Why are Covid cases declining?

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On 17 July there were 54,674 new Covid cases. There were forecasts that cases could reach well over 100,000 a day. On the basis of reasonable exponential growth expectations that seemed likely. And on July 25 there were 29,173 cases.

What is happening? No one can be sure. Hospital admissions and deaths are, of course, lagged, so they will still rise for a while even if this data is true, which it could be.

And, there again, it might not be. Let's consider those possibilities.

First, schools in England, and more especially the parents of schoolchildren in England, are not requiring testing anymore as it is summer holiday. So who knows if there are cases there?

Second, people want their summer holidays. Why are they going to get tested, which might prevent that?

Third, they are told there is a 'pingdemic' so they delete the NHS app and do not report that they have a positive test, even if they have one.

And fourth, they just don't care anymore: they are now convinced reporting having Covid does not help, so they are not doing so.

What is the chance that these factors are the dominant strain in the reactions to 'Freedom Day'? Right now I think they are likely. And as evidence, I note that the so-called Zoe app, which measures case rates voluntarily reported by a rather self-selected cohort, thinks that they are still rising. https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map

Let's be clear: I do not know what is happening. But given all the narratives that are being pumped out by the government and media I think the likelihood that cases are simply not being reported anymore is very high indeed. And that is worrying.