This commentary comes from Sean Danaher on Progressive Pulse (with very slight changes to make it free-standing) and I thought well worth sharing given how little attention Northern Ireland gets in the rest of the UK. The headline is by me:
The final local election results for Northern Ireland last week were as follows: (source).
The Northern Ireland parties are generally different to Britain, consisting of Unionist parties, Nationalist parties and Cross-Community parties. Because PR is used in NI elections, apart from the Westminster ones, there is a wider range of parties. UKIP is the only party that stands in both NI and Britain, though the Irish Green party is very closely aligned policy-wise with its British counterparts.
The Unionist parties are the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) and UKIP. They are pro-Brexit and anti-backstop.
People before Profit is a Nationalist pro-backstop party, but is anti-EU in the Lexit sense.
The main Nationalist parties, Sinn Féin (SF) and the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) are Remain and pro-backstop. Aontú is also a remain pro-backstop party (but with very traditional anti-abortion etc. Catholic values). People Before Profit (PBP) s a left-wing anti-neoliberal party, with roots in the Socialist Workers Party and is an all-island party, more internationalist than nationalist, but for the purposes of this analysis is considered a Nationalist party.
The cross-community parties are Alliance, the Greens and Labour Alternative and are very pro-remain and pro-backstop. Alliance have policies very similar to the Lib Dems. Labour Alternative is a Socialist party.
The Unionist parties lost 32 seats: DUP 8, UUP 13, TUV 7, PUP 1 and UKIP 3. They had a bad night (and a very bad night for the UUP and TUV). There was little change in the Nationalist parties, losing one seat overall with the SDLP losing 7 seats but the PBP gaining 5 and Aintú 1. The big winner was the Alliance Party gaining 21 seats and the Greens doubling their seats from 4 to 8.
Again people vote on a range of issues, but the swing was largely from the Unionist parties to Alliance. Alliance is cross-community and hence have the ability to mop up votes from both sides. The UUP, which tends to represent more middle class and centrist Unionists had the greatest losses. Similarly, the SDLP, the more middle-class centrist party on the Nationalist side, lost seats.
The backstop is very popular with the business and agribusiness communities in Northern Ireland, which by its nature has voters from both communities.
The obvious conclusion is that the shift to Alliance is largely from pro-backstop Unionist voters.
Even though the DUP lost seats, its vote was marginally up. This was due to the ability to get voters out in their heartland communities. The hardline anti-backstop stance plays well with many Loyalists as it is seen as a commitment to preserving the Union.
This is good news for Alliance and increases the possibility of them winning the third seat in the European Parliament elections, which currently is held by the UUP. The other contender for the third seat is the SDLP and they had a bad night. Momentum will be on Alliance's side.
Overall as this chart shows, the results reveal that even though the Unionists are the largest block, they no longer form an absolute majority. This is based on seats won rather than the total vote. This has significance for a forthcoming “border poll.” The outcome could well depend on the Cross Community vote.
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Yes, indeed. But more importantly a good outcome for “generation neither”. The DUP and the Tories like to pretend that NI is as British as Finchley. It isn’t and it never will be, and the zero-sum, scorched-earth attitude so clearly expressed by the DUP’s Nelson McCausland, who said he didn’t care what happened as long as NI left the EU, has been exposed as something rather easier for him to live with than his electorate.
The DUP didn’t even discuss the economic impact on NI before deciding to support Brexit and before colluding in using NI’s secrecy provisions around political donations to spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on pro-Brexit propaganda in London. They thought the mighty UK could stick it to the EU and the hated Good Friday Agreement, which they opposed tooth and nail, would be a casualty, and with it any prospect, ever, of Irish unity; that the Irish could be dictated to over the border that David Davis described as an “internal matter for the UK”
The fly in the ointment was reality, in so many ways:
The better and more competent response by Ireland to the challenge of Brexit, at every level — diplomatically, politically, logistically, commercially etc
The ACTUAL complexities to which simple solutions do not exist (see Tony Connelly’s article on the implications of No Deal for the NI border for some insight into a FEW of the realities https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/0330/1039471-brexit-no-deal-tony-connelly/, and this is illustrative, also of the different calibre of reporting by Irish and UK journalists, not comprehensive).
They completely misread the EU’s interest in standing behind a member state, and also that of the US whose influence was so important in securing the Good Friday Agreement and where Irish influence is very significant, as some of the ERG discovered when they had a bruising encounter with Nancy Pelosi (they were told in no uncertain terms there would be no US trade deal in the event of any kind of hard border in Ireland).
And most of all they misread their own voters willingness to put their standard of living (already far, far behind that of the rest of Ireland) on a bonfire and sacrifice it for the sake of an identity that is based on hereditary hostility and antipathy to everything Irish, and at a time when growing numbers find the prospect of Irish reunification anything but a threat to their prosperity and European identity.
They have also misread the English nationalist voter’s attachment to NI (including that of some ERG members who have professed loyalty but have already shown their willingness to sell them out) and the resentment they are storing up at their blocking Brexit.
In short, they are doing more damage to the “precious union” than the IRA ever did. As political own goals go it must be one of the greatest in history. If they support Brexit it will simply accelerate Irish reunification instead of it being moot, and not just that, the break-up of the UK (which is probably inevitable now; if only one could say the same for peace in NI).
The good news is the sign of very welcome change in NI, of a move away from the toxic duopoly, one that may grow if it looks viable, and I think it does. It couldn’t have happened without the DUP’s miscalculations and delusions.
Thanks. Appreciated
Thanks Sam
it might be worth cutting and pasting your response into the Progressive Pulse article as it may spark some interesting discussion and though we share a number of readers there may be some useful comment.
I had a long discussion a few days ago with a lifelong friend who is now a professor in the DCU Business School. He has never lived the the UK but spent some years in the US as head of Telecom Eireann – the Irish equivalent of BT. He was quite worried about a United Ireland as he thought Ireland was totally unprepared and that it would need two decades to be ready.
He said he didn’t know any Unionists and found them impossible to understand. To be fair I have only know a few Unionists well and only after moving to England.
All logic dictates that the Unionists should support the backstop. It makes no change to the constitutional status of NI which is governed by the Good Friday Agreement (GFA).
When a border poll comes Unions will vote to stay in the Union (by definition) but Nationalists and Neutrals only if staying in the Union is not significantly worse than joining a United Ireland. Nationalists and neutrals need to feel valued and not be treated as second class citizens. Nationalists and neutrals are very strong supporters of the backstop. The demographics are such that Unionists will be in an ever decreasing minority. I think even now there are more Catholics than Protestants in NI (I feel a blog coming on) but many Catholics are school age children (and younger) so can not yet vote.
I travel to NI regularly and parts of it are very grim – way behind the South. Ireland has gone through a transformation over the past 25 years and is way ahead of NI on almost every metric. The UN HDI – a good individual metric for example places Ireland in 4th place, the UK as a whole in 14th place but regional inequality puts NI much lower – somewhere between 30th to 50th place on some analyses.
To go back to how Unionists think, the attachment to the Union is nothing to do with logic, all to do with emotion. To me this is totally irrational, but runs very deep – almost hard wired. It is the same powerful emotional pull that will cause people to vote for the Brexit Party. To me voting for the Brexit party is absolutely insane, but horrifically opinion polls put them as high as 30%. There is a dream of a perfect past where Britain was rich and all powerful and didn’t have to make messy compromises with foreigners. There is an appeal to patriotic duty – as if somehow being anti-EU is patriotic. There is rightly a feeling that things are very wrong in the UK (caused largely by austerity and inequality) but blame is put on the EU and immigration.
In makes more sense in terms of Unionists, NI was effectively allowed to become an apartheid state where being Protestant gave you immense privileges. The ones I know well – a former Head of Northumbria Physics and a Computing Prof in Bristol (West of England) were obviously very bright but had the Union hardwired into their brains.
There is also in NI a totally begrudging zero sum gain mentality. If the Nationalists like it it must be bad for us.
In the Unionist brain the backstop is an outrage. Most voted for Brexit which was supposed to make the UK freer, richer and more powerful. The thought of Dublin pushing us Unionists around is like a red rag to a bull – totally irrational rage. Also seen in many who will support the Brexit Party.
Sean, you say:
“The ones I know well — a former Head of Northumbria Physics and a Computing Prof in Bristol (West of England) were obviously very bright but had the Union hardwired into their brains.”
I vividly remember sitting next to my Ulsterman Uncle by marriage in 1969, watching reportage on the NI Election of that year, when Captain Terence O’Neill was NI PM, as I recall.
Someone was on TV, I forget now whether it was a commentator (most probably) or someone polled in the street for their opinions.
What I do vividly remember is that when the person’s name was flagged up (making it more likely to have been either a commentator, or some prominent person) my Uncle exclaimed: “You see, he’s a Catholic”, as though that were both a complete explanation and dismissal of what he said.
And this from a man with degrees coming out of his ears, and a Fellow of the both the English and Scottish Royal College of Surgeons.
Hard-wired indeed!
my reaction to your ancdote is “oh dear”.
That said I had the pleasure last year to work with a young chap from NI – studing at a mainland Europe uni – sharp as a new pin – pleasure to work with the guy.
He came from a protestant family – thinks Arleen is barking (family knows the woman) and in common with many of his contemporaries has an irish passport. One got the impression that this is the end days for the nut jobs in N.I. young people see what is happening in other places & don’t swallow the “tangerine dream” of “Ulster” or would that be “East Germany” circa 1988?
Thanks, a very nice anecdote,
Mike
I agree. The younger generation in NI are generally far better. The two I mentioned are in their 60s and 70s. There are however a large tranche of Loyalists, living in sink estates. Their grandparents would have found jobs easily in heavy industry (80% of Ireland’s industrial capacity was in the greater Belfast region). Unemployed and unskilled.
A lot of Protestants go to rather poor state schools. Catholics tend to go in the main to religious schools, which in general are far better academically (as in England).
Many years ago in the Maze when Republican and Loyalist “terrorists” were interned the Republicans largely signed up for Open University degrees, the Loyalists did not.
As I’ve said on Progressive Pulse, I’d be surprised if 8% of Ireland’s industrial capacity was in Northern Ireland. Comparison have indeed been made with E. Germany with Britain in the role of the Soviet Union. There are still some who would rather “reign in hell than serve in heaven” and there are ceartainly some who want to make NI a basket case so that it will be economically unviable for Ireland to take it on.
Sean
Thanks to Richard for pasting in the commentary about the Northern Ireland results.
As someone who has lived most of their (almost 60 year) life in Northern Ireland, I like the analogy with East Germany. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, I viewed NI as analogous to East Germany, where the Communists keep winning democratic elections, but find it more difficult with the passage of time.
This is especially so if some Unionists lose the run of themselves during campaigns and depict opponents as crocodiles (in 2017, mobilising support for Sinn Fein) or pro-Sinn Fein (in 2019, mobilising support for Alliance).
On your observation about the choices of Republican and Loyalist prisoners, when Northern Ireland was Unionist controlled, there were more and better opportunities for working class Protestants to advance compared to their Roman Catholic counterparts. Without over-generalising, it is not surprising that more Republicans used their time in jail to develop themselves educationally.
In terms of religious background, the playing field has now been considerably levelled, thanks to strong equality legislation particularly in employment.
Thanks David
Yes things are indeed much better in certain regards in NI. Katy Hayward has done some interesting work on how the younger generation if far less polarized than their parents. Katy of course spends nearly all her time on the Irish Border as her excellent work has propelled her to being one of the foremost experts on the border. Indeed Richard has even covered some of her work on this blog.
There has been comment on the Progressive pulse blog from a Unionist, a Nationalist and a Cross-Community perspective so may be worth popping over.
I do find it encouraging. NI is running far below its potential and there is a begging bowl attitude towards Westminster.
[…] this is what we actually have. Even in Northern Ireland, where voting patterns are deeply embedded, there are signs of change, but that’s not necessarily to the middle. That change is to ‘different’. And in the rest of […]