The FT has noted that:
Trucks would face six-day queues to board ferries at Dover if new customs checks in the event of a no-deal Brexit were to delay each vehicle by just 70 seconds, according to government-commissioned research.
A summary of the analysis obtained by the Financial Times claims extra processing time of 80 seconds per truck would lead to “no recovery” – described by an official as widespread permanent gridlock.
And this ignores what happens in France.
To use a technical term, we're completely and utterly fucked if we leave without a deal.
And we cannot feed the country in that case.
I know this is being issued as propaganda in advance of the debate on May's deal, but shall we stop pretending that this is not the case, irrespective of that?
Which does not mean we need to support May. Staying is obviously the solution to this problem.
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I suspect everyone knows it has to be said but no-one in politics wants to be the one to say it as they’ll get the blame from everyone else for all and any consequences. It’s like those sequences in Sergio Leone westerns where everyone’s squinting at each other, waiting to see who’s going to draw first. Well, do we care? Our elected representatives got themselves into this mess, let them get themselves out of it.
Staying has been the obvious answer since the morning after the “advisory, non-binding!” referendum.
It’s absolutely incredible that “The Mother of Parliaments”…in the 21st Century…with all the information freely available online to anyone interested enough to look…has allowed itself to be commandeered and steamrollered into the biggest act of self harm to any nation in history.
Unless, of course……
Was it Dennis Howe who was Labour Minister of Sport, then minister for drought and minister for snow? England won the World Cup, it rained and the snow melted. We need this genius back. If Brexit has taught me anything it’s that a progressive centre party (non-neo-liberal) would be way to the ‘left’ of Labour under faded cranks from the 70’s. Even the Tories (all short the pound and Footsie) are practising circling their wagons, perhaps in order to escape with lorry loads of Swiss Francs.
More worried about insulin.
And if we decide, unilaterally, not to impose any checks on our side?
And the French, who aren’t fools, decide not to impose checks at their end?
Do you really believe that our European friends would want the bad publicity that would surely come if your prophecy of starvation came true?
I don’t believe that we should leave without a deal (both we and the EU would suffer as a consequence), but to say that we’d be FUCKED is a bit over the top.
The French do not have a choice under EU rules.
They will impose them.
We could say we won’t but this will then create a nightmare for re-exporters, so in practice we pronbably will
No doubt the rules will, eventually, be applied. But how likely, do you honestly believe, are they to be vigorously applied from day one? IMVHO, in a ‘no deal’ situation, common sense will prevail – on both sides – re. such practical issues as medication; flights; food; etc.
I
I can see no reason at all for the EU to waive rules
This may seem harsh (forgive me), but I am afraid that in spite of your use of the term “common sense” what you have written has no relationship whatsoever with “common sense”. The EU is not going to destroy its principles for Britain’s self-indulgent convenience. Britain chose this ‘car crash’ as a solution: this is how the people who won Brexit actually do Brexit. The “common sense” escape for Britain is in Britain’s own hands. Withdraw Article 50, or make an emergency request to the EU for an extension. It really is simple, and common sense.
No Deal is the deliberate policy of almost half the Conservative Party; using No Deal as an intimidatory threat of Armageddon is the policy of almost the other half of the Conservative Party. I make special exception for the very honourable and brave Anna Soubry, and Dominic Grieve.
Not harsh, at all.
We shall have to wait and see, in the event of a no deal, just how pragmatic, or not, both sides are really prepared to be.
I’m very optimistic that those in charge will neither want to ‘cut off their nose to spite their face’ nor, much more importantly IMVHO, want to risk the wrath of their electorate.
You really do underestimate the requirement to uphold the rule of law
No, I see now; not harsh at all. Your last response leaves me open-mouthed and dumbfounded. You actually believe that? Your very humble opinion rather suggests to me, that a game of ‘chicken’ is being played, in the hope the other side blinks first. Less common sense than cynicism.
I’m not trying to be flippant. But what will happen in France and the other EU countries RoRo port traffic to the UK?
Am I wrong to think they will not have any extra to do on their exports than now? Certainly on food exports to the Uk.
I understand that exports from the UK will obviously be affected by EU checks.
They will indeed have much more to do
It may seem like our choice on whether to impose conditions on imports on not. But given that so many are re-exported that’s not really a choice we have tab all since the paperwork has to flow.
Having been through Dover, Holyhead, Fishguard, Dublin, Rosslare and Calais many times on my brother’s intercontinental truck in the 1990’s all I can say is that we should be very worried indeed about a No Deal.
Expect to see our media treating this problem in the same vein as us Brits sitting in deck chairs on a wind and rain swept beach on our holidays extolling the virtue of the ‘Dunkirk spirit’. There will be plenty of willing mugs to smile in front of the cameras.
‘This happy breed’ and all that. No doubt the rich in Westminster will have a nice black market all to themselves like they always do.
Yes – we must stay but I feel that the solution may well involve an empty beer can and a long road.
The research anticipates that extra customs checks of up to 40 seconds per vehicle would have no impact on the queueing time for outward journeys through Dover.
Easy – take this option in preference to the 80 second one.
And on such naivete are disasters built
There will be some value of checking time in seconds which has no net knock on effect in terms of backlogs building up. Just look at what happens at the borders into Norway and Switzerland.
The question is what that value is which is what the modellers were looking at. To dismiss that such a value exists is naive.
Ou do realise Norway and Switzerland have deals?
It really does help to make valid comparisons.
We’re told it took 13 years for the Swiss to negotiate their agreement with the EU, a period during which the country did not go to the dogs or have significant border delays leading to food shortages.
My principle point is trivially true – that being that there will be some value of checking time in seconds which has no net knock on effect in terms of backlogs building up.
But then there were prior arrangements that worked
And we will have no prior arrangements that can work because we will have renounced them in the case of No Deal
But maybe parliament will save us from ever having to test this nightmare
I much prefer the term ‘cluster-bourach’…..
Which it is….. We, in Scotland, hopefully, have an exit….. from this mess.
I hope all my fellow Scots will join us in Independence. Nicola has been the only politician with a level head from day 1
I agree.
Also, in answer to the question of the politician who has the courage speaks up about not leaving, see Alyn Smith MEP.
It is absolutely appalling that we are such a position. And as last night’s ‘The Uncivil War’ showed, one of the many reasons this happened was the manipulation of sections of the electorate by unscrupulous right wing politicians and psychopaths like Cummings using social media tools.
If we had a PM or leader of the opposition who possessed a scrap of competence we needn’t be here. May could have held off declaring Article 50, should have stood up to the extremists and insisted the UK stayed in the SM and CU…etc, etc. And Corbyn should, especially in the light of revelations since 2016 about the corruption of the democratic process by the Leave campaigns, have opposed, and be opposing now, the whole Brexit project.
With time running out to avoid disaster, they should be looking to revoke Article 50, or ask the EU to postpone it. Instead, May clings to her crappy agreement which is just more can kicking, and Corbyn is even worse, ignoring the views of the overwhelming majority of Labour party members because he is vehemently anti EU, and can’t wait to leave the EU, regardless of the consequences.
So where we desperately need leadership in a time of crisis, we have one of the worst PM’s and opposition leaders of all time. The ‘Maybot and the Muppet’. God, what a pair.
Indeed. Perhaps your concerns should be with those who elected them though.
Bill, as one of those who voted for Corbyn via the £3 membership route, I will hold my hands up and admit it was a grievous error. I’ll plead some mitigation in that at the time he was put up as a leadership candidate, I was voting for what I felt was a long overdue shift to the left in British politics as following the 2015 Tory election win, I felt things had gone far too far to the right, and needed a counter.
And to an extent, I think I was right. Unfortunately, as Richard has long pointed out, Corbyn’s judgement as a leader, and his ability and willingness to consider the complexity of the world in 2018, are non-existent. Not only does he want Brexit, even if he didn’t, I don’t believe he has the competence to effectively oppose the Brexit process. Just like May, he prefers prevarication, can kicking and obfuscation to decisive and effective decision making.
And as for how May got to be PM……….that’s the Tory party for you. A party where over 50% of the membership would prefer the disaster of a no deal exit, such is their moronic nationalism, stupidity and selfishness.
Why is anyone pretending otherwise?
Intransigence and denial.
Because they still want to believe the crap that was thrown at them in 2016.
Because they still wan’t the comfort of thinking that real concerns were all just “Project Fear”.
Because they are psychologically incapable of admitting they were wrong and would rather double-down on an error than back down.
Because they can admit an error but it takes them about 4 years to do it.
Some people don’t adjust very quickly.
Others have their reputations invested in it and can’t back down, or so they think.
Even if the worst-case, no-deal scenario became reality some of these people, the Boris Johnson types, would be getting around saying that it wasn’t really that bad, just some people whingeing, it must be their fault, ‘things will pick up’. Think of the Black Knight in Mony Python’s ‘Holy Grail’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UijhbHvxWrA
What if Brexit is not classified as an exit but as a “split” in the EU nation state.
There are precedents and protocols in the WTO for managing when a country splits eg Yugoslavia and Sudan.
Great Britain and Northern Ireland European Economic Area. I think the name will fit on my passport. Like the law the use of words and terminology is important.
What do others legally view that we are splitting from the EU over for us issues of fairness, fishing, migrant rights, etc eg. as we currently have the same standards laws etc.
This is not what is happening
Nor will happen
And I do not have time for what is too remote to worry about now