There is a lesson to be learned from the US presidential elections, and those for the Senate and House.
There are two ways to present that argument. One is long winded, and the other is short. I'm going for the short option.
Trump did well. Biden did marginally better. But if you want to know why Biden did not race home the explanations are easy to find.
He took minorities for granted.
He offered very little in the way of policy that might enthuse anyone.
And he did not offer hope as a result.
So the lessons are, don't take anyone for granted; do offer real policy alternatives and don't make them dogmatic but simply ensure that they offer what might best be called on the ground hope.
Bland is no longer good enough.
Presumption is not acceptable.
And the left can win. But it really is time it did so by out-thinking the right, and by explaining why it's ideas are the right thing to do.
I hope Labour and the SNP are taking note. They need to, because right now both are playing the Biden game, and it's really not good enough.
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Surely a contest between Mr Biden and Mr Trump is constutional extreme right versus unconstitutional extreme right? Rather than left versus right. Mr Biden would be considered a raving fascist in the UK of GB&NI which is itself a country of the right?
I’m not sure you portray Biden correctly
Byt Conservative, certainly
There is a difference
Go on, Alan: which political positions of Joe Biden would qualify him to be treated as a “raving fascist” in the UK?
(It is somewhat breathtaking that a moderate Democrat can be castigated as both socialist and communist in the US, and as a “raving fascist” from the UK, but there we are.)
Biden, like 90% of Democrats, would sit happily in the centre-Right parties of most of Western Europe. Not the UK of course, he’s not barking enough!!
The SNP adopted managerialism (of the existing framework; everything, including GERS) when it first came into office, because its first order, and only purpose was as quickly and determinedly as possible to establish credibility with a very conservative (small-c; both Scottish left and right are overwhelmingly conservative – the myth of Scottish radicalism represents a longing by heretics, dreamers and sentimentalists who were never mainstream) electorate, unimpressed by the history of the Party and its lack of experience. The SNP government established its managerialist credentials (not least cemented by supposed ‘safe hands’, in political-speak, like the accountant John Swinney), in ‘spades’ compared with the terminally sick Labour Party, or an aggressively belligerent, intellectually challenged, and quite obviously talent-bereft Scottish Conservative Party: but it has never managed to move beyond managerialism, or even aspire to possess an imagination.
Agreed.
Although fascinating to watch (with both candidates eating into each other’s majorities as I write) any win by either candidate is rather bitter-sweet.
Trump increased his vote share.
In a way, it is good that Biden only scrapes past the finish line. No complacency. It wasn’t a grand vision that won him the election (if he does go on to win) but a dislike of Trump by just enough people.
Trump’s message is still very popular though. The Democrats need to work out why and appeal to a big chunk of those Trump supporters, or the future still looks rocky.
Novara Media has a good piece on it linked below.
https://novaramedia.com/2020/11/04/win-or-lose-one-thing-is-clear-donald-trumps-fascism-is-no-aberration/
Fascism will only continue survive as long as the so-called Left does not sum up the imagination to offer new alternatives and stops using the Neo-liberal mind view of society and economics.
Left in-fighting and identity politics are also hand maidens for fascism.
I hope Novaramedia have considered all of that.
I discuss identity politics with the young and many are turned off by it
They instinctively get equality
They wonder why some make an issue of it when for them it is a given
In other words, I think it’s purpose is done to the degree that will be possible
The reason the left in the modern world find it difficult to gain traction is because conservative views are much easier to personalise.
Take the UK and and for the the left The Labour Party. When the Party could represent the workers of key large industries (steel, mining, ship building, manufacturing etc) the needs of those workers were fundamental and personal. What they wanted and what Labour offered was
1) The right to a decent wage
2) Shorter working hours
3) a reasonable pension on retirement
4) the right to safe working conditions
5) and possibly access to free education and medical care for themselves and their children
All the above represent personal benefits from voting for a left of centre party. With the decline of those core industries and the unified workforce they produced it is harder for the left to represent an agenda that is personal and as a consequence progressive agendas have become less personal to a voter and more broadly targeted as benefits to society as whole.
The left now promotes issues like
1) A green agenda
2) The right of rights of all citizens to co-exist in a peaceful environment and the right of refugees safe haven
3) The ability of the state to spend what it likes on social goods and to promote increasing welfare for the poorest in society
4) Promotion of the rights of others living outside the home territory i.e Palestine etc
5) The demand for increased taxation to even up inequality
Whilst all these things are absolutely justifiable it is easy for a right leaning populist to counter them and for voters to see problems from a personal point of view which may and probably does override any sense of social justice they may have when it comes to the time to put a cross in the box.
They have concerns over the rising cost of fuel stopping them filling up their cars or giving rise to increased heating costs. Will my cultural identity be effected by increases in immigration. Will incomers gain benefits at my expense. How will I fit in with new customs and faiths and will they push out what I stand for. Will increased Government spending lead to some getting more than they deserve. Will my taxes rise to pay for this spending or inequality levelling. Am I paying for the benefits of others. What do I get from a progressive agenda.
Until the left can find a way to increase the personalisation of progressive policy it will struggle to counter an aggressive right wing opinion. Many American voters see Joe Biden as a rabid communist despite the collapse of arguably all communist states and their replacement by despotic autocrats but that is their view despite all the evidence to the contrary. It is easy for Trump to pretend that he stands for the voters personal rights and make himself out to be the saviour of white America and the hugely anti-socialist for obvious historical reasons Cuban latino voters.
The left needs to spend more time explaining their views and policy and how that translates into personal benefits for all rather than take it as self explanatory that a moral sense of social justice is what voters will agree to in the face of potential losses of their personal freedoms, rights and hard cash.
Jeremy Corbyn was vilified and delegitimised because the establishment knew that he would redistribute wealth *and* power downwards. They’ve had 40 years of both going the other way and they are never going to allow a Labour government that would change that, at least not permanently.
They also knew that his foreign policy was to stop fighting endless foreign wars, implying a break with American imperialism and a reduction in profits for arms companies. That’s another reason they made sure he would not be elected.
It’s not difficult to see how these and many other policies that were in the manifesto would benefit voters personally. The fact that they did not register with you and probably many other voters is down to the fact that the establishment run the media.
Good piece by Ben Wray at Common Weal today, as usual.
https://c0mmonw3al.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=d64a340bcb633f536d56e51874281454.731&s=1ea5351bef6e60caad7b105e387a6030
Agreed
There must be something in the air, we have this from Robing McAlpine…
https://sourcenews.scot/robin-mcalpine-the-centre-is-broken-control-did-the-the-breaking/?fbclid=IwAR3TLwnBL_WyfJpAf_nSsEMvdfLy5fKWJpbaeChP4Yy9nyYNCyBi8rVjIOs
Excellent piece
“has expelled the previous leader of the party for saying one mild thing about a report “… this is a quote from McAlpine and you call it an excellent piece??? Have you lost your mind. It is exactly this kind of attitude which allowed anti – semitism to fester in the party for so long. I am very surprised you are cut from the same cloth Richard.
I don’t agree with him on that issue, and we have discussed it
But overall I do
And not do I believe ostracising everything about a person because of a single issue is helpful, usually
Ben h (H surely?) – what a completely over the top reply. The article is about centrism and you hone in on one sentence. Yes the quote is inaccurate – in that Corbyn did not say anything negative about the report, he welcomed its recommendations and said he hoped they would be implemented quickly. The use of ‘mild’ and the aforementioned inaccuracy does convey a dismissive tone, but what are you implying – that McAlpine is anti-Semitic and by extension Richard is too? I think it’s clear who has lost their mind here.
With my heart I agree but with my head I have to ask questions.
We just had two radical projects for change in the UK. Brexit morphed into a monster unrecognisable from the 2016 promises which offers both economic and political damage. Corbynism failed because the British public was convinced it was a project they could not believe in led by a man they could not trust.
Starmer probably is the bland centrist and he seems the favourite to win the 2024 General Election.
I would like it to be true that bold radical transformative policies that tackle inequality and climate change are the correct strategy but it’s hard to see how evidence supports that.
And if your response is just do Corbyn but do it better I’d point out that Corbyn is the most successful left wing politician we’ve had since the 40s. (Arguably the 70s if you feel Harold Wilson counts).
The appetite might be there in an independent Scotland but it does not seem to be so in England, especially if voters think that it might threaten the value of their houses or goes against people’s patriotic sense.
Quite honestly, I don’t think anybody’s message of ‘hope’ would have got through.
I know some Trump supporters (friends of mine from a long time ago and a few relatives as well) who are Trump supporters. What they have in common is they ‘know’ that everything they hear or see that contradicts their belief that Trump is a maligned, hard done by, misunderstood, successful businessman with their best interests at heart is because of FAKE NEWS–engineered and operated by ‘liberals.’ Or ‘libtards’ as they like to call the other side of the issue.
How is Biden or anybody else supposed to break through that complacent and ignorant barrier? I was shocked to the core to discover this unshakeable attitude in people whom I used to respect. And by the way, these are people who are doing well for themselves. They are not the downtrodden masses, etc. This is the portion of the middle class who have been sold a pup. Fear of LOSING what they’ve got, if those nasty liberals get control, is what motivates them. A belief that liberals are godless and evil is another plank to their belief system. And of course, most of them also have guns, or think guns are great and it’s okay to parade around with them everywhere they go.
I have no idea, quite frankly, how to turn this around. I have the horrible hunch that things are going to get a LOT worse for a lot more people.
Biden could have done this or said that, but trust me. It would not have mattered. The people he needed to reach simply aren’t listening, don’t want to listen, and are energised by the way their fearless leader has been behaving.
Remember The Tea Party. Sarah Palin, et al? Their rise to prominence predates Trump by a long way. It’s important not to make Trump the focus of this, although his supporters see him that way. But the attitude has been growing for years, based on people’s reliance on soundbite politics and shallow pursuits that are led by TV, and now the internet. They want easy answers, because they’d rather be doing something else. So they fall victim to people who feed them these easy answers. The Fake News thing is actually a stroke of genius. It means nothing is real unless you believe it is. And you can believe whatever you want.
The current situation is very scary, and I don’t actually see a political solution at this point. Even if Biden had won by a good-sized margin, and the Democrats had taken the Senate, and the Supreme Court wasn’t stuffed with Justices who have no real qualifications, these Tea Party folk would still be there, still seething and fermenting and building grievances, looking for easy answers and people to blame.
There are no real easy answers to this, unfortunately. And while Labour and the SNP are certainly watching events, and may or may not take some lessons from what’s happening, I also think the situations aren’t really all that similar.
I’m an ex-American, and have been encountering this kind of warped thinking all my life. It’s only now, with the rule of law becoming ‘the law is what I say it is, and I’ve got the gun,’ that these folk are truly feeling they’ve come into their own.
The ‘America is the Greatest’ notion has been with the country for a LONG time–fed to us as children in schools, etc. The notion is ingrained in us that while there are faults, the American system is the best system in the world. (That complacency and sense of righteous superiority exists on both sides of the left/right divide.)
One of the most refreshing things about NOT being an American any more is being among people who don’t think that way. I have been talking to so many old friends on the other side of The Pond, and the thing they all say …some joking, some serious …is “Can I come and live with you?” They want to escape, because they don’t see a way out of this mess now. And frankly, neither do I.
I remember what my brother-in-law said, during the 2016 campaign, as he was going door to door canvassing for Hillary Clinton. “We used to think we lived in a nice neighbourhood. We don’t.”
Thanks for this. I appreciated it.
@Jan Foley – thanks for an ex-american’s take on this.
I take some crumbs of comfort from reports of how quiet Republican senators are being on all things Trump and election at the moment. It seems that many Republicans will be glad to see the back of Trump.
Can America heal again? I hope so, although they do seem to have taken themselves back to the 1950s and 1960s in terms of equality and respecting all citizens. It reminds me, time and again, how hard it is to have peace and how easy it is to damage it.
Here I am thinking of N Ireland – we really needed another generation to pass before things would have fully settled. Along comes Brexit and shatters the hopes of many for peace.
As to Biden – he may be able to bring some measure of ‘healing’ to the nation.
For Labour and SNP – yes, take note – and really get to understand what the voters think and how to explain the benefits in a way that resonates.
Hi Jan,
I agree with you. To think Biden could have done something different and hoards of voters would have flocked to him is wishful thinking. Trump is not the problem. He is the outward manifestation, the physical embodiment of something much deeper. His supporters didn’t just happen. They’ve been around for a long time, conditioned to think in simple terms. For them, the American Dream makes sense of their lives. While living out this fantasy they can do whatever they like, just like you could in the days of the Wild West. The power of myths cannot be underestimated. They are passed on from family to family and within communities. Dissent will mark you out for trouble. Acceptance will gain you friends and respect. You can feel good about yourself because you believe in something you are rewarded for believing in. Trump and other authoritarians have a talent for tapping into these tribal undercurrents. They know how to stoke up fear and resentment. There is very little that can be done to persuade people once they have succumbed to the point where they will take orders from a man who advocates drinking bleach as a cure. It is very hard to see how regular politics will offer more than the fantasy politics that proclaims whatever you dream you can have. At stake, ultimately, is democracy. We think of it as a given, a prerequisite for how things run. But Trump supporters do not believe this. When their number exceeds those that do believe in democracy, the game is up. Democracy has to be fought for every hour of every day. It has no natural right to exist. If Bidens wins, he has at least bought some time. I’ll take that right now.
Richard
Identity politics may be done, but the Right will always try to use it and if we are honest it will be using what the ISPs know about deep personal human psychology and messaging on the internet – something that we have still not come to terms with yet. To me, identity politics will always a risk.
Also, the Left/progressives need to get away from the identity politics of rich versus poor and instead genuinely concentrate on how to reduce unfairness/inequality instead of using what inequality exists as step into power. This is the problem Biden and Harris will have to contend with if they want more than a one term Democratic presidency.
As long as the Left relies on inequality to justify its existence, it has an interest in perpetuating it and this encourages the Left to follow Neo-lib doctrine and market mantras.
The exit door for the Left is MMT, GND or what I would call Practical Fiscal Policy (PFP).
I’ve worked in housing and communities since 1994, and the thing that drives resentments and chaos in this country is the lack of resources – space, money, opportunity, security all of which could be dealt with if resources like money could be more equally shared out. PFP could sort a lot of this out.
Noted
Well said
@PSR it really IS that simple isn’t it! Housing and land ownership in the hands of the increasingly risk averse few, simply using it as an extractive financial resource, is throttling this country. Kills hope, suffocates opportunity. I’m interested in self builders – there is nothing more empowering than building one’s own home – you’d think it was the Tory dream of sturdy self reliance but it is all but impossible to access.
PSR.
You’ve got me thinking.
Politics and (much of) human interaction is basically dealing with the allocation/distribution
of resources.
Whether it’s joining a trade union, free masons, political party, or even the golf club. Social status dictates to what level you get access to resources.
Biden needs to increase access to basic human needs/resources to the average American Joe/Joanne.
Health care, affordable housing, access to an stable income, for starters.
Trouble is that the corporate lobbyists and big business (his financial backers) don want him to.
If he doesn’t, Trump 2.0 will soon come along and fill the void.