI5 approved Leader of HM Opposition would be expected to do. Did Starmer realise that? Do bears poo in the woods!
Sorry – but I think this is really rather silly, to be polite
@ Paul Henry,
I agree with Richard. Forget the silly conspiracy theories.
If anyone should have stood aside in North Shropshire it should have been the party finishing third in previous election. The problem is that Lib Dem voters won’t tactically switch to Labour in the same way as Labour voters will tactically switch to the Libs. So any such arrangement would be highly unbalanced from Labour’s POV.
Furthermore if the Libs are seen to be in a pact with Labour that will lay them open to the accusation that a vote for them is a vote for Labour. This will weaken their ability to attract disgruntled Tory voters.
So I would say that we are stuck with things being as they are for the foreseeable future.
Look at the data
There are seats where Labour can win and others where LDs can
The latter are smaller in number
But let’s just accept this
It’s about respecting people. Why is that so hard?
These deals are always harder than many might think.
But besides those difficulties, if we are to truly respect voters we need to look at their second preferences: a) Labour voters will nearly always favour the Lib Dems. b) Lib Dems will split roughly equally between Labour and Tory. c) Tories will probably favour the Lib Dems providing they aren’t too radical and aren’t seen to be in bed with Labour.
b) means that Lib Dems standing down for Labour doesn’t achieve anything. c) means that its actually counterproductive for the seats where Labour does stand down.
Listening to the Lib-Dem leader this morning on R4 (they are so dead to me as a party I can’t even be bothered to remember his name) he spoke of people being really angry about the state of the ambulance services and Social care coming up time and time again on the doorstep.
‘Good’ I say.
But if the majority the Tories usually enjoy is 20,000, what did the other 14,000 do in this case? And why?
To me this result means nothing at all at the moment. There’s nothing to see here – move on I say.
For once I have to disagree, considerably
Reading the tea leaves of a by-election is great fun, but ultimately no more than that.
The questions remain… and are not easily answered by looking at the votes of the good folk of North Shropshire.
Two things it does tell us (a) Johnson is despised (b) Brexit is not the all consuming issue is was in 2019. – but not a lot more.
I want to know…
(1) how does the ABC (anybody but CORBYN) vote feel about a Starmer led Government?
(2) to what extent can Brexit still rally “core” Tory support?
(3) how will tactical voting work in a GE without a formal pact (that seems unlikely at present).
(4) If Johnson is ditched will his replacement be electable? Truss and Sunak seem to me to be “continuity Boris” in policy terms without any of the charisma.
If I were a betting man, Boris will not lead into the next election, his replacement will be unelectable (there are still Boris fans – but no Truss/Sunak fans), Starmer will form the next government possibly in coalition with the SNP. Lib Dems will have a role to play in stealing the Tory vote at a constituency level but the mathematics suggest that this help deliver Labour/SNP to power rather than a coalition that involves them.
Oh, and it does rather seem I am guilty or tea leaf reading!! Can’t help it, sorry.
As far as the BBC is concerned – it seems we are already a one party state – if you measure it by Tory time on the radio4 PM programme and on all the news current affairs progs for months . The Conservatives provide their own opposition – the subliminal message being – all the signifianct stuff is within the Conservative party,
Sorry – but that is nonsense
Do you actually watch people like Ros Atkins and Lewis Goodall?
Maybe nonsense, – only going by radio 4. Its a very strong impression from there – not meant as definitve re other channels , but would be an interesting metric – time spent discussing or interviewing Conservatives vs other parties.
Yes, it is an R4 issue
But they do talk to the government more
It is because they are the government
They tend to set the agenda…..
But it’s also a ridiculously narrow sample
I am get why people are annoyed with Labour, but I suggest some respect for democracy is wise
And to be blunt, for all its faults the BBC is a lot better than any other option