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Richard
I’m surprised you’ve left Accept out of the potential referendum. Even if rejected by the majority, it is possible it has more Commons support than Leave. Unless Mrs May is deposed, her reputation(?) rests on Accept. If she’s still there it must be an option. If she’s deposed, the map changes completely depending on her replacement.
A choice of Leave, Accept, Remain seems to me a more likely outcome, which potentially splits the non-Remain vote. It also forces the hard-line leavers to offer something concrete if they’re arguing against both Accept and Remain.
I’m sure your finger is nearer the pulse than mine, but cling to a bit of hope.
PS Sean Danaher’s piece this morning on Progressive Pulse gives a too little considered view of the EU. http://www.progressivepulse.org/
PPS Just bought all your books and am half-way through Dirty Secrets – good stuff
best wishes
RB
I left it out because parliament will have rejected it
It has not rejected Remain or Leave (as I define them)
That was the logic
What is missing as an option is leave with a battle on the high seas and with the car industrys – one captures the imagination and makes good television Cod Wars mark 3. Expect the processing of trawlers in UK ports with the disembarkation of seaman to prevent flight from processing, Plymouth might do, with four star accommodation provided in Bournemouth holiday resorts and the debt secured on the fishing trawler moored in the port.
The other massive effect is on the German French car industry and its supply chains and the kitchen goods industry given VW, Audi, Rolls Royce, Bentley, Skoda, Ferrari, Lambourgini, Mini, , Mercedes Benz, BMW, Ford Gmb, and then the French – Citroen, Peugeot, now owning Opel, Vauxhall General Motors in the UK, Italians – Fiat.
Then there is the kitchen good suppliers Miele, Bosch, Siemans, Beko, Grundig and bathroom goods suppliers Villerroy and Boch, Grohe etc
When you consider a typical household spending in Europe its not hard to see given the above imbalances where Germanys €250Bn surplus per year comes from, from pillaging Europe and across the world. Given how shaky the finances of Deutche Bank are and gearing to the Metalworkers industry some disruption would occur to the German workers circa 1million unemployed in a Bavarian area used to stability and wealth. Ireland will be squealing like its cattle and held as a pitiful hostage and ignored by the EU emperors until a 25% chance it decides to resume back into the United Kingdom its natural geographical trading partner.
However given the example of the Suez crisis expect the lorry drivers to be leaping for joy if they are paid on a day rate as the demand for transport grows given the longer travel times needed.
The EU would obviously be concerned at the closing of the UK waters for the minor fishing industry and the war would inflict enough pain on both sides that a messy compromise would be agreed instead of the current shot gun wedding proposal.
The build up of tariffs owed by Germany/France vs UK even with a further incredible fall in the pound would begin to weigh on prices charged in the UK and lower demand vs them being replaced by alternatives e.g. new UK replacement manufacturers or Asian suppliers LG etc. As a big net importer of goods £10Bn /year those tariffs would grow quite quickly. Service industrys are much harder to put tariffs on.
Lawyers often talk of the pain getting to a level that both sides agree and we are only at the stage of potential pain whilst the EU ignore the injustice over the UK fishing rights trading, the unfairness of equal status for all EU citizens ‘who stop moving’, the gross inbalance of Germany’s trade surplus vs the rest of Europe, the loss of factorys and jobs to Asia to the rest of the world whilst the elites lap up the caviar and Belgian chocolate the poor are ignored.
The ostrich ass in the air approach doesn’t work well when the assumptions that the EU holds are no longer valid. The kick from the electorate will arrive eventually. Anyway thats my alternative prediction and I expect a 35-60% chance of that occurring.
With the EU failings issues 70% addressed then the UK can withdraw the Article 50 and resume its place in the EU having been yet again the regular fall guy as the only EU country that can speak the truth to the EU and call the EU a spade without the EU undermining the politicians effrontery for telling the truth.
The other chance being that
If the EU don’t fix these issues then quite rightly other will break them the egregious example started with France&Germany breaking the fiscal pact, the break in faith in EU Law will undermine the network of conversations and against the failed politician elites in the EU government. Then the UK can then wait for as Heseltine said ‘the EU to send gunboats up the Thames’.
A bad outcome and an undermining of the rule of law and trust that so much relies on including tax. The UK as the fifth biggest unleashes targeted business banking aid MMT, a bit of ‘state aid’, then resumes the empires links substituting products, filling the gaps of the EU tariffs and as the biggest city in the EU London carrys on.
Remember also that with the North Sea oil bonanza waning, reformed trade union laws, the UK can resume a manufacturing strength as we have the resources yet this time at a sensible exchange rate.
Something to add to the mindmap.