Council elections are, as we all know, only approximate indications as to voter intention in general elections. The variation in Labour's performance in 2017 proved that. But they Nonetheless, a useful barometer of opinion. And this is the, still very incomplete, state of play on yesterday's elections as at about 6.30 this morning:
What does it imply? First, the good news. Even with no Brexit Party in the fray the UKIP vote is being shredded. That is unambiguously good news. Although the fact that 17 have still been elected is worrying.
Second, the Greens have to be pleased, but it is still disheartening that people do not take the climate change issue seriously enough to vote for the only party who is really serious about it.
Third, the rise of independent candidates is extraordinary. They have all too often been Tories in disguise in local elections, so I am a little wary, but if analysis proves otherwise then this ‘break the mould' mood may be very significant.
As is the rise of the Lub Dems. With Tories and Labour both committed to Leave where else are Remainers going? I think the trend might be even stronger if there was a general election. I am not suggesting the LibDen# have much to offer. But they're very definitely back in the protest vote market. And right now that's a good place to be in because there is ample to protest about.
Of course some of that is aimed at the Tories, but still people vote for them. I really struggle to work out why, and in which parallel universe where all is milk and honey and the vicar still opens the the local Conservative fete these electors live. Do they have any comprehension of political reality, I wonder? This party is a wreck, and not remotely conservative, and they still vote for it.
And Labour? At a time when it should be picking up seats - not least because 2015 was hardly a high point for it - it's losing them. It takes staggering inability to achieve that. There are three possible reasons. The first is that no one still knows what Corbyn is doing, and so they will not vote Labour. The second is Leavers loathe him for that indecision. The third is Remainers loathe him for that indecision. I suspect all three are simultaneously true. At a strategic level this speaks only of failure. Whatever the hopes for the Corbyn project were - and they did exist, as I well know - I think it's fair to say they are no more. This is a party ignoring its members and the electorate simultaneously: it's never going to win with anyone from there. For the Left that's sad to note.
Where does that leave us? I stress, not all results are in and my opening caveat stands. That said, Remain parties have done well. The major parties have left them. The Remainers have left the major parties. I am not sure how much else is certain, excepting that UKIP does look a spent force: sans Farage and with the very far-right in tow their vote collapsed, even without the Brexit Party dusrupting the field.
Will the Brexit Party change anything? Yes, in the euro elections. And that will be it.
Thereafter? I can see no Tory alternative PM and no Labour position change (or even position) that can revive either fortunes much for now. So England is destined to still fight over Brexit. I think you can be sure election systems will now also be the focus of much debate as two moribund parties struggle to hold on to power. And meanwhile, Scotland will take note and go its own way. The Northern Ireland vote may well be telling on sentiment on that issue when they come.
We're in limbo, but the direction of travel is clear. Brexit parties are in trouble. And given that is both Labour and Tories, and the Brexit Party will punish both, the opportunity for change is real from the more radical and Remain side. The situation is not good. But nor is it entirely hopeless
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It’s good to wake up to read your qualified optimism. I just wish I could share it. The Tories seem to have done better than expected, i.e not a total melt down. But they probably hyped up anticipated losses. As you say, it’s very disappointing that more people are still not prepared to vote Green (my guess is there was a low turn-out for the under 25s). And you’re right to be very suspicious of Independent candidates, especially in this electoral cycle. If the results indicate anything meaningful on a national projection it looks to me that the chances of getting a progressive national government are significantly diminished and that the Farage-inspired Brexit brigade will punch successfully above their weight. In the meantime … the Labour Party is lost in the wilderness. Hopefully it’s just self-induced pessimism but the above results don’t augur well. Barista – un caffè lungo per favore.
Sometimes it’s good to be wrong. The size of the Tory collapse has probably exceeded their pre-hyped worse case scenario, while Labour’s losses are minimal by comparison. Skwawkbox has a point – https://skwawkbox.org/2019/05/03/huge-msm-misrepresentation-cant-hide-scale-of-tories-biggest-local-election-loss-this-century.
However, the $64,000 question is to figure out how local election results might translate into a GE. With the evident disillusionment with the main parties, ‘No Overall Control’ seems to be the direction of travel. But one wonders what the result might be under FPTP. So much depends on the location of votes within constituency boundaries. I’m sure the analysts are already poring over the results. Although a week is a long time in politics – I wonder what your antennae are telling you. And, should the UK participate, what effect – if any – will the EU election results have on a GE? Difficult to see the Tory position improving any time soon so maybe, as you say, the situation isn’t entirely hopeless and I should be less pessimistic than I was earlier in the day.
I suspect Others are based on specific local issues which might mean an anti-austerity vote?
One can hope
Sometimes the writing is on the wall for a long time (see eg https://bangordub.wordpress.com/2019/02/03/the-demographic-clock/). I wouldn’t over psephologise. The UK has hit the iceberg of break-up because of a refusal to alter course long before now. The Brexit vote was an attempt to accelerate past it but was misjudged so brings about the outcome it was hoped to prevent, and worse – – or in fact, better, if you believe in
Scottish independence
Irish unity
The end of the Westminster duopoly
PR
A new constitution
Etc
Having to deal with all this as well as climate change is challenging but a past refusal to change course is why the UK is where it is.
One factor on votes to consider: In my local elections I had a choice only of Lib Dem or Conservative candidates. In the District elections, a solitary Green candidate stood alongside the Lib Dems and Tories. It would be nice to present my opinion and influence the debate but that’s not a great deal of choice. It never has been for me though; my votes have always been (had to be) tactical.
Cheers Nick
I live in Luton and there were 48 Councillors elected to represent 19 wards. According to Luton Borough Council website 125 candidates were competing. There was only one green party candidate (and four kippers). The point being that in 18 wards people couldn’t vote green even if they wanted to. Hopefully the green party might publish stats on votes/councillors gained where seats were contested.
Brighton (from memory)
Labour 20 seats -3 vs 2015 32.3% of vote
Green 19 seats +8 vs 2015 34.1% of vote
Conservative 14 -6 vs 2015
Lib Dem 0 seats vs 0
Independent 1 +1
My view is that Labour party political chicanery has cost them dear.
As I have said before, people are looking for a lifeline, something to cling to.
Labour have not cast one out to the Remainers at all and refuse to play the role of heroic saviour. Their policy suggestions are also just as un-heroic.
It does not help however the Blue Labour would get the knives out to get Corbyn if he were more radical.
But as things stand now, the irony is that those knives can still be drawn on today’s showing.
To be brought down for trying to be brave is one thing and maybe worthy; to be brought down by being so ambiguous is self harm on the high end of a big scale of stupidity.
Your last point is so true
And the last thing I thought Corbyn would be
‘Triangulation’ is tempting for aspiring leaders, especially in countries with two predominant parties. But recent history shows it to be a risky strategy with a limited shelf-life. Corbyn seems not to have learned the lesson. (A 2017 prescient essay from speri – http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/2017/06/12/reassessing-corbynism-success-contradictions-and-a-difficult-path-ahead).
I noticed a significant amount of Independents cropping up,
a significant enough number to make me want to know what they really stand for,
Agreed
In my area, the so-called ‘Independents’ are actually Tories passed over when they merged three local councils this April. Unfortunately, they are the ones who got in. But in this area it is not a surprise.
Note also that what May & Labour take from this result is a plan to double-down on delivering Brexit!
Apparently, that is the message from migration to parties avowedly pro-remain. They should be careful about that course of action as I believe there is a pro-remain majority in the UK at this point and they will be pretty unhappy about that.
In the town I work in, a number of independents were die-hard Tories in their former lives.
As for any former Labour Councillors – they are now with UKIP – the UKIP Councillor in one ward totally destroyed his well-established Labour adversary – I mean just completely wiped the floor with him.
This town remains Tory led . ‘Tory led’ – I’ll say it again. All I can say is that I would like to see an age cohort analysis of the voting behaviour.
The reasons for this however are very local. The previous Labour administration was despised. Too many of it s Councillors were bullies and the ex leader of the Councillor was an Asian who usurped the previous white leader and you cannot discount racism being involved in the previous loss of Labour because of that.
I usually like to come across as understanding and empathetic with voters who do irrational things to hurt themselves but all I can say at this time is that the town I work in is full of dumb people. It things it’s a city (it has city status ) but honestly – it thinks like a town – small minded, petty, obsessed with its past.
But – if the only people who voted were those of a certain age (and we know turn out was low) it means that many youngsters have not bothered. In the place where I live we noted that the roll call at the voting station did not have a lot of people ticked off as having voted. And this was at 21:00. Interesting.
I also sense that panic is setting into the Labour party.
I’m serious.
Panic is not good in any organisation, but in a political party it is like standing next to a firework that you know has been lit, but will not go off – so something is brewing ready to ignite.
However Corbyn & Co analyse this, he’d better do a fucking good job of it because at the next election if he cannot be the Remain leader, then he will pay (and we will pay) the ultimate price. He will be finished (and he has entered the ante-chamber of this end already in my view).
Sorry about the swearing but never mind draining the swamp – we are all being bloody dragged into it!!
I share your frustrations
Turnout was v low
Chances are youths that vote Labour in GE didn’t turn up
Excuses….I thought that was what Momentum was all about?
In 2015, when these seats were last contested, Labour lost 203 seats and three councils, and the Tories were considered the clear winners. It was seen as a definite low point for Labour (although it was little discussed considering the Tories won a clear majority in the General Election).
SO, not all results are in yet for this year, but so far and as I write (about halfway through the declarations), Labour have lost 80 seats and another two councils (net). This is despite facing the worst, the absolute worst, the most shambolic government in the 40 years I have been following politics (and I just about recall the Winter of Discontent). Labour are making overall losses.
But according to Jeremy’s statement released 20 minutes ago, they are making gains…!!! What an absolute clown! The leadership of both parties – Lewis, May, McDonnell and Corbyn – are all saying that these results show the public are demanding that they deliver Brexit. If that is it, then we are doomed and I hope those politicians are all damned.
I have a lot of sympathy with that
These were local elections and so it is not so inexplicable that people voted Conservative; in my case they are by far the best group of Councillors to run our local authority.
But if your comment takes into account the national parties isn’t it just as inexplicable that anyone voted Labour?
I think the actual answer is that many fond both utterly unacceptable
Great article. Incisive and clear. However, I do wish you wouldn’t leave Wales out of the conversation, having brought Scotland and Northern Ireland in? I’m a huge fan but this is a smacks of a ready acceptance to treat us as part of the English paradigm?
Regards
Wales did not vote, so I had little to add there
Sorry? Neither did Scotland or NI but you referred to them?
OK