I wrote this days before the Referendum:
In fact I would argue recession is unavoidable. Investment in the UK will go on hold during renegotiation. No big business is going to sink millions or even billions into our economy without knowing what the future terms of UK trade might be. In itself this will be enough to trigger recession. Couple that with a planned withdrawal of certain parts of banking (those that need an EU regulatory base) from London and a downturn has to happen. Try as I might I cannot see where the stimulus happens. A sterling fall of 30% in recent years has not boosted UK growth so no one should respond by saying a fall in sterling us the counter-balance to all this. That will only create import induced cost push inflation, which is just about the last sort we want as it serves no domestic purpose at all.
I have a one word comment this morning.
Honda.
I could add I, and just about every other serious economist, was right. But the evidence will still be ignored.
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It will not just be ignored.
It will be welcomed too by those who think that they have suffered enough and it’s time others joined them. As Gary Younge in the Guardian has already quite rightly pointed out.
This is what you get when a increasingly minority party clinging to power (the Tory party) uses fascist techniques of division in its electioneering to emphasise and support the petty grievances between groups in society.
We have to accept that this has happened. And remember who is responsible and then work to ensure that they never again darken our democracy with their fascist filth.
It’s presumably to split the vote and keep them in power that Labour’s closet Tories have now quit the party while retaining their positions as MPs. No sign of them having any policies of their own, nor any plans to resign and let their constituency voters decide who represents them. Planned long long ago, I imagine, in a boardroom far, far away 🙂 Democracy, eh?
Quite possibly.
That may mean that Labour get smoked out on BREXIT which might not be a bad thing -they will have to play their hand. But they would have had to do that anyway without a split from the ‘ Malevolent Seven’.
The rest of their agenda – antisemitism for example – I am not sure that it is credible. No one I talk to who is for Labour recognises the party as described by these ‘shards’ of politicians such as they are.
If you want to see where the real anti-Semites , racists, sexists and other social deviants/extremists are you just need to go online for God’s sake. They’re all there. To suggest that Labour is a major base for anti-Semitism is a joke for me. I cannot take it seriously. Are Tory MPs going to leave because of Windrush? Yeah right.
Anti-Semitism is everywhere and needs to be countered everywhere. In Germany you can see 24 hour police patrols outside a number of synagogues as well as the ‘Solperstein’ (stumbling stones), handmade brass plates commemorating the Jews who were evicted and sent to the death camps throughout Germany:
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2019/feb/18/stumbling-stones-a-different-vision-of-holocaust-remembrance
Why the police? Because the divisive language and practice of fascism being used throughout Europe and in the UK from zombie parties clinging to power or ghost fascists seizing the opportunity to get in on the back of discontent – that’s why.
These seven have no answers whatsoever – which adds power to the idea that they are just Corbyn rejectionists and nothing else.
I do think Labour has an anti-semitism problem
It is not alone, but it does have to deal with it
And other issues
I note John McDonnell says he is now in listening mode
I can hope…..
So why are Honda also shutting their plant in Turkey, which IS in a customs union with the EU?
And why are Honda saying that it has nothing to do with Brexit?
It’s easy to blame everything on Brexit but UK employment levels are at record numbers and despite all the doomsayers we haven’t had a recession in the UK, and the economy is performing better than our major European peers like Germany, Italy and France – the first two of which ARE already in recessions.
The EU have a trade deal with Japan that knocks the UK and Turkey out of consideration…
We do not share it
Richard you have again stated that Labour has a problem with antisemitism. I agree, like Norway has a problem with lions. They aren’t many of them and anyway they are in the wrong habitat. I nor any of my Jewish comrades have ever come across AS in the Labour Party nor any other party on the left. Lucinda Berger was subject to vile AS abuse, but no evidence it came from Labour Party members. I understand that three people were prosecuted as a result but all three from the far right, not the left. Chuga stated in 2016 that in 20 years of being a member of the Labour Party he too had never come across AS within it. Suddenly after JC is elected as leader he changes his tune. Margreat Hodge has been a colleague of Jeremy Corbyn for over 30 years but it took until 2016 to discover he was a f…ck..g AS.
In short heavy on accusations, very light on any evidence that AS is endemic within the Labour Party. If there was there would be physical evidence to support it. I don’t see any. Do you? If you do evidence please. Names and LP membership details.
I agree with Tom Watson on this issue
And support his view on it
But then, I’ve always had tome for Tom
I suggest you should have too if you had any concern for the Labour Party – because I think you are the person in denial
@JohnAdams is perfectly correct regarding the alleged Labour Antisemitism ‘crisis’ and your resort to (the meagre, self-servingly centrist) authority of Tom Watson is not good enough.
Evidence collected by YouGov for the Campaign Against Antisemetism, CAA) shows that antisemitic views are lower in the Labour Party than they are in the population as a whole and have been falling since Corbyn became leader (although the CAA did their best to hide this):
https://skwawkbox.org/2018/03/29/exclusive-caa-yougov-data-show-labour-significantly-less-antisemitic-under-corbyn/
As John rightly states, the evidence for any of the abuse being linked to Labour members simply has not been provided – let alone anything close to support the ‘institutionally antisemtic’ claims of the Independent Group Ltd.
If these views were so rife in the party, one would wonder why someone has found it necessary to set up fake accounts to associate Labour with such vile views.
https://electronicintifada.net/content/fake-labour-accounts-fueling-anti-semitism-crisis/26441
The deputy leader of the Labour Party is self serving?
And unaware when he suggest there is anti-semitism in the Labour Party?
Don’t you realise how badly that reads to anyone who thinks there should be zero-tolerance on this issue? It looks very much to me that you are far too relaxed about it. And I condemn that and am happy to stand with Tom Watson on this issue.
To summarise, you are the problem, and Labour is unacceptable whilst it has members who are happy to exonerate those who anti-Semitic.
And stop the nonsense that they do not exist – Labour is overwhelmed by investigations of cases.
Richard – we have had months of reports framing antisemitism as both unique to and rife within Corbyn’s Labour party – to state that it is neither is not to deny it’s existence or exonerate any antisemites – it is just a statement of fact.
Labour has investigated, or is investigating, a few hundred cases which have led to numerous expulsions and suspensions (and quite right too) – but this number represents just 0.1% of the membership. We may have been further along with these had Ian McNichol (Tom Watson’s chum who was General Secretary prior to Jennie Formby taking over) not sat on his hands for months.
The likes of Hodge, Watson et all now have clear procedures under which they can act to report any abuse and have it investigated properly – that they have not used them I think speaks volumes.
In the meantime, what really is hampering the fight against antisemitism are the likes of Joan Ryan MP who not only cried wolf repeatedly as a member but also completely fabricated a case against an elderly member to further her political causes. I’m delighted that the odious woman has left the party.
https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/asa-winstanley/how-israel-lobby-fakes-anti-semitism
Adrian
With respect I find your views to those raising question deeply offensive
You are using this issue for political gain – and that is repugnant
Richard
Chris says:
“It’s easy to blame everything on Brexit but UK employment levels are at record numbers”
Nonsense. Underemployment is vast. Probably 20% wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration.
Numbers are designed to bamboozle. If the employment/unemployment figures were even a close representation of reality we’d be seeing wage inflation.
I agree underemployment is vast
In employment
And even more in self employment
@ Richard
We are still members of the EU and are currently in their trade deals. Including the one with Japan.
@ Andy Crow
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/underemploymentandoveremploymentemp16
Underemployment stands at 7.5%, not the 20% you claim. You may think 7.5% is “vast” but historically it is not – the all time lows are around 6%.
We are also seeing slow wage inflation, running at 3.4%.
We are in the EU for six weeks
have you not noticed?
If you are going to comment here try to be credible
And understand what underemployment is
@ Richard
We are in the EU for the next 6 weeks. But you are saying we should STAY in the EU.
The point is, Honda leaving the UK is simply not about Brexit.
I am using the ONS definition of underemployment. Not the “make it up as I go along” definition, which you and some of your posters here seem to prefer.
By all means bury your head in the sand, but Brexit does not explain all the bad things that happen to the UK, it doesn’t explain why the EU is doing worse than the UK economically, and you can’t just ignore the data that shows the UK is doing well because it suits your anti-brexit argument.
Chris
You are trolling
I know from the IP details you are leaving
And I am really not interested in trolls
Richard
Chris
Maybe stop reading the Daily Mail and/or listening to the Tory propagandists and have a look at this:
https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/
So I should instead listen to hard left anti-Brexit propaganda instead?
When you look at their data all they have done is take any job losses and attribute it to Brexit. Top of their list – Honda. When Honda specifically say it is nothing to do with Brexit.
Not only that, they include (again in their own data) austerity, economic slowdown and cancelled projects as reasons for job losses…..then go ahead and attribute those to Brexit anyway. I find it hard to believe the Worcester County Council (as an example) are shedding jobs because of Brexit. Or Hitachi not building new nuclear power stations, again nothing to do with Brexit which they claim has cost 9350 jobs.
Nor of course, does it explain why employment levels are at all time highs (despite Brexit) and unemployment levels are at 40 year lows (despite Brexit).
I really think you are in the wrong place Chris
This is not a trolling site for right-wingers with nothing to do
I expect the Brexit cheer leaders will see this as a great triumph. Clearing the field of (wily) Japanese car manufacturers so we can see the renaissance of the British car manufacturing industry…….
Yeah right.
Are we ready for the all new Austin Allegro 2.0 ?
Square wheel and everything!
Andrew, they seem mostly to be saying that the loss of car manufacturing is nothing to do with Brexit but instead is because of consumer shifts like the move away from diesel and so on.
I think that is a factor
But to say Brexit has no role is just crazy
Of course it has
Ed Miliband’s former advisor said on Channel 4 News last night that she had already had messgaes from Tories that said, Thank you. So, some Tories at least think this group’s exit from Labour will give them a fillip of some sort.
Chris
The website I suggested you look at does give its methodology – look at it.
‘Business Prices’ – hard left? Dearie me!! Can you substantiate that? If it were hard left it would celebrating every job lost as good extreme Marxists would. But it doesn’t.
Do please realise that the Government is still committed to austerity.
It has to be so that it can pay for the downturn that it will cause from BREXIT.
Therefore employers like Worcester County Council will not get a cash injection like the DUP did in order to prop up Theresa May. Or maybe because it is ran by Tories that WCC has decided to become an outsourcing council so it too can cope with BREXIT as business rates might collapse and local people lose yet more jobs? That money will probably used to hire a couple of barges from your local canal museum to bring imports into the county?
Joking aside, read the methodology of Business Prices. It’s sound and open – totally unlike the Leave campaign of course.
My worry is we’ll cause another Global Financial Crisis and then we’ll be trying to negotiate preferential trade deals in a world that hates us because we lost them jobs and prosperity.
Some of the things the ERG are pushing are hugely chaotic (like unilateral removal of tariffs) and the City is profoundly threatened by a No Deal exit. Even where there a technocrats able to save us there’s a strong chance that their political opponents will tie their hands.
This could get calamitous.
I gather Patrick Minford has predicted that after Brexit there will be no car manufacture in Britain. But he still thinks it’s a price worth paying. A society of Gig workers and grandees.
And tax haven finance
We can all live off tax planning….
There is a sulphurous whiff of witch-hunting about the whole current antisemitism conversation.
Witch-hunting is very rarely about hunting witches. It always about seeking power, usually via wealth. Or seeking wealth by the distorting of the levers of power.
Of course some are using this as an excuse. That is no more acceptable to me, because it is, in its own way, abusive. But let’s not pretend it is not an issue. Just read the comments on Tomn Watson on the Guardian (not that I ever recommend reading Comment is Free commentary: it is seriously bad for anyone’s health)
Richard surely you must agree that the Labour Party General Secretary Jenny Formby has addressed this, processing 673 cases in ten months, some were found with no merit. Some were worthy of warnings or other sanctions. Twelve were serious enough that members were expelled. Many complaints were against people who are not members of the Labour Party. The number of cases is less than .01% of the membership meaning that 99.9% have faced no such accusation. I agree one case is one case too many. But come on “the Labour Party is institutionally racist and antisemitic” – the evidence to hand doesn’t support such a charge.
I accept there have been investigations
But you know, as well as I do, that these will be the tip of the iceberg
Most people walk away
Labour may not be worse than the world at large – maybe not
But it should be 100 times better
And if it is not, and any of this is seen as linked to left of centre ideology – and some seem to make that link – then it is exceedingly toxic
I am persuaded that risk very definitely exists
I think you protest much to much
I do not think that anyone is saying that anti-Semite sentiment is not a problem in Labour or that it should be ignored.
Our society as I see it (and also in what I have seen abroad in Europe in 2017/2018) is now riven with division as a result of a minority Tory party using local grievances to drive though national policy. The right wing fascist piranha’s can smell blood in the water and are capitalising on it. For the grave of Karl Marx to be desecrated along with the same desecration of Jewish cemeteries we have seen tells us something dark and unpleasant is amongst us again.
My discomfort at thinking about Labour in these terms stems from the fact that there is a wider problem in our society that is more than anti-Semitism which is only one of the symptoms of increasing nationalism, exceptionalism and intolerance but also representative of looking for someone to blame – oh – there always has to be someone to blame other than those who actually cause whatever it is!!
The Windrush debacle for example stains our country and the Tory party who created it but I sense less anger and interest about it than what is happening in Labour. I’m sure that I am not making this up.
If it is true that Labour has an anti-Semite problem, then it is also true of our society in general. And it it is also a fact as far as I am concerned that the Tories have humanity problem given their inhuman treatment of immigrants, the disabled and the poor for nearly 10 years (maybe we should call this a ‘compassion deficit?) and that this too exists in our society.
But by highlighting this as a reason for leaving, the ‘Malignant Eight’ as they are now, are using a truth to assault and undermine their party and their leader when they should be sticking together.
The Malignant Eight are using truth in the worst way – for their own personal gain and to pursue their own particular ‘vision’ (whatever that is). They have used an internal party problem to justify their resentment thus making it look like a party problem and less like wider society’s problem – which it is.
In fact the we should call them ‘The Hateful Eight’ because not only do they hate their leader but their abuse of truth as revealed by their tactics seem very fascistic to me.
I have just heard that some Tories have joined The Eight. So now we have ‘Tory Lite Party’ at last. The 3 female Conservatives seem head and shoulders above the 8 Labour MPs and seem to me to be leaving because of BREXIT and nothing else (Heidi Allen cries a lot at food banks but I do not expect a conversion to social democracy from any of them too soon).
Events dear boy, Events!
I cannot imagine that these 11 can deliver the reform this society needs
But nor can May or Corbyn do so either
I agree with your last comment – it’s sad, but true.
But I also agree with others here that the emphasis on Labour and its problems has something not quite right about it. The only derogatory comments I have ever come across recently about the Jewish community have been from those I know to be of a right wing persuasion – honestly.
I wonder if The Eleven will be talking to you about new ideas. That would make them a serious proposition in my eyes at least.
As for the ‘independents’ – we need new entrants into politics that do not come from existing parties.
And we need a new system – like PR.
But I can also see where you are coming from. A true party that purports to fight for social justice does need to be associated with anti-Semitism.
It should set standards. Yes.
But a party – any political party – is made up of those from a society. What does it tell you about our society today? It makes for a grim reflection, I can tell you.
Austerity? It’s not just a question of a lack of money. It’s also a lack of humanity; compassion; empathy; togetherness; spirituality; warmth; consideration; imagination; hope.
Awful.
I think there is no chance the ’11’ will be interested in my ideas
Chris Leslie will be claiming the economics slot and he is deeply economically illiterate, in my opinion
‘Just watching Channel 4 News.
Anna Soubry has just defended the economic destruction the Tories undertook when they got into power in the first few years after 2010 and onwards.
And Chukka is a good friend apparently.
Oh dear…………………..I think you have another point Richard! Help!
I told you
This is not the new party we need…..
I could take Bernie
But not this
RM says:
“I think there is no chance the ’11’ will be interested in my ideas”
I think that’s a safe bet.
It’s not clear to me that these renegades have an ‘idea’ between them. So far they seem to be the throwing the toys out of the pram party. I find it hard to believe this is a movement….more of a twitch……It’s not a break I was hoping to see and I see little chance that it might go anywhere useful. If anything it seems to have set off in the wrong direction.
Numerically it exceeds Pirandello’s six characters in search of an author; eleven extras in search of a script perhaps. I notice they haven’t any of them given up the day job.