The basis of the appeal of populism is twofold. One is that it can keep the wheels on the bus going round-and-round. The other is that it's possible to choose who will be on the bus. As political philosophies go it is crude. The whole logic implicit within it is that the benefits of the economy can be directed towards some in society, and that indifference to everyone else is acceptable.
As sold in the UK the idea behind populism was that the exceptional British economy could be directed for the gain of those who were British, with massive racist overtones as to who they might be, but with an explicit expectation that those from the EU were to be excluded. The logic was sufficient for the Tories to win elections from 2015 onwards, and a Brexit referendum, of course.
There are two problems with selling a political narrative as basic as this. The first is that the wheels might fall off the bus. The second is that those on board the bus may not be those who the supporters of populism expected to be there, and that they find themselves excluded after all. The difficulty for Boris Johnson is that both are now happening.
Some might say it would be fair at this point to acknowledge that Johnson could no more have predicted the Covid crisis than the rest of us. But that is not true of course: the government of which he was a part well before he became Prime Minister was aware of this risk and did nothing of consequence to prepare for it. He compounded matters by his dither and delay after the crisis unfolded. Only yesterday the Governor of the Bank of England acknowledged that recovery is now running slower than he expected. Government policy failure about reopening, vaccines for children, schools and ventilation are clearly key to that: the vulnerable in the population who do not trust the government to protect them are not willing to take the risk of returning to normal. What is happening is really quite simple to explain in terms of the recovery. The British economy is not exceptional, and nor is its government. On any measure it has and is failing to address the issues that demand its attention.
But in many ways, worse for the government is the attempt to control the appearance of those allowed on the bus. Brexit has pushed unexpected populations off the bus, the most obvious being people in Northern Ireland. The success in making the bus unattractive to others on whose skills we depended - including, quite literally, the drivers - is having a more than unfortunate consequence. It is entirely possible to say that the wheels are falling off the economy as a result.
Worse for the government is that what is becoming apparent is that this bus is a double-decker, and those on board fit into two quite different classes, which is a deceit they have always sought to hide. Downstairs there are those who qualify to live in the UK, although the tolerance of all of them is open to question amongst fellow passengers. Upstairs the clientele look very different. To get on the top deck you need to meet a number of very specific criteria, which are a little flexible, but have a recurring theme that focuses on privilege.
The first such criteria is that you have to be well off. Then you are favoured.
It very much helps if you are not just well off in terms of income, but are also wealthy. Not only have those in that category been enormously favoured by the boost to their wealth resulting from the Covid measures that have massively increased the value of their savings, they are also explicitly favoured by continuing bias in government tax policy, as seen this week.
And in the front seats are a special category of passengers. These are the elite for whom the government seeks to provide favours. They not only do not pay for the ride that they're on, they are actually paid to be there, without having to even break into a sweat to earn their good fortune. That fortune is now enhanced by government largesse at cost to all others, including all those on the lower deck, whilst those at the back of the top deck are only kept in check by their desire to be in the front seats, which at some time they will realise that is really not going to happen
Is this sustainable? It is, but only for as long as those on the bottom deck don't notice the staircase to the top deck and ask why it is that they are excluded from going up when a never-ending flow of favours paid for on the backs of their effort appear to be heading for the party that's taking place on top for which they don't have a ticket, despite all the promises made to them.
Will the national insurance increases, rising Covid cases, ever more apparent shortages throughout the economy, sluggish growth, rising unemployment, an NHS crisis and growing tensions within the Union, let alone with neighbours further afield, coupled with military defeat be enough to indicate that the party on the lower deck has not only failed to start but is going precisely nowhere? That is the question of the moment. I suspect that the answer is going to be yes, and sometime soon. The reality is that the bus is not only broken down, but has now run out of road, even if a temporary repair might be done. There is nowhere left to go on this route unless the void beyond the cliff near which this bus is located is to be the actual destination.
My suspicion is that lower decks will realise that it is time to get off before the top deck does. They have many fewer incentives to stay. But those departing are not that noticeable as yet. Give it time though. Once the idea that a bus is going nowhere starts to spread people quite quickly look for a better means of achieving their goals. And that is what might be happening soon here in the UK.
But it would help if an alternative was available.
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It’s funny I read this on a train to work. All kinds of people, young, old, manual workers, office jobs and of all races are on their way to work and enjoying some “normality” post lockdown. I think you should do the same
The evidence is that this is not true
You and I can note anecdote, but normality has not returned
Yes – they’re going to work to find out who has come down with Covid and also talk about the recent deaths they might have just seen from it – like my colleagues and I did last week.
Last night on CH4 News there was a report form a hospital in East London where 90% of the those in intensive care with Covid has not been vaccinated. These people were VERY poorly.
Normal you say Steve?
DENIAL I say Steve.
Only numpties would believe there is anything ‘normal’ about this – trying to live with a shape -changing virus that could over-top current vaccine ‘designs’ given enough time – and it is being given enough time.
So, topping up vaccinations (as is being suggested) is ‘normal’ is it?
There’s only one thing trying to be normal here – that is the drive for profit and the sweating of assets by the rich to squeeze more out of them – including the feverish sweat of those put at risk who contract Covid and who have to go off work or end up dying from it in the end.
Are we clear ‘Steve’?
Now go and ply your ignorance somewhere else. You disgust me.
I say enjoy “some” normality.. I will be at Spurs this Saturday and 60 odd thousand will be there also.. let’s hope it continues. Too much negativity on here I am afraid
Have you seen the data on Covid infections?
They are the reality
That and the impact on long term wellbeing
So 150-200 people dying every day with 35-40,000 new cases and associated long covid is ‘normal’? Only in the minds of a callous and indifferent government and its supporters.
Talking to family and friends in France, Australia and India this week, they look at the UK in amazed horror. The UKs numbers are in the same range as the whole of India.
I’m with you as far as “soon.” The media will be labouring mightily to persuade people we are all victims together, all oppressed by malign non-Brits.
I’m afraid the ‘alternative’ will be a problem for a while. It seems that the Labour party is determined to define itself as ‘not being Corbyn’. I assume this is a strategy to get newspapers and rich donors onside. But it is a terrible strategy for getting the vote out come a GE.
I sometimes wonder why people voted for Brexit. I wonder whether they did in fact think they would benefit or did they just want those who have ignored the plight of their existence for so long, to suffer from the same. Those in well paid jobs to experience low pay, zero hours and cuts to benefits? There are a great many who have given up engaging in our electoral system and even aggressively respond to any attempt to discuss politics with them. There is huge disengagement and I wonder where this bus is going… People feel powerless and I wonder whether they could accept “authoritarianism”? There is nothing between the two biggest parties and I might consider voting “Green” but how many will give up on our corrupt system altogether and just accept that they should do as they are told?
The EU HGV drivers and farm workers that have been driven off the bus are also part of the problem.
With regard specifically to your post, I go back to what Timothy Snyder refers to as the conditions pf a ‘pre-fascist’ society in that it has been taught to accept less, to endure and accept hardship.
And, instead of tilting their heads to look up at the real source of their lot, they are instead encouraged to look to their immediate left or right – at their neighbours, or those boats crossing the channel – and see them as the problem.
As he says on page 22 of ‘The Road to Unfreedom’ (2018) about the pre-fascist mindset:
‘I and my group are good, because I am myself and my group is mine.’
This is a mindset of a weird sort socialism of shared living experiences and circumstances – the sharing of hardship, lack of hope, aspiration. The commonality is here, as much as there is a commonality with the well-heeled who fund the Tory party.
These people ‘do not expect to live longer, happier more fruitful lives. The accept suffering as a mark of righteousness……….Life is nasty, brutish and short; the pleasure of life is that it can be made nastier, more brutish and short for others’ – especially those who are not the same clan I wager.
Their collectivism and their solidarity is born of neglect. These are the people on the bottom of your bus Richard. Snyder calls it right.
And Labour has abandoned these people to chase swing voters. Ha! Nice work!
I’m reading his other book now ‘Our Malady’ (2020). On the very first page he talks about the concept of ‘malaise’ (p.3):
‘..means weakness and weariness, a sense that nothing works and nothing can be done ‘ – it ties in nicely with his description of ‘inevitability politics’ in his 2018 book above (TINA and all that). Do you recognise that description here and now? I do.
To show you what this really looks like I’ll tell you of a meeting I’ve just had discussing one of our new affordable housing schemes in the city where I try to work.
We will be going for a hybrid of low carbon design, heat pumps, underfloor heating, solar PV and Passivhaus design standards in terms of air tightness to make them as cheap as possible to run for tenants.
But at the end of all that, we had to accept that all our efforts will be essentially undermined by kilo watt charges for electricity still being charged by the privatised companies supplying the grid and their rentier investors.
Every step we take forward is taken away either through levies through Council Tax, NIC, increased prices or whatever as the rich take more of a grip on our essential services.
We are going to have to accept that we have ‘socialism through enduring suffering and hardship’ for some time until the spell is broken. It will not be broken quickly because huge amounts of money are being spent to keep it going by promoting ignorance through agnotology, boosted through advances in communication.
I offer this not to put you off or blunt your efforts. I offer it only to offer clarity in order to think more deeply about how we fight it.
The key thing is not write off people who think like this and think about how we engage with them. They are our friends, neighbours and colleagues.
As Synder says in his book ‘Bloodlands (2010, p. 400):
‘To yield to this temptation, to find other people to be inhuman, is to take a step toward not away from, the Nazi position. To find other people incomprehensible is to abandon the search for understanding, and thus to abandon history.’
Alas, I fear the definition of “soon” may be a little elastic in this instance.
I note this morning that the call of “illegal immigrants crossing the channel” has risen its ugly head again, clearly as a distraction from the shambolic Care ‘Plan’ announcement (amongst other things)
So whilst the tour guides seated at the front of the top deck are able to shout out “look over there….” to distract those on the bottom deck as they are about to get off the bus then they are likely to stay with them on their journey of doom and despair.
Furthermore whilst there are plenty of wealthy donors around to keep the bus looking shiny and well maintained, I fear some people are unlikely to get off any time soon.
As you allude to the alternative buses are definitely in need of a bit of maintenance and should be advertising a much clearer destination.
What Labour is not consideing is the over 30% who did not vote in the last election. They already will not vote for the Tories so they must be more receptive to Labour or the Greens.
Exactly. The opposition parties need to (a) present an attractive vision and (b) get out the vote (including mobilising the people who think their vote does not matter). What might the next election result look like with a turnout of 80%, not 60 to 70%?
Richard,
To take the bus analogy one step further, not only have the wheels come off, but the people on the bottom desk are in Fred Flintstone mode, carrying it while running.