Politics Home reports this morning that:
The YouGov survey for The Times shows backing for Jeremy Corbyn's party has soared by five points to 38% in the past week.
Over the same period, Tory support has slipped by five points to 43% - meaning there has been a 10-point swing to Labour.
Significantly, the poll of 2,052 voters was carried out after the Manchester bombing, suggesting Theresa May has had no boost from being able to make several appearances as Prime Minister while the election campaign was suspended.
First the words of caution. This is an opinion poll. And it is two weeks until the election. And May would still have a majority.
Now the words of hope. May could not govern with a majority of two: the Tory back benches would make her life impossible.
Then the warnings. Brexit will be an absolute shambles in this case.
And there are also the T&Cs. May has proved her ability to blow a massive poll lead. We don't know if that is real or not yet, although two polls show the trend. But, and it is a very big but, with a majority of two there is still not an alternative government in waiting. Labour would not be two behind: the SNP and all other parties will still be there two. Effective opposition will, in this case, require co-operation around an anti-austerity, pro-co-operation with the EU agenda to suggest a real alternative for the people of this country. Is that possible? I do not know.
In other words, contain your excitement.
But for democracy alone this is very good news.
And for the country it is better still. Even if May does still win, just.
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From where I’m sitting I see a lot of hope amongst Labour supporters who feel that the manifesto and Corbyn’s Labour are much more genuine and easier to differentiate from the Tories than Blair’s New Labour.
There is however a hard core of Daily Mail readers who will not cut Labour any slack at all and simply cannot believe that Labour can do what they have set out to do in their manifesto – even though we know they could do much more if they wanted to.
I too will be voting Labour because I wish to support their manifesto so that even after the election those ideas are retained in one of our biggest parties.
I would love to see a reduced Tory majority – that would be a good result for me too. My only worry there though is that such a result would see May deposed and a certain Mr Osbourne might be drafted in to steady the neo-lib TINA brigade in the Tory party.
The election result could be more interesting that we expect but we must never under estimate the Tories – their fund raising, clever use of election expense rules and the way in which they use social media all give them an edge.
‘Mr Osbourne might be drafted in’
I seriously doubt it, the man that was so illiterate he thought he could get a surplus in one parliament -I think his incompetence was so manifest there is not future for the oik.
I’ve read rumours on social media that Liam Fox will be replacing May after the election. If that’s the case, expect American Legislative Exchange Council of Atlantic Bridge infamy to be calling the shots. A truly terrifying prospect.
Liam Fox is one of the most brain dead people I have ever met
Much as it would be nice if May didn’t benefit from this needless election, I’m not sure that I trust the polling at all.
Any hope of an increased Labour vote share has to be predicated on the young voting in much greater numbers than usual.
I am told this all weighted in now….
I am not convinced that Theresa May has been able to appear more prime ministerial as a consequence of these events.
Watching the BBC News yesterday it was good to see the Queen making it up to Manchester to see the victims. I kept wondering when Theresa May would finally make it and couldn’t understand why she was showing no interest. In actual fact according to some of the papers she had already been but the BBC news didn’t cover it, which is difficult to understand when the Queen received lots of coverage for doing something similar yesterday.
Theresa May has appeared completely wooden throughout.
While of course it’s good to see the gap closing, I tend to agree with Bendict Spence in today’s Indie – https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-opinion-polls-narrow-lead-general-election-peter-hitchens-a7755286.html.
Let’s be clear, I am not suggesting a Labour win
I do think a landslide may be off the cards
And that is very good news
I agree, and I must say, it gives me some pleasure to see the hubris-ridden and bloatedly arrogant Tories having to change underwear rapidly!
May looked and sounded incompetent and the Empress’ New leather Pants has been revealed!
Unfortunately, the BTL stuff keeps bringing up Government debt instead of private Debt so the Tories may still benefit from this inversion of reality.
If Labour were to win (which will be a good windfall for the person who bet £10,000 on it when the odds were much worse for Corbyn) it would be a massive historical event worthy of street parties. But I agree with Richard, if the polls reflect any underlying reality it is good for democracy and a significant dent in the neo-lib armour.
The IFS analysis of the manifestos is out.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Presentations/Rob%20Joyce%2C%202017%20General%20Election%2C%20manifesto%20analysis.pdf
The charts speak for themselves. Have a look at page 17. Under Conservative plans everyone is going to be poorer but the poorer you are, the worse it gets. Why would anyone vote for that? The next page shows that Labour is better but actually only the Lib-dems are close to being distributionally neutral. In fact, there is a strong case to be distributionally progressive as this is more likely to raise all boats. As the Tax Justice Network podcast pointed out we should be following the example of Sweden not the US.
Charles
I will take a look
Are you blogging it?
Richard
See here.
http://www.progressivepulse.org/uncategorized/graph-of-the-day/
Thanks for the nudge.
I will tweet
Things have got very interesting. The polls are definitely narrowing.
Corbyn is enjoying a good campaign. I thought he may fall apart under scrutiny but his image is improving and more people are looking at him sympathetically. The manifesto hit a lot of right notes and has given Labour a solid base to argue from. A credible alternative is on offer, with a lot of things a lot of people like.
May has proved awful, which was to be expected and explains why she has been so carefully stage managed. The Tories manifesto own goal has done their credibility no good whatsoever.
So far, Labour have won the campaign hands down.
But……there are still 2 weeks to go and I fear the Tory attack on Corbyn will intensify focusing on defence, security and foreign affairs where he is vulnerable. Difficult to know how the current situation will play into the election, but it may be a net vote loser if Corbyn is seen and portrayed as weak on security.
There’s something odd happening here though. In my area, Labour are defending 2 seats that we are told are under considerable risk of being lost to the Tories. In another marginal constituency close by we are told that it is very unlikely to go to Labour and party members have been encouraged to put their efforts into trying to save the seats currently held. We also hear from a lot of activists that they expect to lose a number of safe seats, particularly in the North and Midlands. There does seem to be a bit of a disconnect between national polls, suggesting the gap closing, and local campaigns which warn of some terrible reverses.
We wont know until 9 June what the real picture is.
I shall not be voting Labour although I agree with their programme up to a point. Why? Because they continue to act tribally. They refuse to co-operate with other anti Tory parties. They are even putting up a candidate against Caroline Lucas! Ok, so they might win the election and form a government and do some of the things I approve of, rebuild the welfare state. Then later the pendulum swings again and the Tories dismantle what has been done. And all because the present Labour establishment, inspite of JC, still think of Britain as a two party state and they are from time to time going to be number one.