I gather my friends at Common Weal are launching their campaign for an independent Scotland to have its own currency today. This was a contribution to that debate I made a year or so ago, but it's worth sharing again:
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It sounds like you’re building yourself up to attacking the Gers figures out this week ( today even iirc ) in the best way that you can. Did lee way get given to the sense of optimism that the figures will bring to the nationalist movement. After all, you can’t become independent without having a sense of your own strength, and whether you agree with the data saying anything meaningful or not, a lot of people will take the comparison to last time at face value and have a feeling of hope that the Scottish position is improving.
I am aware the figures are out today
I am also aware I may not get time to look at them
Surely an independent Scotland would wish to join the EU. Would it not therefore have to adopt the Euro?
No, it would not
It has to commit to doing so
There is no date set
There is no actual requirement to join in that case
Good luck with that if you think the EU would allow Scotland to join without adopting the Euro.
Regardless, it’s all academic as Scotland won’t be leaving the U.K.
Is Croatia in the euro?
I suggest you stop talking nonsense
This is a reply to Nottingham Carol’s post of 22 Aug at 10:04am, with apologies for late response.
She asserted “Regardless, it’s all academic as Scotland won’t be leaving the U.K.” Well, that’s that sorted then! I wonder what makes her so certain?
The whole question of Scottish Independence is a highly complex weave of disparate issues overlaid with political partisanship and can probably really only be understood with clarity by those living in Scotland. The issue as reported by BBC and the mainstream media across the whole of the UK is presented with a considerable Unionist bias which only tells half the story. The pro/con spit re independence is roughly 50:50, but Brexit has caused a move towards greater support for independence.
Is her certainty based on what she’s read or heard? If so, does she think England would never permit Scottish independence, or does she think that the Scots would never vote to run their own affairs? Or is it based on a study of the GERS report? If so, does she believe that GERS reflects the Scotland’s real fiscal position? If the latter, does she really think that Scotland, with just 8.3% of the GB’s total population is truly responsible for 31.5% of GB’s deficit? And if the latter, is it not just possible that Scotland might be invited to leave the UK? Mind you, this might be quickest, easiest way to demonstrate that GERS is an inherently unreliable economic indicator.
Assertions without justification are simply that – assertions.
Mike says:
“Surely an independent Scotland would wish to join the EU. Would it not therefore have to adopt the Euro?”
FFS, Mike, you are just trying a wind-up aren’t you ? Being provocative ?
From the frying pan to the blast furnace ? No Thanks.
No, I was not being provocative. I was asking a question that I genuinely did not know the answer to. “FFS” there is no call for an abusive response.
I’m sure the beancounters are going to be poring over them and variously and vacuously gloating about them for months if not years.
Some will be sharpening their Lakeland Cumberland coloured pencils in readiness to colour-in their graphs e’en as I write this.
They will be like the interior design consultants arguing about the colour of the stripes on the deckchairs on the Titanic. Some discussion pages on Facebook are going to become exceedingly tedious for a while.
Scotland. Yes it will need its own currency and float it – not peg it to the £.
1)Is ‘tiny’ Denmark in the Euro currency?
Indeed, what currency does the Danish state promise to pay its bonds in? How many Danes trade and then pay their Skat/tax in British Pounds/ or US Dollars? If Denmark, politically, ‘informally’ ‘tracks ‘ the Euro, how does its Foreign reserves play a role? How has Denmark delt with its serial (Argentina like) ‘Hyper Inflation’ problem over the last 20 years? Is the ‘poor’ farming north, Jutland, reduced completely to barter, or are they back to Viking silver currency? If you are rich and you try to drive a car boot-load of Kroner notes over the boarder to a German bank, does the Danish state turn a bind eye – because your are just a clever, ‘progressive’ Neo Liberal chap who ‘works’ in finance? Is it all, Denmark’s massive oil and gas reserves, which Scotland hasn’t got mate? Etc, etc, etc. If only their was a modern ‘Economic Text Book’ for the Righties here to read, that can explain both sides of the story of how Paul Samuelson’s, old ‘mixed state’ ideal could be run today.
Wait a minute, wait a minute, that would mean logically, there are/might be/ at least TWO ‘macro-economic text books’ that can be discussed in ‘good faith’ here, each with different problems, questions, answers and political focus. Mmmm. Well I never! If only RM knew all this.
2)I view the SNP leadership elite, like the Trade Union movement’s leadership in this country in the 1970s. Full of public rhetoric about full blown Socialism and the workers revolution next year, but ‘push comes to shove’, their underlying policies, a ‘just so’ rent extraction strategy for the leadership and union workers v non-union workers, or as the Jocks call it a ‘Devo Max’ strategy. Thus, anything, ‘Short of Independence’ is the never ending political objective of an ‘Independence’ party. Good luck with the contradictions in that one mate.
I wish I knew what you were actually trying to say
‘I wish I knew what you were actually trying to say.’
RM, 1) or 2) above, or more generally?
The best remark I had from a professor, on a paper years ago, was: ‘The great merit of Max Weber is that who would never have said anything quite as woolly as this.’ Back then I didn’t figure that it was one of his stock comments; changing the name as he went . Still its a good one. Feel free to use it 🙂
But won’t a lot of Scotland’s debt that it inherits from the UK then be designated in a foreign currency? How does this pan out with MMT? Does it leave Scotland as a vassal state to England?
Scotland does not have to acquire any UK debt: that’s international law
It is quite at liberty to say it will owe the UK in Scottish pounds for its share of debt at the date of independence
Richard, you asked “Is Croatia in the euro?”?
Presumably you must realise that Croatia is committed to join the Euro and is expected to do so before 2025?
Expected….
That’s the key word
And exactly what I said of Scotland
And what does Scotland do in the meantime? Have you noticed it may need to reoslve the issue?
Extract from a position paper produced by my company (on how to fund EU 2050 de-carb targets):
“the UK has an offshore wind resource estimated at 675 GW that could be economically exploited”
Foot note:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115303001 – The study reached the 675 GW figure by assuming a levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of up to £120/MWh. However, UK costs are now heading towards £50 – £60/MWh, suggesting that the 675 GW is an underestimate
Much of the 675 to 1000GW (est) is located in Scotland. It has the potential to be the Saudi Arabia of Europe with one key difference – as long as the wind blows the energy will flow – and not just energy – it would make sense to site petro-chem and primary & secondary steel production close to off-shore energy sources. The future beckons (& I say this as an Englishman that wishes the Scots well).
Mike
Might I suggest you send this to Common Weal in Scotland?
Richard
Mike, it’s not just wind power that has great potential: power is already being generated by tidal turbines in the Pentland Firth, although the pace of development in this field has been slowed by UK Gov policies on funding for research and implementation. An additional huge potential lies in the numerous fjords with large tidal rise and fall and significant tidal races on Scotland’s west coast. This is so far untapped and I’ve never seen any estimates of potential power yields. Some times the wind doesn’t blow, even in Scotland, but if the tides ever cease to be, electricity will be irrelevant, so harnessing the tides’ powers has to be a development priority.
Even solar power is being harnessed: the Isle of Eigg uses small-scale hydro, wind turbines and solar panels linked to the local Eigg-grid. It doesn’t require the sun to be blazing hot for light-sensitive solar panels to produce power. So, the potential for Scotland to be a massive producer/exporter of power is there, not just through wind turbines. All it needs is for the Scottish Government to have the political power (either through further devolution of powers by Westminster, although I think that unlikely, or through independence) to develop the industry.
Scotland could be the Saudi of the future…