I would like to think that most people realise that Priti Patel's comments, made yesterday, suggesting that British business replace those people from the EU who will no longer be allowed to work in the UK with either robots or people recruited from amongst the eight million ‘economically inactive' resident population of the country were, to be polite, economically illiterate. Thankfully the media was anxious to point this out, from the BBC onwards.
To consider the economics for a moment, of those 8 million a significant number are students. Others are sick. Some are retired. There are non-working parents in that number. And yes, there are also some unemployed.
But the government has until very recently been only too keen to trumpet the fact that we now have supposedly record employment rates in the UK. But now, apparently, that hides the significant involuntary unemployment of 3 million or so people required to replace those from Europe. Either that's true, or the advance of robotics and AI in the next few months is going to be at a pace never before witnessed.
Now, it so happens that I do think that there is considerable underemployment in the UK economy. And I happen to think small numbers of the jobs that are currently taken by EU residents will be taken by UK residents if those from the EU, who are probably better qualified to do them, are not available. That is, of course, inevitable. But that will not make good the substantial shortfall that will occur. The employers saying so are not making this up.
So let's accept that Patel talked nonsense. And let's instead speculate what this, and so much else of the Brexit rhetoric, means.
This policy has a range of potential outcomes. Presuming the lost jobs are not filled as the policy begins to impact, as surely it will, then there will be significant short staffing in agriculture, food processing, catering, tourist industries, the NHS, care facilities, building and other sectors. These sectors will not be able to deliver their services. The knock on effect will not being significant increases in wages when there isn't capacity to either reduce margins or increase prices significantly; the consequence will be corporate failures. Businesses facing inevitable losses will close before that point is reached. And the job losses will then reach the sectors of the economy traditionally staffed by UK domiciled staff.
Of course, this shrinking of the economy might create a downward overall pressure on wages and a pool of UK workers willing to take work at any rate. But this is hardly about levelling up the economy. Dumbing down is the reality. That is not going to go down well with those who were told to believe a new wave of well being as a result of this policy.
Alternatively, those businesses facing failure will make enough noise and the policy will be changed. That again is not going to go down well with those who believed that migration had to be controlled.
In this sense this policy is simply a microcosm for the whole of the Tory Brexit strategy. What is being said now appears to be economically and politically incoherent. It is economically incoherent because it will leave us significantly worse off. It is politically incoherent because in any normal situation the policy will fail precisely because it cannot deliver.
So the question is, are we in a normal situation where the usual rules apply? My fear is that we are not.
It's not normal for politicians to lie the extent that has become commonplace.
Or for Cabinet members to parrot responses to a Prime Minister.
It is not normal for the conventions that underpin our democracy to be subject to the attack that they now are.
It is not normal for there to be such attempts as are being made to control the media.
It is not normal for dissent to be so ruthlessly suppressed in the way the prime minister is doing.
It is not normal for a non-elected and unaccountable person to have the power Dominic Cummings now has.
Nothing is normal. And that extends to the willingness of the government to use shameless propaganda and lies to make its case. Those in power did that with £350 million on the side of a bus. They will do that again. And they may use such methods to persuade people that there is a new normal where they must suffer for the greater cause, and that it is right to do so. History has shown governments can create the mythology to do that.
Priti Patel's commentary makes no sense. At least not against the criteria we are used to. But in a world of controlled mythology it will be the fault of the EU, foreign workers themselves and foreign owned big businesses who refuse to employ domiciled people (even when they do not apply to work) for the failure of this policy. They will be the ‘others' who will be denying the UK the chance to be the low-income migrant state it wants to be. The excuses are already, I suspect, lined up.
Patel's arguments are crazy. Unless you've got what Priti Patel has in mind, of course.
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I believe that the immigration rules developed by the EU were very effective and offered all that Brexiteers and Tories wanted. But they were never used, and that morphed into free movement and thus a target for Brexiteers.
Unbelievable!
But that would have required identity cards.
The right-wing of the Tory party would not accept that …
Zombie businesses that can’t survive while paying a genuine living wage should go under. In an essential sector such as care the state must step in. In areas such as hospitality and tourism a more efficient market will form. Wages and conditions will never improve in those sectors while companies can use agencies to directly recruit from low wage countries.
The CEO of a Scottish Care business was on the news complaining that since average pay in his sector is £17k pa they won’t be able to recruit migrants. It is absolutely disgusting that a socially vital sector pays poverty wages yet he was not challenged on this.
There are no jobs that British people won’t do. There are millions of British people including myself who work in very difficult conditions for low wages. There is however a limit to employment conditions that British people will accept for poverty wages and sectors that are struggling to recruit will have to improve conditions and/or wages.
I am all in favour of increasing wages
I argue for a living wage and support a job guarantee
But you are not answering the question as to how 3 million people who will disappear from the productive economy will be replaced
Firstly people won’t disappear as a large proportion of EU workers have a right to remain and the number of non EU immigrants is also increasing despite a decade of reactionary Home Office policy. So it will be gradual rather than an immediate substitution of 3 million people.
What will hopefully happen is that workers will shift to essential productive industries and unproductive areas of the economy which are only sustainable due to poverty wages disappear.
I don’t accept that large sectors of the essential economy are unviable without poverty wages. This is ‘There Is No Alternative’ dogma peddled by employers who profit hugely from the status quo.
Berry pickers are often cited as an issue but how much would the retail price of berries have to increase to attract a British work force? A higher wage economy will mean many societal changes but any break from current norms elicits screams of despair from the public even if the affects are mainly felt by exploitative employers. As someone who is a promoting a transformative economic policy this a phenomena that you will have to battle against so it’s sad to see you submit to it here.
You’re wrong
They will disappear
People do not stay in hostile environments
And if you think food, care, the NHS and building are not necessary parts of the economy then you reveal your own inability to appreciate what is
I am sorry, but either raise your game or please don’t call again
SB, berry pickers are often cited because it is seasonal work – it’s not about the rate of pay. Because the way taxes work in the uk, any second job you have will be fully taxed. So in the past people would go berry picking for their holidays, or some break from work, and effectively get cash in hand, because you weren’t paid hourly (I dunno how the tax used to work really, but that’s what I was told), same with tattie picking in the past (machine done now) – our October holidays from school (this is in the 70s) were called the tattie holidays and lasted two weeks so that everyone would be out in the fields during harvest time, mothers and their kids and grannies mostly. But you can’t do that now, it’s not worth your while & with the reduction in the travelling folk population too, it’s that you can’t get a guaranteed workforce at the right time – that’s the main criteria – guaranteed. So the berry growers plan a year in advance with an agency, usually from countries with a strong agricultural economy so still have a lot of seasonal work, and get a team over for the duration & everyone is happy.
It’s the draconian UK rules that prevent people here from doing the seasonal work, not the low wages, or not wholly anyway – who is going to fill out endless tax forms for a couple of weeks of getting pennies? Who is going to take time off work, or able to at the right time, to do it these days? Who is going to risk coming off the dole in case you have to wait 6 weeks to get back on it? The UK government has made it very difficult for people to do this type of seasonal work, unless you are already in uncertain employment, and then you are unlikely to be able to guarantee you can work the exact times needed.
Here’s what I think will happen in care.
Many businesses will face the prospect of being seriously understaffed. Most care businesses. Some lucky few will be ok, especially in areas where there has been little foreign immigration and most such workers are already native. (Such as where I am in rural Scotland).
Faced with not being able to deliver local authority contracts the care businesses mainly working for councils will just stop dead. There will be a widespread collapse in delivery of statutory local authority care services. But these have already been collapsing for the last ten years and no one’s made much of a fuss. Indeed the famous figure of 120,000 austerity related deaths is mostly care failures and this is discussed almost nowhere. There’s no I, Daniel Blake for someone who went into care and no one checked if they took their meds. It is remarkably even less sexy that social security failures.
Meanwhile some entrepreneurial private care homes will bump up wages and aggressively recruit care workers. They may even pay over the £25k threshhold to get immigrants under the new points based system. (Note this new system makes no allowance for London prices nor for hours worked). These costs will be passed on to customers. Councils will say no – at first – many private individuals will say yes, spending their kids’ inheritance. Most of us would rather be cared for than die rich. There’s actually a great untapped wealth here as old people are pretty rich and well aware that they can’t take it with them.
Across the board failures of public care provision is likely to see the government propose some solution. Perhaps along the lines of Theresa May’s notorious “dementia tax” if not so crass. Because it’s a Conservative government this will encourage the private sector, perhaps NI-linked Care Insurance.
This will be a complex and profound change that will generate winners and losers. Many elderly people will die from care failures – this will be a major shock to a sector which according to the BMJ has already caused most of the 120,000 excess deaths.
One winner might be the care profession itself. It could become a well paid high status job that many youngsters aspire to.
Did you hear this insightful exchange with Nick Ferrari? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_Jk5Hm2ndw
I did….
Because she was talking so fast I missed a point she seemed to me to make about immigrants not getting welfare (social security benefits ?) for five years. Did I mishear this ? About 4mins 50seconds into the conversation. What does this mean ?
I may listen again…..
For many years, last 2 consecutive years NI payments are required to receive dole money (which lasts 3 months). This was going to be increased to 5 consecutive years many years ago. Exemptions for full-time study. I’ve been caught twice. Obviously, savings above about £2k disqualifies income support. You have to be pretty much destitute to qualify for benefits. And job centres have been useless for finding work for many years.
I don’t think immigrants receive any benefits under current system (see above).
Quite so…
So how would you decide which low pay immigrants should be admitted to the country as immigrants?
Under FoM, EEA workers of all levels were given preferential treatment over workers from the rest of the world for no good reason other than nationality. A Bulgarian has preferred status to a Mexican, a Greek has preferred status to a Malaysian.
Treating people differently according to this irrelevant criterion seems inherently unfair.
If a Pole and a Sri Lankan are to be on an equal footing (whether for high or low paid work), what should the rules look like?
You miss the whole point of the discussion
Inst. For Gov finds UK Visa charges to be sky high: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/20/uk-visa-fees-deter-nhs-staff-scientists
What was the problem this will solve?
Jus to put the remaining migrants off….
One Twitter user found an apt comparison. https://twitter.com/GDRNorminton/status/1230121522083307521
Very good
I wonder how many points Ms Patel’s parents would have scored if her system of immigration control had been operating when they came to the UK.
I doubt whether my Italian grandparents would have scraped together sufficient points. They would not have got in, and their son, my dad, would not then have met my English/Scottish mum. So I would not have come into existence. And I wonder how many other British citizens of the UK would not exist for the same reason, or be raised in another country. Dominic Raab? Daniel Kawczynski? Andrew Sabisky? Many hundreds of thousands I should imagine.
I doubt mt forebears would have got it, excepting Ireland was a colony at the time
The old saying that they (HMG) could not organize a piss up in a brewery is entirely appropriate as all the breweries will close.
The silver lining is that the excesses of the moment build up the reaction to them.
The times we live in are dominated by the end of the post-war consensus. After the war there was a very strong sense of social solidarity, disdain for profiteers, and highly principled positions against states killing, torturing or suppressing free speech.
Clearly over time these have eroded as the general mood has swung away from that pinnacle. We may be outraged that Tony Blair circumvented our laws against torture by rendering prisoners to Guantanamo or Libya but the majority British view is that it’s probably ok to torture Al Qaeda prisoners anyway. Those 1940s sensibilities just don’t dominate any more.
If views have swung away from that moral, principled, high point then excesses and failures of the nihilstic and cynical values of today will bring them back. There will be a reaction against being ruled by amoral racist liars.
It’s a shame that we have to live through this, for many individuals it will be a life-shattering disaster, but for society as a whole I really believe we will turn the corner and the general consensus will swing away from admiring the Trumps and the Farages.
Mind you, it might require a generation to die off first.
New Zealand runs a very successful Seasonal Workers Scheme and has done so for many years.
Workers fly in for several months and are housed by the employer and return home after the season.
They never become residents.
So?
That is not what we are discussing
The article is right, this new immigration policy without a shadow of a doubt risks disaster for the UK. Under this govt the UK is having its soul ripped out & the govt demonstrates more & more, ever day, how uncaring it is for the bulk of its own citizens & that it has no regard for foreigners at all unless they have money. Personally, I doubt that the UK can survive nearly five more years of this govt…there could well be riots & social & economic collapse. The losers in our society will become enraged against those they will perceive as having caused their misery. This govt is splitting the UK asunder. If the social care sector suffers significant stress & many elderly people die as result, how long will it be before their families want to see those responsible for the policies that brought this about held responsible for them? Newly qualified doctors have to swear the hippocratic oath, & are taught “first of all, do no harm”…The last three governments have been sworn to nothing except a destructive far right neo con ultra capitalist ideology, & have done immense harm. This immigration policy is likely to have grave consequences for many UK citizens living in the EU…many of them will end up having to up sticks & return to the UK…there could be a new wave of a million or so migrants that the UK govt will not be able to stop, because they’ll be BRITISH!…
The “Other” targeted by this government, as being unwelcome, don’t just live in foreign parts, they already live among us and have done for hundreds of years. Where will it end? https://www.counterfire.org/articles/opinion/20853-the-government-s-attacks-on-gypsies-roma-and-travellers-are-an-attack-on-us-all
I wish I knew
We are gonna have to have one world, equally shared..