If we don’t see a ‘vaccine effect’ soon the delay in second does vaccines will be the next government policy failure on coronavirus

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Chris Giles at the FT and I are not always known for agreeing with each other, but he is clearly onto something with this thread:

As yet this is not evidence that the government's policy of delaying the second dose of vaccine (and no-one is vaccinated until they have it) is wrong. But right now it does not look good.

We will know more in a couple of weeks, but if the data does not then being to look like that in Israel, which is giving second doses in three weeks, then the policy will very clearly be wrong.

We need to see a 'vaccine effect'. If we don't all the celebrations, and all the reopenings should be put on hold as another failure would have to be marked instead. And I admit, that is what I suspect is on the cards.