As Harold Macmillan was supposed to have said, it's always 'Events, dear boy, events' that change things.
Well, Fallon has gone and today's reshuffle will be very modest as more wait to fall on their swords. A government without power is now to be consumed by sleaze. We have been here before.
But more important today is MAID: mutually assured interest destruction. If the BoE does increase rates - purely to bolster Carney's ego after he's promised to do so for so long - then we hit a potential tipping point. Of itself a small rise might be insignificant. But as growth begins to tumble it may in retrospect be the moment when people say 'that's when the mistakes really began to hit home'.
Macmillan was right on this one. What he failed to add was that it's always 'Egos, dear boy, egos'.
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Exactly, as well as the context in which they happen – which is as dire for a government as any I can remember. Over the next few months they have the budget to contend with, the EU withdrawal bill, the fall out from the brexit impact assessments and the December EU summit. Each of these has the potential to be the next crisis, these are just the predictable problems too!
Mike,
You could also add constitutional crisis to your list if any of the devolved administrations reject the Great Repeal Bill due to its implications of removing powers already devolved to them.
My dementia affected mother in law had to go to our local hospital last night. A & E was bombed out with people on trollies in corridors but the over-stretched and busy staff were wonderful. They had to wait a long time to be seen though. We were there from 3:00 pm until 8:00 pm.
I hope these events help this sort of criminal neglect to come to an end and for a better world to be formed.
On Channel 4 last night some ‘banker’ said that if Carney did not raise interest rates the markets would never believe a word he said again as if this factor was the most important one. ‘So what?’ I thought, ‘Go to hell’.
Egos matter, apparently
Amusing (though absurd) is the common implication that “the markets” have a single collective mind that is capable of unanimous belief or disbelief.
“Egos matter, apparently”
Apparently so.
Of course if my ‘this-is-what-they-agreed-at-Jackson-Hole’ theory is right market expectations don’t enter into it.
And part three; the continued easing by ECB still holds good, albeit at a reduced rate from January.
Everything on track. Hypothesis confirmed: they don’t know what they’re doing so they are trying comparative experiments to see what happens.
How much do we pay these people to draw straws?
I like your ‘ego’ variant, which is at the core of all human misdemeanour.
However, while the country desperately needs better leadership, there doesn’t appear to be any clear majority appetite for a Corbyn administration. Of course one would like to see a post-sex-scandal poll but I’m not confident that it’s a game-changing issue – as was financial sleaze under Thatcher. The Tory mantra is always ‘we’re the only party you can trust with the economy’, hence financial corruption is a stake through their heart. But sex? Mmm. Labour is not squeaky clean: ” ….cast out the beam out of thine own eye ….”. And the Tories are gradually getting the hang of how to manage (manipulate) social media.
May’s slim majority is always going to be under threat, and that’s a good thing, hopefully acting as a brake on implementing excessive neo-liberal nonsense. But, as things stand, under FPTP a Labour GE victory is far from assured; and I reckon the main reason is the economy. ‘The Magic Money Tree / Household Budget analogy / the winter of discontent’ are stories that still resonates strongly with sections of the electorate. I don’t even think the Brexit outcome, whatever it may be, will swing large swathes of voters Labour’s way, because it’s not an issue that sits neatly along clear party lines. In the short / medium term the big game changer would (will?) be another GFC – this time with a Tory administration in charge.
But still, a minority Labour Government would be better than the current omnishambles. Couldn’t be worse, could it?
No
“But, as things stand, under FPTP a Labour GE victory is far from assured; ”
It is virtually impossible. I have written to my “newly Labour” MP pressing the point that Labour must grow up and understand that the maths (Scotland, Lib DEms, etc) mean that making alliances before voting takes place is the only way.
i.e. the best-placed candidate to beat the Tories gets the support of other progressive parties.
There are digital means of establishing who the true “favourite” among progressive candidates is. In other words we run the true PR election first.
Please do likewise!
DW says:
November 3 2017 at 12:20 am
“But, as things stand, under FPTP a Labour GE victory is far from assured; ”
It is virtually impossible. I have written to my “newly Labour” MP pressing the point that Labour must grow up and understand that the maths (Scotland, Lib DEms, etc) mean that making alliances before voting takes place is the only way.
i.e. the best-placed candidate to beat the Tories gets the support of other progressive parties.
There are digital means of establishing who the true “favourite” among progressive candidates is. In other words we run the true PR election first.
Please do likewise!”
Spot-on DW. Absolutely correct. The FPTP voting system is only valid in a binary choice, so the binary choice has to be presented to the voter. The only way to achieve this is as you say to put the progressive ducks in a row BEFORE the election. (How many Lib Dem voters actually would have imagined that Clegg would coalesce with the Tories?)
The unionists formed a very effective pre-election alliance in Scotland in the GE this year on the anti-Indy issue. Pity that wasn’t the issue the election was about. SNP lost senior candidates on an entirely false prospectus.
Labour has got away with winning by FPTP too often to give up on it. They only win, however, by default when the Tories have disintegrated. Hubris has always dogged the Labour party.
For a party which prefers opposition to government this has served them well. It hasn’t done a lot for anybody who lives here though.
i suspect all the political parties have the same sort of internal issues, Labour havent exactly got away scot free around all this !
If you are not aware of it, I am not a member of and nor am I aligned to any political party
I get on well with several
I am aware political parties are not full of saints alone. Like every other organisation of any size I have ever worked with as far as I am aware
my comment was a general one, it wasnt a criticism or comment on you or your blog (you appear to have taken it as such). Also, I agree every large organisation is likely to have this issue, it will be interesting to see how far this spreads – will the corporate world start having these “disclosures” I wonder?
The irony is most events are foreseeable. You get the feeling events are an excuse for avoiding problems.
By the way it looks like it has just happened – the BoE has raised the ‘Bank Rate’ to 0.5%
The BoE’s official statement cites “inflation” but also recognises that Brexit and the falling pound (higher import costs) are driving that inflation.
This seems to make little or no sense as interest rate increases are normally a response to demand pull rather than cost-push (eg. Brexit) inflation.
Paradoxically (but predictably?) the pound has now “fallen sharply since noon – here:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/nov/02/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-mark-carney-pound-ftse-business-live
This is also bizarre: Brexit inflation is, of course, soon going to fall out of the system because it was (so far) a one off adjustment
In that case the inflation argument is just naive economics based on myth not analysis
OK this is now becoming a bizarre circus of self-contradiction
One minute Carney is saying “The decision to leave the European Union is already having a noticeable impact”. Marked slowdown in the economy”
Several minutes later he is saying: “We need those rate rises to get inflation back to target, and prevent the economy running ‘too hot’”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/nov/02/bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-mark-carney-pound-ftse-business-live
Right – so we are experiencing “a marked slowdown ” with the risk of “running too hot”. That’s it. I give in. I am not going try and make sense out of anything else he says.
As I said, this was a case of ego over principle, let alone logic
There is no other explanation
Economics is not my strong point but I am learning much from this blog.
They have raised interest rates. A sure sign that the economy is in serious trouble. Had they left the rates where they were that would also have been a sure sign that the economy is in serious trouble.
And you are right that the latest Tory resignation over a hand on a knee is a sure sign that the Tories are not fit to cover. It is in sharp contrast to Labour who have promised an internal enquiry into that rape allegation that they tried to hush up a few years ago.
I wonder when people will wake up to all this?
Too late
I am afraid that’s the norm
Didn’t they reduce interest rates nine years ago “because the economy was in serious trouble”?
Always “events,” never “principles”
“YOU MOVED IT UP! AH, DAMN YOU! GOD DAMN YOU ALL TO HELL!” – as Charlton Heston once said.
@ Richard
I know this is a bit off topic but would love to read you thoughts on the following article i found on the Equality Trust website:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2017/10/how-world-s-greatest-financial-experiment-enriched-rich
Basically sound
But it shoukd have mentioned People’s QE. I got a letter in next edition saying so
The David who left the Charlton Heston quote and the David asking for Richard’s opinion on the New Statesman article are 2 different people just for clarification.
We all know how damaging QE has been – and I think the BoE has acknowledged that. QE was started when they said interest rates couldn’t go any lower. So surely they should roll back QE (sell bonds) first, before they raise interest rates?
If by slowing bonds you remain reversing QE this, in effect, means cancelling money. Literally it sucks it out of the productive economy. Few more certain ways of tipping the economy into recession could be found. The Governor who did that would be choosing to crash the economy as things stand at present.