I would love to think each day in the unfolding Brexit disaster will be the worst. But I know that is not true. After all, we are only in the phoney war as yet: the real thing has yet to happen and will, I fear, be so much worse than things are now. That said, yesterday does take some beating.
May effectively sacked her new Secretary for Exiting the EU and is to take charge of Brexit negotiations. That's not encouraging.
Raab will, instead of going to Brussels, take back control of the national larder as food shortages are now an anticipated outcome of Brexit. Project Fear has ceased to be, I note, as a consequence: it is now Project Fact.
And Jeremy Corbyn sang the praises of Brexit, saying it would mean we could bias government procurement in favour of UK companies when that is what every other EU country already seems to do whatever the rules might say. It really is time he caught up with reality.
Then, just to add to the confusion, the government published a White Paper that said the legislation for exiting the EU, which they have just fought through Parliament and which says it will come into effect on the day we leave will not do any such thing: 29 March 2019 is now, apparently, 1 January 2021.
It' all too easy to think, quite often, that Westminster exists in a parallel universe. Yesterday provided evidence in support of that case. But it also provided evidence of something else. Many suggest that politicians are not in charge in the UK: that there is a power behind the government that really runs the country. Some think it the civil service. Others have different conspiracies. I sincerely hope that those who think such things realise that yesterday provides the evidence that this is not true.
We are in a mess. Politicians created that mess. No one but politicians can get us out of that mess. It will have massive consequences. And there is no 'deep force' to save us from it.
Well, bar one. And that is angry parents. No one has more energy or capacity for potent anger than a parent wanting to feed their child and who is prevented from doing so. If that is the situation we face next year then the dark force in the country will be angry parents who will not tolerate being told they cannot do so because of Brexit.
In 2008 Alastair Darling knew he had no choice but save the banks because there had to be food on tables and there would not have been if he had let any one of them fail. Right or wrong, that's why it happened. It may have been the wrong decision for the long term, but it was right on the day.
A decade on and what we are seeing are all the wrong decisions being taken for the long term which have the potential to crash the economy in the short term, and to create mass civil unrest in the process.
Few think Alastair Darling a towering force in British politics. He got a great deal wrong. But he saw what needed to be done at a moment of crisis. Apparently no one with much power in British politics now comes close to having his insight even though ample notice of the crisis is being given this time.
We need to worry.
And candidly, we need to change government. But there is no mechanism to do so. And no effective opposition to replace the shambles we have.
And that's the real fear.
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Four decades of cooperation with the neighbours so we can try to live a better life.
“Don’t it always seem to go
That you don’t know what you’ve got
Till it’s gone”
Joni Mitchell
She was right
I read Darling’s book. I also thought he deserved some credit.
Ian Stevenson says:
“I read Darling’s book. I also thought he deserved some credit.”
Indeed, Brown/Darling did what was needed at the time.
But they allowed all the blame for the crash to fall on them and Labour, then abjectly failed to frame the recovery narrative and slipped quietly away into oppositional obscurity to concentrate on fucking-up Scottish Independence.
Some credit, but not very (bloody) much in my book.
Many suggest that politicians are not in charge in the UK: that there is a power behind the government that really runs the country….
It works like this….
Many moons ago, the incumbent majesty was getting hacked off with all the problems s/he had keeping the proles under control, so asked for solutions. Anyway, one genius came up with the idea of “democracy”. It was a tough sell but once it was explained, the majesty was chuffed to bits.
The conversation went like this….
Advisor: Give the proles a vote and let them elect their own leader.
Majesty: WTF! (reaching for his decapitation bell)
Advisor: No really: the big problem with the proles is that they blame you when bad stuff happens. Giving them a leader means that they’ll blame him. You’ll still be majesty but you can sit back and relax whilst they go at it like ferrets in a sack.
Majesty: Go on….
Advisor: You don’t need to control them, let them control themselves and batter the crap out of each other, whilst you sit serenely on top of it all being majestic. You still get all the money and land and respect because what they do to each other doesn’t affect you. They’ll still have to kow-tow to you when they want anything done and we’ll call that royal assent or something.
Majesty: Blinding idea. (Rings bell)
Majesty: Kill him.
Majesty: My idea obviously!
Assorted Toadies: Yes, your Majesty.
Indeed Neil, and to suggest there are not very powerful interests, not in government, who pretty much always get their way is not a conspiracy theory, which is a term I hate as it is used by the same powerful interests to “guide” opinion. Our politicians only reach power beholding to others making our democracy deeply flawed.
and to add: John Nelson’s article on Brexit. He can speak out now he has retired, I guess. I hope those who are not will find the courage. I am reminded of the old saying that for evil to triumph it is only necessary for good men to do nothing.
https://www.ft.com/content/e415828e-8e8b-11e8-bb8f-a6a2f7bca546
“And no effective opposition to replace the shambles we have.”
There is an able and stable opposition north of the border rendered ineffective by Westminster parliamentary simple arithmetic and breathtaking arrogance.
True
Phil McGlass says:
“There is an able and stable opposition north of the border …..”
“….with no ambitions to govern beyond its own traditional borders. rUK would be welcome to follow the prescription but nobody in Scotland’s Indy movement wishes to impose a reversal of colonial rule.
https://tweegingerdug.wordpress.com
Excellent from Paul Kavanagh today showing where we’re at in Scotland at this time.
But I could easily weep.
Sorry. Improved link here
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2018/07/26/this-is-where-we-are-now/
I’ve just read Corbyn’s recent speech. I can’t see that he’s singing the praises of Brexit. He says “If we want to reprogram our economy so that it works for everybody, we must use powers we have to back good jobs and industry here.” He points out that, under EU rules, UK governments could have intervened far more to support our own industries, but chose not to ( a point you yourself have often made, unless I am mistaken). He than says “we would seek exemptions or clarifications from EU state aid and procurement rules where necessary as part of the Brexit negotiations to take further steps to support cutting edge industries and local businesses………………..But whatever the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, we will use the powers we have to the full. Where there is a will there is a way and if we need to support our manufacturing sector we will find a way to do it.”
So, not the attack on Brexit which many might like to see, but not singing its praises either; just his usual strategy of leaving open as many doors as possible.
I know you don’t think much of the Corbyn team, but are you not at all hopeful that they might find some way through this mess that will benefit more than the 1% ?
But it was not an effective attack
Nor did it deliver a clear way out if the mess
Instead it accepted that the mess exists
I still like Jeremy
But I have massive problems with Seamus Milne and this smacks of him
The EU’s state procurement rules are the WTO’s. The EU & WTO enforce differently though as with the WTO it would require a dispute to be lodged.
Going to have to leave the WTO as well then.
My only hope is that Corbyn was sabre rattling about the EU as a means of getting a few more UKIP votes.
We have yet to see how Labour may deal with the country’s plight if they got in after a snap election but I will say that my faith in them is being stretched to breaking point even though we know that BREXIT is the most toxic/sulphuric issue in this country for generations.
I can only echo your comments, Richard – and particularly Corbyn’s woefully useless speech. He just does not ‘get’ the EU and seems impervious to any realisation of how it and its members actually work. He apparently remains a tabula rasa on which the Seamus Milnes around him can write the kind of (in this specific situation) dodgy language which flirts with exactly the isolationist, British exceptionalist feelings which he needs to be fighting.
I also fear that waiting for angry parents is a council of resignation, if not despair and I also feel guilty at times in joining in the jeremaids, because, as a Scot, I still believe I have an escape route denied to the rest of ‘U’K. Vernon Bogdanor’s call in the Guardian (ironic in some ways) for a two stage ‘people’s vote’/referendum looks a plausible way out – but will the spineless inhabitants of the main Westminster parties’ benches give it a chance? I fear that a sudden accretion of ‘Burkean’ spirit is only a dream and we’ll be left with the nightmare.
I have a horrible suspicion you are right
Oh! I love ‘Jeremaids’
Like the Janet and John, or Jack and Jill of the apocalypse…the Jeremiahs and the Jeremaids. 🙂
“….Many suggest that politicians are not in charge in the UK: that there is a power behind the government that really runs the country. Some think it the civil service. Others have different conspiracies. I sincerely hope that those who think such things realise that yesterday provides the evidence that this is not true….”
Well, Yes and No, Richard. The ‘powers behind the throne’ of government are not confined to national interest. Elite self interest is their business and the destruction of the state is not necessarily inimical to that.
Comments on your blog in recent months indicate quite clearly that the Civil Service is being widely ignored and sidelined, and under resourced.
What you say doesn’t one iota diminish my understanding of the ‘conspiracy theory’. Indeed your rebuttal of it strengthens my conviction that it is alive and well.
So how does it work to stop imminent national collapse?
The well off will be challenged by this
The City certainly is – the promotion of potential winners there is quite small overall
So I wait to see it come out of the woodwork and in what direction
I may be wrong, but I have never seen any sign it really exists amongst those who have been close to power
“we need to change government. But there is no mechanism to do so”
Fixed-Term Parliament Act:
i) government moves to suspend the Act, government moves to dissolve Parliament, government calls a General Election
ii) Parliament passes a vote of no confidence in the government, passes a vote to dissolve Parliament, calls a general election.
Take your pick.
Jonathan Sanders says:
What ?….and risk having to take responsibility for dealing with Brexit and a flattened economy without any grasp of how to go about it ?
Apologies in advance – I’m leaving this here as it is the most recent notionally relevant thread. It refers to Tony Blair’s company structure and your analysis of it in 2009.
Since when, of course, Blair announced that he was closing down the structure in order to form the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, which is a company limited by guarantee in order to perform non-profit business. (I gather that the Charities Commission had been taking a delicate interest in the charitable status of at least one of the charities operating under the aegis of the former Tony Blair Associates maze, and the LLP loophole you described in 2009 had been closed)
But if you haven’t been watching this one, Blair DIDN’T close Windrush Ventures down. He scrapped Firerush in toto, transferring its balance to the TBI. He scrapped Windrush Ventures Ltd and Windrush Ventures No.2 LLP, (now offering no loophole).
But he left the rest of Windrush intact. And this left Windrush Ventures No. 3 LP, the core of the operation, without a general partner, formerly No.2.
Could it be that the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change Ltd – limited by guarantee but unfortunately unable to pay dividends to its PSC, Tony – or some container for it – would fit rather nicely here?
Thanks
I admit I no longer take much interest in this
I assume Blair is not up to much good
Maybe I shouldn’t, but he has form
Thank you.
He certainly has form, in several areas. Putting it unactionably…
Best wishes for your continuing endeavours.