On 17 July there were 54,674 new Covid cases. There were forecasts that cases could reach well over 100,000 a day. On the basis of reasonable exponential growth expectations that seemed likely. And on July 25 there were 29,173 cases.
What is happening? No one can be sure. Hospital admissions and deaths are, of course, lagged, so they will still rise for a while even if this data is true, which it could be.
And, there again, it might not be. Let's consider those possibilities.
First, schools in England, and more especially the parents of schoolchildren in England, are not requiring testing anymore as it is summer holiday. So who knows if there are cases there?
Second, people want their summer holidays. Why are they going to get tested, which might prevent that?
Third, they are told there is a 'pingdemic' so they delete the NHS app and do not report that they have a positive test, even if they have one.
And fourth, they just don't care anymore: they are now convinced reporting having Covid does not help, so they are not doing so.
What is the chance that these factors are the dominant strain in the reactions to 'Freedom Day'? Right now I think they are likely. And as evidence, I note that the so-called Zoe app, which measures case rates voluntarily reported by a rather self-selected cohort, thinks that they are still rising. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
Let's be clear: I do not know what is happening. But given all the narratives that are being pumped out by the government and media I think the likelihood that cases are simply not being reported anymore is very high indeed. And that is worrying.
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Although delayed the only figures we can rely on will be hospital admissions and deaths.
Ali,
Would that it were so .
See https://www.liberation.fr/societe/sante/covid-19-ces-pays-deurope-ou-lepidemie-ralentit-20210727_PIDDA6ELV5EGJFL5MBKM6BPNV4/
Translate into english and you will see that France is reporting higher levels of hospitalisation and use of intensive care beds despite lower infection rates.
There will be an explanation but we cannot take figures as unproblematic.
At the moment these figures do not pass the too good to be true test.
Absolutely agree with what you say Richard. I have had similar thoughts over this weekend. I use Zoe and the trend in my area is definitely upwards. My limited experience of being out and about is that they think it is all over. A friend of mine told me that his three year old grandson has just tested positive for Covid. His description of how his grandson had to be held down whilst having the test was upsetting. Yes we could both be wrong but somehow I doubt it.
Good luck to your grandson and his parents
That’s not fun
You ask questions that make sense to me.
Again – there is not enough analysis or interpretation in the media – just amplification without question.
A recipe for disaster.
I believe it was Justin Madders MP who revealed on Twitter that he had confirmation that people testing positive now are not being counted if they have previously tested positive for COVID-19. So reinfections are not in the figures – a good way to make it look as if Freedom Day wasn’t the catastrophe forecast!
Yes – another reason, and crazy
By way of information on the re-infection issue. Data is published weekly – latest here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005056/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w29.pdf#page17
Current figures are very low, around 800 probable and 66 confirmed.
Also, the daily dashboard clearly states that re-infections are not included.
Good morning Richard
You’re right – cut down testing and get the public to see the NHS app as a nuisance and , hey presto, the infection figures have suddenly gone into reverse
It won’t be long before Johnson declares Freedom Day a great success and trying to make political capital out of it.
I share your scepticism that the decline in cases over the past week will be sustained, it doesn’t align with what I see in terms of increased numbers in pubs and restaurants and hear about from acquaintances with family cases. Your suggestion of fewer tests being taken – or at least reported if positive – sounds to be credible.
Another possibility I have heard suggested is that what we are seeing is the decline from a short term spike resulting from increased infection during the social events surrounding the recent European football championships. In which case it will return to the underlying trend which I would guess is still increasing though possibly slowing down a little as vaccination coverage gradually increases.
I have also read that positive lateral flow test results are removed from the record if the PCR test that is taken to confirm (often days later) is negative. HMG has form in fiddling figures, so the truism to lie like a government bulletin should always be applied.
I too have the ZOE app, and contribute to it. And in my area, Dacorum borough council in Hertfordshire, it shows a a steep increase in the last week. And I’m listening to the weekly update from Dr Tim Spector; cases are still rising, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
I think that is correct
[…] By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK […]
Richard, A possibility worth thinking about. Most COVID infection is spread by a small fraction of superspreaders (I have seen a figure of 80% of cases infecting nobody else). I suspect that superspreaders may be more likely to infect other superspreaders, either because of their behaviour or occupation. If this is the case, superspreaders might approach herd immunity long before the general population. Herd immunity will spread down, rather than occur uniformly. Two corollaries:
1) Spreading will start to come more from medium spreaders and low spreaders, with a different pattern of progression.
2) Reinfection, and infection after vaccination are known to occur. Even if second infections spread virus less, the virus released will have undergone strong selective pressure for vaccine resistance. Virus released from a reinfected or vaccinated superspreader, may well have partial vaccine resistance, and will be more likely to reach someone else.
My maths is not up to making any quantitative predictions.
That is not an idea circulating in epidemiology as far as I know
I agree it is too early to trust the decline and that some will be due to assymptomatic infection not being picked up because people have ditched the app and/or are not taking tests for school…but the drop off is sharp and may well be real. The Zoe app is great but it is an estimate not a direct extrapolation, since, although their cohort is large it is not representative. They adjusted their methodology a few weeks ago to increase the estimated cases for every case they have reported. This was on the basis that their reporting cohort are older and more compliant than the general population. They may have over-egged the change at the time or it may have been correct but now that more younger people have had the vaccine and/or have had the virus it may need tweaking again.
Yes it is rather odd. Just a week or so ago I was making the argument on social media that so called ‘freedom day’ was premature and we should at least wait until every adult was offered a second dose before easing up any further.
I’m not sure why the situation has turned around. The motivation for not having tests was always there so I can’t see this can have changed the situation so abruptly. Possibly the end of the football Euro competition was a small factor. I always thought that children in schools were a much bigger factor than was generally realised in spreading Covid, but the fall has happened slightly too soon for the end of the school term to be a good explanation for it.
The total number of previous infections was always likely to be understated by official figures. Many have been asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms which have been mistaken for something else. Testing was sparse prior to summer 2020. Many have not reported in for tests even when they might have suspected they were infected.
It is quite possible that the virus is running out of unvaccinated people to infect if more of the unvaccinated young have acquired some natural immunity without realising why they have. I hope this is the correct explanation, I don’t want extra unnecessary deaths, but it is slightly galling that the Tories will then come out of this pandemic smelling much sweeter than they should.
Cases are down 31%
Testing is down 14%
People getting a second dose of Covid are not counted
Admissions and deaths are rising
The data is a mess
There is some truth to be found – but it is not clear where yet. If admissions go down then I will have to begin believing cases are
The unexpected fall in cases in the last week has been remarkable. I’ve not seen a convincing explanation, but let us hope we really are past the worst, while keeping our guard up as there could well be more bumps along the way. September may not be plain sailing if most school children remain unvaccinated. And think of the many thousands continuing to suffer with long COVID. This is by no means over.
Even if this decline in cases continues – please god! – I expect hospital admissions and deaths to continue to rise for at least a week or two, as they will be drawn from the people who caught the virus in the last few weeks while numbers were increasing markedly. In January 2020, cases peaked around the 1st, hospitalisations around the 10th, and deaths around the 18th.
The lastest numbers are 945 hospitalisations on 22 July and rising, and 131 deaths reported today (the number of deaths has been above 50 days per day since 18 July, continuing the inexorable trend of gradual increases since late May).
It would be good if cases are down…..I wait to be convinced
I smell rats right now
Andrew raises the issue of Covid vaccinations for children. This will present an ethical problem if it is shown that such vaccinations may well be effective in reducing infection numbers, and so health risks for others in the wider community, but at the cost of an increased risk to the individual child.
But maybe not such a difficult problem. My view is that it would be unethical to give vaccinations to children unless and until they were shown to be of value to them personally.
I fundamentally disagree
The medical risks of vaccination can already be shown to be much lower than the risks from long Covid
The case for vaccination is already clear.
If mine were still under 18 I would unhesitatingly want them to have it.
One is still 18. He has had it.
You are saying that Covid vaccines are of personal benefit to children. If this is shown to be scientifically correct then we are in agreement that children should be vaccinated.
However, I would say that we need to be totally sure about that and so far the evidence isn’t quite so conclusive as you suggest. The BMJ say that the net benefit of vaccinating children is still unclear.
https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1687
And latest evidence from journal papers strongly disputes that
The ONS weekly surveilence data on Fridays is a random sample, and not contaminated with all the issues you rightly suggest may be behind the drop in ‘official’ daily cases. That was still rising last week – and although it’s at least a week or more out of date – is the only real reliable source of how many are infected.