As Larry Elliot notes in the Guardian this morning:
A triple crunch now looms: an economic crunch as the post-lockdown bounce in activity falters; an energy crunch that will make it even harder for those on low incomes to make ends meet; and a climate crunch as the government struggles to turn its fine words about a net-zero transition into action.
I agree, but I think Larry understates the scale of the problem. There is also Covid still to consider. As the FT noted yesterday:
Covid-19 cases among schoolchildren in England have surged to a record high, raising the spectre of further educational disruption and a fresh wave of infections in older groups.
Wait until those permeate up through a still chronically under-vaccinated population and there is a lot of Coviid grief (literally) to come.
Despite that Robert Shrimley in the FT might be right in saying:
With a cabinet reshuffle that made few concessions to rivals or party factions and the swatting of two potential rebellions, Boris Johnson's command of his party is clear. Fortunes fluctuate with events but the prime minister heads into the autumn the dominant force in British politics.
Despite making a crass speech at the UN, in which he urged other countries to follow the science on climate change that he has so obviously ignored in the past and still does on Covid Johnson does appear in a strong position, for now.
And what if there is a quadruple crunch, when Covid is added in? My horrible suspicion is that unless Keir Starmer really does discover a purpose (and I am not familiar with the contents of his 'essay' as yet) and Labour gets over the fiscal paranoia that I am told still grips the shadow Treasury team, then he might just survive it because there is no one challenging him from the left, which is why he has felt free to ignore the market enthusiasts in his own party, from his Chancellor onwards, and take action that would have the Daily Mail screaming in outrage if it came from a Labour government.
So add in a fifth crunch, which is that the Tories might survive this still. Then we are in trouble.
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If things don’t get too bad, Mendacious Fat/Toryscum will muddle through.
However, there could be some trigger events: cold winter (rocketing energy bills), growth of empty shelves (food) with Covid as the “cherry on top” – some combination could be enough to trigger “social unrest” – what form that takes will be difficult to say but it is clear that the (dis)United Serfdom is in terminal decline
One can add to that the slow morphing of Lie-bore into Toryscum-lite (& thus we are back to the 1990s). Ken Loach’s video on Pateron sums it all up quite well.
I watched Loach’s video on Patreon this morning. He was extremely critical of Starmer. IIRC, he contended Starmer was a Stalinist. My own criticisms of Corbyn were that he was a man with great ideas but a poor judge of character, especially in the aides he selected.
My view is that it is not just the poor who will be hit by energy FAILURE (when you use the word ‘crises’ it makes it more harder to pin the cause or those who promote the cause – ‘crises’ suggests it’s someone or something else’s fault that is beyond the power of anyone to stop it).
The Tories have been in power since 2010. Yes people are poor – working and other wise – but others like myself continue to get poorer are on the way to being poor. That is the telemetry of our society under the Tories.
Added to drops in incomes, we are now also being exposed to the full force of modern markets which are just mechanisms for wealth extraction by the rich and the pension funds – a situation with a very North American tinge to it.
It’s amazes me even now that Labour do not seem to acknowledge that everything they and the Liberals built in the post war period is now being deliberately broken on purpose by Boris and his Government who are really no better than Cameron and Osbourne and even worse because they are so brazen with their lies.
Labour seems to have nothing to say at all. Stymied and impotent just when we needed them the most.
My advice is that if you can leave, leave now. I would if I could. In the Midlands we are now inundated with cash rich Southerners selling up and moving up here to make their money go further and pricing people out of housing markets (house prices are 50% up in the town I work in) and taking jobs.
These are jobs are not the most highly paid because they are sitting on the the wealth their house sales made them and money is not a problem, so an artificial wage suppressant comes into play. But contrast that with a local younger households still saving to get on the owner occupation ladder who need higher wages to achieve this. Here therefore is just one aspect of a misfunctioning economy driven by property prices.
This economy and this country is FUBAR – fucked up beyond all recognition. That’s what it is.
The United Kingdom of FUBAR.
And we need a voice to point that out to the public, to tell them the truth en masse.
And we don’t have seem to have one.
Maybe things have to get much worse before the penny drops in which case we know where we stand.
Where do you suggest we go? I mean this seriously. I have thought something similar but had nowhere to go.
@ Pilgrim Slight Return,
“My advice is that if you can leave, leave now. I would if I could.”
This has been said as long as I can remember. Where would you go? And why aren’t you going now or could have gone when you had the chance?
I’ve worked overseas and there’s no reason why anyone shouldn’t do that. Poms sometimes have a bad rap for being too critical in Australia. I would expect that they are the ones who made the switch for the wrong reasons. The UK is a popular destination for many as we all know. This is not to say we don’t have our problems but so does everyone else!
@ Richard,
I’m not sure, though tempting as it might be, that we can blame the Tories for a “chronically under-vaccinated population”. Over 80% of adults have had two vaccinations and and over 90% have had a single one.
Anyone who wants two jabs can get two jabs and they don’t cost anything. One factor will be a reluctance to having a second jab after having a bad reaction to the first. I was unwell for a couple of days after my first AZ vaccine and so that is understandable. Other factors will be less understandable such as a belief in the nonsense that is passed around on social media.
Part of me does think that it is just too bad if they then get sick. But the more responsible side of me recognises that there are others to consider too.
An “essay” is not the way to communicate with potential voters and at 11,500 words it is unlikely to be read by many.
I would have headlined this article “Less than fully vaccinated people account for 98.8% of Covid deaths”
That’s around 10% of the adult population who have a factor of 741 times more chance of dying from Covid than the other 90%
(98.8 x 90) / (1.2 x 10)
If you allow for those who have had a single dose still having some protection the figure is even higher for those who haven’t had any jab at all.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/13/fully-vaccinated-people-account-for-12-of-englands-covid-19-deaths
“A triple crunch now looms: an economic crunch as the post-lockdown bounce in activity falters; an energy crunch that will make it even harder for those on low incomes to make ends meet; and a climate crunch as the government struggles to turn its fine words about a net-zero transition into action.”
No Brexit crunch?
Funny how Mr Elliot overlooked that one.