The UK's chief medical officers increased their assessment of the threat from Covid to level five yesterday. What that means is that they think that there is a risk of the NHS being overwhelmed by the number of new Covid cases.
Also yesterday, the Health Secretary warned that there may already be 200,000 new Covid cases a day in the UK, which was a figure that took even scientists by surprise.
However, as Covid statistical expert Duncan Robinson noted on Twitter the maths of the model was simple to work out, whilst defending that use of a simple model at the time that we do not have absolute certainty as to the way in which this pandemic is growing. His version of the calculation looks like this:
It's very difficult to fathom exponential growth. It really is. But if you use *a very simple forumla* then you can see that things get out of control *VERY QUICKLY*
You can also see how today's 200,000-ish figure could be obtained. pic.twitter.com/wsnKaWinH1
— Dr Duncan Robertson (@Dr_D_Robertson) December 13, 2021
Note that this model suggests Covid being utterly out of control by Christmas.
I note too his forecasts for case numbers and admissions, with varying scenarios modelled:
Hospital admissions at most of the rates forecast are more than enough to completely crash the NHS. They simply could not be managed.
Of course, these are forecasts. I entirely accept that. I also hear all the claims that Omicron might be milder than previous variants, but see no reason to assume that is the case when there is no persuasive evidence as yet.
In that case there is no reason to assume that we are heading for anything but the most unprecedented crisis.
There are, of course, those who do not believe this. I will address that issue in another post. This post has one simple objective. It is to explain that quite reasonable people, using entirely reasonable assumptions based upon the observations of what is happening can project a health crisis of a scale none of us has previously experienced.
I stress, again, the things will not turn out as this modelling suggests. There are always other factors to take into account, including the possibility that the government might just act appropriately in the face of this crisis, which could dramatically reduce the number of cases, albeit without entirely eliminating the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed now because any action now may be too late to prevent that.
But without action, which has to include immediate lockdowns, we are facing a wholly unknown situation that many might not survive.
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I’m picking up that the info on Omicron being more mild might be making people drop their guard.
All I would say is ‘don’t’.
It only needs another mutation that is possibly worse and there you go. What seems to be happening is that Covid now seems to be picking off those who are not vaccinated at all.
Welllllllllllllll… that’s not impossible, but it rather runs against how mutations tend to work.
A mutation usually only takes hold if it’s beneficial to the survival chances of the specimen. A version that is more lethal may be LESS likely to survive as, by definition, it kills its ‘food,’ and so can’t keep feeding off the same victim. Whereas a milder form is less likely to kill its carrier, and therefore is likelier to survive longer, as it can re-infect the same victims over and over.
Your version is disputed – there is no reason why viruses become weaker – but it is true that they do not wish to kill all hosts
One tricky, yet in a way banal, part of it is the Tory party infighting.
The succession of damaging leaks about last year’s Christmas parties at Number Ten seem to be aimed at removing PM Johnson from office and are likely orchestrated by an alternative Tory faction. The appearance of Dominic Cummings to pour fuel on the fire is noteworthy.
It has the effect though that if Johnson wants to ride it out he can’t really cancel everyone else’s parties. It brings his own hypocrisy and the reckless endangerment that his bubble behaves with to the forefront again.
Johnson clearly is a narcissist fully capable of letting thousands die so he can carry on being the Big Man for a little longer so he won’t jeopardise his thin hold on the job.
Many people voted for Johnson because “he’s a bit of a laugh”. Someone you’d enjoy going to the pub with.
I fear his legacy will end up deeply grim.
Not least because of their decision to protect Big Pharma’s profits over solving this virus. As of 11th December less than 400m people have had their 2 shots and booster. So less than 400m people are fully vaccinated in a world population of almost 8 billion people. That’s a lot of hosts for the virus to play around in and develop new variants.
So not only are we spectacularly failing as a country with our resources, our expertise and our remarkable scientific achievements but we face a future of more of failure, more tragedy.
Do take care Richard. Remember we can choose to be more cautious than the government outlines. I’m certainly looking at a rather solitary Christmas.
I will be very largely isolating over Christmas
The one small family gathering we hoped for looks like ti will go now
[…] have already noted this morning that exceptionally serious scientists and the UK's chief medical officers all agree that we face […]
Level 5?! Level 4 was announced on 12 December. has it escalated again in the space of a day?
Yes
Whilst reluctant to extrapolate from anecdote, it can be instructive.
My two children and a nephew in London all (separately) caught Covid between 5 and 10 days ago and are isolating. They tell me that they are not unusual and that this is “second time around” for 1 of the three and many of their friends. The data lag reality – I think the 200,000 cases a day (4 x the “official” number) sounds more reasonable.
I am already in effective isolation. Responsibilities to vulnerable people require it. Many of my friends (ie. a generation older than my 25 year old kids) are behaving similarly. It is now standard to do a lateral Flow Test before meeting anyone else. These (mostly) naturally conservative, Conservatives are way ahead of the government and now squirm when I mock the 80 rebels for their heartless stupidity. The CRG’s “principled stand” makes them a laughing stock.
If we had a by-election in our constituency today a large Tory majority would disappear and we would get a Lib Dem.
My elder son has had alpha and delta and now presumes he will get omicron
I think my sons are the only people I will risk seeing for Christmas
Thankfully there are no elderly relatives left to care for now, which is a measure of aging
Thanks for once again telling it like it is. I value the way you don’t mince your words. However, are you correct in saying the alert level has been raised to 5? I can’t find any reports of that; only of it being raised to 4 on Sunday. What was your source, Richard? (I don’t think it seriously undermines the thrust of your argument, which is largely based on the (uncontested) modelling.)
I heard 5 last night
Did I hear wrong?
If I did I apologise…
If ever there was a time to apply the precautionary principle, this has to be one and the government has failed every single time with disastrous consequences. It seems to be a combination of callous indifference to the consequences, obsession with utterly wrong economics, wilful ignorance and last but not least sheer incompetence. The latest declaration that everyone who wants can be vaccinated ASAP without any consideration of how that might be achieved and the wider impacts on health is yet another example.
Given how things are going I can envisage either a descent into ever more authoritarian populism as the Tories cling to power, or collapse and some form of government of national unity. Either will be involve yet more to the health of the country – physical, mental, social and economic.
Agreed