I know all the issues with opinion polls. But people still do them. And they're not always that far out. At least, big differences tend to reveal big truths. And as Corbyn continues to prevaricate quite hopelessly on Brexit it's quite interesting to note the alternatives that two opinion polls show. The first is opinion poll data is Labour committed to being a Remain party:
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1130900865995485184
Election Maps UK†@ElectionMapsUK
European Election Voting Intention IF Labour 'Became Pro Remain and Promised an in/out 2nd Referendum':
LAB: 36% (+12)
BXP: 30% (-2)
CON: 11% (=)
LDM: 9% (-6)
NAT: 4% (=)
CHUK: 3% (-1)
UKIP: 3% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-4)
Via @ComRes, 17 May. Changes w/ Regular poll.
11:19 AM - 21 May 2019
And then there are opinion polls assuming Labour continues as it is - a party of indecision and prevarication:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1134207549249654786
Britain Electsâ€@britainelects
Westminster voting intention:
LDem: 24% (+6)
Brex: 22% (+4)
Con: 19% (-5)
Lab: 19% (-5)
Grn: 8% (+2)
via @YouGov Chgs. w/ 17 May
2:18 PM - 30 May 2019
That's a big enough difference to notice.
How about a LibDem/SNP coalition, anyone?
Proportional representation, Remain and an Independence Referendum, here we come.
Maybe Corbyn should keep prevaricating.
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As much as I want it, as with house of lords reform, I can’t see PR happening.
I know
But it’s good to dream for 5 minutes
On the other hand, Helen, do you remember when Screaming Lord Such stood for Parliament (jokingly if I recall) on a manifesto of ‘pubs open all day’.
Unexpected things do come to pass sometimes.
You wrote this yesterday in the early afternoon, I note.
By then, and even more so by the evening, we’d heard several variations on the theme of a ref with or without remain, a ref or no ref….While he’s playing with his most faithful electorate’s nerves, Labour is quickly losing the floating voters forever. This sort of chaos, as seemingly tolerated by most of the shadow cabinet, will do long-term damage.
Many of his faithful supporters are meanwhile calling Remainers traitors…sounds familiar? Labour under Corbyn&Milne is not a home for those of us who like democratic debate, apparently.
The farce is not over yet. On both sides of the political circus.
I agree
His performance yesterday was bad, even by his own very low standards
Richard – It looks like Jeremy Corbyn may be intent on granting your ‘wish’.
Corbyn’s prevarication continues apace.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/30/soft-brexit-corbyn-labour-second-referendum-some-way-off-backs
“Corbyn backs soft Brexit and says second referendum ‘some way off’ ”
“He [Corbyn] said: “We don’t back a rerun of 2016. That happened. That is gone. What I do say is that if parliament comes to an agreement, then it’s reasonable, and if parliament wishes it, there should be a public vote on it but that is some way off.””
I try not to despair at Corbyn’s apparent ineptitude.
I try…
Labour has been correct to try and respect the views of both remainers and leavers. It is also right to strongly oppose a No Deal. It should have perhaps been less hostile to the Withdrawal Agreement, which wasn’t a ‘ deal’ rather the starting point for negotiating one. It may now be best for it to support the idea of a second referendum, with 3 options on the ballot.
1) leaving with no deal
2) remain
3) supporting the Withdrawal Agreement to allow a long term deal to be negotiated
Voters could be given the opportunity to express two preferences. Labour could endorse both 2 and 3 as viable, allowing MPs and members to argue in favour of either.
The above might be a manifesto position for a General Election which is surely coming soon, a manifesto which should also include a commitment to a Green New Deal, funded on the basis of an acceptance of the principles of MMT, which you have so coherently articulated. There would also need to be a commitment to providing improved funding for public services and ( ideally) a commitment to seriously consider electoral reform to help mend our ‘ broken politics’
Pretending that anything buit Remain helps the people of this country is a failure by Labour
leave is a Tory plan
Why do they endorse it and so always play to the Tory agenda?
Nothing about Labour’s policy makes sense
I told them that in March 2016 and I have never regretted doing so
as far as I can see there has been no significant change in sentiment since the referendum other than an increasing loss of confidence by the electorate in Westminsters ability to lead.
the EU election results seem to show an increased loss in confidence in the main parties, Lab/Con, but a very similar underlying sentiment about Brexit,
the referendum result was pretty much 50/50, in my book the message was ‘not sure’ or ‘don’t know’
the subtext of that message was a grumbling discontent with the status quo and BAU
the three options seem to be: Leave no deal (Hard Brexit)
Leave with deal (BINO)
Remain
Leave no deal is a highly traumatic proposition because the country has spent 40 years configuring it’s arrangements to suit membership of the EU,
a withdrawal into isolation along the Japanese historical model is unrealistic because Britain is far from self sufficient in food, energy and manufactured goods and would require a mobilisation of domestic resources on the scale of Britain after Dunkirk with rationing and convoys supplying us from the colonies,
a no deal leave that wasn’t isolationist would require the immediate cobbling together of a duplication of all the agreements that constitute our current membership of the EU,
Leave with deal (BINO) still completely overlooks the fact that Scotland is broadly Remain and the inconvenient Northern Irish border,
Remain, although the simplest and most pragmatic solution to the current stalemate, offers absolutely no change to the status quo and BAU,
surely this was the driver of the discontent that led to the 50/50 referendum result?
since the 1970’s when it was becoming apparent that western civilisation was heading for an environmental crisis coupled with the exhaustion of easily accessable fossil energy resources pretty much nothing has been done about it,
since the 1980’s and the de-industrialisation of Britain much has been said about increasing regional inequality and the need to rebalance the British economy but pretty much nothing has been done about it,
since 2008 much has been said about the crisis of modern capitalism and the need to re-configure finance and banking to represent reality but pretty much nothing has been done about it,
since 2015 nothing has been done to alleviate the stagnation of the British economy to make remaining more palatable and nothing has been done to reconfigure Britain to prepare for the shock of leaving,
a viable Leave with deal (BINO) would be plausable if one could accept the neccessity of Scottish Independence and the re-unification of Ireland but this has remained ‘unthinkable’ and nothing has been done about it,
to me, Corbyn seems to be saying, no deal is unacceptable, an acceptable deal is pretty much BINO and if you can’t accept that we’re better off forgetting the whole thing,
LibDems are saying let’s just carry on just as we were before,
the Greens are saying revoke, remain, reform and for gods sake lets address climate change,
the Brexit Party is saying lets crash out and then sit back and let someone else sort out the mess,
the Conservative Party is saying ‘Vote Me’
PR would probably help UK politics untangle itself but what chance is there of any action on that front?
at this point in time, in the absence of bold leadership with a clear and unifying vision of of the future, I think we’re broadly fucked.
civilisational collapse isn’t an event, it’s a process and we’re within the process now.
I don’t think the reason for the vote had anything at all to do with the EU – less than 10% of people named it as a concern before 2015
It rejected the paralysis of Westminster, which continues
The problem is not EU constraint
It is Westminster inability or unwillingness to act on things that matter – on both sides
Hi Richard,
I think you are comparing too different datasets to prove anything meaningful. Those polls are by different companies at different times, for different elections and one is asking a hypothetical question.
You may be right that backing remain would, or perhaps now would have, given Labour a poll boost but the data you present can’t reliably demonstrate that is the case.
Personally I think Corbyn’s cliche are worried about losing their loyal working class vote for a boost from middle class liberals that may prove temporary.
If you’re looking for a political earthquake this seat calculation based off the latest YouGove figures is hard to beat.
https://flavible.com/politics/map/polls.php?sid=2050
This poll seems to show a true four way split in England. If any one of those four can get into the 30s while their opponents remain split it is possibly enough for a majority.
I accept all that you say
The point survives
The logic of this analysis implies in hindsight, that Labour would have done even better at the snap GE in 2017 if their manifesto had refused to honour the referendum and guaranteed no brexit !?
Is that at all believable?
Until there is a election called, there are no election manifestos.
The mean idea that JC determines party policy single handed, is nonsense. Why do people think that we have an American style presidential executive? Is it because commentators moan on about him? The constant refrain to call upon one person, in the leaders seat, to decide policy is wrong headed. It has led us from Thatcher to Blair to Cameron/Clegg and their political choice of Austerity, that set the minds of brexit voters.
Thats Clegg, as in LibDems, who threw the chance of PR, abolishing student fees and halting the privatisation of the Royal Mail and with it destroyed their party, thus reducing the 3 major parties to two in England.
That’s what happens when demagogue powers are vested to the ‘leader’. And worse.
The logic of this is for now, not 2017
That was a different time
Went to hear Larry Elliott** the other evening addressing the local Labour Party (no, I’ve not joined – it was open to outsiders). Having given a good historical overview as to how we got to into this mess, he was rather sympathetic to Corbyn on the basis that he clearly finds himself between a rock and a hard place and genuinely wants to unite rather than divide, believing it’s the best strategy for winning a GE. I take your view that, irrespective of any personal integrity, he’s an incompetent leader and incapable of dealing with the complexity of this situation.
However, on a general note, maybe we should take a longer, more positive view of the current débâcle. The shit-storm caused by Farrage has sent the country into turmoil. Surely that’s a good thing if it pushes people and politicians alike to rethink their beliefs, ideologies, preferences or whatever. Similarly it is drawing people into the political debate who had previously given it a wide berth or simply not been interested. It’s certainly highlighting the plurality of the constituent make-up of the country. While were not going to get PR anytime soon, the default voting pattern for the 2 main parties can never be the same again.
The nation is going through a troubled hiatus that I believe will continue for at least another 5 years, leading to more uncertainty, division and instability that no one political party is capable of resolving. But, as the Countess said to Lord Grantham in Downton Abbey: ‘Il faut reculer pour mieux sauter’ 🙂 Hence if we end up with a more progressive politics once the dust has settled then Brexit could be a well-disguised blessing. Of course the immediate result might not be what we personally dream for but at least it opens up space that has hitherto been closed off for centuries. It’s a true Gramscian moment.
** PS. When you next have any contact with him please tell him in future not to suggest MMT is a theory that might be ‘applied’ to the GND. I hope it was just a momentary lapsus linguae. Thanks 🙂
Thanks
And Larry and I are not always on a wavelength…
What appears as prevarication is simply his ineffectual effort to articulate his long-standing adherence to Tony Benn’s opposition to the European Community (and then Union) in a world that has changed enormously and to conceal the extent to which he is trapped by the 4 Ms and and some close parliamentary and union comrades.
I would love to see what opinion polls Corbyn is looking at, I really would.
Is it a question of Labour MPs in Leave areas wanting to keep their their jobs for the job’s sake?
Corbyn is not going to form some sort of socialist archipelago in the UK on the basis of the Tories collapsing and the UK leaving the EU.
I was listening to Vernon Bogdanor on the radio tonight and he reckoned that as things stand the FPTP divisions may well be ancient history now and all we might keep getting is hung parliaments in the future. I must say that I got what he was saying.
A female commentator ( I apologise for forgetting her name) warned however that the Tories were choosing another leader which may lever in a culture of personality factor and the whole thing could change again.
Interesting interregnum indeed!
Indeed
Good blog.
There are some very good points made here, with at last some kind of understanding that we really are at the Gramsci moment.
The status quo was not acceptable for a significant part of the country, and like it or lump it, Brexit was the opportunity to say enough is enough ( Jonathon Pie nailed it). I am am not young and I can remember the 1979 sea change in our society, and this particular moment has the same heady feel, hopefully with a more inclusive philosophical outcome.
Both John D and Dungroanin look to the positive side, which surely is that – now the moment of change has arrived, that we should grasp this rare opportunity to fill the void with a new future – Gramsci’s waiting for a new era to be born.
Its not that there is a lack of positive ideas, or policies to transform our pitifully unequal society, indeed Labours last manifesto was the most promising that I have seen for 40 years, and the US Democrats have at last a clutch of socialist protagonists. We also have new a economic thinking emerging, with the valuing the the commons, MMT and social value. Also there is the retreat of neoliberalism, and the hard fought fight for acceptance of climate change. These are big, big changes.
‘Seize the day’.
Surely we have all the ideas we need, lets not get stuck on the polarity and sterility of Brexit, surely we must look beyond that.
How can we come together, and forge a new era? Progressives have so much in common, and Brexit is being used to ensure we are divided.
Thanks for the blog. Special thanks for the Charles Adams bit from Progressive Pulse. LOL
Regards Paul
Thanks Paul
I agree with you: this may be a 1979 moment
All I would say in relation to Gramsci and the the Marxist aspiration for revolution or change is that no one really said what sort of revolution or change would come.
It seems to me that the only revolution I have seen is in the rise of the Right and its ability to utilise new technology to steal a march on the Left. People are undoubtedly angry but the Right /Far right have manipulated that sentiment far more effectively than the Left.
The Right wing orientation of the modern Tory party has certainly helped this ‘revolution’ or awakening but the biggest engine of the growth of the Right seems to come from outside of the ruling architecture which marks it to me as pretty revolutionary in flavour in many aspects. There has been and continues to be a Right wing rising.
So surely, now is the time for the Left to make friends, renew alliances, invoke oaths they have sworn etc., and work together to offer an alternative vision?
Surely that would be a sensible thing to do given the circumstances?
Yes
Live in hope
Victory will go to the side that can unify, especially under our FPTP system. The UK is probably marginally progressive in outlook, perhaps 55% across Lab, LDEM, SNP, PC, GRN, SF, SDLP, ALL, CHUK etc. vs. 45% for Con, BRX, DUP, UUP, UKIP etc. Historically the greater division on the progressive side has handed more power to the conservatives.
Try whatever scenario you think even remotely likely here:
https://www.flavible.com/politics/map/user_predictions.php?
It’s quite obvious that the unprecedented division in the conservatives camp is a gift to progressives that we seem determined to throw away in petty factionalism. Surely anyone who thinks of themselves as remotely socialist should understand this.
The left is great at wasting a crisis on the right
Should tory & labour polling remain as it is (or worse) for the next few months is it likely that PR suddenly comes onto the agenda as a means of self preservation?
Yes…