As I leave the UK for a couple of days it feels like the sanest thing anyone might do.
Our politicians still appear to be the only people who do not think we are facing a political, constitutional and economic crisis.
Our minority government is facing outright rebellion from coming on for half its backbencher who are not on the government payroll.
And where is the Opposition?
The rest of us are feeling powerless and even helpless.
Perhaps we need meltdown before the sanity of a second referendum is offered but I have little confidence about the outcome of that.
States rarely commit suicide. The UK feels like it is.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
There are links to this blog's glossary in the above post that explain technical terms used in it. Follow them for more explanations.
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
Richard,
I agree with your sentiments, however, the Government, along with its DUC mercenaries, have more votes than the combined opposition. There are, of course two groups of ‘potential’ rebels on the Government benches, and although this make make it possible for some Bills to be defeated, when the crunch comes they will not provide the vote for the opposition to win a vote of confidence.
Brexit will only be defeated by stealth and cunning. Perhaps the opposition will, or perhaps it won’t, have the will and opportunity to deliver it.
brian warshaw says:
“…… the Government, along with its DUC mercenaries,….”
…and Scottish Tories with no care for the people of the country they supposedly represent and the gormless Blairite rump……..
Yes – England – the self- flagellation state – that’s what we are.
Enjoy your time away and no doubt we’ll still be here when you get back.
And probably whilst I am away
A bit like when Denmark declared war on Germany and Austria and ended up losing the bulk of its territory. All driven by nationalism and an inflated sense of its own importance at the time.
What is rarely mentioned is the economic costs that the UK is causing our erstwhile European friends to incur, both now (recruiting extra customs officers) and in the future. Diverting political energies away from tackling much bigger issues (refugees fleeing from poverty and conflict, threats from Russia, reshaping European economies). Encouraging their own right wing nationalists, though France, Netherlands. Germany and Sweden have managed to avoid the kind of take over we have seen in the UK.
I could go on, but seen from Europe, the UK looks like a pretty unpleasant, unreliable and even hostile (listen to our government spokesman) place at the moment. And then we expect some kind of special deal? This is going to take decades, a generation change in the UK and a lot of humble pie being eaten before we get back to sanity,
And when the next financial crisis hits, and I see Skidelsky is backing Richard’s predictions, do we expect the European countries to rally round and bail us out? Or put up a cordon sanitaire to minimise cross-infection? After all, its been the UK that has blocked moves to constrain the finance sector.
Robin Stafford says:
“…… I see Skidelsky is backing Richard’s predictions, …….Or put up a cordon sanitaire to minimise cross-infection? …..”
From what I’m picking-up, no cordon sanitaire is possible in globalised finance as it is today. It isn’t going to matter where the spark lands the entire keg will blow.
A one-off, one month default on all credit card payments in the UK would probably do it.
Now, that would be demonstration of ‘people power’ wouldn’t it ? It doesn’t work when I’m the only person doing it, so the system is obviously not at ‘critical instability’ yet.
The UK’s constitutional and political settlement is so slow to change, with Brexit we’ve come to a grinding halt. the political system has vestiges of Feudalism as the UK never turned a corner on unelected or elite appointed people running the house of lords and an unelected regent not being able to provide a second view on what the PM is doing. Constitutionally, the UK never moved away from colonialism as overseas territories, crown dependencies and the City of London have very special constitutional arrangements that nobody else can understand across the world as they pretend to be autonomous, but are fully under the UK’s responsibility – leading them to be tax havens. Ditto for the education system that is still largely feudal with private school pupils getting ahead in workplaces not based on merit, but based on elite status – making british workplaces, top government people basically de-skilled and not the smartest or most representative people around.
Now with Brexit, the idea of falling back on either Feudalism or Colonialism, designed by Eton graduates and other pupils of elite schools who are completely detached from the real world (like the Dominic Raabs and Boris Johnsons out there, and Cameroon as well), attached to their historical and ideological references of past feudal and imperial order, rather than building a meritocratic and democratic society, based on a welfare state that was the European project post War.
Like you I’m not optimistic for the future. The political scene is so chaotic and divisive it’s difficult to imagine any improvement in the foreseeable future. Logically it will get worse and descend into ever more tribal conflict. Our 2-party system doesn’t make it easier. Across the board it appears that dissatisfied voters are shifting to the extremes on both left and right. Neither our nor the US 2-party system can effectively deal with that without resulting in increased tension. The Swedish election offers insights into how PR can more successfully deal with voter fragmentation. Major parties have to compromise and sit down with the smaller ones.
Unfortunately our flawed democracy is further weakened by an unprecedented paucity of political leadership and maturity within both major parties. If I had to allocate blame in any one direction it would have to be with Corbyn’s leadership of the LP because of his inability to bring down a truly incompetent Tory Party that has inflicted untold misery on millions of people and dragged the country into the prevailing quagmire.
Of course nothing is forever and shift happens, but objective critical analysis of where the country stands today on every major socio-economic issue, leads to the conclusion that progressive radical change will only emerge from the ashes of the status quo, i.e. ‘things’ will have to get a lot worse which, as always, affects most those who will be least able to cope. I don’t rule out civil disobedience triggering conflicts with the police and even military.
Expecting the Tory Party to come up with any acceptable solution is pointless because its entire history shows it to be entirely self-serving. When push comes to shove it will always put party before country. Therefore, the first steps towards healing the nation will necessitate: a) ditching FPTP for PR; b) Jeremy Corbyn stepping down; c) the LP forming a progressive alliance to offer a pragmatic, sustainable and inclusive vision for the the future of the country based on sound macro-economic principles. And pigs might fly. Probably wise to have a bag packed, ready to go.
Barista Рun caff̬ lungo per favore.
I completely agree with your analysis of our looming downfall, yet I cannot help my ingrained optimism, this Article 50 might still be taken back, I sometimes fantasise…But a backpack is also available. Un café crème svp.
A bit histrionic.
I think we will get a 2nd Referendum in due course. It can only be from Labour. To offer it now would be a gift to the Conservatives because they would characterise a/the bad deal as the consequence of the Labour’s offer and win through with their deal (or, worse, no-deal).
So the so-called lack of leadership is in fact a good strategy of “Six Tests”-> vote down-> GE and re-negotiation-> still not passing “Six Tests”-> 2nd Ref.
I wish I had your confidence
I don’t
Understatement of the month.
ACL says:
“So the so-called lack of leadership is in fact a good strategy [mushroom farm strategy 101: Page 1. Keep ’em in the dark]……..
of “Six Tests”-> [Brownian immobility strategy]
….vote down-> [majority required in the House]
GE [perhaps, but who would win it?]
and re-negotiation-> [to a plan which doesn’t exist or if it does is not endorsed by a public who don’t know what it might entail and which has no timescale and no precedent]
…..still not passing “Six Tests”-> [Brownian immobility strategy ensures this]
…. 2nd Ref. [On what proposition ? Stay in the EU or invite perdition….and who will be forming this government offering this referendum ?]
If this is Labour party idea of ‘good strategy’, I fart in its general direction.
We shouldn’t need a second referendum Richard to stop this process Richard, as it’s now known that the Leave campaign broke electoral law, to get the result. Which is why it is facing criminal charges by the Electoral Commission.
Given this, and the fact that outright lies were also told by the same people, any political leader worth their salt would declare the referendum result invalid on the basis that it was obtained by deception and fraud.
They would then go on to revoke Article 50, and immediately seek the agreement of the rest of the EU to this.
Comments anybody?
Agreed. Sadly, instead of any worth their salt, we have only those voted for by the chatter-brained latte-slurping electorate. As ye vote, so shall ye reap. Leaving the UK for a couple of decades, rather than Richard’s proposed two days, seems to be the only appropriate response to the current mess.
Richard you let your pessimism get the better of you with that suicide crack. I can see why you think we are in for a bit of self harming but suicide is really over the top.
And sick of tax dodgers, where is the evidence that over spending had any effect on the result such that the democratic wishes of the majority should be set aside?
Time will tell
If the UK does not survive – and it is doubtful it will – then I will be proved right
Phil, your comment is absurd. The Leave campaign broke electoral law, as well as telling brazen lies. If something is done by such means, the result should not stand. We are always boasting in this country that we abide by the rule of law, so a decision obtained by breaking it, especially in light of the profound consequences of that decision, should not stand.
This is even more the case as it becomes increasingly clear that the whole Brexit process is a shambolic disaster, likely to lead to even more disasters. If we had politicians of any courage or ability in charge, who actually cared about the future of this country, they would clearly state this, and act on it.
Your comment is just another feeble variation on the ridiculous ‘will of the people’ mantra.
“If the UK does not survive — and it is doubtful it will — then I will be proved right”
For the prospect of an Independent Scotland, Brexit is the gift which keeps on giving. Even the traditionally Tory-voting business ‘community’ can now see the writing on the wall. ( http://www.businessforscotland.com/independence-ambassadors/ )
Gove tells the (traditionally Tory-voting) farmers they will be much better off under the environmentally friendly Tories after Brexit with no suggestion as to whether there will be adequate money coming along to replace CAP; without which most of them will be out of business in their first season. Many will have no crop seeds. And no labour force from E Europe to do the harvesting if they do manage to grow anything.
At some stage the sea fishermen will realise that Brexit is an invitation to take early retirement having given away their boats at firesale prices or for scrap.
Project fear has kind of shifted its focus and direction in Scotland as realisation dawns, that Scots who didn’t vote for any of this can not even influence the process since they are not represented in discussions…….. let alone halt it.
Scots have only one way to go and that way is out.
Goodness only knows how the Irish will deal with the shitfest being dumped at their doorstep.
An Independent England looms. Am I exaggerating? I don’t think so. I see no other rational outcome.
As I understand it, if it had been a binding referendum, the result would have been invalidated by the law-breaking. But because the referendum was advisory, the result stands. In addition, if the government had been unaware of the law-breaking, the invocation of article 50 would have been invalid. But because the government knew that the law had been broken, the invocation of article 50 stands. Beyond comment.
Michael, that is the argument as put forward by their QC in the legal case being brought against the government by a group of EU based ex-pats. It seems quite absurd to me. If a government is aware of illegal practices taking place in such an important event, then it has every right to declare the result of it null and void.
For TM to accept the result even though she (allegedly) knew it was obtained illegally. If that’s true, we can kiss goodbye to the rule of law and accept that this country is now run by whoever can shout and scream and posture the loudest, regardless of whether they have any valid arguments.
If this is merely an argument to accept the result because they’ve only now found out about the Leave campaign’s dishonesty, but don’t have the courage to stop a process TM prematurely triggered, it is equally appalling because of what it says about our so-called leaders.
As you say, beyond comment. I agree with others on here; what kind of future does this country have with these wretched fools in charge?
Yesterday Philip Hammond appeared before the Lords economic affairs committee and was asked about the pre-referendum Treasury forecasts that predicted a recession in the event of a leave vote. Hammond responded that these forecasts assumed no fiscal response, no monetary response, and the immediate triggering of article 50, but as there was a fiscal and monetary response and article 50 was not triggered immediately the recession did not arise.
Before the referendum Osborne said that if there were to be a leave vote there would have to be a budget with massive cuts to fill the black hole in the government’s finances that a leave vote would cause. However, after the referendum Hammond chose to implement a small fiscal stimulus instead, including increased capital spending. In other words, yesterday he admitted that Osborne was wrong to suggest austerity as a response to an actual or potential downturn, and he admitted that austerity and no fiscal stimulus would have contributed to causing or worsening a downturn or recession, whereas a fiscal stimulus was necessary to avoid causing or worsening a downturn or recession. This sounds to me like Hammond is admitting that austerity is bad policy.
It would be great if he would be explicit
Enjoy the time away Richard. The rest of us will ensure the serial bungling continues so you can aim a few more kicks at it on return. I envisage a science fiction novel akin to those ‘Hitler won the war’ volumes. Mine is set after failure to agree any Brexit terms. Parliament sinks into the Thames and we are ruled from Brussels. Unemployment sinks to zero, wages and productivity double, and our secret service carry on arresting various Brexiteers in darkest Peru. Theresa May is found in a babbling state repeatedly asking why the bears there don’t speak English or kill for her home made marmalade. Shutting Stormont never seems to cause Northern Ireland any running problems, so why not a period of direct rule from Brussels, later democratised via a system devolved electronically to the regions?
I am guessing there’s a little humour in there
It seems to me both voters and politicians in the UK have over the years adopted a “knocking” attitude as an easier substitute for the hard work of gathering facts and reasoning about them in regard to government policies. This can be seen at its starkest in the behaviour of the Tory Party ERG group who haven’t published a full workable Brexit plan as an alternative to the prime-minister’s. You have to ask why and outside of the argument they have struggled to find “workable” arguments it obviously undermines their capacity to “knock” if their plan is exposed to a barrage of searching questions. The disinfectant or sunlight of scrutiny if you like! That the ERG group could engage in such prolonged and vociferous “knocking” has to be down to the incompetence of David Cameron and Parliament who failed to seek clarity from the voter in the 2016 Referendum on what general relationship terms the voter wanted with the EU if they voted Leave. This failure means there was no clear cut decision and a second referendum is required to establish what new relationship is required or whether on balance it’s now believed it should broadly stay the same.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-party-brexit-theresa-may-eurosceptics-jacob-rees-mogg-eu-leave-a8532621.html
When the lunatics are taking over the asylum;
http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/09/11/the-garbled-nonsense-of-jacob-rees-mogg-s-new-press-release
Brexit will be the humbling of the English. As they learn the lesson they failed to with Suez in 1956, namely: you are not an imperial power anymore, merely a nation among equals.
And maybe it needs to happen. Maybe going through a painful, humuliating cathartic experience must happen for the English; so they can rue their folly, and reject the malevolent English nationalism that informed Brexit.
Too bad for those of us English who were not seduced by Brexit and knew it for the mistake and con trick based on fantasy, fibs and racism that it is.
Unfortunately John, that humiliating cathartic experience of which you speak is happening to other nations as well, on the back of English votes, despite those nations voting to remain. If only Scotland, and indeed Norn Irn, had a Get Out of Jail card. Oh wait…
@ John
What I find hugely amazing is how most of the British have never really come to terms with the fact they had no moral right to impose their culture on other nationalities with the British Empire. Imperial Exceptionalism as a nation is still deeply embedded. Many, however, are deeply indignant that immigrants with their different cultures have been allowed to come here to live. Severe cognitive dissonance reigns! Perhaps national humiliation is at the end of the day the only antidote to rid the country of this tribal-centric irrationality!
Perhaps – but Fox and Gove are Scots!
Imperial delusions are not, I’m afraid, confined to the English.
Scots, Welsh and Irish were also builders of the British empire.
The Irish were conscripts, like the Indians in Uganda.
“And where is the Opposition?”
Opposing. But there’s only so much you can do when you are the Opposition because, by definition, you don’t have enough seats to be the government. Fanatical Remainers seem to think Corbyn/Labour can defy the laws of mathematics and stop Brexit any time he/they choose but are refusing to do so. And they have the nerve to label his supporters as seeing him as the Messiah while doing just that. Talk about projection!
Labour could at least be making the case against Brexit. But instead we get fairy story “six tests”, “Keir Starmer is very clever”, muzzling MPs who see the insanity…
And still such apathy from a huge chunk of the population….
Comfortably numb.
Best chance is a fudge deal which keeps us sort of involved with the EU, but still suffering for a few years. Then a second referendum when a large enough majority of folk want one.
Kick the can down the road for just a few years and lots of remainers won’t be with us any longer, especially if the NHS struggles as expected once the ‘immigrants go home’. Somewhat callous thinking, perhaps, but accurate in my view.
Not sure what the chances of a suitable fudge being allowed for a few years are, however. It would also give the most idiotic of Brexiteers (e.g. the ERG) the opportunity to loudly claim everything would have been OK if we had effectively become the 51st state as they planned.
Mariner says:
“… OK if we had effectively become the 51st state as they planned….”
Too late, mariner. 51st state position belongs to Israel and has done for decades.
52nd state perhaps….. ERG are living in the past in many respects.
This, of course, presumes that everybody’s voting position remains static throughout the course of their lives. But people switch positions. A few oldies might die, but there’s plenty more to replace them. And more old people than young. And there will be even more old people than young in five years time. So you might not want to kick the can down the road… especially if – as I predict – very little impact will be had on the country whichever way the Brexit wind blows.
A good series of talks from University of Greenwich here, starting with Gus o’Donnell:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf8wSPyYEPc
A recurring theme is how areas with critical industries, especially vulnerable to Brexit and major job losses, are in areas that have voted for Brexit:
Sunderland – Nissan
Chester – Airbus
West Midlands – Jaguar Land Rover
Derby – Toyota and Rolls-Royce
Wales et al – agriculture – Welsh lamb…
Cornwall, Humberside – fishing (where do their exports go…)
Did they not understand the implications of Leave? ‘Leave voters knew just what they were voting for…’
Were they explicitly misled? ‘Easiest trade deals in history’
Did inate prejudice against ‘forriners’ overcome self-interest? (Stirred up by smuch of the media)
Was it just a protest vote against Westminster and austerity?
If we don’t understand just what it was, we’ll not change minds. At the moment I fear that a lot of the debate merely reflects established political positions, when its its a lot messier and conficted. Illustrated by both Labour and Tories scrabbling for the UKIP vote
Robin Stafford says:
“…. Illustrated by both Labour and Tories scrabbling for the UKIP vote….”
That Labour leeched votes to UKIP, (when UKIP was supposed to divide the right vote) and that the Labour party will scrabble for UKIP votes tells you everything you need to know about the possibility of a progressive Labour government in the UK any time soon.
As No Deal Brexit looms prepare for civil war as mass sackings occur, house prices collapse and monetary illiterate Tory government imposes further severe austerity cuts affecting welfare benefits to make up for falling tax revenue.