For how much longer can Scotland stay in the Union?

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Johnson spoke last night.

By universal consent, his speech was bad.

It was confusing.

Amongst the waffle, it was almost impossible to discern what he was actually saying.

When anything could be worked out it was obvious that it was technically incompetent.

And what he never made clear was that he was only speaking for England. The rules for Scotland, Wakes and Nothern Ireland are created by their governments. But Johnson never said so. And that was not just grossly incompetent. And rude. And unconstitutional. It was inept as well.

Ben Wray has addressed this well on Source Direct this morning, saying:

The fissures between devolved administrations and No 10 are now a serious crisis of the UK state. Since the public health response clearly takes precedence and is now led from Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, the reserved parts of government which remain in lockstep with Whitehall are now a major liability for the Scottish, Welsh and NI governments. The most critical risk is the centralised control of the furlough scheme, because if Chancellor Rishi Sunak decides to begin winding down the payment of wages for 6.8 million UK workers (370,000 in Scotland), that de facto brings the lockdown to an end, as the hand of millions of workers are forced (if they have a job to return to at all). One report has stated that Sunak will move as early as Tuesday to begin the process of ending the furlough scheme. The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon must demand a devolved administration veto on any changes to the furlough scheme if the credibility of the Scottish lockdown is to be maintained.

Johnson may not care about that credibility. The people of Scotland, Wales and Northern  Ireland do.

Johnson can make few errors of judgement as bad as the one he made in broadcasting as he did last night and survive, most especially when the Tories don't like what he had to say as they want to end lockdown now, believing that their core supporters will be safe, come what may, as statistically may well be true.

The chance that Johnson will make the end of this year as PM look increasingly unlikely to me.

The chance that Independence in Scotland will be very much back on the agenda is at least as high.

I may be wrong, but last night helped both causes.

They are not unrelated. And I suspect no Tory could reverse the momentum in Scotland if Johnson makes another blunder of this scale.