I quote this from the Guardian news summary email this morning:
British food and drink exports to the EU fell by £2bn in the first three months of 2021, with sales of dairy products plummeting by 90%, according to an analysis of HMRC data.
Overall food and drink exports to Ireland fell by 70.8% year on year, to Spain by 63%, Italy 61% and Germany 55%. The HMRC figures show dairy products down more than 90% and exports of cheese down by two-thirds compared with 2020. Whisky fell 32%, chocolate 37% and lamb and mutton 14%.
Please don't tell me that Brexit is a success.
And please don't tell me that these losses can be recovered from new trade deals. That is impossible.
Brexit is a simple act of economic sabotage in pursuit of racist goals.
The racist goals can never be justified.
The cost is very real.
And this can only get worse.
Amersham and Chesham will not be the last to notice.
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I wish I could be sure that this Bucks. constituency was as upset by the inescapable Brexit disaster as any rational person should be. Unfortunately – for the sake of clear insight – there are so many potential causes of Tory voter flight that it is hard not to spot alternative contenders, not least ones which may arise from political instincts from the still further extended ‘right’. Among these I have seen speculation which is more related to planning relaxations, and thus increased building. Could this result be as much about Bucks. isolation within Brexitania’s isolation – as anything more uplifting? Let’s wait for a full analysis before assuming anything too promising here.
And did you note, Richard, that Labour came behind the Greens (1,480) with a sobering 622 votes? That’s 1.6% of the vote, 11.2% DOWN on the last election. Always glad – jocund – to see one less Tory, but anyone who thinks this represents actual positive change, needs a reality check.
People voted tactically
I have anecdotal reports of Corbyn supporters campaigning for the LibDems
And I am told LibDem canvassing returns suggest that the anti-Tory majority amongst those below 70 was massive
Hi Richard
My first post – please be gentle!
You said “I have anecdotal reports of Corbyn supporters campaigning for the LibDems”.
Could Corbyn supporters be doing this not to help the LibDems or damage the Tories but to discredit Starmer’s Labour even further?
It seems to me there are factions within Labour that are concerned only with its internal battles and would be happy to see the party lose another election under Starmer, whom they clearly despise compared to the previous leader
Rumour has they wanted a progressive alliance
I’m pretty sure my constituency (Hemel Hempstead) is adjacent to Amersham and Chesham. Well Nigel, I for one am delighted to see this result. A nice end of week piece of good news politically, for once. If what Richard says about Corbyn supporters helping the Lib Dems is true, so much the better; a lot more constructive in opposing this atrocious government and its party than yelling about ‘yellow Tories’.
As to why this happened; a combination of three things I think. Local opposition to HS2, anger over the ridiculous planning law changes which will give developers a free hand to do what they like, and, yes, Brexit. It’s good to see people haven’t just passively accepted the lie that Brexit is over and done with, no need to think about it any more. Given the cooperation Labour people seem to have given the Lib Dems here, how about the Lib Dems doing the same in Batley and Spen?
This brings the number of Lib Dem MPs up to 12 – 4 men and 8 women. With the best will in the world, they are not going to form the next government, but it does point the way to a real gain at the next general election, which is tactical voting to get the Conservatives out. It is beyond me why the opposition parties cannot see it is in their interests to cooperate. Would they rather remain in opposition?
I am baffled by Labour’s desire to be pig-headed on this issue
My constituency is Hemel Hempstead too. South West Hertfordshire is between Hemel Hempstead and Chesham and Amersham. SWH is a long thin constituency about half of which is in north Hertfordshire! I’m not sure why it is that shape although I have my suspicions!
I heard that some local momentum members had been canvassing for the LibDems in C&A.
I heard that true
I had to write this as a’reply’ to my own post, as I can’t see how (if possible at all) I can edit or just add to my first post!
I just wanted to draw attention to John Harris’s thoughtful and thought provoking piece for the Grauniad. Perhaps he is on to something? Find it at … https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/18/conservative-seat-england-middle-class-chesham-and-amersham-tories?
Good article
As the weekend of death accelerates to pile our bodies high by some insane Leader worship threatening world domination again aided by the propaganda MSM – there are a bunch of stories being rushed out under cover of the Dismal Game.
Anyone know that there was actually a by-election happening yesterday? Do we know if there are any others? Not from the last week’s media reporting.
The BrexShittery as you say isn’t even yet fully recognised. Starting with the Easiest Deal Never having any intention of being honoured. The DUP bung that kept the Tories in Power in 2017 , just so they could get the Hard BS. Now evolved into its prime purpose for NI (calls itself a country by the Unionists) to stop and reverse the GFA. No Irish Language signs to be allowed. No Stormont to manage the ‘country’ because it is run out of some secretive Crown Office
(Just like the fake Scottish Devolved rotten Politicians).
Little unionists children brainwashed into the next generation of piper boys (boys!) to reverse the two decades of peace.
Talking with building managers last night the lack of workers in the trade is at a dangerous level – buildings sites are in trouble and as for these summer roof fixing jobs – forget it. And medical staff. The Indian hundreds of thousands to be brought over to fill the gap – much delayed.
There is plenty more – how the Wicked Witches of Brittannia Unhinged are cackling as they import nasty meat from the opposite side of the planet! Whilst destroying Welsh farming, first by stopping their EU markets and than by that double whammy – expect a return of more farming suicides of yesteryear.
As for fair trade deals the Aussies ain’t the ones to do them as they secretly try and jail whistleblowers for revealing how they criminally stitched up deals in Indonesia.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/commentisfree/2021/jun/18/australia-has-prosecuted-a-brave-individual-people-who-speak-up-keep-getting-arrested
The 5+1 eyed Gollum desperately trying to hang onto its hagemony by vile proxy and home mass murder.
The insanity of holding a single cricket test match between India and NewZealand in the U.K. in the midst of the superspreading events. The Toffs and Crown want their Ascot and Wimbledon and calendar of ‘sport’ whilst they happily dispense with the rights to fair trial by jury and reporting of such freely under pretext of protecting accusers – a way of silencing dissent just as much as any they accuse the Chinese and Russians of doing.
The EURO football final vying to be held at Wembley with offer of special dispensation for VIPs to come superspread – just as they did to Cornwall last week taking it from lowest rates in the country within days…
I’ll stop here before the post gets any longer. Stay safe this evening, keep your social distances, plenty of ventilation – as the hostelries march us to our doom singing with scoundrels patriotism.
Good to see the tories getting a kicking yesterday. Would also be good to have a decent analysis of why the Tory vote collapsed. I suspect that HS2 and nimbyism were just as important, perhaps more so than Brexit.
As someone who voted for Brexit, partly because of the devastating impact of the CAP intensification of agriculture on the wildlife in our countryside and across Europe, falling food and drink exports are not an issue for me. Another of my motivations for voting for Brexit was anti-globalisation. I hate the idea of Britain punching above its weight in the EU or outside it, wreaks of exceptionalism, colonialism and fascism. Are these the racist goals you are referring to or are there others?
Happy to see Britain take a world leading role in overseas aid, support for refugees, giving away vaccine IP, tackling climate change, pollution and peaceful diplomacy. Militarism and the rape of other countries for the piratical greed of our money class, no thank you.
“Happy to see Britain take a world leading role in overseas aid, support for refugees, giving away vaccine IP, tackling climate change, pollution and peaceful diplomacy.” On which planet do you live? Your internationally uncooperative Brexitania has just slashed overseas aid, stumped up a pathetic low level of vaccine support and has failed to let the HMG supported AZ vaccine be released for general production in the Third World. Oh – and signed a disatrous ‘trade-deal’ with Australia which will wreck animal farming in the isolationist ‘U’ K, where the non-English – and especially the anti-Brexit, pro-cooperation Scots – are ignored, unconsulted and marginalised. As to ‘peaceful’… your admired Brexitania has cosied up to Orban, stirred up trouble in the north of Ireland and sent the nearest thing they have to a ‘gun-boat’ to show its military capability off China. Oh – and by the way on climate change – how do you think a new coal mine is going to help? Or is that dwarfed by Johnson’s climate busting G7 pantomime, including his own flight to Cornwal?
With spectacles this rosy, please don’t try to read traffic lights.
” I suspect that HS2 and nimbyism were just as important, perhaps more so than Brexit.”
Yes, it was good to see the Tories lose but I think we have to be realistic about the reasons for this. I’d go much further and say Brexit was hardly a factor at all in the result. Maybe I’ve missed something Sarah has said about Brexit but she certainly has missed out the topic in her list of campaigns.
It looks like the sort of campaign the Lib Dems might fight when they are contesting a local council seat.
https://www.sarahgreen.org.uk/campaigns
Hi Nigel, it may come as a surprise but you didn’t have to be a Tory or UKipper to vote for Brexit. I fully understand that the internationalist policies I’d like to see Britain take a lead on are not being pursued by the Tories. Someone has to put policies in front of the British people that they will find attractive in the political situation we are now in. The lack of vision across the board is pretty damning.
I have to say that I find the whole thing thoroughly depressing.
I am no fan of the Tories at all. I hate to say it but I hate them.
But the Liberal Democrats? Really? I have no respect for them whatsoever. My feelings for them are akin to those I feel when I see dog poo on the street (walk around and avoid).
Labour are simply infuriating at the moment. If a Labour canvasser came to my door he/she would get the hair-dryer treatment.
I see no one to vote for at all.
None of these parties align with anything I believe in at all.
That’s why I’d vote Green at the moment because they are the only ones who come close.
Tactical voting is not for me I’m afraid.
PSR, Bevan would be right there with you. Your statement of hatred of the Tory party is reminiscent of his most famous speech from 4 July 1948 — “[N]o amount of cajolery, and no attempts at ethical or social seduction, can eradicate from my heart a deep burning hatred for the Tory Party … . So far as I am concerned they are lower than vermin.”
The entire speech is worth a look: https://tidesofhistory.wordpress.com/2018/07/03/lower-than-vermin-the-story-of-bevans-quote-that-lives-on/, though you may already be familiar with it.
I have the t-shirt.
I try not to hate
But I loathe their attitude to people
Of course Richard is right to caution about ‘hate’ both on an intellectual level and practical level as someone who runs a blog.
All I can say in expressing my ‘hate’ is that since 2010 I have seen a lot of unnecessary suffering and waste of money and people since the Tory party came to power. Their existence in Government has blighted my life (when they complete this term, I would have lost an equivalent of a complete year’s take home pay after tax. My after-tax income is now BELOW the average median income by £2500 whereas before it was around £2500 above at 2010 – think about that) as well as many of those around me in the same boat. I’m not even rich – I’m lower middle class in terms of income and pension.
My emotional response to them is driven by the cruelty they have dished out and just like a dog or cat it’s made me rather vicious towards them. The Tories have made my life harder and threatened the well-being of me and my dependents as well as the people I serve and serve with (it’s not just about me). And as this blog has proven time and time, there is NO GOOD REASON for them to behave like this. None. Zilch. They behave like this because they want to and can. And they have lied to justify it and do so even now.
Another example of their cruel tinkering is when they let Councils keep their social rent accruals (rather than sending them to the Treasury) and made Council Housing Revenue Accounts self managing and self funding. Not long after that, they froze rent rises to below inflation for 3+ years. So with one hand they gave us autonomy under localism and on the other supressed the income we could make by keeping rents in in line with inflation. Income that creates surpluses in the HRA that can be reinvested in new affordable housing and now can’t. It’s that sort interference and destruction of possibilities that I hate. You can just imagine them giggling about it at Whitehall. They know what they are doing. They are so ‘knowing’ in their cruelty.
At one stage I was rather outspoken as I saw Cameron and Osbourne rip into the public sector and my attitude was an outlier amongst friends and family. But as time has gone on this has changed, I am a less alone it seems – particularly after the last election where I even had moderate colleagues at work coming to me crying – yes – crying – at the result – the moderation of certain people around me has begun to break down.
Another issue was BREXIT. A member of my extended family who has bought property abroad and is definitely a HNWI, a public school boy no less – now not only reads the Guardian but talks in terms about how Boris etc., should be (shall we say) ‘terminated with extreme prejudice’ and says it openly. All I can do is supress a tired smile and empathise with him even though our lives have nothing in common at all except the deleterious Tory impact on each of us.
One thing I will not do though is ‘hate’ or ‘resent’ my immediate neighbours, my fellow Englishmen who support the Tories. Sure, I will argue fiercely with them if I have to and defend my position and others here on this blog if allowed. The Tories are masters of modern technology and how to influence people, how to seed lies. That is why they fund raise so much – it’s expensive to lie at scale.
But I know who is responsible for all this – BREXIT, the Covid response, austerity and the deaths and economic disruption as a result. The men and women of the Tory party whom I have seen act in power with indifference and without empathy, without humanity and knowledge; without respect for law or tradition or history or our State. And with glee and enthusiasm amidst it all.
How low can you go? None have gone lower than this lot in the modern age. Boris & Co – Cameron before him – are all irredeemable in my view.
The Tories are waging civil war on us. That is what they are doing. And our defences – the voting system, Parliament – are ineffective in this theatre, this ‘assault’ as Peter Oborne has even called it. The Tories hate this country – their hatred of it and us is axiomatic. In fighting hatred you have to meet it equally. That is what war is like I’m afraid. Fanaticism has to be matched. I don’t under estimate theirs. How can we when it is born of the pure ignorance that their wealth and position imbues them with? They might as well be from another planet.
My ‘hate’ ,’resentment’ or disgust for the Tories however is not mindless or mob like. It’s actually quite rational. It is based on facts that I hold to be visible and unacceptable. And that is what makes it bearable for me. I see what they do through the lenses of my own eyes, my own bank account, my own family, my own aspirations for myself and my country and its people and their experiences. My hate is my self defence and an expression of my patriotism. Expressing that hate in another way other than a feeling or attitude would be prejudicial to my family and their well-being and even to this blog and its owner.
But what drives me is not hate, but the work I do with others in the public sector to deal with the outcomes of their cruel Tory policies. If I was (say) doing something like Richard or his colleagues as successfully, then that too would express my intentions for me even better. But I’m not. I’m just a ‘working stiff’ as they say from a working class background who just happens to be building affordable homes in the city he works in – a sort of redemption for my hate if you like.
I cannot help but think that as they go along obviously enjoying themselves the Tories – like any cruel animal owner – are seeding their own destruction/retribution at the hands of those they abuse because at some stage the public will turn on them (although their expert communications strategy will always seek to throw us of the scent of their mendacity).
This is why the big worry about the alternatives – who will fill the void after this – remains a big worry. What follows has to be totally different: No FPTP; no neo-liberalism and something really courageous.
And it has to be, because certain members of the Establishment will hate to see that courageousness and will seek to undermine it like then did when Attlee was here. We really do have to dismantle the structures that have enabled that to happen and arrive at this place today if we are to prevent happening again.
We have to be totally ruthless and as uncompromising as the extremists we have been dealing with. We’ve been tolerating them for far too long because they have certainly not been tolerating us.
I get all that
Perhaps it more accurate to think of the emotion as being anger born of hope rather than hate. As Augustine of Hippo said “Hope has two beautiful daughters; their names are Anger and Courage. Anger at the way things are, and Courage to see that they do not remain as they are.”
I’d vote tactically, but only providing it was following an electoral pact aimed at installing a left-leaning coalition government tasked with implementing proper electoral reform so we could have a sensible PR system. After that, tactical voting just wouldn’t be necessary. The fact that the Labour Party leadership can’t see that they’d end up as the dominant grouping in coalition government more often than not if we had proper PR seems to be very peculiar. It’s almost as though they just want to be on the sidelines as the country is sold down the river by the Tories.
Robert John says: “It seems to me there are factions within Labour that are concerned only with its internal battles and would be happy to see the party lose another election under Starmer, whom they clearly despise compared to the previous leader.”
Sources suggest that Labour membership has fallen by 100,000 since Starmer took over. Presumably all the people who despise Starmer have already left.
In any case, what happened here was down to voters decisions , not party members. Perhaps they just decided that they want more of a choice than just the Tories or Tory 2nd XI – which is effectively what Starmer’s Labour are seen as.
“ Sources suggest that Labour membership has fallen by 100,000 since Starmer took over. ”
The Great Knight Hopes primary task was repurposed to stop the return to the war time Labour Party populism that gave for the first time in the country’s history a equitable government – it took a mere thirty years to start a return to the ancient status quo by infiltration of the party by fake democratic socialists – many of whom were rewarded with ermine and petty dynasties.
That task requires that the actual GRASSROOTS movement and membership is neutralised – because it is dangerous to the controlled govt/opposition(s) pendulum fake left-center-right fairy tale that is the narrative that has evolved to satisfy hoi polloi that we have a CHOICE and a change of government means that it is different!
We don’t. It isn’t.
The narrative requires that there is a ‘change’ to avoid the charge of a one-party state. It is achieved by some highly publicised ‘failures’ of the incumbents. Personal and political. And a story of a saviour in our current scenario -the GKH.
In the previous scenario it was ‘Back to Basics’ and europhobe ‘Bastards’ in the Cabinet.
That was followed by the ‘failure of Browns prudence’ and the happy clappy ‘call me Dave’ supposed ‘nice tory’.
So instead of promoting the GKH straight into office as planned and risking a membership driving policy – it has become vital to disaffect and dissipate that most populist social democratic movement.
(Btw The same is happening with the ersatz Queen of Scotland and the SNP membership over that border.)
It has always been a rusty iron gauntlet that has always been used to keep the peasants down and it is still exactly the same never mind how it is gloved in the softest kid gloves.
Red Star, your analysis of the reduced popularity of the main opposition Party is correct.
I believe the only realistic solution for achieving a more accurate reflection of voters’ interests is a good system of proportional representation. However, it is unlikely the present Government would support this idea. Whether the Starmer supporters in the Labour Party would like it is equally doubtful, particularly if their real motivation is a civil war against the Labour Left and they simply don’t worry about the present vacuum of a real opposition to the extreme right wing policies of our Government. Proportional representation would also enable a proper, public discussion by a substantial minority of voters on public ownership of natural monopolies, investment in infrastructure such as transport, roads and broadband, structural and local planning of housing and development etc.
A more representative voting system would much better reflect cultural and political changes in attitudes amongst the general electorate and would probably put destructive ( not “Conservative” or “right wing” simply “ Destructive”) backwardness in the backseat, in both, main Parties.
Labour’s craven acceptance of neo-liberalism and the Tory world view will be their undoing and ours to unfortunately.
‘Establishment Labour’? No thanks.
PSR, you are right that the acceptance of neoliberalism by Labour is shameful and they should repudiate it. That they haven’t renders tham unworthy of office, I am sorry to say. I can no longer support them, but I can’t stand the LibDems either as they are also neoliberal. Neoliberalism is an ideological cancer than must be excised from the social fabric.
So, we need a non-neoliberal sane party
Now we have the spec….
Thinking about this, I wonder if in a lot of ‘middle class’ seats as much as anything else there will be a demand for what looks like a ‘Competent’ Government?
Secondly the question might be not so much as ‘Could we see a Lib Dem Revival’ but what effect might this have on the internal politics of The Tory Party
I think there is something going on here that is not explained by constituency analysis. Of course, Brexit, HS2 and Starmer’s sliced bread leadership (tasteless wet cardboard) are relevant, but here we have a seismic rebellion, unpredicted, seemingly out of the blue win by a Libdem party being challenged by the Greens in the polls, fatally tarnished by Clegg’s naked careerism in the coalition government and with a clarity of vision similar to advanced cataract. And all this following an apparent national myopia over corruption and incompetence by a government selected purely on ideological grounds, regardless of ability or experience, as witness the red wall in general and Hartlepool in particular. Somewhere or other, British (correction, ENGLISH) politics is mirroring climate change, becoming destabilised. Expect more of the same while we wait for empirical evidence of the truth of the adage, “Cometh the moment, cometh the man or woman.” I am hopeful it might be a political vision, rather than some tub thumping evangelist feeding us a new sound bite. Get Brexit done (Johnson) won’t work again, Go Big (Miliband) is not quite pregnant with vision and Stronger Together (Starmer’s latest spine tingler from only this last week) are currently setting the standard, so the only way is up. I am thinking we could start the process with a competition along the lines that Kellogg use to run on cereal packets for a slogan to launch their latest sugar lumps:
IN NOT MORE THAN SIX WORDS, NONE OF WHICH MUST EXCEED TWO SYLLABLES, SET OUT YOUR VISION FOR ENGLAND’s POST U.K. FUTURE.
Give me an hour or two…..
A green and social new deal
In three words: “Leave Scotland Alone”. Tories’ interference in devolved affairs, particularly via the UK Internal Market Act, can only increase the drift towards the break-up of the UK and what applies to Scotland will also apply to Wales and N Ireland.
Isn’t the answer simply that the Liberals had two things in their favour? People know what they stand for (close cooperative relationship with Europe, now that Brexit hasn’t been avoided). And their traditional ability to use their grass-roots base in local democracy as a springboard for bye-election success.
Wheras no one knows what Labour currently stand for, to the extent that even tribal Labour supporters either voted tactically or didn’t vote at all. And the Conservatives could only count on that subset of their tribal Tory supporters who are also hardline Brexiters.
An interesting take on the Chesham and Amersham result:
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/voter-suppression-lib-dem-style-chesham-and-amersham-election/
Suppression?
Who is denying voter agency here?
Weird…..
To be honest with you, whether hate or anger or whatever, the best way to hit back at the Tories and their hinter land is through the tax system and tax law plus the associated professions – accountancy, legal and the finance sector (I’m also acutely interested in the housing market too, so maybe real estate agents need to be roped in some way too?).
I think that is why the work Richard is doing here is so important. He seems to have it covered.