Thursday looms on the horizon. I was told by a journalist yesterday that I should be in good heart. Most of his colleagues, he assured me, believed Labour was in for a good night. Because I simply do not know I cannot share their confidence. The fact is that bizarrely, after an election campaign that they called and which has been so dire, the Tories remain ahead in polls. I am aware of the trajectory but the only cross that matters is the one made with that short stubby pencil. We'll know on Thursday.
That said there are things we do know now. And they are worth reflecting on. The most important is that for a prime minister who said she needed this election to give her a strong mandate May will come out of this election greatly diminished.
This matters in Europe. She been seen to have no strategy. Her plans have a habit of falling apart. She can't think on her feet. All she can do is duck the question. The leaders of Europe must be laughing themselves silly at the scale of her incompetence.
This matters for the Conservative party which she has treated with contempt: brand Theresa was what mattered. They will take a long time to forgive that.
It matters for cabinet government. When most in that cabinet have been kept firmly out of sight during this election you can be sure resentment is simmering.
It matters in the Commons. The Bastards on her back benches will run her ragged after this.
It will matter in the Lords. A thin manifesto gives them ample to chew upon.
Can May survive this? If she has a majority she will, I think, make it through Friday. But for how long will she continue after that? I do not know. The Tories aren't subtle with a leader who threatens their hold on power. May looked unassailable. She doesn't any more. And that is entirely her own fault. One way or another her days are, I think, numbered.
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I too would not be surprised to see a “night of the long knives”, but where could the Tories find an alternative leader who is not “damaged goods”?
Hannan and Mogg.
Hannan and Mogg? Hahahaha…………..
Not Boris the Turk Johnson, surely. There is even talk of the return of the snivelling obnoxious toerag, Gove. God help us.
The only figures likely, surely, are Davis or Rudd.
But remember the Tories in the 30s? There was one figure, hated by the Tories then for his constant opposition to the appeasing PMs Baldwin and Chamberlain. That was “turncoat” Churchill. But after the early disasters in the war, Churchill became PM – with the support of Labour in a coalition government. He became transformed into the “Saviour” of the party and nation. His treason against the party was forgotten. So who is there in the Tory party now who is the outsider, the gianft figure rejected by the party, who could yet become its saviour?
Ken Clarke. With Soubry and Morgan et al in support.
Yes, it beggars belief that millions still believe a vote for the Conservatives will improve the quality of their lives. Clearly she has some authoritarian appeal with a percentage of the electorate. Nanny knows best. And, sad to say, simply being a female will garner her some support. It says a lot about prevailing English culture. If she gets a clear majority (which she surely will) I would assume she’s ‘safe’ for the foreseeable future. As Stuart says above – who else could they put forward as an alternative?
‘Brexit’ will be key. However, whatever the result of the negotiations, she will be heralded as the nation’s saviour by the MSM. One can only hope and pray that the public at large will eventually come to its senses, but that’s a big ask, innit? I’m not looking forward to Friday morning at my local café. It was bad enough after the ‘Brexit’ result.
I agree. Any leader that can throw a 20 point lead in the polls in a liitle over a month to an opponent whom they have characterised as a Marxist and a Terroist sympathiser has much to answer for.
I suspect that there will be a Conservative majority but nowhere near the landslide May had gambled on. Having nailed her colours to the mast of ‘strong and stable”, every subsequent act has provem otherwise.
She is now weak and vulnerable. I would imagine Boris is eyeing up his chances and Amber Rudd is already moving into position. However, whomsoever takes over will have to deal with the poisoned chalice of Brexit. Voters will not forgive any party which makes matters worse for them economically and socially which, on Conservative form to date, seems inevitable. The next election will finish them off.
Looking at Rudds tenure of DECC is a little bit like looking at May’s tenure of the Home Office – failure heaped on failure. Dudd only got DECC because she was Osborne’s bag carrier. I had the pleasure of preparing a briefing doc on Dudd at the time of the Paris climate conf for a G7 country. not pretty reading. Although the client enjoyed it.
Private Eye also did quite an interesting “job” on Dudd & her families “interesting” businesses in one of its recent issues.
An election called by May to strengthen her position and diminish the principal opposition party has a very good chance of achieving exactly the opposite.
We do live in very unusual times.
But a note of caution. The polls do point to a comfortable Tory win. Maybe not a landslide, but the likelihood is that they will get an increased majority. Enough to stave of discontent with May? For a while probably. No one is going to move against her short term. If the Brexit negotiations go badly – which many predict – then the pressure will come on.
That’s the position I am agreeing with
And commenting on
It’s not just about Brexit though, is it. I mean, this might be the most important issue, but the Tories are generally in chaos on a number of fronts. They’re all over the place on income tax (PM saying one thing; cabinet ministers another re: whether the burden will be decreased on high earners). On fiscal policy more generally they’re completely clueless (during this campaign I’ve heard about 3 different things from different senior Tories re: the target date for deficit elimination. This is, of course, a relatively unimportant issue as far as sensible economics is concerned, but given that the Tories spent 6 years telling us that the fiscal deficit is the only thing that matters, the current confusion is staggering).
And all this before we even get on to the decimation of public services and their crazed plans to get rid of free school meals, make elderly people pay for their own social care and the restoration of blood sports.
When the Tories win a (smallish) majority on this kind of nasty, unpopular and inchoate rag-tag selection of IDS-era Nasty Party stances, what the hell is going to happen? Can we expect Mrs May and the 3 Brexiteers to rock up at Brussels in 2 weeks time with an aggressive (but crucially clueless) stance, unwittingly leading the country towards a UKIP-style Brexit which leads the country towards WTO rules and a massive domestic recession; whilst at the same time beginning to implement her crazed manifesto pledges which will (presumably) contribute towards the utter destruction of public services…
We should all be very, very scared.
Sadly I think you are right. Many leave voters seem to be believe the fiction that May will be better at negotiating Brexit than the Corbyn team. Simon Wren Lewis is worth reading on this GE2017 and the stages of Leaver grief:
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/the-stages-of-leaver-grief.html
I suspect May will put the Tory party before the country and a hard Brexit pretty inevitable if the Torys returned.
‘May will put the Tory party before the country’
Sean, that’s always Tory policy! Yet they wave the flag abstractly while the reality on the ground becomes a dust bowl.
There was, once, the One Nation Tory but that has disappeared in the mists of time.
The One Nation Tory died with Sybil
Despite the fact that once he had to be given a platform on TV Jeremy Corbyn came across very well, will we be able to consider this election result in any way “fair”? Or the election process a rational way to choose a government? The toxic lies and personal attacks repeated over and over by the overwhelmingly Tory newspapers and seemingly condoned by the “unbiased” BBC are only the obvious part of the manipulation of the electorate. I can’t believe that a lot of it isn’t even illegal. My friend received a personally addressed leaflet from the Tories with the slogans “Labour want to ignore our EU ref vote” and “Sky-high immigration would continue for years under Jeremy Corbyn”. That’s just one of five leaflets. Wasted money though – although unwilling to discuss policies or economics she will be voting Tory, as far as I can figure out, on the basis of what Theresa May wears and how nicely she has her hair done.
I think the media campaign has done what was intended and reached many, many older voters. I’ve received email jokes derogatory to Jeremy Corbyn and have been surprised at the way people have assumed that a mention of his name in a group is a cue to have a laugh about how awful he is. I feel very isolated in my age group, although my sons tell me that support for Corbyn is widespread amongst theirs.
Money, media control, manipulation, lies, is this how we want our elections decided?
Now that the young are getting engaged and the propaganda is being unmasked, this might turn ugly if the Conservatives get a majority. If people do not see the process as legitimate, there will be protests.
@Malcolm James
If Theresa May wins – even if big, but certainly if small – I sincerely hope there will be protests and a nationwide campaign of civil disobedience as is occurring in the USA with respect to Trump, in protest against a UK electoral system as flawed and corrupt as the Electoral College nonsense that brought a buffoon such as Trump to power,and looks set on rewarding a talentless automaton such as Mrs Maybe/Maybe not with “supreme” power.
I have frequently said that Blair’s greatest failure, worse than the illegal invasion of Iraq, and worse than his obsession with “deliverology”, and policy-formation on the hoof by working back from targets utterly remote from evidence-based development, was his bottling out over REAL constitutional reform – the failure to push the Jenkins Report to give the UK an appropriate version of PR (and by the way, with a 176 seat majority, and all the support he had in his first Term, he could EASILY have won a referendum on the Jenkins’ Report), REAL Lords reform rather than tinkering, and a written Constitution containing a Fundamental Law, permitting the striking down of constitutional monstrosities such as the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which I have always said should really have been called “The Abolition of the No Confidence Motion Act”, since the FTPA allows a Government to soldier on, and potentially survive a No Confidence motion.
The public have sussed out the fact that our constitution is broken – by dodgy money, an absurdly partisan press, a doctrine of “the sovereignty of Parliament” that allows an administration with a Commons majority (achieved on just 21% of the total electorate in Blair’s 3rd “victory” with a 61 seat majority!!!) to behave as an elected dictatorship, and above all by an erosion of the principles of fair play and ethical and constitutional propriety that can see a “ruling Party” erect SO many barriers against the idea of a level playing field, all set out so well in this site that has been posted on this Blog before
https://risingup.org.uk/this-election-stinks
Hear hear
If May is PM on June 9th, Liam Fox will be PM on June 12th after May steps down for health reasons. Just a feeling, but to me she’s given the whole appearance of someone just going through the motions over the past few weeks. Why Fox? He’s been pretty much invisible, and the American Legislative Exchange Council shill exudes the confidence. Surely a GP could only have our best interests at heart, right? And if May does go, then the new PM would have no reason to honour her on-the-fly promises and u-turns, and everything in the manifesto gets to bypass the House of Lords.
I really cannot see the Tories accepting Fox
They know he is an idiot for a start
Oh well said Richard . The same epithet could be used for every one of the former Tory front bench and beyond. Amber Rudd anyone !!!!!!!
Here’s Amber (C)rudd suppressing free speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEcMW6RmC_w
Whatever the result on Thursday (and I’m personally predicting the Tories will get a 20-40 seat majority) I believe this is the last hurrah for the Conservatives unless they do one of three things (and even these may not save them): 1) A Little Gerrymandering – and there is plenty of evidence that they will boundary change to suit themselves, 2) Major Gerrymandering – give the SNP what they want, become Little Britain without Scotland and do away with those troublesome 50+ seats, or 3) Genuinely move to the centre with respect to economics and social justice.
They are clearly capable of 1 – it will happen. 2 would have felt far fetched to me a year ago, but I believe they would be happy if they felt it would keep them in power. 3 does seem far fetched, but it is ultimately their only hope.
Even if they do 1 or 2, I think the demographics of the country will see them as a busted flush five to ten years from now. The youth will not forgive them for Brexit, and the route to the right that many middle-aged or older people took through home ownership and protection of personal assets will be closed.
The Tories may win the battle on Thursday, but they have already lost the war I think. It will be a long and painful goodbye, but it is goodbye all the same.
I think the point at the end of your third para vital
Agreed-the cat is out of the bag and the ‘magic money tree’ meme has backfired with the young. But what a shame that so many over 65’s (80%?) cannot see the alternatives especially as they are the age group that benefited so much from the economic expansion post 1945 and Keynsian thinking that lay behind it.
I’m 57 and I pray that my mind doesn’t ossify when I’m over 65 (cue updated version of Beatles!).
I think ossification is a choice
And I’m watching the ossification setting into some of the people over 70 with whom I spend much of my outside-the-home time, most of whom I thought still had open minds (learning about new areas of interest – Ancient Greece and English Literature being two).
But the meme about travelling to the right seems to be true of most of them, sad to say. The Ancient Greece group snarled when I suggested discussing ancient Greek political systems. But I dragged that theme into my presentation on the Greek dramatists – closely linked, of course, to a ‘democratic’ system.
Me? I’ve moved left…
Folks, watch this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALCtjP7XirU
It’s like real politics after living in a deep freeze for 40 years!
Just noticed it’s been taken down (I wonder why!) but, for anyone who missed it, here’s a slightly longer but less good quality recording from a crowd member (I thinks it’s the same Gateshead speech)- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34odHCICaVU
I’d settle for a small majority or a minority Tory government preferably the latter. In many respects I want Tories to own Brexit. I can just see the sniping from Tories and/or right-wing press if Labour actually take it on. Tories seem to want the hardest of Brexits and anything less would be classified as a sell out.
The down side though will probably catastrophic for nearly everybody else.
to be fair he speaks with passion and no script,may can,t say good morning without one.
A brilliant column by Marina Hyde in the Guardian today pointing out that the Tories have realised “…how shall I put it, there is something of the shite about her”
Amber Rudd is by no means certain to retain her seat in Hastings and Rye. I wonder if David Davies might finally take the helm. I’m pretty sure that Theresa May’s anointment was simply to prevent Boris because surely the powers that be must have known what she’s like…. It is fair to say that the Conservative Home activists are tearing their hair out over her performance.
Rather than head scratching about who will lead the Conservatives, I’m more interested in who will lead the Labour Party in five years. Despite predictions, Corbyn has had a good campaign and the public has shown that it is ready to vote for something different and more left-wing. Whether that can be branded “socialism” I’m not sure, but it’s certainly not the “new Labour” way.
Unfortunately, I fear we’re going to have hell over the next five years. Rather than beating themselves up, as the left has done since 2010, I hope they can come up with a “return strategy”, just as the Labour government did before 1945.
People will be ready for it, especially if they become more knowledgeable. I know people like Richard are working flat out to make that happen, because I keep getting little videos of him on my Twitter feed :-).
I live in an ultra-safe Conservative seat and always thought I was a bit of a loner. However, I’ve recently joined a Progressive Alliance group and have been really surprised how many people there are with broadly similar views. We have Labour, LibDem and Green voters and we really have discovered that we have more in common. Unfortunately, it’s too late for this election, but I think we have the motivation to move forward.
These are generally well-educated, “comfortable” people in their 30s, 40s and 50s. It’s really surprised me that they know very little about politics, economics or even current affairs, but they’re incensed by threats to human rights and the environment. They’re being personally affected by cuts to education, the NHS and the police.
I’m quite excited by being involved with a grassroots movement – it will certainly keep me busy in my dotage! If it takes off, I might be begging for some help, if anybody has any experience of anything like this.
Sorry to ramble. I’m trying to remain upbeat.
I think your comment about what people know is fascinating
The reality is people with social concern have become single issue campaigners over many tears and ha list the big picture
That is what has to be reclaimed
What I completely fail to get us how older people can be so committed to voting for the Tories, yet depend more than any other demographic on a well-funded and well functioning NHS.
Cognitive dissonance on steroids – or perhaps that should be statins!
In response to ‘what people (think they) know’………..
I may have said something along these lines before my observation is that the working (class) are lead very much by the media these days. I work with people who swear blind that the Daily Mil is the Book of Truth.
Coming from a working class background myself I suppose it is OK for me to sneer at my hinterland. And my Father was a trade unionist and a socialist and much of what he said would happen has done so far.
But as you may remember I managed to go to university eventually as a mature student and have studied up to MA level.
So these days I surrounded by an awfully lot of affluent and supposedly bright middle class folk who have been to universities supposedly better than the ones I have been to.
My indictment of many of this middle class is that they are very good at using their education and ability to increase their own wealth. However, their general awareness of how the world really works is no better than the working class. I have found this surprising and disappointing.
This ability to unquestioningly induct neo-lib bullshit when they have – through their educations – been given the tools of critical analysis is beyond me.
Maybe they are too bust enjoying their wealth? They are certainly not asking enough questions in my view.
I am too scarred by the 1992 election and 2015 to say anything at the moment. Friday morning is where the truth will be known. I’m not even keeping my fingers crossed. It’s not worth it.
But I agree that there is something in the air and it is because that Labour has stopped trying to be like the Tories. Albeit (maybe) too late.
This blossoming of real Labour under Corbyn has aided the revelation of the fact that because of Tory mis-rule (the pitting of sectors of society against each other for example and the austerity policies) this is a very divided nation.
I do not think that Europe are laughing however. I think that they are horrified – I would be. At one time Britain was being touted as the leader of the new right-wing world and that our malfunctioning form of democracy was somehow going to infect Europe. Thankfully common sense seemed to prevail but the threat lingers.
Great post from Andrew Dickie BTW – thank you. If we do not get the result we would like, he has shown the way.
Of course I meant ‘busy’ and not ‘bust’ in my contribution above.
As you can tell coming from a working class background to a middle class one is always going to be a rather permanent transition – for me at least!
I am so looking forward to the 10pm exit poll tomorrow, all this Corbyn surge will be shown to be what it is……….pilling up big majorities in safe seats as a way of beating the Miliband vote share and saving himself!
When the Tories get a 100 seat plus majority do you think they or anyone else will care about the campaign?…..It will be about the Tory win and Labour’s civil war.
You can go on and on about what this means or that means for the Tories but the fact is you are going to have to live with a five year term Tory majority.
You couldn’t even hold your nerve and stay against Corbyn, you had to fold at the last minute, you are a leaf in the wind!
That’s not even worth commenting on
The Tories really DO live up to their current non-Leader’s description om them as “the Nasty Party”, don’t they, almost drooling over the amount of suffering they have caused, and will continue to cause, until stopped. And one day they WILL be stopped – dead;
True
Here’s my best guess:
May stands a good chance of winning but by a slender majority – Middle England has woken to considerations of its grandchildren and its old age with no NHS, realising we are no longer on a roller coaster to the stars, but not sure why. As you say, the Tory party will play out its internal spilt; May will last only a short time and the financial ‘heavies’ for whom the competitiveness of the UK depends upon its ability to host capital will either misread the public and attempt another May over whom they have greater leverage, or get behind one of their own. If they trust the public their best bet would be Ken Clarke.
The Labour party will either surprise us or lose having given pause for thought. Either way it will go through a period of factional in-fighting between those still convinced by the ‘neo-liberal lite’ model, the successors to the industrial Trades Union leaders, and the various radical elements. The future of democracy is clearly swinging towards direct, distributed, and digital, but is awaiting the ‘white wire’ generation to enact it. Those in the Labour party who have twigged this will need time to experiment and evolve new forms. The battle will be over who controls and owns the tech infrastructures.
There will be a phase of shouting and screaming and some intense ‘theatre’ – some of which will be extreme – to let off steam, whoever wins. Don’t get distracted.
Blair will instigate a new party, backed by Silicon Valley tech and enabled by a working knowledge of global political transactions. He probably won’t lead it himself. I would guess at another election before full term.
The structural architectures underpinning this election is reminiscent of that in play around 1906 – although we’ve hit the wave a bit too early to expect a landslide to the left. Political structures were at the time coming to terms at a deep level with tech enabled global financial and information mobility, distributed wealth, and a diversifying of political engagement across the population. It paved the way for the first grassroots penetration of the governance of the country, with universal primary education, and national insurance. I think general progress will continue in this direction, but on a global playing field and with sharp setbacks, of which I sincerely hope tomorrow will not be one.
I think your reference to 1906 really interesting
I am not expecting change today
But I am expecting it will happen