I suggested lasr Thursday that there would be resignations and was quite surprised to find that by Saturday morning there were none. But I just had to wait. Now David Davis and his team have flounced out. It is hard to see how Johnson and Gove stay in that case; I have a suspicion this is not the end of May's crisis.
And crisis it is. At least twenty per cent of her MPs will now actively want her gone. The rest will offer support only because, quite extraordinarily, she is the best option they have.
May's government has finished can kicking. Whatever happens Davis proves that the option of compromise with Brexiteers has come to the end of its useful life. Now she has to say what she wants or other options have to be looked at.
And this has to be done with a 29 March deadline in mind. Which means waiting for a September general election looks like a decidedly time consuming choice. But does she have an alternative? And would any new leader have any other choice?
On the greatest issue of the day the largest party in Parliament is hopelessly divided and effectively unable to govern.
And the opposition is not in possession of a plan that comes remotely near solving the problem, which only ‘Norway plus' does.
A general election appears essential and yet also hopelessly inadequate as a solution when neither main party appears remotely capable of facing the current political reality.
I am not asking that we remain in the EU.
But I am asking for a little recognition from left and right that the U.K. is not, right now, in a place where most people want to compromise much of its well being for political experiments outside any recognisable international framework for trade when, to put it bluntly, the reforms we need and require are possible within a Norway plus style agreement.
But who will say so, the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP and Plaid apart?
Maybe they should be talking about an active alliance to preserve the U.K., which would be pretty paradoxical for nationalist parties. But right now the strange has to happen.
Thanks for reading this post.
You can share this post on social media of your choice by clicking these icons:
You can subscribe to this blog's daily email here.
And if you would like to support this blog you can, here:
Buy me a coffee!
Coalition ?
GE 17 was a clear vote for coalition, or at least a clear vote for a coalition approach to the Brexit negotiations. Did we get it ? Like hell we did; we got David (Bloody) Davis who has wasted two years chasing a fantasy and now given up and dumped the whole issue.
Useless twat. (And the twitterati and calling it a principled resignation. I despair.
So who are the people with whom Theresa May has been hatching her proposals ? It can’t just be TM and Phil, the bankers friend. There’s always a ‘third man’.
The dark forces who dominate government look set to win again. The longer the government prevaricates, and argues with itself, then the less attention is given to what the EU spends our money on and who gets that money and the protections afforded by the Customs Union. Even during the whole House of Lords rumble the media focussed on the lack of democracy of their institution and not on the fact that they own so much of the UK’s farmland and want to carry on being subsidised by us for their privilege.
The divisions within the Tories ( and Labour ) for that matter are just reflections of how the neoliberal rent-seekers have taken control
I beg to differ
Lots not pretend we can live in a world where we can do what we like
That’s the preserve of neoliberal madness
Richard, is it your understanding that within a Norway solution UK can:
– control its borders?
– decide to run whatever size fiscal deficit it likes?
– impose capital controls?
– nationalise industries as it wishes?
– provide fiscal support to industries as it wishes?
– favourably support British citizens with offers of guaranteed employment, benefits and health care without being forced to do same for any and all EU citizens who arrive in the UK?
– strike our own trade agreements however and with whoever we see fit?
If it doesn’t then the Norway option doesn’t allow these things then I don’t see how we can achieve a true rebalancing of our economy, reduce inequality and start to address ecological sustainability issues.
Presumably you’re position is that QE can be used to circumvent EU fiscal rules, that appears to be the case, but I suspect without addressing all the other issues above QE alone would leave too many leaks in the money system and too lift control for ant UK government for it to reliably deliver on its democratic mandate. I suspect the system would be unstable unless it fell into line with EU “normality” and so we’d find ourselves in am unchanged situation.
We don’t control our borders now
We do run whatever deficit we want now
We have not needed capital controls at present – and work round it
We can nationalise now – the reality is this happens throughout the EU – we have just chosen to say we can’t do it
We can and do provide fiscal support as all nations in the EU do
We can do exactly waht you say re EU citizens -0 we have just chosen not to do so
We can have our own trade agreements now
In other words – why are we leaving?
All these things can be done
Richard, when you say:
“We don’t control our borders now”
I assume you mean we are not using the controls we have at our disposal. Yes ?
Yes
Non-EU immigration to the EU is above EU immigration, and has been, I think, for years (most recently around 100,00 pa higher from non-EU?). Do not expect total immigration to fall after Brexit; it will just be switched to non-EU immigration. Our ‘lack of control’ is far less a function of EU membership than of deliberate (Conservative) Government policy. It keeps the white vans busy, it depresses wage levels and it provides the Conservative-supporting agricultural sector happy with a good supply of (transient seasonal) crop picking labour; and fish processing with staff. Only this transient seasonal labour is an EU speciality. It is difficult to see how they are going to be supplied on a purely seasonal basis from further afield.
The cyncism of Government is breath-taking; but we knew that.
Agreed
John S Warren says:
” Do not expect total immigration to fall after Brexit; it will just be switched to non-EU immigration. ”
Because England’s former colonial possessions haven’t heard yet that Theresa May’s putative Commonwealth trading block is fatally compromised by a prevalent ‘hostile environment’ policy pervading the motherland?
Or they just don’t believe it perhaps.
While there is a wide spectrum of opinion across the 2 major parties, in such circumstances some level of compromise could generally be achieved in the national interest and for purely pragmatic reasons, however unsatisfactory. Furthermore, if the Government of the day had clearly lost its majority public support then a GE would be also be a solution. But there’s no evidence to suggest it would be a workable solution in this instance.
And I suggest that the mutual dislike and distrust between the Tories and Labour under Corbyn rules out any attempt to form a government of national unity. And in realpolitik terms, the Greens, Plaid, SNP & LibDems are effectively powerless.
What makes the ‘Brexit’ debate insolvable by any rational method is the intransigent minority of hard ‘Brexiteers’ who want out of the EU asap & at any price. These people, both in Parliament and the population at large, punch well above their weight and seem impervious to the damage they’re inflicting on the nation’s future.
In view of the above, it’s seemingly impossible to predict an outcome. Of course the world doesn’t stand still – least of all the remaining 27 members of the EU – and Theresa May has a deadline. Whatever the outcome it will surely be unsatisfactory and damaging to long-term progress. Looks like the UK will just muddle through. However, if England win the WC (which is more of a possibility than then a workable ‘Brexit’ plan) then all this political malarkey will pale into insignificance for the next 52 years. The reaction of the Scots, Welsh and N Irish will not be taken into consideration.
We live in interesting times.
Whilst some nationalisation is available under the EU it is moving to make this harder, SNCF are preparing for the need to face competition and I understand that this isn’t just a Macron thing but an EU thing.
I believe in nations co-operating but the EU is surely so bound into neo-liberalism and corporate interests, that it will make a truly radical agenda impossible and it is subservience to the EU vision that has helped see the demise of Centre Left parties throughout it’s reach
Supposedly competition is required
Wait for GFC2
This is not going to happen
Graham BC says:
“I believe in nations co-operating but the EU is surely so bound into neo-liberalism and corporate interests, that it will make a truly radical agenda impossible and it is subservience to the EU vision ”
There is a paradox in the way the EU operates. Essentially it has a socialist vision of co-operative endeavour between nation states, but it has been hijacked by a neo-liberal market philosophy.
The ‘Centre Left’ as you call it just gave up and joined the piggies at the trough when they discovered Armani Suits and that caviar on toast and goats cheese with caramelised onions was ‘better’ than fish paste and potted meat sandwiches.
In short they gave up and sold out. These are ‘Thatcher’s Children’ in our country, and ‘Reagan’s Children’ elsewhere. They’ve given up on co-operation because they have discovered what the ‘Right’ have always known: control is far easier to achieve.