I tweeted this last night:
Just checking when would be the right time to admit that we’ve given Brexit a go and it really is the most monumental car crash and so now it’s time to go back? Would tomorrow be too early?
— Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) January 18, 2021
I rather suspect that most politicians will not agree to such an idea, as yet.
But the reality is that Brexit, even with a trade deal, is proving to be at least as difficult as many forecast, me included. Far from helping Britain prosper its consequence is that we are already very obviously going to be a poorer and very divided kingdom, with Northern Ireland (at least) feeling more than ever a part of another country.
I am entirely realistic about the fact that there needs to be a learning curve whilst adaptation takes place, but the problems now arising appears systemic. Put simply, there are very real obstacles to trade now that will increase costs, deny choice, and make it very hard for previously viable businesses to operate. This should not be a surprise: that was always going to be the logical consequence of leaving.
Despite this there is now no party in England, apart from the Greens, saying that a return to the EU should be considered, and yet a substantial majority in the country would now seem to think Brexit was a mistake.
In that case there is a real issue to be addressed here. Not only do we know that Labour and the Tories operate a conspiracy to block the realistic prospect of any other party getting a chance in the UK electoral system, but they are also acting to deny choice in the rump of an electoral system that we have got.
Scotland has seemingly overcome this, by uniting around a single issue. That does not mean Scotland does not face issues if its own. It clearly does, but many of them are the result of a conspiracy by Labour and the Tories to block the choice Scots want to be able to take. So, the issue there comes back to much the same thing that the rest of us face.
The reality is that not only do we have a rotten electoral system in first past the post, but we also have an electoral conspiracy between the two major parties that we do have, whatever their leaderships might be, to block real choice on many issues, come what may.
So the question is, what do we do about this? How do we break this hegemony that is so very obviously bad for the UK as a whole?
For once I admit that I do not have an answer. I wish I had.
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The problem is that the best deal with the EU was the one we had. We were mad to leave rather than try to reform from within.
Any re-entry to the club will be on less palatable terms to the hard core who have dominated the debate.
Sadly, I can’t see it happening in the short to mid term. It’ll be a generation before this issue is raised again, given the turmoil and bad blood Brexit has caused.
As an aside, if re-joining the EU was on the cards, would that not risk us having to agree to join the Euro, which would be a disaster for prospective MMT use within the UK?
The EU requires new members to commit to join the euro
No time commitment is required. Sweden committed to join 25 years ago and has done nothing to fulfil the promise and no one is worrying
Just on the Euro chestnut. To be able/alloed to join the Euro, a member country of the EU has to have had its currency in the ERM for 2 years before applying to join the Euro. So, for the UK – or I hope the rUK (after Scotland’s Independence) – the joining of the Euro does not even arise as any sort of live possibility without a UK/rUK government choosing to do that by joining (ahem. rejoining) the ERM first. End of. The same points do, of course, also rule out that nonsense argument in relation to Scotland’s joining the EU.
I believe that the 52% that voted out would do so again despite the disaster unfolding. It shows a state of denial and bloody-mindedness possibly caused by a combination of embarrassment and a British “we won’t give in” war-like mentality.
I do not see a good long-time outcome……that’s why I recently moved to Ireland.
Polls suggest not now
Support id down to around 30%
Of that 52% who voted leave nearly 5 years ago – a lot of them are dead now !
What surprises me is the utter supineness of the Liberal Democrats on this issue. After fighting the 2019 election as the party of “Hard Remain” (where they increased their vote share to almost 12%, despite winning fewer seats) they seem to have simply given up. Ed Davey strikes me as the most moribund leader imaginable and they are missing a golden opportunity to fight for Rejoin. I’m not saying Rejoin is a majority position – or even a substantial minority position – at the moment – but *surely* Lib Dems could catch some kind of wave if they were fighting for Rejoin, particularly as the problems with Brexit become more apparent. It’s a huge disappointment from a party that needs to differ from both Labour and the Tories to stand a chance of making any impact whatever!
Agreed
Don’t think it is going down too well with the LibDem membership.
https://www.libdemvoice.org/why-giving-up-on-rejoin-is-the-last-straw-66776.html
Im not sure that the Bollocks to Brexit message worked out too well for the LibDems last time with UK voters. I was also out on the streets door knocking – thank you Labour for enabling the Conservatives to win what was a marginal seat for the Cons with no hope whatsoever for Labour.
The EU is also thoroughly fed up with the UK, trust has been deeply damaged and for the next few years it is going to focus on much more pressing issues, without the UK holding them back like a whining teenager back-seat driving. Covid recovery, Climate Change and Russia for starters plus rebuilding the relationship with the USA, by-passing the UK. The idea that the EU is going to welcome the the UK back as a rejoiner is wildly optimistic and I speak as a passionate and angry Remainer – I won’t change.
Its going to be longer term and step by step. That means potentially looking to rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union that are causing the most disruption right now. Possibly EFTA. Freedom of Movement, which has a big impact for the academic and culture sectors, but that means challenging the deep rooted xenophobia and racism that meant that voters could be persuaded that ‘others’ were responsible for their problems. Erasmus and other pan European programmes and industry bodies, which may be joinable on a piecemeal basis.
That as I understand it is what Ed Davey was saying, which is much more realistic than trying to turn the clock back to pre-Brexit in one go, much as many of us might like that to happen. We will never have as good a deal as we had before and we not get near it until we’ve had a profound change in our politics, voters’ attitudes and media (which for now will keep blaming the EU for all the UK’s problems). I fear that will not be in my lifetime. but that will not stop me trying.
Ive also learnt that if its tough for Labour to get decent coverage in the media, its damn near impossible for the smaller parties, short of some major scandal. And yes, that is very frustrating.
“with Northern Ireland (at least) feeling more than ever a part of another country”.
The six counties are another country – they form a part of Ireland, always have done.
The sooner the British Government realise that the better for everyone concerned. At this rate it won’t be long before there is no so-called United Kingdom, as Scotland will break away, teh occupied territories of ‘Northern Ireland’ will naturally fall away, and it will just be left to the Welsh to come to their senses.
The Empire was disbanded decades ago, and it is time the political structures caught up with reality.
By leaving the EU, especially under the strained last minute terms that the parties reluctantly resigned themselves to, means that the relationship will be soured for decades to come.
But first things first anyway – there is an overwhelming need to address the pandemic and all of its ramifications before we can deal with these other issues.
Well, we’d better win Scottish independence first, and sharpish, given the changing situation in NI, because if still part of the UK at border poll time we’ll be flooded by embittered NI Unionists arriving to take up domicile in Scotland, and they will skew the indy vote
They’ll be reminding Scotland that its where their ancestors migrated from, to go to N Ireland as settlers. A whole bundle of ironies there. So N Ireland merges with Ireland and the Unionists scarper to Scotland, whereupon Scotland leaves the Union.
Cue a discussion on the role of Southern Upland sheep farmers in the Highland clearances. Those Border Receivers created trouble wherever they went!
Sadly, despite all this, there will be some who just won’t see it. They will just regurgitate the slogans (take back control, sovereign nation etc.). They may now a be a minority of the electorate but it’s a vocal minority and it is they who the two main parties are pandering to. Along with, in the Tories’ case, the extreme right-wing of that party.
I don’t know what will be the tipping point and when that will come. A starting point will be more moving away from the tribalism of political parties.
2020 was bad. 2021 has started off even worse. Better stock up on the Brewdog.
Craig
Thank you Sir. You’ve said it all. It will be a herculean task to go back now because you’ll be needing time, patience and human investment and above all you’ll be swimming against the tide. First major obstacle are the newspapers: 5 decades of disinformation about what the EU is and what the UK and the World no longer are. Secondly, federate all people of goodwill around a REJOIN party and program, acknowledging that none of the two major parties will be willing to come back to earth. That’s one of the biggest enterprise that could ever be launched in UK. You’ll be needing to invest in people and information. There’s no other way to overturn a decision based on lies, of cloud in cuckoo land. But it’s possible and there are hopes: Abroad, yes but hopes nevertheless. We live in world where 100% national sovereignty does not exist, where recently nationalist and populist parties and politicians have taken over in a number of strong economies: Trump in USA, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Modi in India. Salvini nearly succeeded in Italy. Now look at the COVID 19 figures. The worst hit are those very countries I just mentioned plus Johnson’s UK. Isolationist policies never work. The figures speak for themselves. COVID is the best eyeopener but there are others. Now is the time. Otherwise, the UK youth who are mostly in favour of EU won’t see what they knew in their childhood before 50 years. Act now.
I suspect that we will have to wait for ‘Post Covid’ when the situation may become clearer (less unclear)
Of course it depends how Labour play things, it seems to me that a promise to review the Brexit situation in (say) January 2022 would avoid putting the Leavers backs up right now, and at the same time allow a clearer view of the situation that the Leavers would have to address.
I agree of course that there would be a lot of damage in the meanwhile and the EU may well not want us back unless of course we agree to change some aspects of our politics.
How could Brexit work if the Brexiteers ideology is “Do not listen to the experts”. Well they mean listen to the charlatans. That is already dangerous!
Like Richard Dawkins said: “Shall I fly a plane that carries Michael Gove and Co but I am not pilot or cut him open in an operation but I am not a surgeon ?”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/stephen-hawking-message-trump-brexit-science-death-brief-answers-big-questions-a8585181.html
Stephen Hawking warns world ‘in danger’ from Trump and Brexit in message from ‘beyond the grave’
https://brexitlies.com/
Look at how much Brexit is costing every second at the top of this front page.
It’s worth bearing in mind that individuals who make a living from analysing information for facts as opposed to those predominantly dealing in “received opinion” from someone else helped save the United States’s Constitutional Democracy (or Parliamentary Democracy as the British know it) by helping get Joe Biden elected. Those individuals were the sixty odd judges including Supreme Court judges who rejected arguments the 2020 November election was fraudulent for lack of factual evidence. They upheld the Rule of Law revealing what an important pillar of democracy the judiciary is.
Moral of the story for voters always analyse what you’re being told and checking the facts helps a great deal in this process!
And a reminder of comments from members of the UK government and their cheerleaders, undermining the judiciary in the UK
“For once I admit that I do not have an answer. I wish I had.”
I think that is because, for Britain there is no answer; and for rUK this outcome was always both foreseeable, inevitable and invited. The way back from there is long, arduous and frankly (in terms of resolution of inevitable bad consequences) improbable.
Suppose there was a sudden acceptance in rUK, that a mistake was made in 2016 (notice I do not say ‘realisation’, because the people of rUK did not vote by accident, but by design); what then? The prospect that the electorate of rUK will ever be reconciled to apply to rejoin the EU as a full member is an illusion; I do not believe it will happen in any set of predictable future circumstances. That ship has sailed, and it promptly sank. rUK no longer builds merchant ships. It will not return in our lifetimes.
What then? Apply to join the Single Market, or the Customs Union? I am sure the EU would be happy to accept rUK, and negotiate in good faith; but even that – from where rUK ideologically is now – remains improbable, but let us suppose that hurdle is leapt within everyone here’s lifetime? Such a reconciliation will still not compensate for what rUK has given up in freedom of movement, and will not eliminate the large number of electors ferociously unreconciled even to such modest aims; it will never return to what we had, and our politics will be disrupted by the opponents of such a move, as if they were betrayed. We should be able to see where that leads; we have our own bullies, confident they will never be brought to account for themselves, simply because their opponents are, and remain ‘reasonable’; subject to the demands of tolerance and to seeking common ground; the very things rUK refuses. We will not shake free from the ideological essentialism which promotes a possessive ‘sovereign individualist’, privateering, Hobbist exceptionalism that is forever chasing after a free market, individualist Singapore-on-Thames that exists nowhere on earth; save in the murky stew of Britain’s own tax haven dependencies.
Britain as rUK can never escape itself. The reason you do not have an answer, Richard is that the people of rUK have already given the answer.
That’s pretty depressing
Sorry, Richard – I would rather not have written that comment, but I can only provide an honest view of what I observe. No answer will be found in avoiding difficult facts, however uncomfortable.
I do not think anyone understands how bad things have to be for the Scots even to contemplate giving up on the Union. That is because the Scots were the most committed to the UK Union and (more uncomfortably for Scots, the Empire – for better or worse), and more than rUK, from the later 18th century onwards. The changes have taken decades, generations in Scotland to unfold but there is always a ‘tipping point’, and then matters move quickly.
I understood your reasoning
But it is desperate that we have reached this state
According to Polly Toynbee, BREXIT voters still think that it was a good idea to leave.
It is the way it was done by this Government that is now becoming the focus. The way it has been done is that it has been done badly – and very. Opportunities abound when stupidity has been at work. BREXITERS blamed Europe wrongly for our woes; this time they might finger the right culprits.
As a Remainer, you have to stop and blink when you hear something like this.
So, what did the BREXIT voter actually want? Change but with no consequences? But people like Daniel Hannan said that the Single Market was safe (you can see this on Youtube). What can we say about that statement now?
It is very easy to point your finger at the BREXIT voter and say ‘WTF?’, but we must remember that some of the biggest porkies were told on an industrial scale in the Leave ‘argument’, and that the result was so close – proof if any that LeaveUK did indeed target many undecided people with the surreptitious use of their personal data during the campaign. The manner of winning lead to people like Cummings becoming the centre of attention. Actually, it wasn’t it him at all – it was the use of online data by those clever people behind the scenes that we are still only just becoming aware of.
Toynbee seems to invite a Labour party bereft of new ideas to offer a better deal – improve BREXIT – as maybe a means to get traction with the electorate. That might be a good idea politically and for the economy if by 2024 or thereabouts nothing is improved. A better BREXIT might also give us a firmer foothold to go back into the EU one day. But apparently Starmer thinks looking at it again is a big yawn. And no doubt if he did, LeaveUK etc., would kick off.
And we still have not even yet dealt with the pernicious effects of online influencing that a Parliamentary committee stated remains a potential threat that undermines our democratic processes. Surely that has to be sorted out first before we can even dream of having proper and hate free national debates on these issues?
For now perhaps, there are no answers so we’ll have to ‘LD’ it: Let it Develop.
But look – I think that Remain has been proved right on all sorts of levels. It’s a bitter triumph wrapped up in a defeat, but a triumph of rationality it still is. We didn’t just want to stop BREXIT dead, we also could tolerate a well done one – it was debated here at length.
It is reasonable to have expected one of these outcomes. We got neither. But it is the whole country that got neither – not just rUK. As long as the ‘teething troubles’ (Huh!) last, and if we deal with online data abuse, there is a chance between a better deal and eventually going back.
What is just as important for me though is the health of the EU on mainland Europe.
Europe – for all its beauty and variety and cultural richness is a graveyard of millions of people killed in its wars over the years. The UK has got sucked into those conflicts and sent our own to die there too. I am very worried that the UK will become a thorn in the side of Europe and contribute to its decline. It would be immensely unforgiveable to contribute to the destabilisation of Europe and then end up sending UK citizens to fight and die again. Speaking as a father, that – along with a manifestly botched BREXIT – is the nightmare scenario for me.
It’s these ideas of Singapore on Thames and freeports on the EU ‘s back yard that are as equally as worrying as the botched BREXIT. What an earth can we do about them?
My analogy to the question of the EU and why Brexit would not work is that every member state is part of a tree trunk that created branches and roots over decades. The reason why the UK’s Brexit is extremely complex and almost impossible to implement is that you cannot undo or extract a member like the UK from a root of that tree. The UK’s economic, legal, scientific etc areas got deeply integrated into the EU’s system over decades. To try to undo that means many financial risks, disruptions to businesses that rely on cross border way of doing business and other unexpected risks that we do not know anything about as yet etc
To me the solution would be for every business that gets affected by Brexit to go to Westminster to knock at their door in queues protesting to mount up the pressure and to prove Brexit is not working and in the meantime to found new re-join parties to have influence just like UKIP did and succeeded (well through lies of breaking point of Turkey joining). However, these re-join parties should have concrete evidence of the damage Brexit is causing in every area of this society and it seems to me it would be too early to do that right now but wait to see how events unfold in the coming months. That way, the re-joiners could then build stronger cases.
Accepted
I know tomorrow is too soon
When I am driving and not sure where I am or where I am headed, but getting that uneasy feeling that all is not well – the one thing I will not do is ask anyone for directions, and especially not someone who almost certainly knows the area better than me. No I will drive on until at some desperate point I will end up on a farm track where my biggest fear is that farmer with a shotgun who really doesn’t want me there, nor is he willing to let me turn around.
This is the gospel according to my wife.
Whatever was in anyone’s mind when they voted Brexit – the majority of the 52% had little or no idea about the reality.
And, yes – I would vote to rejoin next week.
I think that ignored the lesson that should be branded on us all. No vote until we know the terms! The leavers were united only on what they rejected. No terms could have united Jenny Jones and Boris Johnson so the negotiation would have broken the Leavers unity.
And let the Scots also learn this lesson. Whether independence (“in Europe”) is worthwhile depends on the terms they’ll get with the UK and the EU.
The UK or rUK would need a government willing to negotiate a return to the EU. How would that be achieved? As you point out the rotten FPTP and the conspiracy between Labour and Tory parties to keep it that way and thereby block any other option and Labour’s insistence on governing alone or not at all make change almost impossible.
The first hurdle is to get rid of the current Tory Government, unless somehow Johnson was replaced by a pro-EU leader who would also expel the hardline Brexiteers and start negotiations. No chance.
It’s possible Labour could win the next election, but they too would have to undergo a Damascene conversion on the EU and possibly combine with other parties such as the Greens, LibDems and SNP (if the latter were still there) and the price of “coalition” would probably include PR and an IndyRef. Very little chance.
A new Rejoin Party. The history of new parties is dire, and with FPTP even UKIP with 12.6% in 2015 got nowhere. Non starter thanks to FPTP.
A popular revolt or campaign such as the Suffragette movement, together with business putting pressure on Government and/or political parties. Possible.
There are other issues which militate against a Rejoin movement, such as the use of social media as was used in the Brexit campaign and in US elections targeting specific groups to ensure nothing changed. And a British/English Nationalist press delighted to have “happy British Fish” (caught by filthy foreign fishing boats). The people who are making money out of Brexit will bankroll a “Stay Out” campaign and, as with the referendum won’t be too worried about staying within the law. And of course, there’s apathy or acculturation, just becoming used to the status quo.
Or there may be a black swan and we’ll all be surprised.
The last is the most likely
‘Events, dear boy, events” as MacMillan probably did not say
Like I said ‘LD it’.
Time is the revelator.
The reality is that not only do we have a rotten electoral system in first past the post, but we also have an electoral conspiracy between the two major parties……….
Richard, you absolutely right to highlight the fact that our awful First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system is at the root of many of the problems he is investigating on our behalf.
The UK is one of only 3 or 4 major world economies that still us FPTP — much of the rest of the world has embraced PR, with a few notable exceptions which are mainly dictatorships.
PR has the huge advantage that the electorate knows that each vote cast is not wasted. PR enables the electorate to express preference in such a way that if a single party gains sufficient votes to form a government on their own, then at least the electorate knows that the outcome is fair and proportional. When a coalition is needed, the various parties need to discuss their objectives in order to agree on the way forward for effective government and the electorate knows that this will often be the outcome.
PR encourages consensual democracy, but it requires a cultural change in the House of Commons. Not only does the FPTP system encourage the two main parties to seek power to the exclusion of all other parties and points of view, it’s nature is exacerbated by the outmoded physical structure of the debating chamber. This encourages adversarial debate ‘across the floor’ and consensus is not the driving force behind parties and MP’s.
We desperately need electoral reform, but we will not achieve this until the parties themselves see the need and their MP’s know that their voters demand it.
I imagine that many of us reading this blog are in favour of PR. It’s important that we educate ourselves about the benefits, about the oft-quoted inaccurate memes of countries where it doesn’t work and most importantly we explore the route to persuading parties to actively engage in pushing for PR.
The Electoral Reform Society, Make Votes Matter and the Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform are excellent starting points and, like Richard, all need our support.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/
https://www.makevotesmatter.org.uk
Jobs and investment are likely to continue to leave the City of London for the European Union due to Brexit, Ireland’s EU commissioner Mairead McGuinness said as she launched a plan to strengthen the bloc’s financial system.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/brexit/brexodus-of-jobs-from-city-of-london-to-continue-says-eu-commissioner-1.4462606
The reason why I see Brexodus of financial institutions from the city to the EU will continue is that he government would not want to negotiate a deal for services as that may compel the UK to be part of the single market or at least abide by some EU regulations and therefore ECJ which they do not want to do. Furthermore, these very businesses can no longer afford to wait many years for negotiations that may not even take place or succeed by hard Brexiteers and that would mean Brexit will continue to screw up the UK economy no doubt about it.
You see, the fact that Brexiteers motive is emotional (sovereignty, nostalgia, immigration etc) they are closing every door to doing business and investment which is very damaging for the country. I do not see that they will continue to get away with this economic vandalism for long as things are going to pile up and explode.
Is this not a simple case of standing back whilst the brexit fire burns and the Tories try and put it out?
If the other parties were to get too deeply involved in gloating and shouting ‘rejoin!’ it would allow for the Tories to play the blame game.
Brexit seems quite capable at doing its own bad PR no?
Is that responsible opposition?
Well of course a lot of varying levels of opposition have taken place and where do we find ourselves? Crept to the thin end of the brexit wedge by a hard brexit leadership, with all the opposition in the world. The real opposition of course is the deep pain of its results now. Project fear didn’t work. Project real must. And when everyone is screaming for change, I believe the progressive parties will fill the gap… I believe Starmer is trying to avoid single issue politics and go for real issues he can win on, exposing the solution in time. We have found that the media brainwash is such that the Tories win on single issues, on slogans, intangible ideology and lies, progressive politics has to win on reality now.
Brexit is the modern equivalent of pre 1989 communism: ideology over economics and efficient business. It fell because the State Tiller would not allow it to succeed. The same will happen with Brexit. The UK will return to EFTA at least, but as the sum of its parts, rather than the whole.
“Not only do we know that Labour and the Tories operate a conspiracy to block the realistic prospect of any other party getting a chance in the UK electoral system” shades of 1780s when Pitt tried to reform voting (rotten boroughs) failed abysmally and then did a reverse ferret come the French revolution.
Whigs and Tories then and Labourscum and Toryscum now have no interest in reform – we are back in the 1780s in terms of representation. But the issue is wider than that, voting is not & neverhas been “democracy”, what is required is citizen participation & neither party is interested in that – Labourscum membership having shrunk to what it was in the B.Liar period (easier to contol when you have a small clique). That said, Uk serfs get what they deserve. They voted for toryscum three times and at the last election voted effectively voted for Breshit twice. I have no sympathy.
As with everyone else here, I totally agree that Tory and Labour operate a cartel on preventing other parties having a chance of power in the UK. Utterly disgraceful, and it makes a complete mockery of Labour’s claim to be a progressive party. FPTP is an anti-democratic joke that has disenfranchised me my entire life. I will not be voting in future unless it goes.
And as Richard says, they’re trying the same thing with Scotland. Is Labour really so monumentally stupid as to think that Scots will accept this and suddenly desert the SNP and back Labour? Far more likely to drive what’s left of Labour support there even lower. Or is it that Labour are pandering to the English nationalist vote they seem obsessed with trying to get back from the Tories?
Anyway, I was most encouraged Mr Parr to see an article in the Independent corroborating what you said a few weeks ago about how the EU has linked the issues of fishing and power supplies. If the UK ‘government’ tries it on in 2026 re fishing, they’ll be able to cut EU supplies to the UK of electricity and gas; which as you said, are 8% of our supply.
In other words, Johnson’s bunch of clowns have been totally outmanouvered by the EU, and trussed up like chickens. Good. Well deserved.
PR ? Major element of the SDP manifesto way back when – and we still haven’t got it. Have to get the awareness up re PR – and push for it as the price of collaboration between Labour, LibDems , Greens and SNP at next election. The major battle will be to get Labour onboard – they will resist all the way as usual – dreaming of being back in “power” – but progress is being made.
Support MakeVotesMatter / Electoral Reform Society – get the topic on the agenda – it’s not going to happen for the coming election – but we have to push for it for the next one (or folk younger than me do…….. )
I support ERS
I am a member
Here’s how Labour might start
https://encompass-europe.com/comment/dont-roll-up-the-map-of-europe/
Michael Hindley
Former MEP and freelance writer & speaker on International Politics
I very much agree with your conclusion
I am not sure how likely it is to happen