The Bank of England has published its quarterly review of credit in the UK. This of course matters: credit is largely about bank loans.
This chart stood out:
In essence, the chart shows the change in default rates by quarter. So, as is clear, small businesses have been not having a great time of late, whilst medium-sized ones have done well. Surprisingly, large businesses have been defaulting.
But what really interested me was the red dots: they are the forecasts for the next quarter. The forecast is for an absolute bloodbath in the small company sector next quarter. So much for a recovery.
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The credit insurance industry agrees with you; rates have been steadily rising.
Many thaks for this (not my usual bedtrime reading). Does not suggest an untroubled path to recovery despite the government’s trumpeting of job growth.
Do you think large companies will take advantage of the collapse and buy up medium ones?
Likely