Will Boris Johnson go the country (as it now is) this autumn? My answer is yes for three reasons.
First, this will distract from preparation for no deal.
Second, if he wins he can blame the country for choosing no deal, and he likes blame shifting.
Third, he thinks he can win. The Tories have a bounce right now.
Of these three the second will be the most important to him. Denying responsibility is his goal.
Will he win? That’s harder to predict. But I fear he will.
Corbyn is looking tired and out of ideas on Europe and green issues, where he can’t even refer to a Green New Deal, unlike everyone else, and so seems far from the action.
This leaves the opposition divided in two key areas when it needs to be united.
And third, the momentum is simply with Johnson right now.
Such a win will be a disaster, of course. For the economy, environment, every minority, those on low incomes, international relations, development, inequality, tax justice and so much more. And the defence will be people voted for it.
But what is the real reason why he will go for an election? Because he knows Gordon Brown always regretted not doing so. That’s why. When it comes down to it everything will be ego. And he just wants the win.