The second wave is coming – but not before Johnson will declare victory

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I have been reliably assured that for the next two weeks we are going to have good news on Covid 19 deaths. And better news on excess deaths, come to that. In two weeks time Johnson will be announcing a massive reduction in these.

You can imagine the lines:

We fought Covid on the beaches

We fought it on the landing grounds

We fought it in the fields

And we fought it in the streets

And we won!

Or something like that.

But that is not true. The fall in cases is a pattern that necessarily follows lockdown: the virus could not successfully infect enough people and so the cases fell. It is also a pattern all pandemics, broadly speaking follow according to advice I have been given: they go in waves.

But note this picture this morning from the Mirror:

No social distancing there. The train would have been packed.

And so the second wave begins.

At this rate admissions to A & E will rise in two weeks. By the end of June deaths will be rising again: there is a six-week delay, near enough. And July and August could be horrible.

And there will be no one but the government to blame.