Today is not really Election Day in the USA. It may well be that a majority of those likely to vote in the US Presidential election have already done so, despite the obstacles put in their way. It is believed that a majority of those who have done so are registered Democrats.
I am making no predictions on what might happen over the next few days in the USA. I have my own wishes. I would like to be optimistic. But candidly, I am not.
I remember that Clinton was forecast to win in 2016. I remember that she did win most votes. I recall, all too painfully, that Trump got the White House. I accept that almost any outcome is possible in that case, despite the forecasts and despite the early voting.
My most fervent wish though is that the ballot box decides this. I hope for order. I hope there is no violence. I hope that court involvement is minimal. I hope that the people of the USA get the President that they choose, and not one that legal process imposes on them.
It's hardly radical to say that today democracy itself is on the ballot paper in the USA. But that we can get to the point where we do not think that is radical is startling in itself. That we have a US President who does not see himself as bound by the law, voter preference, or the long standing etiquette of politics is staggering.
We have descended a very long way in both the UK and USA. My fervent hope is that the descent is halted today. My nagging doubt is that my hope is misplaced.
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The race does appear to have tightened recently, but from what various US pundits and podcasters have been saying over the last few weeks, the apparent euphoria at Trump’s rallies is very misleading, that a majority of people, particularly seniors, are very p***ed off that they’re happening. Let’s see.
I’m hoping for an acceptable outcome – not the best because Biden, whilst better than Trump, is not the best option for the USA or the world – but preparing for the worst.
I just can’t see Trump accepting any result other than him being voted in for four more years. I just don’t know in what form that refusal will be.
Craig
Another angle on the US Presidential election is that if Trump wins, there is little expectation that he will win the popular vote against Biden. If that happens it will not be a freak event but the third of the last 6 US Presidential elections where this has happened, something that’s not good for Democracy in general.
A final thought for any Brit with the temptation to be smug and feel morally superior towards America, the UK has a Head of State that nobody voted for.
The ballot box won’t decide it.
It may decide who controls Congress or the Senate, but the Electoral College will decide who is President.
The best that can be hoped for are both houses being controlled by the Democratic party.
Trump is highly likely to be awarded the Presidency.
Things will only get worse, once his dementia really kicks in.
Biden to win.
Harris VP.
After two years, Biden dies/resigns.
Harris President.
VP……………………………………..Hilary Clinton
I’m very tempted to say “relax we’ve got this” but a little cautious as trump could still legitimately win, even if that’s not the way to bet. But it must be said that this election is much more likely to be a strong rejection of everything trump and associated republicans than a trump win, and I hope at the end of this a message will be sent around the world. Cleaning up the mess will take years though:(. Ex Brit living for many years in TX and now in CA.
Good luck
Thanks – but right now it’s not looking good, and my optimism looks misplaced.
– started drinking…
And my optimism was misplaced and I will be drinking for 4 more years.
Don’t want to be too downbeat, but I feel we can kiss the environment goodbye if Trump wins.
If it’s not too late already!
4 more years of inaction and it may be too little, too late from then on.
We humans have created such a complex and interconnected web of interactions, that change is very hard to bring about. It’s like no-one is really in charge of it, to make the changes that are needed.
Martin Wolf on the FT agrees with you
It might turn out to be a rather long ballot.
It’s really obvious this morning that Trump is trying to undermine the postal vote.
Frightening.
It is going to be squeaky bum time on this one.,