A commentator asked on the blog overnight whether I might change my mind on Brexit in due course. After all, he pointed out, I have not always been the biggest fan of the EU. And, he argued, it is quite possible we will muddle through Brexit and then reach the socialist promised land some on the left think possible. Since it's always wise to think you might be wrong, I have given this some thought.
I am not convinced I will change my mind. I accept we will muddle through Brexit. Let's be quite clear; whilst I think it will be a tough experience that could be a nightmare in the case of hard Brexit, I have no doubt that people will continue to live in the UK, and most will be able to provide for themselves, even if not quite as well as if we'd stayed. Those who will struggle will be those who always seem to suffer - and who both Labour and Tories (but especially the latter) have not been good at protecting for a long time. That is what worries me.
The fact that I cannot see the Union surviving Brecit for long means I worry more about the fate of those on lower incomes in a Tory dominated England and Wales.
And I see the chance of the socialist dream in England and Wales as very limited in that case. In Northern Ireland and Scotland the chances are at least higher, although Northern Ireland will still take time to heal divisions and the SNP will have to abandon the Growth Commission or neoliberalism will still be having a field day there.
So, overall, I see little political gain from any of this. At least, not in England and Wales.
And I see little economic gain anywhere.
As for the broader politics. I am at heart a European. Of course the fact that I have allegiance to two European countries fuels that feeling. But it is more than that. Maybe WW2 was just too close when I was being brought up to be ignored: the wounds were very obvious in my parents' generation. So were the stories. So was the fear of what might have been. The feeling of ‘never again' was real. It remains with me. And imperfect as it is - and I acknowledge all its faults - the EU is a means of saying ‘never again'. As it challenges Hungary and Poland now in ways that could not otherwise be achieved it does that. Let's not ignore that when we also note its failings in Greece and now Italy.
So, will I regret leaving that union, which I believe is deeply wounded by our departure? Yes, I do. And yes, I think I will continue to do so. In which case I do not think I will change my mind. Instead, as I discussed with my eldest son last night as the dog witnessed yet another political discussion during his evening walk, I think on which side people stood now will define politics in thios country for at least two geenrations, and could well result in new political alignments as wounds across this divide are not healed.
Which is why May's letter to the country saying we should all move on is absurd. Ireland has taken a century to get over its issues of the early 1920's. We may not take quite that long, but to pretend that this issue will go away soon is absurd. Brexit is, and will remain, the major political theme of our times. And if we leave the debate about rejoining will be ever recurring. This one is going to run and run. And it is not economics or short term politics that will solve it. This is about deep world views - and none to do with neoliberalism at all. This is about embracing the other, or not. And that's an issue too deep to go away. It's where politics now is.
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Entirely agree. Us staunch remainers feel cheated by the lies and that won the referendum. I am and will continue to be angry about this – and I cant see it changing.
But, what about leavers? Those who feel that the promised land of complete independence has been snatched away from them? Many people I know and still consider friends are also angry at this. Us remainers can justify it as they are angry at the wrong people (we say it was those who promised a solution that was unachievable) but ‘I told you so’ rarely moves a conversation forward positively.
There is and will continue to be anger on both sides.
And I’m not sure that NI has ‘got over’ its issues from the 1920s completely quite yet.
There is no such thing as ‘the promised land of complete independence’.
There are trade deals to be made, either with our closest neighbours, or new separate (not independent) WTO ones, outside of EU with the U.S.,China, Australia, etc…
Don’t even mention the air miles or sea miles involved which make no environmental sense.
Yup. “Incompetent cowardice” more or less sums up our politicians, in the face of what I have long suspected is English Nationalist gerrymandering by the Tories. Brexit will go down in history in terms of its opportunity costs. We might instead have been debating constitutional reform and green industry investment and implementation across Europe. This would have entailed how to do the financing and reform of that within the whole trading block. Nothing to see here, move on! Perhaps the saddest thing has been the demonstration that our politicians (with some exceptions) have all been at soundbite slogans, prepared to stoop to this grim popularism amongst a press incapable of pointing out the hideous origins of “hit dumb masses with slogan and slogan again”. On the up side, by the time the Tories get to claim their English crown, things may be bad enough for even little Englanders may not vote for them!
Much to agree with here.
Even if we complain about something it is often because we care about it – not that we are seeking to undermine something.
We live in strange times. The other day a senior colleague told me that just because I was right about something did not mean that it was the right thing to say. My response was automatic: if saying what was right was not the right thing to do then I was in the wrong place and I needed to move on.
I agree with you that you should talk truth to power. But these days? I tell you – Power cannot take it Richard. Power is too narcissistic, too insecure, not as clever as it makes out and in fear of being found out.
Why? Because maybe Power these days is just about managing perceptions in order to give other objectives an easy ride? Think about how Universal Credit is defended by the DWP and the Government even though we know that it is too ambitious, too inflexible and ineffective to the point where even an external source (the UN) tells the Government so. Every charge put to UC receives the same robotic response about how good it is, it puts people back into work etc etc. They hold the line. And it goes in.
I’m going to go back to a troubling statement or two in Lakoff’s framing idea in Andy Crow’s posting the other day. At around 07:52 in the film Lakoff talks about language – repetitive language – that activates world views in people’s brains if they hear language often enough. At 08:13 he talks about the Conservative ‘Leadership Institute’ training people about how to go out into the world to talk incessantly about conservative values. He also mentions that the Democrats sniffed at the same idea for themselves.
But here we are – information from a credible source (Lakoff) clashing in my view with those who say talk of an organised Conservative Neo-liberalism is nothing but a conspiracy theory.
My view therefore is slightly different to your conclusion. Where we are does not go beyond Neo-liberalism. I contend that where we are is the result of rampant force-fed Neo-liberalism that is still deeply inculcated in societies around the world including ours.
BREXIT is pure Neo-liberalism in that its proponents want no rules to be imposed on themselves. They want a free-reign to make money where and when they want. The Prime Minister continues to manage the perceptions of the process like a modern Neo-lib leader should.
Universal Credit represents the hardening of social attitudes to worklessness and low pay and the requirement to believe that if you are in dire straits or disabled it is your fault and no one else’s.
The BBC reports the economy as if boom and bust is a natural phenomenon and if it happens that you loose your job as a result, well that’s just tough luck – what did you expect?
And, if the natives get reckless and sense that the authoritarian Neo-lib bullshit is the problem , Conservative Neo-libs can always point their fingers at the enemy within – trade unions, immigrants, teachers, the disabled, LGB&T or even that most harmless of human beings – trainspotters.
All of these (and more) could be seen in the context of Lakoff’s ‘tough father analogy’ – a trope of the conservative Neo-liberalists as far as I am concerned and very much in line with best selling author Ayn Rand’s views expressed in books like ‘Atlas Shrugged’.
Believe you me, Neo-liberalism has a lot to answer for. In line with one of your other commentators, I want Neo-liberalism rendered extinct. This will not happen if we do not acknowledge firstly how effective it is at being used to influence the framing of political/moral issues and (secondly) that progressives must work harder at competing against its cod morality and give a convincing counter-narrative.
Neo-liberalism is a alive and well and thriving in our communities. We must deal with it.
Pilgrim Slight Return says:
“….Conservative Neo-libs can always point their fingers at the enemy within — trade unions, immigrants, teachers, the disabled, LGB&T ……..or even that most harmless of human beings — trainspotters.”
That’s a bit below the belt, Pilgrim !!
🙂
Andy
Trust you to get another bloody smiley.
Huh!
🙂
As a one time student of literature and education I agree that language is central. And ever since Thatcher the right has consolidated its grip on the language and learned the lessons of the great propagandists of the recent past – Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia and not forgetting the USA and the propaganda of the American Dream and Exceptionalism and rising once more “to make America grate again”.
But the left found it easier to accept the right’s language and adopt it rather than challenge it and expose the tropes for dangerous nonsense, at best, and vile, discriminatory propaganda at worst.
Common Purpose is doing neo-liberal propaganda in the UK. Purports to be management development, though it’s a sad version. Our tax has been paying for all sorts to attend. Brian Gerrish runs a site in critique.
@ Pilgrim Slight Return
Well argued comment. I personally think Neoliberalism is just Libertarian Fascism. An obvious paradoxical term or oxymoron but not when you think the Libertarianism (government as irresponsible and stiffling) is promoted in theory as a smokescreen to cover the Fascism implemented in practice.
It is certainy heading that way
I wouldn’t argue with that Schofield.
Fascism is just a diversionary activity whilst the wealth of the commons is raped.
I know that sounds a bit strong but whilst I’m thoroughly sick of them I feel that not only are progressives out-fought but we are also out-thought by the Neo-libs.
Excellent, well considered, post Richard.
Just for a bit of short-term context , the latest large-scale Survation poll shows Labour leading the Tories in England and Wales — 43% to 42%. People can be forgiven for not noticing this as polls only make the news when the Tories are ahead. It’s also worth mentioning that Survation were by a long chalk the most accurate pollsters ahead of the 2017 General Election.
This is not to say that the path ahead is necessarily going to be rosy or smooth, but the assumption that England & Wales are always going to be Tory dominated is not as clear cut as received wisdom suggests.
https://www.survation.com/labour-leads-the-conservative-party-in-england-and-wales-while-snp-have-large-lead-in-scotland/
I agree
But that margin is literally within the margin for error, whoever does the survey
According to the latest combined polling – albeit 10 days ago – both parties are at 38% (https://pollofpolls.eu/GB). Allowing for margin of error, this is terrible for Corbyn and the LP. Considering the country’s appalling leadership and socio-economic performance, the LP should be at least 10 points ahead. Seems like a race to the bottom. I can’t see a tv debate changing the overall dynamics much, can you?
I despair that many in Labour see no problem with this situation
That is interesting, but in and of itself no more. Survations’ polling is headline by nation – its doesnt go down to where it is important. I have long suspected that Labour will increase its majorities in seats that do not matter; but will not win in those 100 constituencies where the election is actually won or lost
The trope about split families has real existence – crippling communication at the deeper levels that really matter. Brexit has, like the lightning flash in Soutar’s poem “Birthday” left “a lanely lowe/That wudna gang awa” and as enduring as the Grampian Mountains revealed in his poem, the stark outlines and the still deeper clefts exposed simply will not go away – for they were always there, but in Albee’s phrase they remained “something unspoken”. There are now people with whom it is now impossible, politely, to pretend that we have not seen that which we have.
Yes – Scotland, thank goodness, should manage now to emerge from its imprisonment in the new ‘Brexitania’ and it will do so, I believe, with the Growth Commission largely binned. I will be glad – no, absolutely delighted – but I will also be sad to see the miserable narrowing of the lives and futures of my English friends, relatives and wider circle, few of whom have deserved May’s – and it has to be said, Corbyn’s – botched polity.
Perhaps above all else, there is the bitter sense of being, potentially (for the jig is not yet finally up) ripped out of that community of fellow Europeans, which held so much more hope for our part of this troubled world than the entrenched, mindless antagonisms of our continent’s not so distant past. As for you, Richard, the awful reality of “the War” was for me, born in ’43, far too close ever to be forgotten.
And all of this, would be on top of the actual, computable damage that will be done to the economies of these islands (for even Ireland will suffer, though to a much smaller extent) and to the all too countable numbers of lives here and across the rest of Europe whose opportunities personal, professional and economic, will be cramped and confined by this mean-spirited act of vandalism.
Thirty seven years ago I remember the shocked debate held by my college’s, validators as they struggled to accept the prologue of a new undergraduate course on European history – which defined its area of study as “understood as including these islands”. It’s depressing – but necessary – to start refighting those battles all over again. The only alternative is emmigration further into Europe. Er… my other home is in Italy, so small comfort there. Independent Scotland in Europe looks the only ‘New Road’ to tread and I’ll hope to be sticking to that.
Thanks
Since Brexit will inevitably lead to the break-up of the UK, would it not be simpler for all concerned if the UK remained in the EU and those parts of the UK that want to leave to secede from the UK?
Nice idea
The trouble is there would be at least two remaining bits
At the end of the day many voters in the UK don’t seem to be capable of identifying values that will be just and useful for the country’s future. Only Scotland seems to be bucking this predicament but even here its leaders are still buying into the Neoliberal lie in regard to money creation. It looks very much like the country’s going to discover the above values the hard way if Brexit is implemented and mindless Austerity Cuts continued by the country’s political parties.
So it’s all despair. We get a Brexit, of sorts, which with the current leaders means we get a continuation of neoliberalism. Or, we get another vote which may well result in continue with Brexit. Or the whole thing is called off and we remain in the EU, which means we continue with neoliberalism. Whatever happens we’re stuck with neoliberalism. In all probability we’re stuck with Tory dominated governments. For my simple 74 year old mind, which managed a 1st in Physics and a DPhil it looks awfully like a Fortan IF Statement where all the options point in one direction, ie neoliberalism for the foreseeable future or until climate change and/or a big financial crash derails the whole project. Whatever happens it’s going to be bad. Out of the EU we have an unpredictable future with uncertain trading relationships and an NHS that’s being dismembered and sold off. Inside the EU the NHS is being dismembered and sold off and our present leaders have no interest in changing from its neoliberal stance. The future looks bleak from whatever standpoint you take so what can be done about it? Probably very little so if as an individual you can’t do anything about the external situation, what do you do? I would say you should stop making your lives miserable by droning on about how wonderful the EU is. The simple fact is the EU is troubled. Greece and Italy and probably France are having hard problems. The Eurozone continues to falter and force the bloc into austerity and low growth. It doesn’t look like paradise to me. In fact, nowhere looks all that good and although every contributor to this blog has an idea as to what the solutions are it’s quite clear that they are not achievable within the juggernaut that the EU has become. The present debate seems very much like the prisoners in Colditz deciding that life in the camp could be improved by negotiating with the guards. Of course, our present Brexit deal looks a bit like parole. Other voices and blogs by sensible people like Bill Mitchell and Larry Elliot present a more balanced view of Brexit. I would prefer to look at what might come out of this from a more optimistic stance. I’m not prepared to make my life miserable by worrying about things I can’t change and I’m not prepared to brainwash my daughter and granddaughters into thinking that life is a binary choice and that only one of those choices leads to happiness. People have lived through far more trying times than these. Now Climate Change, that is something worth worrying about.
I simply do not believe neoliberalism is here to stay
Nothing that fails lasts
Neoliberalism am has failed
Inevitably – but I believe arguments that it’s on its way out any time soon may be optimistically exaggerated, unless triggered by a major catastrophe. Serfdom had a good run in England for almost 600 years (until the Tenures Abolition Act of 1660) to be superseded by Capitalism, of which neo-liberalism is simply an extreme laissez-faire ‘variant’. So, based on historical precedent, the prevailing economic model could endure in one form or another for another century. Who knows? The destruction caused in its wake is of no more importance to its protagonists than it was to the established church or feudal landlords. OK – maybe I’m exaggerating to make a point, but I think the Neo-liberal power grab will be difficult to dismantle. In France it took a revolution to end serfdom. While I can’t envisage pitchforks (viz. AK47s) or Guillotines, it will probably take a major catastrophe to hasten the demise of Neo-liberalism. Interestingly, serfdom never caught on in Scandinavia.
Just some late night random musings 🙂
The catastrophe is climate change
And mass deaths as a result
Richard
May I clarify?
I have been writing about Neo-liberalism my ‘post Lakoff’ stage.
After watching his lecture on this most excellent blog (and thank you again Andy C.), his language obviously framed my views and my thoughts turned to reflecting on the ‘stick-ability’ of Neo-liberalism – how it persists even though time has revealed it for the horse-shit that it is.
It is this ‘stick-ability’ that is the problem – and that does not mean that it is an acceptance that it will be around forever. More like it is going to be like removing a tough stain out of carpet, a sofa or the paintwork of a car. We know that we can do it, but it’s going to be hard work.
Absolutely right
But I think it is possible….
@Rod
Bless you for mentioning FORTRAN!
It’s what I started programming in in my first job at the UK atomic energy authority.
Hadn’t heard it mentioned in years
the environment (specifically the eating of meat & private land ownership), peoples health & money (private banks creating it out of nothing when making loans) are the real issues. together with the corporate mass media – BBC especially included – that keeps all talk of these off the agenda & brexit very much on it, but in its typical way ensuring that no-one really learns anything about it.
if brexit remains ‘the’ theme for years to come it’ll be very sad. because it’ll mean none of the other vastly more important issues are being dealt with. or am i missing something?
The Levellers had something right in that the fight was against tyranny, whether Parliamentary or King. Brexit is a ludicrous diversion. That we can’t ally ourselves in mainstream shoulders-to-the-wheel practice to democratic, green international relations has left me despairing on how the tyranny operates. There are only glimmers in media that there is a wide, constitutional crisis. If neo-liberalism has failed what of democracy? What has our esteemed education and culture brought about? May will demonstrate what she believes on this with deeply offensive patronization based on contempt of masses controllable through slogans. Oxford girl dun geography. No Germany it seems.
[…] By Richard Murphy, a chartered accountant and a political economist. He has been described by the Guardian newspaper as an “anti-poverty campaigner and tax expert”. He is Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London and Director of Tax Research UK. He is a non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics. He is a member of the Progressive Economy Forum. Originally published at Tax Research UK […]
Yes, what a hornets nest of hatred has been stirred up by Brexit. I firmly believe that many Brexiteers had never given the EU much thought, if any, until the referendum loomed on the horizon. Even now, with the amount of information available to us, the level of ignorance is astounding. Whatever the eventual outcome, I shall never see peace in our society over this issue in my lifetime.
Recent polls done in EU countries have shown a stronger than ever support for the consolidation of the EU project, in a large part due to the schock of Brexit, and since then, the spectacular and mediatic demise of the UK political class.
Even the authoritarian regimes in Poland and Hungary are not managing to weaken their people’s resolve to remain in the EU, clearly the European Regional Development Funds have had an impact…despite some very corrupt practises, some of the money may have reached the right projects.
The scheme developed by Putin&Co. to weaken the Union does not seem to work 100%.
His position at home is weakening. He won’t be targeting the EU-backed Baltic States for a while yet, preferring to concentrate on the weaker Ukraine to carry on with his dream of restoring Great Russia to its former glory…
This is what EU is all about for me. Defending peace within its borders. Weakening and challenging authoritarian tendencies within. Exposing corruption within its ranks, and pushing for institutional cleansing.
Sometimes we cannot avoid conflicts, setbacks, but we can keep going in the right direction.
Neo-Liberalism will eventually come to an end, maybe not in my lifetime, but it is already failing so many people I don’t see them putting up with it forever.
What will replace it, goodness knows, it may be better, or worse, but so long as people manage in peace, they’ll cope.
I’ve been watching Macron in France, it’s been quite a journey for that young man. Ex-Rothschild banker, self-proclaimed saviour of neo-liberal EU, now embroiled in a populist lead ( but also grassroots) revolt.
Still, despite his failing attempts at reforming a deeply conservative country, the majority of French ppl have no inclination to leave the neo-liberal Union he co-leads with Merkel. Brexit was a wake up call. One and only benefit?
They know that beyond the often corrupt politics, and even the deeply divisive economics, there’s never been a better way to keep the peace, and they can’t afford to take it for granted. They all have family stories to tell.
It’s weird that there are UK progressives who think it is naive to campaign for socialist policies for their own country but realistic to reform a deeply neoliberal and undemocratic supranational organization comprising 28 nations who have markedly different agendas, economic conditions, and cultural views.
I suspect it’s naive to make category errors about others
And naive as well to think socialism exists in isolation
How long for Europe to get over the coming Euro crunch? or for Greece to get over the European austerity and banking crisis? A generation?
But we are not in the Euro
Which makes your comment off beam
So.
Here I am reading the Guardian online before I catch my train to work.
McDonnell from Labour is talking of backing a second vote.
And May is talking about Labour over turning the ‘will of the British people’! What a surprise!
And we wonder why Labour has been so reticent! It was always a question of who blinks first. Damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
Labour have seemingly backed something that seems fair and reasonable to do and already it is being rubbished because of the toxicity of the issue.
Will people think about the warnings from the BoE and the Chancellor himself?
Or is May’s bloody-mindedness more in line with the grate (sic) British public?
What a situation.
On one hand there are UK progressives who brought Labour to 40 percent of the vote and just two points behind the Tories in the last election despite the media and most of the Labour MPs sniping at and undermining the party leader and membership the entire time. These folks who have made Labour electorally competitive again have also made socialist policies mainstream again.
On the other hand there are Remainers who are going to achieve progressive economic reform of the EU any day now…
You really are boring
My criticism of Corbyn and McDonnell (especially) is that they are far too right wing and far too neoliberal whilst their version of socialism will change little and has the environment as a footnote
And unlike true socialism it is nit internationalist
No wonder it is not electorally viable. Labour should have a massive poll lead. It hasn’t got it
Sad – but true Richard.
Why are things so close between Tory and Labour parties? It’s a mixture of what Richard says plus both parties undermining themselves – more of a tragedy for Labour and us out here who continue to suffer at the hands of the Nasty Party.
But Nicholas – what the Leavers don’t realise is that any post crash malaise in our society has been caused by sovereign Government policy of the Tory party since 2010.
The Leavers blame this on the EU – even though the crash caused a world wide recession EVERYWHERE.
So, if and when the Leavers get their way, they will walk straight into the arms of the nasty bastards that are the Tory party who – free of the ECJ and any vestige of a humanity to capitalism – will grind down worker rights, access to the legal system etc., for the very people who probably need it more than anyone else.
And, more pointedly, we will throw our lot in with the United States of America – the source of the last crash in 2008 – and whose economy is inherently unstable since it is more or less ran by the private credit producing banking sector. You have heard of ‘America First’ haven’t you?
So much then for Leave enabling us to have control of our borders and laws! I’d rather fight, and lobby Brussels than Washington. Wouldn’t you?
Pulgrimthem or loathe them, Corbynistas have runs on the board.
They won leadership contests in 2015 and 2017.
The were within a whisker of winning a general election in the face of overwhelmingly hostile media coverage and sore loser behaviour by the PLP.
Socialist policies are mainstream again.
Young people are energised and motivated to vote.
The Remainers have not troubled the scorer.
They’ve been talking for a quarter of a century about removing the neoliberal constitution embedded in the Maastricht Treaty.
They have made no progress.
It’s possible for voters to fire members of the House of Commons.
How do voters go about firing members of the European Commission and the European Court of Justice?
How does a voter from one country discipline a recalcitrant Ecofin member from another country?
The EU is an undemocratic schemozzle run by people who insist on reanimating zombie economic theory.
This is pure fantasy land stufff that you can spin at the PLP but the rest of us will laugh at
We know Corbyn did not win
And we know he has made no breakthrough asince against the worst PM in living memory – and well beyond
Get real….