What will happen in July?

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This new chart from The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, via the Guardian, makes clear that the government’s own Covid advisers think another wave of the disease is very likely this summer, fuelled by the government’s reopening strategy.

The question to ask is what will happen if they are right? So far forecasts have been reasonably accurate as to the likelihood of such events, even if not always as to precise numbers. SAGE reflect that in a range of projections.

The obvious questions that need answers are:

1. Will there be another lockdown?
2. Will the government support those impacted again, most especially as this will happen at peak tourist season?
3. Will the NHS be able to cope at a time of the year when it is not geared to do so? They have holidays too.
4. Will people accept this?
5. Will there be a political backlash?
6. Will the Opposition be ready to oppose this time?
7. Will business confidence survive this?
8. Will jobs survive this?
9. Will employers survive this?
10. What do recurring patterns of Covid suggest life will be like from now on?
11. Can we adapt to this?
12. Will we adapt to this?
13. If not, what happens?

I do not know the answers to these questions. I am saying that to ignore the likelihood of this next wave and not ask these questions now would be irresponsible.