I have been reliably assured that for the next two weeks we are going to have good news on Covid 19 deaths. And better news on excess deaths, come to that. In two weeks time Johnson will be announcing a massive reduction in these.
You can imagine the lines:
We fought Covid on the beaches
We fought it on the landing grounds
We fought it in the fields
And we fought it in the streets
And we won!
Or something like that.
But that is not true. The fall in cases is a pattern that necessarily follows lockdown: the virus could not successfully infect enough people and so the cases fell. It is also a pattern all pandemics, broadly speaking follow according to advice I have been given: they go in waves.
But note this picture this morning from the Mirror:
No social distancing there. The train would have been packed.
And so the second wave begins.
At this rate admissions to A & E will rise in two weeks. By the end of June deaths will be rising again: there is a six-week delay, near enough. And July and August could be horrible.
And there will be no one but the government to blame.
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You forget that there is always someone to blame, be it foreigners, European bureaucrats, Remoaners. This time I think it will be the public for failing to show “common sense”. We shall see.
People don’t like being blamed for killing granny
That is what the black death did in the 13th century, it either killed so many or drove people away from infected areas, there was no one around to infect. Then people thought it was over and went back to their old towns and villages, second, third and fourth waves happened. No herd immunity there. Damn nasty stuff disease
Mencken yet again: “No one lost money by underestimating the stupidity of the populace “
Exactly what you’d expect from a PM who is a lazy, narcissistic egotist; a comlpete inability to admit responsibility for his own failures. Given the servile, ‘I don’t want to hear bad news nature’ of the (English – I excuse the Scots from this) electorate, he’ll quite possibly get away with it, though not in Scotland.
Perhaps not though. Especially if there is a really bad second wave following his ‘advice’. And I suppose there’s always the cheering thought (already mentioned here by others) that as this disease mostly kills those over 70, and they vote heavily for the Tories, Johnson is killing off his own voters.
Just like the US then, where Republican governors are easing lockdown restrictions before the pandemic is anything like under control because Trump thinks his chances of re-election will be done for by a locked down economy. In total opposition to all the medical advice, an action likely to result in a huge death toll. Oh well, as these are the states that voted for Trump in 2016, large numbers of Trump voters are probably going to die in the next few months.
‘That which ye sow, that shall you reap’.
An awful picture, the picture itself and the picture you paint of increased deaths that will inevitably occur as the consequences of the change in policy take time to emerge. The government will be to blame, but they are already way ahead of this with the their messaging as they are, after all, Tories, and their thinking is totally at home where finding ways to avoid blame is concerned. For instance, Boris Johnson was clear that people should avoid public transport where possible and instead walk, cycle or use cars, and also to stay alert. Regardless of whether that is possible for people, the message is clear. So, the calculation in his speech was there to see, all the ways in which responsibility for further spreading the virus diverted to each and every one of us except him as, well, he did warn us. And all he had to do was not mention the myriad ways in which the people in the picture above had no other alternative but to be waiting for the train. It’s good that there are blogs like yours with a large readership, placing responsibility where it truly belongs, as the MSM message seems to be doing little to hold the government to account.
So in a months time he claims victory, job done, and he’s resigning to spend more time with his (current!) family. Then when the second spike hits someone else is in the hot seat to carry the can.
Yet another sign that the real policy remains ‘herd immunity’ by any other name – including fake branding of ‘quarantine’ at the borders. Amidst all the apparent indications that Johnson was doing a lot of his messaging on the back of a fag packet – and then forgetting which one he had ben scribbling on – the real evidence of carefully promoted ‘messaging’ is in every airport across the ‘U’ K this morning. This is despite – indeed in contradiction of – the wholly different “Stay At Home” messages of the governments in Scotland, Wales and Norhtern Ireland. All of the airport signage greeting incoming international passengers are displaying the ‘Stay Alert/’Stay at home if possible’ etc. tropes of Johnson’s lethal ‘easing’ of the lockdown. And we are supposed to believe that Johnson, Hancock and Cummings really mean to set up effective quarantine? Even then there are zero indications that this – if/when it ever comes in – will have compulsory tests, let alone compulsory isolation, let alone the full 14 days recommended by the WHO.
If Johnson fancies he is going to have a brief ‘triumph’ – even that, I suspect, will be forstalled. The real policy still appears to be as cynical, brutal and, frankly, stupid as it has been from the start. And as Bonheoffer warned, “Against stupidity we are defenseless. Neither protests nor the use of force accomplish anything here; reasons fall on deaf ears; facts that contradict one’s prejudgment simply need not be believed ….. and when facts are irrefutable they are just pushed aside as inconsequential, as incidental.”
From the European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Latest risk assessment & guidance.
Really glad to see that on ‘back to work day’ we have a full Parliament with all members present & correct. (Not until June apparently) & good to see the Royal Family back to public duties as well.
“…What is the risk of resurgence of sustained community transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK in the coming weeks, as a consequence of phasing out ‘stay-at-home’ policies and adjusting community level physical distancing measures without appropriate systems and capacities in place?
The risk of resurgence of sustained community transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK is currently moderate if measures are phased out gradually and accompanied by appropriate monitoring systems and capacities, with the option to reintroduce measures if needed, and remains very high if measures are phased out without appropriate systems and capacities in place, with a likely rapid increase in population morbidity and mortality.
This assessment is based on the following factors:
The effect of testing strategies, healthcare capacities and environmental conditions has not been fully disentangled when evaluating the role played by the community and physical distancing measures implemented in different EU/EEA countries and the UK. However, the temporal relationship between application of such measures and changes in morbidity and mortality rates, and the results of modelling studies, suggest that it is very likely that those measures, and particularly the ‘stay-at-home’ policies, have played an important role in reducing transmission and, in some subnational areas, have led to a strong reduction in the rate of disease incidence and mortality. The available information from the first seroepidemiological studies indicates the population immunity is still low (in most cases <10%). Phasing out measures may cause a rapid resurgence of transmission unless:
measures are phased out after a clear indication that the spread of the disease has substantially decreased for a sustained period of time and health system capacities have fully recovered;
a robust surveillance strategy, extended testing capacities, and a robust framework for contact tracing are in place.
clear strategies are in place for adjusting community level physical distancing measures in a way that allows their effectiveness to be evaluated, taking into account local differences in transmission rates, and being ready to refine and re-implement measures based on the evolution of transmission patterns.
In the absence of a vaccine or an effective treatment and because of the still low population immunity level, rapid resurgence of sustained community transmission may occur, which can lead to very high population morbidity and mortality. This can be directly related to disruption of healthcare services, as happened in March 2020 in several EU/EEA countries and the UK, but also to the high mortality associated with outbreaks in LTCFs residents and in other populations with defined factors associated with elevated risk for severe COVID19, if these are not appropriately shielded. In summary, the impact could be very high, not only from a public health perspective, but also because COVID-19 outbreaks can cause huge economic and societal disruptions…"
I know what I'll be doing thanks.
What follows came from a Professor friend who is deeply involved with the virus:
“The best estimate of the infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.75%. Ie. The proportion of people who are infected that die is just under 1 in 100.
Assuming herd immunity kicks in at 70% of the population (~50M), this means the UK is only about 8/50 (16%) of our way to the end of the disease. Correspondingly, we should still expect 42/50 (84%) of the deaths still to come (absent new therapies or vaccines). If we assume 40,000 UK deaths, this corresponds to a further 250,000 deaths befor it is all over”
With respect to Mr Willets’ comment re: the gov’s “tactic” will be to say: it is you the population’s fault. I can see the tories trying to do it – not sure how well it will go down. Furthermore, the death toll is more like 60,000 pointing to close to 400,000 deaths before this is all over – if it ever is.
I think 250,000 more deaths a good outcome right now
I am afraid
The passengers in the picture appear to be behaving like responsible adults. They’re not getting in each others faces, all look young and healthy, and for all we know they did wash their hands in still soapy water when leaving home and will do again when they arrive at work if facilities allow. If Transport For London wants to make a set of rules to stop what’s happening in the pictures, I personally feel they should back off, or give everyone a free e-bike out of the Mayor’s PR budget as a substitute route to work.
And what do you do for a living Neil?
Did it require you to take the risk that those people did?
And have you had Covid 19, almost certainly caught on the tube, as I might well have done?
I really would not recommend it
Have you got a problem with the hand-washing advice? It’s the single biggest difference you can make to your chances of getting a non-significant viral load of this thing, yet you continually ignore it and the opportunity to promote it.
There was a February study this year which showed that hand washing in still soapy water if made compulsory at all international airports would have made a massive difference to slowing the spread of this virus.
And don’t claim it’s too late now, when you’ve just claimed that we are less than a fifth the way through this.
I really don’t think that’s what this blog is about
Indeed, sadly it is all too predictable. Quite a number not wearing masks. More here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/packed-tube-trains-prompt-union-anger-at-johnsons-back-to-work-message-coronavirus-lockdown And of course the government are blaming people for not being “sensible” (not entirely clear what sensible choices are available, if you are one of hundreds or thousands who need to get to work at a particular time else you might be sacked, because the government has encouraged employers to call their employees back in, and public transport is the only way to do it). We know the categories of worker that are already at higher risk, including security, construction, factory work, and transport.
Like my colleagues, I am lucky enough to be able to work from home (although the amount of paid work needing to be done has decreased substantially…). We do not anticipate returning to the office this year, and even when we do, those there will probably still be a need to remain physically much further apart than before (single use desks with partitions, not to mention single occupancy lifts, frequently sanitised lavatories, photocopies and printers, coffee machines, kitchens…).
My employer has always been supportive of home working at all levels, and for some businesses – auditors for example – always had a significant proportion of people out of the office anyway. There is a decent chance that remote working will become much more widespread, at last. I cancelled my annual season ticket a month ago and don’t expect I’ll need a new one before the new year, if then.
I saw that picture too and many others of people trying to get to work in UK. Here in Hong Kong, the beaches and trails have been packed for the last number of weekends, with not everyone wearing masks. We’ve all been terrified that this would herald another wave of infections, but it hasn’t happened yet and the best epidemioIogists in Hong Kong can’t tell us why. Maybe it’s just luck. I say this not to get the UK government off the hook for what looks like an avoidable tragedy that its policies have wrought, but that’s been the experience here. In any event, the government here has had a very strict ‘test, trace, isolate’ policy in place from early on.
The last may well be key
And we have nothing like that
It’s only fair to say that some epidemiologists think that there is no chance of wave 2 and this will all be over very soon….
If the devolved Govts of Scotland, Wales and NI do not follow, then it will show up in the figures in a few months time.
His hand will be forced to shelter from the storm – Jexit.
“I think it’s important to to put this on the table: this virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away”; Dr Mike Ryan, director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies programme (reported on Daily Mail Online this morning).
This is perhaps a reminder that ‘herd immunity’ is best if restricted to veterinary medicine, where economics plays a central, and perhaps often the primary role. What has always concerned me most of all about the ‘herd immunity’ hypothesis being applied to humans – far, far more than the epidemiological flaws as policy if in fact the virus mutates at a rate that nullifies both the effects of post-infection immunity or of a vaccine – is the fact that the intellectual framework which comes in the baggage of ‘herd immunity’ carries the priorities of economics insidiously, quietly, ‘portamento’ into primary place as a Government policy consideration (without even acknowledgement), when the lives of the public are at stake.
What is particularly insidious is that in defending the entitlement of economics to some consideration, through such tropes of argument as ‘herd immunity’, it quickly takes over the whole list of viable priorities under consideration, because the effects of economics can very glibly be universalised; and thus comes to dictate the framing of the evidence.
Fundamental human values cannot be reduced to economics, or be allowed to do so by stealth.
Quite so…